25/07/25
Rhenium surge: Speculation or fundamental shift?
London, 25 July (Argus) — Market opinion is split as to whether a surge in
rhenium prices over the past two weeks is being driven by short-term private
investor speculation or a structural demand shift in a growing industry.
Speculation rarely takes hold in niche, minor metal markets like rhenium. Most
of these metals do not trade on exchanges and purchasing is predominantly
through term contracts, supplemented by small spot volumes, with fundamentals
the key driver. The fact rhenium is the by-product of a by-product — it comes
from molybdenum, which comes from copper — means supply is not always flexible
enough to accommodate investor appetite or even prompt consumer top-up spot
purchases. The metal is not abundant — global supply is about 65t, rising to
about 85t when stockpile sales and recycling are taken into account — and it is
difficult and expensive to extract. So when Chinese buyers began making urgent
inquiries two weeks ago, it surprised some traders — and the unexpected demand
meant prices began to rise in China and on western markets. In Europe,
catalyst-grade ammonium perrhenate (APR) prices were assessed at $2,300–2,400/kg
duty paid Rotterdam on 22 July, up from $1,800–2,000/kg at the start of July. In
China, Argus -assessed prices for 69.4pc APR had risen to Yn9,000-11,000/kg
ex-works on July 22, up from Yn8,000-10,000/kg on 15 July, and 17pc up from 1
July. The initial increase was driven by private investor interest in the metal.
All of a sudden, rhenium was considered a ‘safe haven' for middle-class
investors in China. This mirrors recent investment in platinum group metals
(PGMs) fuelled by industrial uses and shifting investor sentiment. "Some
investors that profited by purchasing platinum at higher prices last month are
now shifting their focus to the rhenium market, hoping for similar gains," a
producer told Argus . Direct investment in rhenium coins and pellets is gaining
traction alongside its use in precious metal jewelry alloys. The surge of
interest from private investors ebbed this week, leaving the rhenium industry's
traditional players uncertain as to what caused this spike and what it means for
price direction going forward. "Because of the rise of PGMs, some people think
rhenium is the next best thing," a trader in Europe told Argus . "But this
market is not suited for speculation. "We've heard this before, and others in
the west got burned in the past… That's why there is not that much speculation
here." For some, the latest increase signals a structural market change. "The
rhenium industry has experienced a significant shift due to increased demand.
This is driven by a highly dynamic aeronautical industry, as well as new
applications in medical implants and defence," a producer told Argus . Other
market sources concurred. "We see the latest spike very well supported by
fundamentals, not just speculation," a broker said. Demand rises for new
applications Global rhenium demand has risen notably over the last year. China
has been hoovering up much of the global supply of rhenium, which is primarily
produced by Chile, for its burgeoning aerospace manufacturing industry. China
leapfrogged the US as the largest importer of rhenium from Chile in 2023, taking
26t — up from 2t in 2018 — according to UK-based trading firm Lipmann Walton.
That was equivalent to the annual primary production of main global supplier
Molymet. The US has historically been the largest importer for its aerospace
industry, with aerospace super-alloys typically accounting for around 75pc of
overall rhenium demand. Rhenium demand is also being boosted by US president
Donald Trump's pro-oil stance and his cuts to tax credits for renewable energy.
Rhenium is a key input for petroleum-reforming catalysts. Additionally, on the
global stage aerospace will increasingly need to compete with the medical
industry for rhenium. Rhenium-based alloys continue to find new uses as an
alternative to the stainless steel, titanium, nickel-titanium and
cobalt-chromium alloys used in medical implants. Although this has not disrupted
the market yet, it could cause further headaches for established consumers in
the future. Global rhenium product price increases have now slowed. In China,
some producers are not offering and are taking a 'wait and see' approach, Argus
has heard. There is still room for gains, market sources said, but not at the
pace seen this month. The surge may be over, but the rhenium supply-demand
picture is imbalanced, so spikes of the kind seen this month might not be
one-offs. The fact there is no straightforward substitution for rhenium
exacerbates the crunch, and this surge is arguably another wake-up call to the
fragility of metal supply chains — this time illustrated by a small, but
strategic market. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information
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