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Viewpoint: European BD to face tighter supply in 2025

  • : Petrochemicals
  • 24/12/30

European butadiene (BD) supply is expected to tighten next year, according to market participants, because of scheduled steam-cracker closures and steady demand.

European domestic demand this year helped spot prices maintain a 5-7pc premium to the monthly contract price (MCP) until December, when spot prices fell to parity with the MCP. But the lower BD MCP in December protected Europe's position as the lowest cost region after three consecutive price rollovers, even as US and Asian prices fell.

Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic on consumer demand for early 2025. One producer noted that interest for spot volumes remains strong into early next year and export sales should remain resilient, especially once buying interest picks up after the Lunar New Year.

European BD exports — which primarily flow to the Asia-Pacific region with one-offs to the US— were stable at nearly one shipment per month from April-December, although they were down from the prior year. Europe's BD exports totaled about 109,700 metric tonnes (t) so far this year, but there are ongoing discussions for one additional long-haul shipment loading in late December.

That said, the spread between Europe and the US is forecast to remain closer to parity, narrowing the premium European sellers have obtained from moving shipments eastward. Both planned and unplanned cracker turnarounds in the US may raise prices there and open space for Europe's coastal producers to periodically capture preferred access to Asian buyers, independent of logistical bottlenecks.

Currency, crackers may pressure demand

Currency fluctuations may dent buyers' confidence in the coming year as a stronger US dollar lifts costs for imports, affecting selling prices of European-origin exports in dollar terms. The outcome of the US presidential election rallied the dollar against the euro and other currencies, as markets price in expected tariffs from the new US administration. The comparative strength of the US economy also drove the rally.

Strong European domestic demand could undercut potential BD exports as the region's supplies gradually transition from net-long to more balanced, with ongoing structural changes transforming Europe's chemical business. The closure this year of two steam crackers in France and the Netherlands along with the planned shut down of two more crackers in Italy will reduce regional supply of crude C4, a key BD feedstock. Buyers in Italy will need to rely more heavily on Mediterranean imports of crude C4 in tandem with BD to maintain derivative operations.

Cracker operators next year are likely to keep throughput curbed while running lighter feedslates, limiting availability of additional volumes of crude C4 and BD. Rail logistical constraints will linger into 2025 with at least three BD consumers depending more on this mode of transportation.

The European market could see additional restructuring next year, with at least one producer weighing a review of its asset portfolio. Market participants also are watchful for announcements of unexpected closures.

BD producers in the region are also concerned about price volatility for natural gas, citing weaker margins. Dutch TTF on a day-ahead basis averaged €44.66/MWh month-to-date in December, rising by 27pc from the same period a year earlier at €35.24/MWh. Dutch TTF on a day-ahead basis reached a year-to-date peak on 21 November at €48.58/MWh. Higher natural gas prices are partially due to continued complications in gas transport and supply and to accelerated storage withdrawals.


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25/04/10

EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs

EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs

London, 10 April (Argus) — Most linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) imports will be exempt from EU retaliatory tariffs should the bloc go ahead with countermeasures against the US, according to a draft list of products seen by Argus . The EU has put the retaliatory tariffs on hold for now, after US president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is pausing his planned "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The European Commission has yet to publish the final list of US products that would be subject to any countermeasures, but before Trump's surprise move, the HS code 39014000 was removed. The list was approved by a majority vote of EU member states on Wednesday . Other HS codes of PE grades were included in the draft list and are earmarked for 25pc tariffs. It is now uncertain if and when the EU tariffs might be implemented. Prior to Trump's u-turn, 15 May was the likely date for EU tariffs on US PE imports. But "everything is paused," European Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill told Argus . LLDPE imports into the EU are categorised under the HS codes 39014000 and 39011010. The former made up just over half of all PE imports to the EU from the US in 2024, while the latter accounted for less than 12pc. The EU's PE imports from the US totalled 1.8mn t last year. Market participants told Argus that the EU will remain dependant on LLDPE imports from the US for specific grades, which include LLDPE butene and metallocene LLDPE. The UK also excluded US-origin LLDPE imports falling under the HS code 390140 from its provisional list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. By Sam Hashmi and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Grimaldi buys nine methanol-ready vessels


25/04/08
25/04/08

Grimaldi buys nine methanol-ready vessels

New York, 8 April (Argus) — Italian ferry operator Grimaldi Group has ordered nine methanol fuel-ready vessels that will be delivered by 2030. The company is spending $1.3bn for six vessels that will be operated in the Mediterranean Sea by subsidiary Minoan Lines and three ships that will travel between Finland and Germany in the Baltic Sea. Those vessels will be operated by another subsidiary, Finnish shipping company Finnlines. The ferries will cut CO₂ emissions per transported cargo unit by more than 50pc compared with ships traveling on the same routes, according to Grimaldi Group. The Mediterranean ships will be able to hold up to 2,500 passengers, 300 cars and will have 3,300 freight lane meters. The Baltic ferries will be able to carry 1,100 passengers, 90 cars and have 5,100 freight lane meters. China Merchants Jinling Shipyard is set the deliver the vessels from 2028-2030. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs


25/04/04
25/04/04

US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs

Houston, 4 April (Argus) — US polyethylene (PE) traders are concerned that retaliatory tariffs announced this week by China and being considered by the European Union will close the door to two of the biggest markets for US resin exports. China announced today it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, while the EU is in the process of finalizing countermeasures this week, all in response to widespread tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April. "This closes off China," said one US export trader. "And it looks like a full stop in Europe too." The US exported 2.4mn t of PE to China in 2024, representing 16.8pc of total US PE exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. Exports to the EU totaled 2.26mn t, representing 15pc of all US exports. US PE exports in 2024 totaled 14.2mn t, with exports representing 47pc of total sales last year. During the previous Trump administration, China provided waivers for certain tariffs, including on some PE grades. Some market participants have said that may be possible again, while others have said they see it as less likely, as China has become more self-sufficient, and has other alternative suppliers, such as the Middle East. "(China) is in a better position to impose tariffs on PE today than they were in 2018," said one North American PE producer. It will be difficult for US producers to make up for the loss of market share in China and the EU, which could result in producers needing to slow operating rates. For now, markets in Africa, Latin America and southeast Asia, remain open for US material, but traders are concerned that other top trading partners could also retaliate against the US, closing off additional markets. "There are not enough places to go with this stuff," the trader said. With limited export opportunities, the North American PE producer agreed that production would likely need to slow to keep material from backing up in the domestic market and causing domestic prices to fall. "The last time we saw tariff action from China, there was an impact on the domestic market," the producer said. "Pricing went down." For this week, US PE export pricing has held fairly steady as the market absorbs the tariff news. But market participants said they believe prices could move down in the coming weeks if production is not slowed. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US-origin PE, PP appear in provisional UK tariff list


25/04/04
25/04/04

US-origin PE, PP appear in provisional UK tariff list

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) imports from the US in a list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. All PE and PP HS codes appear on the list published on 3 April. The document is at this stage for consultation and only indicative of goods that could fall under the review. No details are known so far on the tariff levels nor when they could be implemented, although the deadline for responses is 1 May. This comes after US President Donald Trump's announcement on 2 April of a minimum 10pc global levy on imports from all trade partners, in addition to existing levies. The tariff on imports from the UK is 10pc, and from the EU 20pc. The UK imported 173,000t of PE from the US in 2024 and 7,000t of PP. LLDPE under HS code 390140 was omitted from the UK tariff list, a grade which accounts for 45pc of all UK PE imports from the US. This means that 96,000t of PE would fall under the provisional tariffs. The UK has "a range of levers" at its disposal for responding to the US' levies and will continue speaking with Washington on an "economic prosperity deal", UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on 3 April. The import tariffs imposed by the US on 2 April present a "significant risk" to the global economy, according to the IMF . President Trump is holding firm on the tariffs , even as US stock prices tumble, but other US politicians are less convinced. The US Senate is attempting to block tariffs , but legislative action is unlikely to become law. By Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Little impact on Brazil polymers from US tariffs


25/04/03
25/04/03

Little impact on Brazil polymers from US tariffs

Sao Paulo, 3 April (Argus) — The overall 10pc tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian exports on 2 April are unlikely to significantly impact Brazil's polymers industry, as polymers exports to the US are minimal. Brazil's polypropylene (PP) exports to the US during January-February 2025 hit 1,964t, down 22pc when compared with the same period of 2024, according to data from Brazilian trade ministry database Comexstat. The figure represents just 5pc of Brazil's total PP exports in the period, with the US ranked at the 12th most important destination. In polyethylene (PE), Brazil exported 1,335t to the US during Jan-Feb 2025, down 30pc year over year. This represents 1pc of Brazil's PE exports in the first month, with the US ranked 18th. There were no exports from Brazil to the US related to polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyethylene thereftalate (PET), expanded polystyrene (EPS), and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) in January and February. However, Braskem, a Brazilian petrochemical company and the largest producer of thermoplastic resins in the Americas, felt the tariffs' impact on its shares today. Braskem's shares experienced a decline at the São Paulo stock exchange B3, with the stock trading at BRL 10.31 ($1.84) at noon, down 2.46pc from its previous close of BRL 10.57. In intraday performance the stock opened at BRL 10.50, reaching a high of BRL 10.84 and a low of BRL 10.30. The movement reflects ongoing market volatility and investor sentiment surrounding the company. The Brazilian government criticized the US decision, describing the additional 10pc tariff as a violation of the country's commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The measure adds to previous 25pc tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, further complicating Brazil's trade portfolio with the US. US trade surplus According to Brazil's foreign relations ministry (MRE), US government data indicates that the US achieved a $7bn trade surplus with Brazil in goods in 2024. When including services, the surplus totaled $28.6bn, making Brazil the third-largest contributor to the US's global trade surplus. Over the past 15 years, the US has consistently recorded significant surpluses with Brazil, amounting to $410bn in goods and services. The US rationale for the 10pc tariff — to restore balance and achieve "trade reciprocity" is inconsistent with the reality of enduring trade surpluses, the ministry said. In response, Brazil intends to collaborate with its private sector to protect domestic workers and companies while defending the multilateral trade system. The Brazilian government stated that it remains open to dialogue with the US to reverse the tariffs and minimize their harmful effects. At the same time, it is evaluating all possible actions to ensure reciprocal trade relations, including appealing to the WTO. The government highlighted the recent approval of the Economic Reciprocity Bill by the Congress, reinforcing its willingness to adopt reciprocal measures if necessary. Anti-dumping duties possible The Brazilian government on 14 November opened a possible measure relating to an anti-dumping investigation against PE resins imported from the US and Canada. Trump's promises to protect US industries have created uncertainties about whether Brazil would want to move forward with PE anti-dumping duties, but now it could be used as a possible retaliation for the new tariffs. In 2024, total PE imports in Brazil reached 1.959mn t, increasing 40pc year on year, with North America representing 77pc of market share. By Fred Fernandes and Terezinha Miranda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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