Viewpoint: European HVO demand to rise in 2025

: Biofuels
24/12/23

European demand for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), or renewable diesel, will be supported in 2025 by a combination of higher mandates for the use of renewables in transport, and by changes to EU member state regulations on the carryover of renewable fuels tickets, like in Germany and the Netherlands.

European HVO production could grow by more than 400,000t in 2025, if announced projects are completed in time. Most new plants have the flexibility to switch to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, in the form of hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthesised paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK).

But those seeking to import HVO into the EU will face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO will be imposed by mid-February, and anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are already in place for HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin.

Flows of US-origin HVO to the UK are unimpeded as transposed EU duties were removed in 2022.

A clean slate...

Against a headwind of gradually shrinking diesel demand, national transport renewables mandates are increasing. These ambitions rise again under the next iteration of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), for which member states face a May 2025 transposition deadline.

Optimism in the biofuels markets will be tempered by experiences in 2024. The low value of renewable fuel tickets — tradeable credits generated primarily by the sale of biofuel-blended fuels — in major European demand centres has weighed on supplier appetite for physical biofuels.

This includes the relatively expensive HVO that can be blended in much greater volumes than cheaper fatty acid methyl esters (Fame). A portion of these tradeable tickets can usually be carried over from one obligation year to the next — as was done from 2023-24 — extending pressure on physical biofuel demand.

But Germany has approved a law removing the option for companies to carry over excess 2024 greenhouse gas (GHG) certificates through both 2025 and 2026, aimed at resetting the outlook for physical renewables demand. Obligated parties will need start from scratch to meet their annual GHG savings targets — at 10.6pc for 2025 and 12.1pc for 2026 — resulting in greater demand for physical biofuels including HVO.

In the Netherlands, the tickets carryover will be reduced from 25pc to 10pc for companies with an annual blending obligation.

...follows volatility

Prompt HVO assessments firmed significantly late in 2024 — albeit from long-term lows — driven by short-term demand in the Netherlands at a time of tight regional supply.

HVO (Class II) fob ARA range, a European benchmark based on HVO produced from used cooking oil (UCO), peaked at $1,500/m³ as a premium to escalated gasoil by 14 November — or a 122pc increase from the start of October — equating to $2,652.91/t on an outright basis.

Assessments then fell back to a $860/m³ premium a week later, when the market rebalanced as suppliers looked to reroute prompt volumes.

Before the rise, prices had hovered around historically soft levels for a sustained period. Sweden's decision to slash its GHG emissions mandate for the 2024-26 period due to fuel price concerns, and the low ticket prices have kept a lid on values.

The HVO (Class II) outright price averaged around $1,625/t over 1 January-31 October 2024, down by around $580/t compared with the same period of 2023.

While fundamentals now point to growth in European HVO use, the futures curve is backwardated. Those in the market may yet take a position that aligns with this viewpoint, but recent volatility has stunted forward trade.

By Toby Shay

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25/04/11

Renovabio: Usinas alertam distribuidoras inadimplentes

Sao Paulo, 11 April (Argus) — Grandes grupos do setor sucroalcooleiro começaram a alertar clientes de que poderão deixar de fornecer etanol a distribuidoras em desconformidade com a Política Nacional de Biocombustíveis (Renovabio) e normas da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). As informações foram confirmadas à Argus participantes do mercado, entre traders , corretores e funcionários da área de inteligência de mercado de companhias do setor de distribuição, que dizem que as comunicações começaram no fim de março. Segundo as fontes, que falaram sob a condição de anonimato, Atvos, Evolua e Raízen teriam começado a comunicar distribuidoras inadimplentes em suas metas de aposentadoria de créditos de descarbonização (Cbios) de que elas correm o risco de não poder mais adquirir etanol via contratos de fornecimento de longo prazo, regidos pela resolução nº 946/2023 (que modificou a antiga 67/2011) da ANP. Todas as companhias citadas foram procuradas pela Argus, mas decidiram não comentar sobre o assunto ou não responderam até o fechamento desta reportagem. A movimentação das usinas vem com o fim da carência de 90 dias para a entrada em vigor de pontos da nova lei que endurece punições contra distribuidoras inadimplentes (Lei nº 15.082/2024). A norma, apesar de sancionada no fim de 2024, ainda não foi regulamentada pelo governo federal. A lei determina que o descumprimento das metas individuais estabelecidas pelo Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) constitua crime ambiental e leve à revogação da autorização para o exercício de atividade do distribuidor, além da cobrança de multa, que pode chegar a R$500 milhões. Ela também proíbe agentes da cadeia de comercializar com essas empresas nesta situação. Mas a aplicação imediata de parte das sanções enfrenta obstáculos legais. Em resposta a questionamentos feitos pela ANP, representantes da Procuradoria Federal junto à autarquia reforçaram entendimento de que a nova lei não deve retroagir. Isso significa que sanções mais duras só valeriam para metas não cumpridas a partir do ciclo de 2025, sendo aplicadas apenas em 2026. Apesar da limitação para o enforcement imediato por parte do regulador, os grandes grupos do setor de açúcar e etanol já começaram a se movimentar para cumprir com suas obrigações legais. Segundo fontes, uma primeira medida estaria relacionada ao fechamento dos próximos contratos de fornecimento, que vão de 1º de junho de um ano a 31 de maio do ano subsequente e vinculariam o fornecimento à situação das distribuidoras compradoras. Batalha jurídica Das 160 distribuidoras com metas estabelecidas no Renovabio, 60 iniciaram o ciclo de 2025 com menos Cbios aposentados do que deveriam. Destas, 13 já entraram na Justiça contra o programa e hoje mantêm alguma decisão liminar favorável às suas causas, segundo dados disponibilizados pela própria autarquia. Raízen e Evolua, líderes do setor sucroalcooleiro no Centro-Sul, são joint-ventures entre produtores e as distribuidoras Shell e Vibra ‒ ambas em conformidade com o Renovabio e críticas às distorções provocadas por distribuidoras regionais inadimplentes. Segundo dados da ANP, as 3 maiores distribuidoras do país têm sofrido com uma perda de participação de mercado nos últimos anos, saindo de um total de 66pc em 2022 para 62pc em 2024. Parte do movimento é justificado por elas pelo não atendimento de empresas concorrentes ao Renovabio e alegadas fraudes no cumprimento do mandato de mistura de biodiesel no diesel. Neste período de 2 anos, o share somado das 5 maiores inadimplentes em Cbios avançou de 5,5pc para 6,5pc. A Associação Nacional de Distribuidores de Combustíveis (ANDC), que representa distribuidoras regionais de pequeno e médio porte, protocolou, em fevereiro, petição à ANP denunciando a atitude de alguns fornecedores de biocombustíveis de recusar a venda de produto. O grupo argumenta que "o poder de polícia cabe ao poder público" e que a atitude das produtoras "fere a defesa da ordem econômica". Na ocasião, o órgão regulador respondeu que as listas divulgadas por ela com as distribuidoras que respondem a processos administrativos sancionadores "não podem ainda ser consideradas para fins de restrição no suprimento de combustíveis", já que a nova lei dos Cbios ainda não foi regulamentada. A ANDC reclama de "falta de participação social" nas discussões sobre a regulamentação do Renovabio e no próprio comitê governamental do programa. A associação diz que, depois dessas movimentações, não observou casos de produtores de biocombustíveis negando a venda de produto para distribuidoras. Por Amance Boutin e Marcos Mortari Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Participants mostly support IMO GHG pricing mechanism

25/04/11

Participants mostly support IMO GHG pricing mechanism

London, 11 April (Argus) — International shipping organisations and market participants mostly support the global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism approved today at the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, but some raised concerns. The structure approved by the IMO establishes that ships must reduce their fuel intensity by a "base target" of 4pc in 2028 against 93.3 gCO2e/MJ, the latter representing the average GHG fuel intensity value of international shipping in 2008. Emissions above this target will be charged at $380/tCO2e. The levels defined by the approved regulation are achievable, according to a market participant, who said the gradually increasing targets may allow the market to properly adapt to the transition. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) secretary general Guy Platten said the sector is already investing billions of dollars in 'green' technology, so the agreement gives certainty that sustainable marine fuels producers need. "The world's governments have now come forward with a comprehensive agreement which, although not perfect in every respect, we very much hope will be formally adopted later this year," he said. The European Shipowners (ECSA) secretary general Sotiris Raptis agreed the draft "is not perfect", but he celebrated progress towards a net zero emissions target, saying "it is a good starting point for further work" and pointing out that it may ensure the necessary investment in production of clean fuels. During a press briefing, IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said ships operating in international waters will be obliged to comply with the regulations after adoption, despite the US' refusal to engage with the discussions . Adoption of the pricing mechanism will be discussed and voted on in October. Offering a counterview, the Global Maritime Forum said the agreed measures may not be strong enough to reach IMO targets. "The GHG intensity targets create uncertainty as to whether the strategy's emissions reduction checkpoints for 2030 and 2040 will be met," it said. "As currently designed, measures are unlikely to be sufficient to incentivise the rapid development of e-fuels such as e-ammonia or e-methanol , which will be needed in the long run due to their scalability and emission reduction potential." It said that failure to invest in these fuels would put at risk the target of at least 5pc zero- and near-zero emission fuel use by 2030 and the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal. The World Shipping Council's vice president Bryan Wood-Thomas praised the agreement and said one benefit of it is the pricing system that is "more aggressive" if a vessel fails to meet the GHG intensity standard. "But you also have a fee system that gives investors more confidence in actual revenue [from using cleaner fuels]," he said. The Brazilian representative told Argus the fact that some countries thought the agreement was too ambitious while others indicated it was not ambitious enough show the group may have reached a balance that can be possible to comply. About the Brazilian position, the representative said the country "was never against an agreement". "We were only against some aspects of the agreement, and we think that the membership has heard our concerns, and that's why we ended up pretty happy with the results", he said. Brazil voted in favour of the agreement today. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Madeleine Jenkins, Natália Coelho, and Gabriel Tassi Lara. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO approves two-tier GHG pricing mechanism

25/04/11

IMO approves two-tier GHG pricing mechanism

London, 11 April (Argus) — Delegates have approved the global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism proposal at the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, pending an adoption vote at the next MEPC in October. The proposal passed by a majority vote, with 63 nations in favor including EU states, the UK, China and India, and 16 members opposed, including Mideast Gulf states, Russia, and Venezuela. The US was absent from the MEPC 83 meeting, and 24 member states abstained. The proposal was accompanied by an amendment to implement the regulation, which was approved for circulation ahead of an anticipated adoption at the October MEPC. Approval was not unanimous, which is rare. If adoption is approved in October at a vote that will require a two-thirds majority, the maritime industry will become the first transport sector to implement internationally mandated targets to reduce GHG emissions. The text says ships must initially reduce their fuel intensity by a "base target" of 4pc in 2028 ( see table ) against 93.3 gCO2e/MJ, the latter representing the average GHG fuel intensity value of international shipping in 2008. This gradually tightens to 30pc by 2035. The text defines a "direct compliance target", that starts at 17pc for 2028 and grows to 43pc by 2035. The pricing mechanism establishes a levy for excessive emissions at $380 per tonne of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) for ships compliant with the minimum 'base' target, called Tier 2. For ships in Tier 1 — those compliant with the base target but that still have emission levels higher than the direct compliance target — the price was set at $100/tCO2e. Over-compliant vessels will receive 'surplus units' equal to their positive compliance balance, expressed in tCO2e, valid for two years after emission. Ships then will be able to use the surplus units in the following reporting periods; transfer to other vessels as a credit; or voluntarily cancel as a mitigation contribution. IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said while it would have been more preferable to have a unanimous outcome, this outcome is a good result nonetheless. "We work on consensus, not unanimity," he said. "We demonstrated that we will continue to work as an organization despite the concerns." Looking at the MEPC session in October, Dominguez said: "Different member states have different positions, and there is time for us to remain in the process and address those concerns, including those that were against and those that were expecting more." Dominguez said the regulation is set to come into force in 2027, with first revenues collected in 2028 of an estimated $11bn-13bn. Dominguez also said there is a clause within the regulation that ensures a review at least every five years. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Natália Coelho, and Gabriel Tassi Lara IMO GHG reduction targets Year Base Target Direct Compliance Target 2028 4% 17% 2029 6% 19% 2030 8% 21% 2031 12% 25% 2032 17% 30% 2033 21% 34% 2034 26% 39% 2035 30% 43% Source: IMO Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Fujairah biofuel uptake lags despite EU rules push

25/04/11

Fujairah biofuel uptake lags despite EU rules push

Dubai, 11 April (Argus) — Alternative bunker fuels like biofuels have yet to gain significant traction in the UAE port of Fujairah, the world's third-largest bunkering hub, even though EU regulations such as FuelEU Maritime and the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) are driving demand expectations. Discussions at the S&P Global Commodity Insights FUJCON 2025 this week highlighted a combination of structural and market-driven factors holding back adoption, with limited demand from key vessel types and insufficient infrastructure investment topping the list. The introduction of FuelEU Maritime, which mandates a 2pc reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity for ships calling at EU ports starting this year, alongside the EU ETS carbon pricing mechanism was expected to spur demand for biofuels in Fujairah. Many vessels refueling in the UAE hub transit to Europe, making compliance with these regulations a potential driver for alternative fuel uptake. A key reason cited is the limited presence of containerships and cruise ships in Fujairah's bunkering market. Globally, these vessel types are the primary consumers of biofuels due to their operators' commitments to decarbonisation and customer-driven sustainability demands. Fujairah's bunkering activity is dominated by bulk carriers and tankers, which have been slower to adopt alternative fuels. "Containerships and cruise ships are leading the charge on biofuels in Singapore and Rotterdam, but they are just not a big part of the mix here," said Fujairah harbour master Mayed Alameeri. "We support the use of green fuels, but without that demand pull, there's little incentive to scale up." This lack of demand has deterred investments in biofuel storage and supply infrastructure. Unlike in Singapore and Rotterdam, where biofuel bunkering is supported by dedicated facilities, Fujairah's infrastructure remains geared toward conventional fuels. "There is no single shipowner who has partnered with a supplier in Fujairah on adoption of alternative fuels," said Hafnia Bunker general manager Kasper Sorensen. "It is very difficult to make a business case for investment." While there have been sporadic inquiries from shipowners over the past year, these have been for small amounts — typically 150-200t — far below the scale needed to spur investment. "You need steady offtake to justify the capex for tanks and blending," a Fujairah supplier said. "Right now, we're not seeing it." Market dynamics also play a role. The price spread between biofuels and conventional fuels remains a hurdle, with Fujairah's B24 blend trading at a significant premium to very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO). Mandates need certainty The bunker market is under pressure to decarbonise as the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) targets a 50pc cut in shipping emissions by 2050 from 2008 levels. Alternative fuels are central to this goal, but regulatory disparities complicate investment decisions, industry players said. Regulatory uncertainty adds another layer of caution. While FuelEU's pooling mechanism allows shipowners to offset emissions across fleets, potentially enabling biofuel bunkering in Fujairah to count toward EU compliance, clarity on implementation is limited. Bunker market participants urged the adoption of universal standards for alternative bunker fuels, warning that fragmented regulations are hampering the shift to lower-carbon options. "Shipowners are still figuring out how to navigate these rules which are regionally divergent," said a shipping broker. "Until there's more certainty, many are sticking with what they know." Still, some market participants expressed cautious optimism. Rising inquiries, although sporadic, suggest growing awareness of biofuels' role in meeting EU mandates. "It's not a flood, but it's a trickle that could build," said a bunker trader. For now, Fujairah's biofuel market remains in a holding pattern, waiting for demand signals strong enough to shift the hub's bunkering landscape. By Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan's Cosmo starts delivering SAF from Sakai refinery

25/04/11

Japan's Cosmo starts delivering SAF from Sakai refinery

Tokyo, 11 April (Argus) — Japanese energy firm Cosmo Energy has started supplying domestic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produced at the country's first large-scale SAF plant. This marks the first SAF delivery from the plant housed at refiner Cosmo Oil's Sakai refinery, Cosmo Energy announced on 10 April. Cosmo Energy's subsidiary Cosmo Oil Marketing delivered SAF to the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) at the country's western Kansai International Airport on 10 April. The delivered amount should be 15 kilolitres, based on JASDF's public notice for the tender. SAF producing joint venture Saffaire Sky Energy — launched by Cosmo Oil, engineering firm JGC and biodiesel producer Revo International — produces this SAF from used cooking oil (UCO) at the plant. The firms aim to supply around 30,000 kilolitres/yr, and plan to begin delivering SAF to domestic airlines Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA), the US' Delta Air Lines , Finland's Finnair, and German logistics group DHL Express in the 2025 fiscal year starting this April. JASDF's acrobatic flight team Blue Impulse will use the SAF in an exhibition flight scheduled on 13 April, the opening day of Expo 2025, over the event's venue in Osaka. Separately, an explosion occurred at the Sakai refinery on 10 April, but its 100,000 b/d crude distillation unit (CDU) is still operating, according to Cosmo Oil and the local fire department. The fire department received a notice from the refinery's staff that "an explosion happened at a sulphuric acid regeneration equipment, with no fires or leaks of LPG." The refinery was heating sulphuric acid for purification when the explosion happened. The SAF plant at the refinery is not affected by the accident, Cosmo said. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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