Argentina wheat harvest enters final stretch

: Agriculture
25/01/03

Argentina farmers have entered the final phase of the wheat harvest, following recent rainfall that slowed some progress, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage).

Wheat harvesting was 94.7pc complete in the week ended 2 January. The harvest advanced by just 6.2 percentage points on account of rainfall that limited progress in southeast Buenos Aires.

The national wheat yield was 3.03 t/ha, up from 2.99 t/ha in the week prior. Bage maintained its forecast for wheat production at 18.6mn t for the 2024-25 crop, despite the national yield increasing steadily each week.

Soybeans

Soybean planting also entered the final stages, advancing by 8 percentage points during the week to 92.7pc completed. Bage maintained its projection of 18.4mn hectares to be planted.

Soybean ratings dropped for the week, with Bage rating the crop as 53pc excellent, 43pc normal and 4pc poor. In the prior week, soybeans were rated as 58pc excellent, 38pc normal and 4pc poor.

Moisture conditions for soybeans were reported as 81pc optimal and 19pc normal, drier than the past week at 88pc optimal and 12pc normal. Most of the soybean growing areas did not receive the rainfall that wheat areas did.

Corn

Corn planting progressed by 6.5 percentage points during the week, reaching 87.4pc completion. Bage maintained its projection of 6.6mn hectares to be planted.

Rainfall in the south of Buenos Aires and in Cordoba improved the conditions for late-planted corn, but moisture conditions for corn declined nationally as much of the crop didn't receive rain amid high temperatures. Corn in south-central Argentina is starting to show signs of water stress, with some yellowing leaves and possible yield loss.

Bage reported corn moisture conditions as 81.5pc optimal and 18.5pc normal, compared to the previous week at 88pc optimal and 12pc normal.

Sunflower

Sunflower harvesting began in Argentina, with the first results having an average yield of 1.88 t/ha. Bage expects the remaining crop to have higher yields.

The sunflower crop was rated as 85pc excellent and 15pc normal for the week, little changed from the week prior. Ratings were significantly higher than this time last year, when the crop was rated as 44pc excellent, 45pc normal and 11pc poor.

The sunflower crop also didn't receive much rainfall for the week, with Bage reporting moisture as 62pc optimal and 38pc normal, down from 65pc optimal and 35pc normal in the prior week.

Bage said 32.4pc of the 2mn hectares of sunflower are in the reproductive stage, and that producers are beginning to worry about the lack of forecast rain.

By Rachel Nelson

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25/01/06

Turkey allocates SFS, SFO import quotas to buyers

Kyiv, 6 January (Argus) — Turkey has allocated import tariff quotas for sunflower seeds (SFS) and sunflower oil (SFO) for January-April to local buyers. Under the quotas, 1mn t of SFS and 400,000t of SFO are allowed to be imported at reduced import duties from 1 January-30 April. SFS within the allocated volume will benefit from 0pc import duty, while duties outside of the allocated quota are set at 12pc. For SFO, the allocated quota import duty is set at 20pc and at 36pc outside of the allocated quota. In August, Turkey introduced tariff quotas on SFS and SFO to allow local buyers of domestic products to benefit from lower import duties, while supporting Turkish farmers during harvest at the start of the 2024-25 marketing year (September-August). In November, the country reduced SFS duties further . Turkey is one of the world's largest importers of SFS and SFO, with the seeds used to meet the needs of the country's domestic crushing and refining industry. SFO is the most-consumed oil product in Turkey, with the country's local SFS production covering only about two-thirds of demand. Turkish SFS imports are projected to reach 450,000t this marketing season, up from 310,000t estimated for 2023-24. SFO imports are forecast at 1.25mn t in 2024-25, down from 1.49mn t in 2023-24, according to the US Department of Agriculture. By Kristin Yavorska Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US grain export sales slow along seasonal lines

25/01/03

US grain export sales slow along seasonal lines

St Louis, 3 January (Argus) — US export sales for corn, soybeans, and wheat were all lower by 44pc or more the week ending 26 December, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, as trading activity was limited by the holiday break. US corn export sales were the most active over the week as total export commitments rose by 780,000t. Gross sales to Mexico reached 220,000t, bring total export commitments to the country to 15.2mn t, up 9pc from the prior year. Gross sales to undeclared countries reached 200,000t over the week, but total commitments to undeclared countries fell as a combined 260,000t of previously undeclared sales were attributed to Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Columbia. Gross export sales of US soybeans reached 630,000t the week ending 26 December, bringing total US export commitments to 40.2mn t, or 11pc ahead of the prior year. Export sales were boosted by China, which purchased 300,000t over the week. In addition to new sales, 320,000t of previously undeclared soybean sales were attributed to China over the week, bringing total export commitments to the country to nearly 18.9mn t, down by 4pc from the prior year. While total soybean export commitments gained by 620,000t over the week, outstanding sales for export fell by 130,000t as the pace of sales being exported has remained very strong. Through 26 December of the US soybean marketing year, US soybean exports to China reached 16.1mn t, up by 12pc from the prior year. US wheat export sales saw the largest decline the week ending 26 December, down by 70pc from the prior week to 210,000t. This marks the lowest weekly export sales volume since May 2009. The largest purchases were made by Mexico and South Korea, which purchased 40,000t each, followed by Honduras and Thailand which purchased 30,000t each. While Mexico has remained the largest purchaser of US wheat since the start of the June-May marketing year, total export commitments to the country fell by 20,000t over the week as 60,000t of outstanding sales to the country were canceled. In total, 1.2mn t of US wheat sales to Mexico remain to be shipped, 38pc of US export comments to the country, or the largest share of export sales in more than ten years. Outstanding sales of wheat to Mexico accounted for 24pc of all US outstanding wheat sales, which reached 5mn t the week ending 26 December. Although Mexico remained the largest purchaser of US wheat, with an unusually large balance of wheat unshipped in the US, it is unlikely future cancellations would have a substantial impact on the overall US wheat market outlook. Currently the USDA projects US wheat exports will reach 23.1mn t over the marketing year, with more than half of those volumes shipped as of 26 December. Outstanding sales to Mexico account for only 5pc of USDA total export expectations. By Ryan Koory US weekly exports sales mn t Current marketing Year Next marketing year Weekly exports Net sales Cancelations Total commitments Outstanding sales Net sales Outstanding sales Soybeans 26-Dec-24 1.7 0.5 0.1 40.2 11.7 0.0 0.1 Prior week 1.6 1.0 0.1 39.7 12.9 0.1 0.1 WASDE 0.96* 49.7 Progress 0.8 5-yr ave 0.8 0.0 Corn 26-Dec-24 1.00 0.78 0.02 38.80 23.05 0.00 0.86 Prior week 1.12 1.71 0.15 38.02 23.28 0.01 0.86 WASDE 1.21* 62.87 Progress 62% 5-yr ave 53% Wheat 26-Dec-24 0.38 0.14 0.07 16.90 4.96 0.00 0.04 Prior week 0.38 0.61 0.07 16.76 5.20 0.01 0.04 WASDE 0.44* 23.13 Progress 73% 5-yr ave 73% 1% — USDA *52-week average WASDE rate Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brasil busca leilão de hidrovias e terminais portuários

25/01/03

Brasil busca leilão de hidrovias e terminais portuários

Sao Paulo, 3 January (Argus) — O governo federal planeja uma série de leilões de terminais portuários e hidrovias para 2025, totalizando R$8,5 bilhões. O Ministério de Portos e Aeroportos e a Agência Nacional de Transportes Aquaviários (Antaq) serão responsáveis pelos leilões, buscando parcerias público-privadas (PPPs) que aumentarão a eficiência e expandirão as opções de transporte do país. O Brasil espera realizar 21 leilões e uma concessão em 2025. Muitas áreas do país carecem de infraestrutura adequada para o transporte de grãos e fertilizantes e são altamente dependentes do transporte rodoviário para o fluxo de carga. Portos PAR14: O terminal do porto de Paranaguá, no Paraná, movimenta e armazena granéis vegetais sólidos, como soja, farelo de soja, açúcar, trigo e milho. O leilão está programado para o primeiro trimestre de 2025, com um investimento estimado de R$529,2 milhões e uma concessão de 35 anos. O terminal terá capacidade para movimentar 6,8 milhões de toneladas (t)/ano. PAR15: Esse outro terminal de Paranaguá se concentra na movimentação e armazenamento de granéis vegetais. O projeto prevê investimentos de R$293,2 milhões e terá capacidade para movimentar 4 milhões de t/ano. O período de concessão será de 35 anos e o leilão está programado para 21 de fevereiro. PAR25: Outro terminal em Paranaguá voltado para a movimentação e armazenamento de granéis vegetais. Com capacidade para movimentar 4,3 milhões de t/ano, espera-se que os investimentos cheguem a R$564,1 milhões. O terminal será concedido por 35 anos e o leilão está programado para o segundo trimestre. MCP01: Localizado no porto de Santana, no Amapá, movimenta granéis sólidos vegetais, especialmente madeira. O terminal foi objeto de um leilão realizado em 2018, mas nenhuma proposta foi apresentada e o projeto foi reavaliado. Um novo leilão está programado para o segundo trimestre, com investimentos esperados de R$84,6 milhões e um período de concessão de 25 anos. VDC29: Um terminal no porto de Vila do Conde, no Pará, com um investimento estimado de R$716 milhões. Terá capacidade para movimentar 7 milhões de t/ano, com foco na movimentação e armazenamento de granéis vegetais sólidos, especialmente soja e milho. O leilão está programado para o terceiro trimestre, com um prazo de concessão de 25 anos. POA26: No porto de Porto Alegre, no Rio Grande do Sul, será usado para movimentar e armazenar granéis sólidos vegetais e minerais. O período de concessão será de dez anos, com investimentos estimados em R$21,1 milhões. O leilão está programado para o terceiro trimestre. SSB01: O leilão desse terminal no porto de São Sebastião, em São Paulo, está programado para o quarto trimestre. O prazo da concessão será de 35 anos, com um investimento de R$544,8 milhões. Seu foco será a movimentação e o armazenamento de granéis sólidos vegetais e minerais, com uma capacidade estimada de 4,3 milhões de t/ano. IQI16: O terminal está localizado no porto do Itaqui, no Maranhão, com um leilão programado para o quarto trimestre. A área será dedicada ao armazenamento e movimentação de granéis minerais sólidos, especialmente fertilizantes. O período de concessão será de 25 anos, com um investimento estimado em R$63,9 milhões. Canal de acesso aos portos de Paranaguá e Antonina: O projeto de concessão da infraestrutura de acesso aquaviário aos portos do estado do Paraná é inédito no Brasil. O Capex é estimado em R$1,1 bilhão, com um prazo de concessão de 25 anos. O leilão está programado para o segundo trimestre. A concessão abrangerá as funções de administração portuária relacionadas à gestão da infraestrutura, expansão, manutenção e operação do canal de acesso aos portos do Paraná. Hidrovias Hidrovia do Rio Madeira: Importante para o transporte de grãos e combustíveis, tem uma extensão navegável de 1.075 km, ligando a cidade de Porto Velho, em Rondônia, a Itacoatiara, no Amazonas. A Hidrovia do Madeira movimentou mais de 10 milhões de t em 2023, mas pode movimentar mais de 25 milhões de t/ano, de acordo com a Antaq. Os termos do projeto de concessão ainda estão sendo desenvolvidos e o leilão está programado para o segundo trimestre, com um prazo de 10 a 20 anos. Hidrovia do Paraguai: A hidrovia é importante para o transporte de minério de ferro e soja. Tem 1.323 km de extensão e vai da cidade de Ponta Porã, em Mato Grosso do Sul, até a cidade de Cáceres, em Mato Grosso. A via movimentou mais de 7 milhões de t em 2023, com potencial para atingir mais de 25 milhões de t/ano, de acordo com a Antaq. A hidrovia também conecta o Brasil à Argentina, Uruguai e Paraguai. O modelo de leilão também está sendo desenvolvido e está programado para o quarto trimestre. O período de concessão seria de 10 a 20 anos. Por João Petrini Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Viewpoint: Supply concerns drive RSO backwardation

24/12/31

Viewpoint: Supply concerns drive RSO backwardation

London, 31 December (Argus) — Strong export estimates for Australian and Ukrainian rapeseed and canola could offset lower projected levels from Canada, but EU crushers are wary about a supply shortfall for the rest of their 2024-25 crop year. The European Commission forecasts EU 27 rapeseed production at around 17mn t for 2024-25, down from average of 18.2mnt in the previous four crop years. With the EU 27 average rapeseed crush at around 25mn t, based on data from vegetable oil association Fediol, the bloc will need to find 7mn t of rapeseed and canola on the import market for its needs, which include RSO production for transformation into biodiesel. Australia, Ukraine to fill the gap? Australia, which typically delivers 50-70pc of its canola exports to the EU, is forecast to export 4.1mn t in 2024-25, according to the country's agriculture department Abares. Estimates for EU rapeseed imports from major exporter Ukraine vary. The USDA FAS Kyiv earlier this year forecast rapeseed exports from the war-torn country at around 3.6mn t in 2024/25 — a 22pc increase from 3mn t in 2023-24 partly due to expectations of decreased domestic crush levels. Argus estimates this slightly lower, at 3.4mn t — a 6pc increase from its 2023-24 export forecast of 3.22mn t — all of which is likely to make its way to EU countries. But canola production in Canada, one of the EU's key suppliers, is forecast by Statistics Canada at the lowest since 2021-22 at 17.8mn t, probably resulting in an export shortfall compared with previous years. Increased domestic crush levels and rising demand in non-EU countries such as China, Japan and Mexico, which "generally have a willingness to pay more for quality product" according to the USDA — referring to non-GMO treated canola — could reduce EU-bound flows in the coming months. Current- and new-crop RSO in steep backwardation The forward structure between rapeseed oil (RSO) fob Dutch mill current-crop 2024-25 contracts — comprising spot 5-40 days loading and February-March-April (FMA) and May-June-July (MJJ) RSO strips — and the August-September-October (ASO) new-crop contract for 2025 has moved into an unusually steep backwardation in recent months, driven by concerns about rapeseed availability before the start of the 2025-26 crop year. Argus' assessments for the ASO strip were at an average discount of around €80/t ($84/t) to FMA and MJJ contracts as of 13 December. This compares with a curve that saw current- versus new-crop contracts in contango through December 2022 and 2023. This means biodiesel producers will probably have to continue to work with thin margins. Although rapeseed oil methyl ester (RME) fob ARA range prices have followed RSO prices higher, comparatively larger gains on the feedstock outlay have pressured operations. The price spread between spot RME and RSO prices averaged $150/t in the first of half of December, compared with around $200/t in the same period of 2023. Looming agricultural trade barriers Global agricultural trade barriers that have either begun or are planned will be decisive drivers of global vegetable oil prices and trade flows in the new year. China said in September it would start an anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada. Canola exports from Canada to China are usually between 2mn-4mnt. Indonesia plans to introduce a B40 biodiesel blending mandate in 2025 and has already introduced export permit requirements on palm oil residues, which has sent Malaysian palm oil futures to multi-year highs. In the US, president-elect Donald Trump's announcement about the imposition of 25pc tariffs on all US imports from Canada and Mexico has lead to volatility in the wider vegetable oil complex as well. By Madeleine Jenkins EU rapeseed imports by country of origin mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle

24/12/30

Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — US biofuel producers' demand for soybean and canola oil has waned recently, a trend that looks unlikely to reverse in the near term because of domestic policy changes that prioritize lower carbon intensity feedstocks. Expectations that a US renewable diesel boom would drive up demand for vegetable oil led agribusinesses to announce new soybean crush plants and expansions in 2022. Seven new soybean crush plants have come online since then, increasing US nameplate capacity by 10pc to 2.91bn bushels/yr, but new policies have diverged from crop-based feedstocks because of their higher carbon intensity. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to adopt new low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) targets on 6 November. CARB hiked the carbon-intensity reduction target of California's transportation fuels from 20pc to 30pc by 2030, in hopes of balancing the pool of oversupplied LCFS credits, which alone reduced incentives for crop-based fuels. But more critically, the new rules will impose tighter restrictions for crop-based feedstocks, capping a company's LCFS credit generation from vegetable oil-based biofuel at 20pc/yr, starting in 2028 for existing plants. Apart from that, CARB will require producers to track the point of origin of crop-based feedstocks, adding to costs. Soybean oil-based biofuel already fetches a lower LCFS credit value in California, and the additional traceability requirement could further deter biofuel producers. Soybean oil- and canola oil-based fuel made up approximately 20pc of the biodiesel and renewable diesel traded into California during the second quarter of 2024, according to CARB's most recent quarterly data. While soybean oil is the most used feedstock in US biodiesel production, used cooking oil (UCO) leads US renewable diesel production. Biofuels produced with lower carbon-intensity feedstocks like UCO, tallow and distillers corn oil receive generous LCFS credits compared to soybean oil and canola oil. That credit premium has led to a surge in UCO and tallow imports into the US , weighing on demand for soybean oil and leading to outcry from farm groups to restrict foreign feedstocks from qualifying for the Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC). More challenging is the expiration of the blenders tax credit (BTC) by the end of 2024, which offers $1/USG to biomass-based diesel regardless of the carbon intensity of their feedstocks. The CFPC, also known as the 45Z credit under the Inflation Reduction Act, will replace the BTC in 2025. Unlike the BTC, the CFPC will provide a tax credit based on how low the carbon intensity of the fuel is to a baseline level of 50kg of CO equivalent/mmBTU. This means crop-based diesel fuels will receive far less credit value starting next year than they received for years under the BTC. Some renewable diesel and biodiesel producers are set to idle production in January amid a lack of clarity on how the tax credit changes will impact fuel and feedstock demand. Biofuel and agriculture groups are also waiting final guidance for "climate-smart agricultural practices" and how that would factor into the final 45Z credit for vegetable oil-based biofuels. These climate-smart practices might include no-till farming, planting cover crops, efficient fertilizer use, and more. The US Department of Agriculture recently sent guidelines on climate-smart agricultural crops used as biofuel feedstocks to the White House for final review, giving the industry some hope that they will qualify for a bigger federal credit under 45Z. But how much crop feedstocks will be able to close the gap with waste feedstocks is unclear. US soybean oil futures fell to 39.52¢/lb as of 27 December, down by 17pc from the start of 2024, weighed down by the prospects of a large South American soybean crop and lackluster demand from the US biofuel industry. The US Department of Agriculture's December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected Brazil's 2024-25 soybean production at 169mn t, 10pc higher compared to the prior year. Argentina soybean production was forecast at 52mn t, up by 7.9pc from a year earlier. Soybean planting is ongoing in both regions, with Brazil at 98pc completion as of 22 December and Argentina at 85pc as of 26 December. Some relief from falling soybean oil future prices has come from increased US soybean oil exports, driven by palm oil prices hitting their highest level since 2022. US export commitments for soybean oil were at 526,630t as of 19 December, nearly surpassing the US Department of Agriculture's currently projected level for 2024-25 marketing year. Mexico is among the major buyers of US soybean oil, but if president-elect Donald Trump imposes 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico , retaliatory action could affect soybean oil demand. Despite the support from soybean oil export sales, the vegetable oil industry will still need support from the US biofuel industry for prices to recover. And should palm oil prices fall, US soybean oil producers will not be able to rely as much on international markets, leaving them to lean more heavily on fighting for changes in US biofuels policy. By Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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