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Viewpoint: Trade war may upend US coke prospects

  • : Petroleum coke
  • 24/12/31

A possible renewed and expanded global trade war in president-elect Donald Trump's second term could lead to retaliatory tariffs from the US' major petroleum coke export destinations, pressuring US Gulf coast coke prices and adjusting trade flows.

Trump campaigned on plans to impose tariffs of up to 60pc on imports from China, reviving memories of his trade policies in 2018 and 2019 that chilled coke trade with the country. He has also threatened to add 25pc tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and up to 20pc on imports from all other countries.

It is far from certain Trump will follow through on all his tariff threats once he does take office, or that they will be as large as he has promised. But if he does, China could repeat its retaliatory response to the prior Trump tariffs. And if other countries join in on those retaliatory measures, US coke exporters could face even more challenging conditions than in the past.

First term fight

In June 2018, the Trump administration announced plans for a 25pc tariff on what was then $34bn/yr of Chinese imports. Later that month Beijing retaliated, announcing a punitive 25pc tariff on US exports of fuel and calcined coke, thermal and coking coal and many other products. Total tariffs on greater-than-3pc-sulphur green coke, the US' largest grade exported to China, ultimately reached 33pc.

The dueling tariffs led to significant shifts in US Gulf high-sulphur coke markets. Green coke exports from the US Gulf coast to China dropped by nearly 60pc year over year in 2018 to 638,000t, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data, as no US Gulf coke shipments loaded for China from July-October. US Gulf export volumes to China stayed nearly flat in 2019 before surging back to 1.8mn in 2020 after China began issuing exemptions for its green coke tariff.

US Gulf high-sulphur coke prices also started to fall sharply late in the third quarter of 2018 after China's retaliatory tariff came into effect in late August, while Indian and Turkish demand also fell. The average price of US Gulf 6.5pc sulphur coke dropped significantly in 2019, down by $27/t year over year.

US coke exports to other countries were also hurt during that time. Turkey imposed a tariff on US-origin coke imports in 2018 after Trump doubled tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium imports. US Gulf coke exports to Turkey fell by almost 50pc in 2019 compared with the year prior.

Although some analysts think it is unlikely China will retaliate to tariffs as aggressively as it did during the first Trump term, Beijing would likely still target select industries. Coke could be high on this list, as these tariffs are still officially in effect and the government could easily withdraw the exemptions it has issued since 2020.

A wider battlefront

Trump's threat to issue tariffs against other countries in his second term, including 25pc tariffs on imports from top US trading partners Mexico and Canada, could lead to even more challenges. Already, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum have indicated that they could retaliate if the US goes through with Trump's plans.

While Canada has only taken about 800,000 t/yr of US coke since 2021, Mexico has been a large consumer. The US' southern neighbor has been the fourth-largest offtaker of US Gulf coast coke so far this year. It was the largest in 2018 and 2021 and second-largest in 2019 and 2020, helping to absorb some of the lost demand from China, alongside India, Brazil, Turkey and Italy.

India has typically been the biggest offtaker of US Gulf coke in recent years, and it has increased its share of US Gulf exports to 24pc in January-October of this year from 14pc in 2022. This step-up in US coke shipments to India followed a significant drop in China's higher-sulphur fuel coke demand over the past two years, especially since the government began signaling in late May that it would limit its consumption, as well as an increase in Indian cement makers' use of coke in their kilns.

While India is likely to absorb even more US Gulf coke if Chinese demand declines further, India already took 20pc more of this coke in 2023 than it did in 2019. This suggests that new buyers may have to come into the market for the potential overhang in next year's US Gulf coast supplies to be worked down. This will only occur if US coke remains at a wide discount to coals from countries like South Africa, Australia and Indonesia in order to encourage more coal consumers to make the switch to coke.

If a wider trade war results in India implementing tariffs on US coke, sellers might prefer to sell to other destinations, particularly in the Atlantic basin, rather than discounting coke deeply enough to draw more Indian demand.

No help from Europe

But while European countries like Italy, Spain, France and Greece were top importers of US Gulf coke in 2018 and 2019 when Chinese demand dropped, these countries are not as well-positioned to absorb more coke now.

Cement makers in the region have invested in alternative fuels over the last few years as the EU Emissions Trading System has increased the price of carbon emissions, lowering their overall appetite for fossil fuels. The US exported 31pc less coke to Europe in 2023, at 4.4mn t, than it did in 2018, at 6.4mn t.

Top USGC coke export destinations 2017-2020 mn t

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25/04/03

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India allocates coke import quotas for FY2025-26


25/04/03
25/04/03

India allocates coke import quotas for FY2025-26

Singapore, 3 April (Argus) — India has allocated more import quotas of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) from a year earlier for the April 2025-March 2026 fiscal year, while allocations of green petroleum coke (GPC) quota to calciners are marginally lower on the year. India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), which is part of the commerce and industry ministry, allocated a CPC import quota of 775,000t in a meeting last month, according to minutes reviewed by Argus . This was up from 500,000t in 2024-25. The DGFT allocated about 1.87mn t of GPC quota for 2025-26, marginally below the 1.9mn t granted for previous year. This quota was distributed among 25 calciners, with Rain CII Carbon securing the highest allocation of 462,589t for 2025-26, while fellow calciner Sanvira was granted permission to import 374,477t. Goa Carbon was granted a quota of 274,354t, while Paradip Calciner received a quota of 106,993t. Petro Carbon was given a quota of 83,583t, while Neo Carbons got an approval for imports of 66,871t. Brahmaputra Carbon and Guwahati Carbon secured 50,000t each. India Carbon (West Bengal) was granted a quantity of 49,563t, while India Carbon (Guwahati) received 43,828t. The remaining quota was distributed among 15 other calciners. The DGFT made the allocations in proportion to calciners' production capacity. In cases where calciners sought less than they were eligible for, the surplus was proportionately distributed among all the applicants. But in most of these cases, the allocated quantity was down from last year. The 775,000t CPC quota for 2025-26 was made to four aluminium smelters — Vedanta, Bharat Aluminium, Hindalco Industries, and state-controlled producer Nalco. Vedanta received 336,608t, Hindalco 262,126t, Bharat Aluminium 116,265t, and Nalco 60,000t. The GPC quota for calciners was hiked by 500,000 t/yr to 1.9mn t/yr from the 2024-25 fiscal year onwards, following a February 2024 order by the Commission for Air Quality Management. The order also raised the CPC quota to 800,000 t/yr with effect from the 2025-26 fiscal year, from 500,000 t/yr previously. Calciners and smelters are expected to purchase seaborne GPC and CPC based on these quotas and complete imports before 31 March 2026. Companies that are unable to fully utilise the approved quota must inform the DGFT by 31 October so that the unused quota is redistributed among other companies. Higher domestic supplies limit CPC imports A sharp increase in domestic CPC output and supplies in the last fiscal year, because of higher GPC import quotas and a price advantage compared to the seaborne market, limited smelters' imports of CPC. Most smelters were not able to use the allocated import quotas last year, said a market participant. It is unlikely that smelters would be able to entirely utilise the increased quota this year, he added. A higher CPC supply is already reducing India's demand for CPC imports from regions like China and the Mideast Gulf. Indian smelters are also finding themselves in a stronger position to negotiate domestic purchases and imported cargoes, with companies choosing domestic supply over imports from China. "This is an unusual situation as imported cargoes have been historically cheaper," one said. Meanwhile, domestic calciners are expected to continue to be aggressive in their pricing because of increased capacity use and higher economies of scale. Most imports will be done on a case-to-case basis when it offers a quality or price advantage, said another participant. Smelters received 350,800t of CPC over April 2024-February 2025, according to data from shipbroker Interocean. This was down from 491,000t a year earlier and well below the quota of 500,000t for the year ended 31 March. March data was not yet available but the total for 2024-25 should still be well below the quota. By Ajay Modi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit


25/03/20
25/03/20

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar


25/03/19
25/03/19

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

London, 19 March (Argus) — Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets. The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day. The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation. Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024. By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

St Louis harbor water levels to improve


25/03/04
25/03/04

St Louis harbor water levels to improve

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — Water levels at the St Louis, Missouri, harbor are forecast to rise above 0ft this week, the National Weather Service (NWS) said, allowing for easier barge transit at the harbor after weeks of low water concerns. St Louis is forecast to receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms today, including some hail, with around 1 inch of precipitation expected to pour over the greater St Louis area, according to the NWS. As water from the tributaries reaches the harbor into this weekend, levels as high as 10.7ft are expected by 11 March. This rain is long awaited as the St Louis harbor has been grappling with low water conditions since early January. These conditions were exacerbated by minimal rainfall in February, causing water levels to fall below -3ft at the terminal. Some barge carriers will finally be able to resume loading at their docks after calling off all barge movement due to the low water. Draft restrictions are anticipated to slowly loosen in the coming days as water levels rise, and more weight can be placed on barges. Current draft restrictions are between 9.6-10ft at St Louis. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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