Parties hoping for higher ambition on mitigation — reducing emissions of greenhouse gases — left the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, last week disappointed, after their attempts to reach an ambitious outcome were thwarted. Eyes now turn to next year's summit in Belem, Brazil, where an uncertain geopolitical context and US unwillingness to engage could make mitigation commitments all the more difficult to achieve.
The conference achieved the operationalisation of article 6 of the Paris agreement, which allows for international trading of carbon credits. A new climate financing goal to follow on from the $100bn/yr promise for 2020-25 was agreed, although the amount on offer and terms left recipient countries deeply disappointed.
Developed countries had pushed for the conference's outcomes to recommit to and build on the historic pledge made at last year's Cop in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. But the declaration of host Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev that fossil fuels are a "gift from god" may have set the tone for the following two weeks of negotiations.
Hopes alighted on two texts to have Dubai outcomes reflected at Baku — the UAE dialogue on the global stocktake and the mitigation work programme (MWP).
But parties fundamentally disagreed on what these texts should include.
An "agenda fight" on the first day of the conference caused the opening plenary to be interrupted, with parties disagreeing on whether the global stocktake should be classed under matters related to finance. A fudge was agreed, leaving the text under finance, but with a footnote. This would "provide reassurance that the placement does not prejudge the outcome," Cop president Azerbaijan's Mukhtar Babayev said.
The first draft text, which came out near the beginning of the second week, still contained diametrically opposed visions on what the dialogue could consist of.
Reciprocal accusations of cherry-picking flew. Saudi Arabia insisted that "the scope of the dialogue is on finance, and [the draft text] is advancing mitigation-centric cherry-picking." The Arab Group would "never accept" a text centred around positions which attempt to draw mitigation into the UAE dialogue, Saudi Arabia said.
New Zealand claimed that the UAE dialogue was advancing on all elements except mitigation, and said such cherry-picking was unacceptable.
Parties could not reach agreement, rejecting the final draft presented in the early hours of 24 November, two days after the official end of the summit. Developed countries criticised what they called a lack of ambition, with Switzerland saying the text contained "attempts to backtrack on the commitments taken last year", and Australia saying "some bodies have sought to slow or stymie discussions." Vulnerable developing states opposed the text too, with Fiji calling the result an "affront" to the Paris agreement.
The mitigation work programme (MWP) text — the result of a workstream set up at Cop 27 in Egypt to provide a forum for discussing means to reduce emissions — was gavelled through without objections, but significantly watered down from drafts. The final text excised references in the preamble to temperature targets and net-zero carbon emissions, did not refer to fossil fuels, and mentioned emissions reductions only in specific contexts.
The MWP final text did not provide guidance or encouragement for high ambition on the upcoming round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the documents in which states set out their climate goals for the coming decade. States have until February 2025 to publish the new versions of these documents, which will set out their plans for emissions reductions to 2035.
Instead the text highlighted their "nationally determined" nature, a warning against attempts to impose top-down targets on emissions reductions on other states.
Other initiatives on mitigation appeared to fall by the wayside. Azerbaijan in July announced its plans for a $1bn "climate finance action fund" to be provided by fossil fuel-producing states and firms. But the plan received no more mention at Baku. Another presidency pledge, to increase global power-sector energy storage and build or refurbish 25mn km of grid infrastructure made an appearance in a draft UAE dialogue text, but was cut for the final, non-adopted version.
The outcome of Cop 29 leaves a "mountain of work" to be done at the next Cop in Belem in 2025, according to UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell. Countries will have published their latest NDCs by then, but without the spur of a strong outcome from Baku pushing towards high ambition. Developed countries had already set their sights on an ambitious outcome on mitigation in Brazil, and the lack of reinforcement of the Dubai outcome this year will make that all the more difficult to achieve.
The likely role of the US in next year's talks offers little consolation. The election of Donald Trump in the weeks before this Cop opened threw a spanner in the works. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement during his last term, and has indicated his intention to do so again. But with the withdrawal process taking one year from notification, and Trump not due to be inaugurated until January, the US will once again be present next year, but probably as an unwilling partner.
