President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports could redirect key imported oil grades away from the US west coast, opening avenues for displaced Latin American crudes to reappear.
The tariffs, which Trump announced on 25 November, could displace about 9pc of the crude US west coast refiners import. Canadian crude flows from the newly expanded 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system, which recently have drawn purchases in the US west coast, would force barrels to Asia-Pacific. Mexican crude sellers would divert crude to other outlets as well, like Europe or Asia-Pacific.
Refiners on the US west coast increased purchases of Canadian grades after the May startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX). Cheaper prices and closer proximity to Vancouver, British Columbia, where TMX crude loads, allowed the heavy sour crudes to find favor along the US west coast. But the proposed tariffs could raise landed TMX prices, no longer making it the cheapest heavy sour option. US west coast buyers would pay a 25pc import tariff to US Customs and Border Protection on TMX crude once it has entered port.
US west coast refiners received around 169,000 b/d of crude from the Vancouver area since the pipeline came on line in May, up from less than 40,000 b/d a year earlier, data analytics firm Vortexa shows.
Around 60pc of Mexico's crude exports in 2024 went to the US, mostly to the US Gulf coast, according to Vortexa data. Tariffs could lead to a drop in prices to adjust to a tariffed American market or for Mexican crude going more often to other destinations such as Europe or Asia-Pacific. Spain, South Korea and India, were the second, third and fourth most common destinations for Mexican crude exports in 2024, respectively.
Mexico's crude production and export infrastructure is concentrated on the country's east coast, making exports to Asia-Pacific difficult. Mexico would need to invest in building exporting infrastructure from the west coast to improve trade routes to Asia, market participants say. But Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex plans to continue cost-cutting measures, led by recently elected President Claudia Sheinbaum, so infrastructure expansion is unlikely.
Other Latin crudes could also experience a rise after being displaced by the commencement of TMX in May. Since then, heavier crudes from countries such as Colombia, Ecuador and Argentina have found more frequent routes to the US Gulf coast and Asia-Pacific. Market participants believe lighter Brazilian grades could find routes to the US west coast as TMX supply increases in China. China imported 683,000 b/d of Brazilian crudes in 2024, compared with 180,000 b/d of imports to the US west coast from Brazil, according to Vortexa.
Sources say the tariffs are a bargaining chip by the incoming administration, and participants are skeptical they will be implemented by the Trump administration. Instead, the tariffs could exclude crude and other commodities. More than $3.3bn of goods and services cross the US-Canada border each day, according to Canada's Fall Economic Statement (FES), which notes Canada is the largest market for 36 US states.
Market participants are vocally against the proposed tariffs. Tariffs on crude and refined products "will not help our industry compete, nor will they support US energy dominance and affordability for consumers," the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufactures said on 27 November. Cenovus is also trying to explain to policy makers in the incoming Trump administration how tariffs on Canada could impact the energy system in North America. But the incoming administration shows no sign of backing off the tariffs for 2025.
