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Viewpoint: EU PVC margins to hold below average in 2025

  • : Petrochemicals
  • 24/12/18

European polyvinyl chloride (PVC) margins are likely to remain subdued in 2025, with a repeat of the sluggish demand and rising ethylene costs seen in 2024.

Weakening European PVC consumption throughout 2024 was mainly underpinned by lower construction activity, a key demand driver. Construction purchasing managers index (PMI) data, compiled by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), show the eurozone construction PMI for 2024 peaked in October at 43.0, still way below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion.

PVC market participants are cautiously optimistic that recent declines in interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) may help stimulate demand for home-builds in 2025, and improved PVC demand will follow. The ECB reduced rates three times in 2024, to 3.25pc. Rates may continue to ease in the short term, but as witnessed in 2024 this would take time to filter through to European PVC demand.

Because of this, buyers are contemplating either maintaining or reducing contractual PVC volume commitments for 2025, noting struggles with passing raw material costs to customers. Anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on s-PVC imports from the US and Egypt helped to reduce excess supply in 2024, and while this is likely to continue into 2025 there is limited interest from buyers to source additional supply because of lower demand.

Asian s-PVC imports remained minimal, with volatility in freight costs and longer lead times likely to suppress buying interest into 2025.

Re-balancing act

Domestic PVC producers focused on reducing inventories and operating rates for much of 2024 to keep the market balanced, with average operating rates between 60-70pc for s-PVC production and at the higher end of the range for specialty grades.

But re-balancing proved to be a slow process in light of weakening demand, forcing European producers to keep operating rates and margins low for much of the year.

Argus calculated s-PVC net production margins, based on feedstock ethylene costs in northwest Europe, averaged around €287.04/t between January-November 2024, lower by €109.04/t than during the same period in 2023 and around €73.40/t lower than the Argus 2015-23 average.

Easing electricity costs in 2024 helped to suppress further PVC margin loss, but demand weakness throughout the year remained in favour of buyers as contract prices settled predominantly below the implied ethylene cost. With European ethylene prices likely to increase and PVC demand expectations suppressed throughout 2025, there could be another year of below-average margins for PVC producers.

Argus assessed the December suspension PVC (s-PVC) preliminary contract marker for northwest Europe at €1,120/t on 20 December, reflective of a preliminary contract delta for December at minus €5/t. This is comparable to an ethylene monthly contract price (MCP) movement of minus €7.50/t for December.

This raises the possibility of further supply consolidation in Europe to re-balance the market in the medium term, with smaller producers announcing potential closure of PVC production units in central and eastern Europe in 2025. Others plan to mothball some specialty PVC production lines, while others are seeking import licenses to supply PVC into emerging markets such as India. This is difficult to achieve because of cost-competitiveness.

A rise in regional construction activity, and therefore PVC demand, will remain the quickest way to re-balance the market, helping to raise operating rates and margins back to above-average levels as buyers commit to more contractual volumes.

Integrated s-PVC NWE net margins €/t

Eurozone construction PMI Index

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24/12/18

Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel

Viewpoint: Japan eyes methanol as marine bridging fuel

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japanese demand for methanol as an alternative marine fuel is expected to increase, especially after 2027, but it is likely it will mainly be used as a transition fuel before the commercial launch of ammonia- and hydrogen-fuelled vessels. The Japanese shipping industry is expected to launch more methanol-fuelled vessels from 2027 ( see table ), to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global maritime sector. Global regulatory body the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 2023 pledged to achieve net zero emissions in international waters by or around 2050. To help achieve the IMO's target, a total of 26 methanol-powered vessels are expected to be commissioned worldwide by the end of this year, followed by 54 ships in 2025 and 96 carriers in 2026, according to a report released in November by Japanese classification society ClassNK. This would increase global methanol demand to 4.5mn t/yr by 2026, said the report. As of June, there are 33 methanol-fuelled vessels currently in use. Methanol-fuelled vessels can refuel at around 130 major ports all over the world, except in Japan, according to Japanese shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines (Mol). The city of Yokohama in the eastern prefecture of Kanagawa, in co-operation with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) and Maersk, launched a study on methanol and green methanol bunkering in the port of Yokohama in December 2023. Since then, the group, in collaboration with new partners — Japanese refiner Idemitsu, MGC's shipping subsidiary Kokuka Sangyo, domestic shipping firm Uyeno Transtech and Yokohama Kawasaki international port — has conducted a ship-to-ship bunkering simulation at the port of Yokohama in September. Expectations of the increase in methanol use, especially cleaner e-methanol, have led Japanese firms to become more involved in upstream projects to secure the fuel. Japanese firms have invested in more than 10 e-methanol production projects both in and outside of Japan ( see table ), with the number of projects likely to increase, according to the ministry of economy, trade and industry. Japanese firms are developing new carriers, but at the same time are also trying to modify existing vessels — which currently use fuel oil, LNG, LPG and methanol — to be able to burn renewable fuels such as biofuels, e-methane and e-methanol. It would be easy to increase the number of methanol-fuelled ships, given their relatively low initial or modification costs compared with LNG-fed vessels, according to Mol. Methanol is also a stable liquid at room temperature and atmosphere pressure, making it easy to transport and store compared to other alternative fuels, Mol added. Fellow shipping company Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK line) is also mulling the development of smaller methanol-fuelled handymax ships that are unable to be equipped with large ammonia fuel tanks, to aid with decarbonisation. Methanol a temporary solution But Japanese firms see methanol mostly as a "bridging fuel" rather than a zero-emission fuel, as methanol can reduce GHG emissions only by 15pc compared to traditional bunker fuel, although it can curb sulphur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 99pc and 80pc, respectively. It would be vital to begin introducing much cleaner marine fuels, such as ammonia and hydrogen, to meet the maritime sector's net-zero goal. Tokyo is trying to promote the development of ammonia and hydrogen-fuelled ships by providing financial support, while the utilisation of such clean vessels could materialise from around 2030, the ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism (Mlit) said. Japan's state-owned research institute Nedo plans to provide ¥35bn ($229mn) to support the development of engines, fuel tanks, fuel supply systems and other core technologies for zero-emission ships that use hydrogen and ammonia, as well as LNG and e-methane, under its ¥2.76 trillion green innovation fund. But the grants are much larger than those for the development of methanol-fuelled ships, which are currently available only from Mlit and the environment ministry, with the amount of ¥100mn per vessel over two to three years. The scheme has been open for application every year since 2023. But the ministries' scheme also targets LNG-fuelled ships, with a breakdown of allotment for methanol-powered vessels unclear. By Reina Maeda and Nanami Oki Japanese firms' methanol projects Methanol-fuelled ships Company # of vessel Type Target commercialisation Announcement Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Mitsui OSK Line 1 Ocean-going methanol carrier Jul-05 May-23 Toyofuji Shipping, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 Ro-Ro vessel 2027-28 fiscal year Jun-24 Mitsui OSK Line 1 Coastal methanol carrier Dec-24 Jul-24 NS United Kaiun, Nihon Shipyard, Jaman Marine United, Imabari Shipbuilding Multiple Bulk carrier After 2027-28 fiscal year May-24 Orix, Tsuneishi Shipbuilding 2 Bulk carrier Jul-24 Production Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol US Jan-24 1630000 Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Bio-methanol Japan Jun-24 Small amount Mitsubishi Gas Chemical, Kobelco E-methanol Japan NA NA Cosmo, Toyo Engineering E-methanol Japan NA NA Sumitomo Chemical E-methanol Japan 2030s NA Mitsui, Asahi Kasei Bio-methanol US Jun-23 NA Toyo Engineering E-methanol India 2030 NA Investment Company Product Country Target commercialisation Target capacity (t/yr) Mitsui E-methanol Denmark NA 42,000 Idemitsu E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 JOGMEC E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Mitsu OSK Line E-methanol Brazil, US, Chile, Uruguay, Australia 2,030 4,000,000 Table source: Firm's company releases Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

E-PVC buyers build stocks ahead of US tariffs


24/12/13
24/12/13

E-PVC buyers build stocks ahead of US tariffs

Houston, 13 December (Argus) — Emulsion-grade polyvinyl chloride (E-PVC) producers and buyers are racing to build inventories ahead of potential US tariffs on imported goods, according to market participants at the Vinyl Week conference this week in Louisville, Kentucky. President-elect Donald Trump has said he would impose 25pc tariffs on all goods imported from Canada and Mexico after he takes office next month, and that he would raise tariffs on Chinese imports by 10pc. Tariffs on Mexican imports are of particular concern to buyers who rely on the country for some imported E-PVC, also known as specialty or paste PVC. Some US buyers at the conference sponsored by the Plastics Industry Association said a more expansive tariff policy would not only raise delivered prices for E-PVC, it also would also be inflationary for everyday goods. Higher prices could reduce consumer spending power and cut demand for E-PVC in flooring or automotive manufacturing. Other buyers of E-PVC said a more focused scope for tariffs that centered on supporting industry in the US could be beneficial. One flooring producer said tariffs could allow it to recapture market share for products like luxury vinyl tile that have been increasingly dominated by imports from countries like China. Flooring is one of the two largest end use consumers for E-PVC. Suppliers are taking precautions, even if the tariff policy proves to be limited. European producers with extensive warehouse networks in the US have been exporting even greater volumes to North America ahead of potential tariffs that Trump threatened during his campaign, as well before a potential resumption of dockworker strikes in mid-January. US distributors are building inventories of Mexican imports in order to beat the threatened tariffs. US dependence on E-PVC imports deepened after Orbia closed its 60,000 t/yr Pedricktown, New Jersey plant in the fourth quarter with plans to supply US cusomers from its plant in Marl, Germany. The closure leaves the US E-PVC manufacturing capacity at around 156,000 t/yr. While the E-PVC market is more niche compared to the suspension-grade market used in pipe production, the US is structurally short on supply for specialty resins. Many E-PVC buyers with operations on both sides of the Atlantic expect US demand growth to be stronger than in Europe. Some European producers have been raising operating rates above 70pc because exporting excess volume to the US was a viable option. Tariffs could challenge that strategy as higher import prices for US buyers would pressure export prices, and European producers are not inclined to cut prices, market participants said. If Trump does not implement his promised tariffs, E-PVC buyers and producers alike generally agreed that US market demand would be stable to up slightly in 2025. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US PET recycling rate rose in 2023


24/12/13
24/12/13

US PET recycling rate rose in 2023

Houston, 13 December (Argus) — The 2023 US recycling rate for PET bottles rose to 33pc, its highest level since 1996, according to data from the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR). The US collected 1.96bn lbs of PET bottles for recycling in 2023, up by 2.7pc from 1.91bn in 2022, even while fewer bottles were produced, according to NAPCOR. Overall PET bottle production was 5.95bn lbs in 2023, a 9.8pc drop from 2022. The rPET content rate in US bottles reached a high of 16.2pc in 2023, up from 13.2pc in 2022. Total US rPET content in bottles reached 966mn lbs in 2023, up from 870mn lbs in 2022. NAPCOR said the increase in collection demonstrates increased demand for rPET across the US. Overall North American PET bottle recycling rates also increased in 2023, reaching a high of 41.3pc. Despite the increase in recycled production in 2023, it was a tough year for recyclers due to a drop in consumer spending, which tightened the amount that bottlers and brands were willing to spend on recycled material. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s industrial output falls 1.2pc in October


24/12/13
24/12/13

Mexico’s industrial output falls 1.2pc in October

Mexico City, 13 December (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production dropped by 1.2pc in October, driven by declines in manufacturing and mining, statistics agency Inegi said today. The seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI) reversed a 0.6pc increase recorded in September, surprising analysts who had expected a smaller contraction. Banorte had forecast a 0.1pc decline, while the market consensus pointed to a 0.6pc decrease. The sharper-than-expected downturn was largely attributed to a 1.9pc drop in manufacturing, which accounts for 63pc of the IMAI. This followed growth of 1pc in September and 0.4pc in August. Within manufacturing, transportation manufacturing — a key segment making up 12pc of the sector —fell by 4.3pc, reversing a 2pc increase in September and a 1pc uptick in August. Despite this decline, light vehicle production reached 382,101 units in October, up from 378,583 in September, on track to set a new annual record . Mexican auto industry association AMIA told Argus the drop in transportation manufacturing was unrelated to light vehicle production. Instead, Alejandro Cervantes, director of quantitative economic research at Banorte, suggested the decline could be linked to trucks and heavy-duty equipment manufacturing. "Despite [being] a negative month for industrial activity and possibly for aggregate economic activity, the fact is that we have seen a strong rebound in the production of vehicles," said Cervantes. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, contracted by 1.9pc in October, following a 1.2pc decline in September. Oil and gas extraction fell by 0.9pc, marking its fourth consecutive month of contraction. In contrast, construction — accounting for 19pc of the IMAI — increased by 0.5pc in October after a 1.1pc increase in September. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Revolution acquires Michigan film recycler


24/12/12
24/12/12

Revolution acquires Michigan film recycler

Houston, 12 December (Argus) — Arkansas-based film recycler Revolution Sustainable Solutions has acquired Michigan-based film recycler Island Plastics, expanding its total input capacity to more than 300mn lbs/yr. Island Plastics recycles post-consumer low-density and linear low-density polyethylene (rLDPE/LLDPE), with an input capacity of over 25mn lb/yr. Revolution said the acquisition would help the company expand its customer offerings of post-consumer food grade clear rLDPE. Revolution declined to disclose financial terms of the deal. Last year, Revolution acquired a letter of no objection from the US Food and Drug Administration for its recycled linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), allowing its product to be used for food contact purposes. In January this year, Revolution acquired Canadian agricultural film recycler PolyAg. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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