Viewpoint: Trump, macro issues ahead for US renewables

: Electricity, Emissions
25/01/02

A combination of substantial policy shifts under president-elect Donald Trump and macroeconomic issues puts the US renewable power sector on uncertain footing to begin 2025.

Analysts expect the federal tax credits that have bolstered new renewable generation during its substantial growth over the past decade will survive in some fashion, although Trump campaigned on repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). He also has promised 60pc tariffs on goods imported from China, a major player in the solar and battery storage supply chains.

The ultimate effects may vary by project type and what the new administration is able to accomplish.

Chinese solar products already face 50pc tariffs, which could temper any effects on the industry from Trump's protectionist trade policies, said Tom Harper, a partner at consultant Baringa specializing in power and renewables. But the new administration could make it more difficult to claim IRA incentives and could roll back federal power plant emissions rules, creating an environment that could slow the adoption of renewables.

Utilities may become more cautious in using renewables because of higher costs, while others, such as companies with sustainability goals, might be able to weather the change, according to Harper.

"There might be some very price insensitive corporate [power purchase agreement] buyers out there who are looking at a $45/MWh solar [contract] and now it's going to be $50/MWh after the tariff, and they'll be fine," he said.

In addition, the US renewables industry is still weathering headwinds from supply chain constraints, increased borrowing rates and inflation, which have hampered new projects. For example, the PJM Interconnection — which spans 13 mostly Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia — had approved more than 37,000MW of generation at the end of third quarter 2024, with only 2,400MW of that partially in service. Developers have blamed the delays on financing challenges, long lead times for obtaining equipment and local opposition to projects.

Global problems, local solutions

Changes to state procurement strategies could help. Maryland state delegate Lorig Charkoudian (D) next year will propose new state-run solar, wind and hydropower solicitations that would first target projects that have already cleared PJM's reviews. Her approach would echo programs in New Jersey and Illinois, and ultimately reduce utilities' reliance on renewable energy certificates (REC) procured elsewhere.

"The idea is to give a path for these projects, so presumably they can be built within a few years," Charkoudian said.

Utilities would use the new procurements for the bulk of their RECs, covering remaining demand by buying legacy Maryland solar credits and other PJM RECs on the secondary market.

But a quick fix for Maryland's broader renewable energy objectives is unlikely after utilities used the alternative compliance payment (ACP) for two-thirds of their 2023 REC requirements. The fee for each megawatt-hour by which utilities miss their compliance targets serves as a de facto ceiling on REC prices. Maryland's ACP is low compared to neighboring states, where the qualifying REC pool overlaps, meaning that credits eligible in the state can fetch a higher price elsewhere. While lawmakers could raise the ACP to mitigate those issues, those costs would ultimately fall on utility customers.

"As best as I can tell, the options are raise the ACP or adjust how we do it," Charkoudian said. "We're really concerned about ratepayer impacts, and so I don't think there's a real appetite to raise the ACP."

In other states, the policy landscape is less certain. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (D) has no clear path for his proposed hike to the state's alternative energy mandate, should he choose to revisit it, after Republicans retained their state Senate majority in November. New Jersey state senator Bob Smith (D) has been working for two years to enshrine in law governor Phil Murphy's (D) goal of 100pc clean electricity, but the proposal failed to escape committee in 2024 after dying in 2023 over opposition to its support for offshore wind.

Is the answer blowing in the wind?

Offshore wind is a slightly different matter.

Trump has been critical of the industry and federal regulators control much of the project permitting in the US. Moreover, as a burgeoning sector with higher costs, it could be more sensitive to the loss of the investment tax credit (ITC). Based on current expenses, Baringa's analysis suggests that losing the ITC could increase project costs by "at least" $30/MWh and push offshore wind REC prices in some cases near $150/MWh. That would be a "difficult cost for states to swallow", according to Harper.

"We've seen a few offshore wind developers already say, 'Hey, we're not going to spend a dime more until we know what's going on,'" Harper said.

Despite the challenging landscape, Charkoudian expects Maryland will move forward in areas it can control, such as expanding the onshore transmission, that will make offshore wind viable, whether it's now or "eight years from now".

By Patrick Zemanek

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25/04/02

Article 6 credits 'could provide CBAM cost flexibility'

Lisbon, 2 April (Argus) — Allowing the use of credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement for compliance with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could provide flexibility for developing countries that lack the capacity to set up their own carbon pricing systems in response to the measure, delegates at a conference in Lisbon, Portugal, heard today. The CBAM regulation provides for a carbon price already paid on a product in its country of origin to be deducted from CBAM costs, providing an incentive for countries importing products covered by the measure to the EU to introduce equivalent carbon pricing systems. But developing countries often lack the capacity to enact such policies, the chief sustainability and innovation officer at ACT Group, Federico di Credico, told delegates, and allowing the use of Article 6 credits for compliance could provide an alternative. This could in one form take place implicitly, di Credico said, if CBAM liabilities are adjusted down in relation to pricing systems that themselves allow some compliance using Article 6 credits. An example of this is Singapore, where 5pc of the country's carbon tax can be offset through the purchase of Article 6 internationally traded mitigation outcomes (Itmos). A more direct inclusion of Article 6 credits for compliance could entail a calculation on a euro-for-euro basis, di Credico suggested, for example reducing a CBAM liability of €100 to €50 if the importer has purchased €50-worth of Article 6 credits. Using a tonne-for-tonne basis would not work because the CBAM is not volume based, he said. But the uncertainty surrounding Article 6 credits means that their inclusion would bring an added layer of complexity to the CBAM, Cedric de Meeus of cement producer Holcim said. Article 6 credits are not usable in the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which forms the reference price for the CBAM, he pointed out, while not all activities producing Article 6 credits would be equivalent to the deep decarbonisation being carried out by European industry. It remains unclear how the EU will take into account carbon prices in other jurisdictions for the purposes of the CBAM. The CBAM regulation includes the ability to credit a "carbon price… effectively paid in the country of origin" but does not define what falls within this term, and the implementing regulation that will provide further detail on the matter has not yet been tabled. Article 6 of the Paris deal provides for two carbon pricing mechanisms allowing countries to collaborate voluntarily to reduce their emissions. Article 6.2, which is already fully operational, produces Itmos through bilateral agreements on emissions reduction or removal projects, while Article 6.4 establishes the soon-to-be-implemented Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm), a UN-regulated global carbon crediting system. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Transition technology draws energy R&D spend: IEA

25/04/02

Transition technology draws energy R&D spend: IEA

London, 2 April (Argus) — Public and corporate spending on energy research and development (R&D) is "trending upwards", with a focus on "low-emissions" technology, but venture capital investment in energy start-ups dropped last year, energy watchdog the IEA found. Government and corporate energy R&D spending increased to $50bn and over $160bn, respectively, in 2023 — the latest year for which full data are available, the IEA said. There are "early indications of continued growth in 2024", although the pace of growth has "slowed slightly" since 2022, it added. But "the momentum of investing in low-emissions energy technologies has been maintained", partly on the back of climate policy goals, the IEA noted. The share of "low-emissions" energy R&D spending has held at "roughly four-fifths of the global total" in recent years, the IEA said. It defines low-emissions energy as renewable power, grids and storage, energy efficiency, nuclear and "low-emissions fuels". Venture capital investments in energy start-ups totalled around $27bn in 2024, 23pc lower on the year, the IEA found. This reflects the "cyclical nature" of venture capital, as well as a drop in funding owed to inflation, but the trend "could have long-term negative impacts as innovators struggle to scale up high-potential technologies without access to affordable capital", the watchdog noted. The IEA also suggested that "the situation is compounded by uncertainties about political commitments to the climate policies that many start-ups depend on to drive demand". But venture capital financing rose in 2024 for start-ups focused on nuclear, synthetic fuels and carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), it found. CCUS and "novel CDR" — carbon removal — technologies have drawn more venture capital funding in recent years, and sector R&D "is being spurred on by private capital mobilised by carbon credits", the IEA said. There are multiple ways to capture and store CO2, but many are at very early stages, while most funding goes towards just two approaches — direct air capture and bioenergy with CCS, its report found. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

25/04/02

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Senior figures in Australia's upstream gas sector have hit out at plans for intervention in the heavily regulated industry, as debate continues on how to best address domestic supply shortfalls later this decade. The federal Coalition in March announced National Gas Plan including a 50-100 PJ/yr (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) domestic reservation system aimed at forcing the three LNG exporters based in Queensland's Gladstone to direct more supply to the eastern states' market. But oversupplying the market to drive down prices would destroy the viability of smaller gas projects, Australian independent Beach Energy's chief executive Brett Woods said at a conference in Sydney on 1 April. The domestic-focused firm, which will export some LNG volumes via its Waitsia project in 2025, warns that such a move by the Peter Dutton-led opposition would reduce export incomes while harming Australia's international reputation. The volumes impacted by the policy could reach around 900,000-1.8mn t/yr. Expropriation of developed reserves is equivalent to breaking contracts with LNG buyers and with the foreign and local investors that the country needs for ongoing economic security, Woods said on 1 April. Domestic gas reservation systems put in place by the state governments of Western Australia (WA) and Queensland, designed to keep local markets well supplied, were "clearly supportable", Woods said, but only future supply should be subject to the regulations. LNG terminals, which represent about 70pc of eastern Australia's total gas consumption and shipped 24mn t in 2024 , should not be blamed for the failure of governments to expedite new supply and plan for Australia's gas future, head of Shell Australia Cecile Wake said in response to the Coalition's proposal. Shell's QGC business supplied 15pc of its volumes to the local grid, with the remainder shipped from its 8.5mn t/yr Queensland Curtis LNG project, Wake added. Canberra has moved to promote gas use as a transition fuel to firm renewable energy in line with its 2030 emissions reduction targets, but progress has been slow as reforming laws appear to be hampering development . The state governments, particularly in gas-poor Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), must recognise the need for locally-produced supply and streamline the approvals processes, especially environmental permits, executives said. But despite pleas for an end to years of interventionist policy — including the governing Labor party's measures to cap the price of domestic gas at A$12/GJ , Australia's fractured political environment and rising cost of living has sparked largely populist responses from its leaders. A so-called "hung" parliament is likely to result from the 3 May poll , with a variety of mainly left-leaning independents representing an anti-fossil fuel agenda expected to control the balance of power in Australia's parliament. LNG debate sharpens Debate on the causes of southern Australia's gas deficit has persisted, and the ironic outcome of underinvestment in gas supply could be LNG re-imports from Gladstone to NSW, Victoria and South Australia, making fracked coal-bed methane — liquefied in Queensland and regasified — a likely higher-emissions alternative to pipeline supply. Several developers are readying for this possibility , which is considered inevitable without action to increase supply in Victoria or NSW, increase winter storages or raise north-south pipeline capacity. Australian pipeline operator APA appears to have the most to lose out of the active firms in the gas sector. APA chief executive Adam Watson this week criticised plans for imports, because relying on LNG will set the price of domestic gas at a detrimental level, raise emissions and decrease reliability of supply, Watson said. The firm is planning to increase its eastern pipeline capacity by 25pc to bring new supplies from the Bass, Surat and Beetaloo basins to market. But investment certainty is needed or Australia will risk needing to subsidise coal-fired power for longer if sufficient gas is unavailable to back up wind and solar generators with peaking power, Watson said. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG stocks at Japan’s power utilities rise

25/04/02

LNG stocks at Japan’s power utilities rise

Osaka, 2 April (Argus) — LNG inventories at Japan's main power utilities increased during the week to 30 March, as warmer weather reduced electricity demand for heating purposes and limited gas-fired generation. The utilities held 2.24mn t of LNG on 30 March, up by 22pc from a week earlier, according to a weekly survey by the trade and industry ministry Meti. This was higher by 51pc compared with 1.48mn t at the end of March 2024 and up by 10pc against 2.03mn t — the average end-March stocks over 2020-24. A seasonal rise in temperatures weighed on power demand, which fell by 12pc on the week to 87GW across 24-30 March, according to the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators (Occto). This resulted in a 24pc fall in gas-fired output to an average of 24GW during the period, the Occto data showed. Coal- and oil-fed generation also fell by 14pc to 23GW and by 21pc to 409MW respectively in the same period. The lower demand has created extra supplies to be sold on the wholesale market. This has weighed on day-ahead prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (Jepx) and worsened generation economics for the country's thermal power plants. Margins at a 58pc-efficient gas-fired unit running on oil-priced LNG supplies fell into negative territory, with the spark spread averaging at a loss of -¥2.28/kWh ($15.22/MWh) across 24-30 March, compared with the previous week's profit of ¥0.84/kWh. The 58pc spark spread using spot LNG widened the deficit, with the margin averaging at a loss of -¥3.79/kWh against the previous week's -¥0.80/kWh, based on the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia. Coal remained competitive in Japan's merit order. But the dark spread of a 40pc-efficient coal-fired unit also fell by 64pc on the week to an average of ¥1.63/kWh over 24-30 March, based on Argus' spot coal and freight assessments. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

25/04/01

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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