Viewpoint: US LPG cargo premiums poised to fall

: Freight, LPG, Natural gas, Petrochemicals
24/12/23

The booming US LPG export market has fueled record spot fees this year for terminal operators that send those cargoes abroad, but those fees are poised to fall next year as additional export capacity comes online.

US propane exports surged over the past two years, hitting an all-time high of 1.85mn b/d in the first quarter of this year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Terminal fees for spot propane cargoes out of the US Gulf coast hit an all-time high of Mont Belvieu +32.5¢/USG (+$169.325/t) in mid-September.

US propane production is expected to grow by another 80,000 b/d in 2025 to 2.22mn b/d while the outlook for domestic consumption is fairly steady, at 820,000 b/d next year — meaning even more propane will be pushed into the waterborne market. But that is dependent on US infrastructure keeping up with the pace of production.

US export terminals in Houston, Nederland and Freeport, Texas, have run at or above capacity for the last two years given the thirst for cheaper US feedstock, largely from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant operators in China. This demand has created bottlenecks at US docks, and midstream operators like Enterprise, Energy Transfer, and Targa have rushed to ramp up spending on both pipelines and additional refrigeration to stay ahead of the wave of additional production.

US gas output spurs LPG exports

As upstream producers have ramped up natural gas production ahead of new LNG projects, most producers are counting on LPG demand from international outlets in Asia to offload the ethane and propane the US cannot consume.

For the past four years, Asian buyers have been more than happy to oblige. US propane exports to China rose from zero in 2019, when China imposed tariffs on US imports, to an average of 1.36mn metric tonnes (t) per month in January-November 2024, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, making China the largest offtaker of US shipments. US exports to Japan averaged 480,000t per month throughout most of 2024, and exports to Korea averaged 460,000t per month in the first 11 months of 2024. China, Korea, and Japan received 52pc of US propane exports in 2024, up from 49pc in 2020, according to data from Vortexa.

Strong demand in Asia has kept delivered prices in Japan high enough to sustain an open arbitrage between the US and the Argus Far East Index (AFEI). Forward-month in-well propane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, have remained well below delivered propane on the AFEI. In 2020, Mont Belvieu Enterprise (EPC) propane averaged a $143/t discount to delivered AFEI — a spread that has only widened as additional PDH units in Asia have come online. During the first 11 months of 2024, the Mont Belvieu to AFEI spread averaged a hefty $219/t, leaving plenty of room for wider netbacks in the form of higher terminal fees for US sellers, especially as a wave of new VLGCs entering the global market has left shipowners with less leverage to take advantage of the wider arbitrage.

The resulting wider arbitrage to Asia has kept US export terminals running full for the last two years. So when a series of weather-related events and maintenance in May-September limited the number of spot cargoes operators could sell and delayed scheduled shipments, term buyers willing to resell any of their loadings could effectively name their price. This spurred the record-high premiums for spot propane cargoes in September.

New projects may narrow premium

An increase in US midstream firm investments in additional dock capacity and added refrigeration in the years ahead could narrow those terminal fees, however.

Announced projects from Enterprise and Energy Transfer, in particular, will add a combined 550,000 b/d of LPG export capacity out of Houston and Nederland, Texas by the end of 2026. Enterprise's new Neches River terminal project near Beaumont, Texas, will add another 360,000 b/d of either ethane or propane export capacity in the same timeframe.

These additions are poised to limit premiums for spot cargoes by the end of 2025. Already, it appears the spike in spot cargo premiums to Mont Belvieu has abated for the rest of 2024. Spot terminal fees for propane sank to Mont Belvieu +14¢/USG by the end of November.

The lower premiums come not only as terminals resume a more normal loading schedule, but at the same time a surplus of tons into Asia ahead of winter heating demand has narrowed the arbitrage. The spread between in-well EPC propane at Mont Belvieu fell from $214.66/t to $194.45/t during November. A backwardated market for AFEI paper into the second quarter of 2025 means US prices are poised to fall more in order to keep the spread from narrowing further.

By Amy Strahan

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24/12/23

Viewpoint: Protectionist policies muddy US PE outlook

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Potential new tariffs combined with protectionist policies from other importing countries are clouding the outlook for growth in the US polyethylene (PE) market heading into 2025. US president-elect Donald Trump threatened a 25pc tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and at times has threatened as much as a 60pc tariff on all goods imported from China. Any new tariffs open the US up to retaliatory tariffs from the three countries, which have historically been among the top destinations for US PE exports. Brazil, another major trading partner with the US, recently raised import tariffs on PE to 20pc. On top of that, Brazil is in the midst of an anti-dumping investigation into US PE, which if successful would raise the tariff on US PE by an additional 21.4pc, bringing the total tariff for US PE in Brazil to 41.4pc. US PE exports in the first 10 months of 2024 totalled roughly 11.6mn t, with 16.4pc sold to China, 13.3pc sold to Mexico, 10.8pc sold to Brazil and 7pc sold to Canada , according to data from Global Trade Tracker (GTT). US PE producers are increasingly relying on exports, particularly with new capacity still set to come online in the next two years. This includes a new 600,000 t/yr linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/high density polyethylene (HDPE) swing plant from Dow set to start in the second half of 2025, as well as 2mn t/yr of HDPE capacity from Chevron Phillips Chemical's joint venture with Qatar-based QE in 2026. Exports as a percentage of total US and Canadian PE sales has been growing since 2016, when it was less than 25pc to crossing the 50pc threshold for the first time in November of this year, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). ACC data combines the US and Canada and considers trade between them as domestic rather than exports. With the US and Canadian PE markets largely functioning as one, the potential tariffs on product from Canada could cause problems for US buyers as well as Canadian suppliers, whose competitiveness in the region could be limited by new tariffs. "It would be a huge problem," said one US PE buyer who purchases resin from suppliers in both countries. For one particular grade of PE, the buyer said there are only two suppliers, including one producer in Canada and one in the US. If tariffs were imposed on Canadian material, it would suddenly make that particular grade more expensive because it would mean the US producer would no longer need to match competitive offers from Canada. Retaliatory concerns While US buyers are concerned about having to pay new duties on imports from Canada, US producers are also worried about potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries, such as China, and new duties and potential tariffs in Brazil. US PE exports to China totaled roughly 1.9mn t in the first 10 months of 2024, an amount that could not be easily absorbed by many other countries if new tariffs limit sales into that country. And in Brazil, US PE exports totaled roughly 1.26mn t in 2024 through October, another huge chunk that is at risk if the new anti-dumping duties against US PE are implemented. "Brazil is a huge market for the US. It's a big deal," said one US trader. "Producers can ship to countries around Brazil, but that will not cover everything we are losing. Where will it all go?" New outlets are opening up for US product in places such as Europe, where some global capacity has shut down. ExxonMobil, for instance, announced in April it was permanently shutting down its Gravenchon cracker and associated derivative plants in France, including a 420,000 t/yr HDPE-LLDPE swing unit. With the closure of that plant, sources have said ExxonMobil is exporting more volume from its cost-advantaged US assets to the region. But there is a limit to how much US export volume can be absorbed because of shutdowns in other regions. While many market participants are hopeful that proposed tariffs will not materialize, the uncertainty is making it difficult to plan for 2025, sources said. "Speculating on it is a waste. You don't know what is going to happen first, you don't know what the reaction is going to be," said one buyer. "All you can do is try to get the lowest prices you can and work a little bit of flexibility into your contracts." By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

24/12/23

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

New York, 23 December (Argus) — A Republican-controlled Congress will decide the fate next year of a federal incentive for low-carbon fuels, setting the stage for a lobbying battle that could make or break existing investment plans. The 45Z tax credit, which offers greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions, is poised to kick off in January. Biofuel output has boomed during President Joe Biden's term, driven in large part by west coast refiners retrofitting facilities to process lower-carbon fats and oils into renewable diesel. The 45Z tax credit, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), was designed to extend that growth. But Republicans will soon control Washington. President-elect Donald Trump has dismissed the IRA as the "Green New Scam", and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who had no role in passing Biden's signature climate legislation, are keen to cut climate spending to offset the steep cost of extending tax cuts from Trump's first term. Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Brazil may face road bottleneck in 1Q

24/12/23

Viewpoint: Brazil may face road bottleneck in 1Q

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — The Brazilian soybean harvest and fertilizer deliveries for the country's 2024-25 second corn crop will likely drive first-quarter grain and fertilizer road freight rates higher. Grain freight rates have been unusually low in 2024 because lower international soybean prices discouraged producers from doing business in most months. But market participants expect greater demand for transportation services in export corridors in 2025, as an expected record 2024-25 harvest combines with a US dollar that has strengthening against the Brazilian real, driving export demand. Brazil will produce 166.2mn metric tonnes (t) of soybeans in the 2024-25 cycle, an increase of almost 13pc from the previous season, according to national supply company Conab's third official estimate for the cycle. The 2024-25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest producer — will total 44mn t, also 13pc above 2023-24 production, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. Mato Grosso's soybean planting pace for 2024-25 has fluctuated significantly over the growing season, initially advancing slowly because of dry weather, and then speeding up once rains returned. Planting was complete on only 25pc of the almost 12.7mn hectares (ha) expected for the cycle by 18 October, less than the 60pc reached at the same time in 2023 for the 2023-24 cycle. But planting increased by 68.6 percentage points in the following three weeks, totaling 93.7pc by 8 November. As a result, more than half of the soybean planted area in Mato Grosso was carried out in the same three week period. That raises concerns among market participants about high competition for export transportation and available vehicles when all those crops become ready for harvest at the same time, resulting in a logistical bottleneck. Market participants expect lower freight rates for exports during the 2024-25 second corn harvest, set to take place in the second half of 2025. Demand from the Brazilian domestic market will remain at a consistently high level, especially from ethanol units, whose demand for corn was high in 2024, as prices carried a premium to the export market, and also contributed to lower export volumes. This should lead to lower grain freight rates during the second half of 2025, with a significant portion of grain destined to meet the Brazilian industry's needs. Corn ethanol production in Brazil is expected to total 7.2bn liters (124,865 b/d) in the 2024-25 cycle, a 22pc increase from 5.9bn l in the previous cycle, according to Conab. The company projects that 1t of corn can produce around 400l of ethanol, which means that approximately 18mn t of corn will be consumed by the ethanol industry. Brazil is expected to produce around 86.2mn t of animal feed in 2024, 2.3pc more than it did in 2023, according to the sector's national union Sindiracoes. This should stimulate demand for about 55mn t of corn for all animal feed production expected this year. Animal feed production is expected to grow further in 2025 to 87.8mn t. Ferts freight rates may also increase Fertilizer transportation may face logistical bottlenecks to move inputs from ports to crops in early 2025 because of the slow pace of fertilizer purchases, especially nitrogen, for the 2024-25 second corn harvest. With the purchase window coming to a close by the end of December, market participants estimate that these nutrients have to arrive at Brazilian ports by early January, so that they can be transported in time for application during the grain harvest. That may also increase competition for vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, especially in January, when the supply of trucks is reduced following end-of-year festivities. Under these circumstances, higher fertilizer freight rates and higher costs for road logistics are expected. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Chugoku restarts Shimane nuclear reactor early

24/12/23

Japan’s Chugoku restarts Shimane nuclear reactor early

Osaka, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese utility Chugoku Electric Power restarted the 820MW Shimane No.2 nuclear reactor for test operations on 23 December, two days earlier than originally planned. The No.2 reactor at Shimane in west Japan's Shimane prefecture was reconnected to the country's power grids for the first time in nearly 13 years, after the reactor shut down in January 2012 for stricter safety inspections following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown disaster. Chugoku reactivated the Shimane No.2 reactor on 7 December, aiming to resume power generation on 25 December. But the target date for commercial operations remained unchanged on 10 January, despite the earlier than expected restart. The Shimane No.2 reactor will be a vital power source as the sole nuclear fleet in the Chugoku area, to help enhance the resilience of the power supply structure, stabilise retail electricity prices and reduce CO2 emissions, said Japan Atomic Industrial Forum's president Hideki Masui on 23 December. The Shimane No.2 reactor is the second boiling water reactor (BWR) to be restarted after the Fukushima disaster, following the 825MW Onagawa No.2 BWR unit that resumed test generation on 15 November, with normal operations scheduled to restart on 26 December. The BWR is the same type as that involved in the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The restart of the two BWRs would pave the way for Japan's nuclear restoration, as 15 BWRs — including advanced BWRs — are still closed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Japan has restored 14 reactors as of 23 December, including the Shimane and Onagaw reactors, of which 12 are installed with a pressurised water reactor (PWR) design. Nuclear power's share The Japanese government last week set a target of 20pc for nuclear power's share in the country's draft power mix for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, under the triennial review for the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP). Tokyo is seeking to restart all existing reactors to achieve the 20pc goal, adding that replacement reactors would also be possible. The draft SEP allows nuclear power operators that had decommissioned reactors to build next-generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements. Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) has applauded this progress, but FEPC chairman Kingo Hayashi noted that it was disappointing the SEP did not mention a nuclear capacity target which the FEPC had requested. It also did not include building new reactors or the expansion of existing nuclear plants, Hayashi added. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House votes to avert government shutdown

24/12/20

US House votes to avert government shutdown

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly today to extend funding for US federal government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House, by a 366-34 vote, approved a measure that would maintain funding for the government at current levels until 14 March, deliver $10bn in agricultural aid and provide $100bn in disaster relief. Its passage was in doubt until voting began in the House at 5pm ET, following a chaotic intervention two days earlier by president-elect Donald Trump and his allies, including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk. The Democratic-led Senate is expected to approve the measure, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it. Trump and Musk on 18 December derailed a spending deal House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump lobbied for a more streamlined version that would have suspended the ceiling on federal debt until 30 January 2027. But that version of the bill failed in the House on Thursday, because of opposition from 38 Republicans who bucked the preference of their party leader. Trump and Musk opposed the bipartisan spending package, contending that it would fund Democratic priorities, such as rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. But doing away with that bill killed many other initiatives that his party members have advanced, including a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. Depending on the timing of the Senate action and the presidential signature, funding for US government agencies could lapse briefly beginning on Saturday. Key US agencies tasked with energy sector regulatory oversight and permitting activities have indicated that a brief shutdown would not significantly interfere with their operations. But the episode previews potential legislative disarray when Republicans take full control of Congress on 3 January and Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Extending government funding beyond 14 March is likely to feature as an element in the Republicans' attempts to extend corporate tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, which is a key priority for Trump. The Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate next month, but their hold on the House will be even narrower than this year, at 219-215 initially. Trump has picked two House Republican members to serve in his administration, so the House Republican majority could briefly drop to 217-215 just as funding for the government would expire in mid-March. Congress will separately have to tackle the issue of raising the debt limit. Conservative advocacy group Economic Policy Innovation Center projects that US borrowing could reach that limit as early as June. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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