Combined Finnish and Baltic gas consumption rose by 9pc on the year in 2024, with demand higher in all four countries and Lithuania leading the increase.
Consumption across Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland totalled roughly 43.6TWh in 2024, up from 40TWh in both 2022 and 2023 but still well below the 2019-21 average of 67.2 TWh/yr (see combined consumption graph, data and download).
Demand increased across all four countries, but Lithuanian consumption rose the most in both absolute and percentage terms, jumping by 14pc on the year to nearly 17.1TWh. This was mostly driven by higher demand from fertiliser producer Achema and gas-fired power generators, transmission system operator Amber Grid's commercial director, Justas Cerniauskas, said. Achema, the region's single largest gas user, increased its consumption by roughly 1TWh on the year, while power-sector gas demand rose by around 600GWh, Cerniauskas said. Large consumers with direct connections to the grid consumed 9.8TWh last year, according to Amber Grid data, up from 8.4TWh a year earlier, while demand from the local distribution zone increased by a more moderate 600GWh. Lithuanian gas-fired power generation totalled around 820GWh, compared with 640GWh in 2023, data from Fraunhofer ISE show.
In Finland, gas-fired power production fell to 1.2TWh from 1.8TWh in 2023, as much stronger renewable output reduced gas' share of the generation mix. Renewable generation rose to 40.8TWh from 34.6TWh, with onshore wind accounting for almost the entire increase. Total Finnish gas demand rose by nearly 5pc on the year to just over 14TWh, despite the fall in gas-fired generation. Given that household demand accounts for a small part of overall consumption owing to the predominance of electric and district heating in Finland, this suggests that industrial demand continued its recovery. The paper and paper products sector is Finland's most gas-intensive, and appears to have performed better than in 2023 — output on a 2021 basis of 100 averaged 87.5 in January-October compared with 82.6 in all of 2023, data from Eurostat show.
In Latvia, the main demand driver is the power sector, particularly state-owned utility Latvenergo's large combined heat and power plants. Latvian gas-fired power generation rose by nearly 19pc on the year to 1.6TWh, as weaker hydro generation left more room in the mix for gas. In Estonia, the region's smallest consumer, gas demand rose by more than 8pc on the year to 3.7TWh.
Total gas-fired power generation across the four countries fell to 3.68TWh from 3.84TWh in 2023 (see table).
Combined sendout from the Inkoo, Hamina and Klaipeda LNG terminals totalled 43.4TWh last year, compared with 47TWh in 2023 and 32.4TWh in 2022 (see data and download). A six week dry-docking period for the Klaipeda floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) weighed on sendout in Lithuania, which was down by around 8TWh. Conversely, a long shutdown on the Balticconnector increased the call on Finland's Inkoo terminal to fill the supply shortfall in the first quarter. Sendout from Inkoo rose to 19.3TWh last year from 14.3TWh in 2023.
This pattern is likely to flip in 2025, with Inkoo's Exemplar FSRU due to undergo its own six week dry-docking, which in combination with extensive maintenance on the Balticconnector has left only slightly more than half the year's slots booked. This is likely to increase the usage of Klaipeda, where slots for 2025 are nearly fully booked.
There were net withdrawals from Latvia's Incukalns storage facility of 1.54TWh in the 2024 calendar year, flipped from net injections of 6.6TWh in 2023, and compared with 776GWh of withdrawals in 2022. Nearly 4.4TWh of gas was rolled over from the 2023-24 storage year into the next.
Total annual gas-fired power generation | GWh | |||
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
Finland | 4,170 | 1,790 | 1,810 | 1,230 |
Lithuania | 1,110 | 500 | 640 | 820 |
Latvia | 1,820 | 1,100 | 1,350 | 1,600 |
Estonia | 20 | 30 | 40 | 30 |
Total | 7,120 | 3,420 | 3,840 | 3,680 |
— Fraunhofer ISE | ||||
Numbers rounded to nearest 10 |