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Brazil’s inflation decelerates to 4.83pc in December

  • : Agriculture, Electricity, Oil products
  • 25/01/10

Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to 4.83pc at the end of 2024, as declines in power costs were only partially offset by gains in fuel and food, according to government statistics agency IBGE.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 4.87pc in November and compared with 4.76pc in October. The year-end print compared with 4.62pc in December 2023, but was down from 5.79pc in December 2022.

Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.69pc in December, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 7.63pc annual gain in November.

Beef costs increased by an annual 20.84pc in December following a 15.43pc annual gain for the prior month.

Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian's real depreciation to the US dollar, with the Brazilian real depreciating by 27.4pc to the US dollar between 31 December 2023 and the same date in 2024. Still, beef prices decelerated by 5.26pc in December alone, down from 8pc in November.

Soybean oil rose by 29.21pc over the year, an increase of 1.64 percentage points from November.

Fuel prices rose by an annual 10.09pc in December after an 8.78pc gain in November. Motor fuel costs grew by 0.7pc in December, compared with a 0.15pc drop in the prior month, thanks to higher gasoline prices. Diesel prices increased by 0.66pc in the 12-month period, while it decreased by 2.25pc in November.

Gasoline prices — the major individual contributor to the annual high, according to IBGE — rose by 9.71pc in December from 9.12pc in the prior month. Still, that was lower than in December 2023, when the annual inflation for gasoline stood at 11pc.

Power costs in December contracted by an annual 0.37pc in December, as improvements in power generation allowed for removal of a surcharge from customer bills, after a gain of 3.46pc the prior month. In November, Brazil faced lower river levels at its hydroelectric plants after a period of severe droughts.

Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below.

Brazil's central bank in December raised its target rate to 12.25pc from 11.25pc as the real's depreciation accelerated. It also signaled it is likely to increase the rate to 14.25pc by March.

Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.52pc in December from 0.39pc in November. But the rate was lower than in December 2023, when it stood at 0.56pc.


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25/01/10

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

Washington, 10 January (Argus) — US producers of low-carbon fuels can start claiming the "45Z" tax credit providing up to $1/USG for road use and $1.75/USG for aviation, following the US Treasury Department's release today of proposed guidance for the credit. The guidance includes proposed regulations and other tools to determine the eligibility of fuels for the 45Z tax credit, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace a suite of incentives for biofuels that expired at the end of last year. Biofuel producers have been clamoring for guidance from the US Treasury Department so they can start claiming the tax credit, which is available for fuels produced from 1 January 2025 through the end of 2027. "This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers," US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeymo said. "Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America." The creation of the 45Z tax credit has already prompted a change in US biofuels markets by shifting federal subsidies from blenders to producers. Because the value of tax credit increases for fuels with the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it could encourage refiners to source more waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil, rather than conventional crop-based feedstocks. While the guidance is still just a proposal, taxpayers are able to "immediately" use the guidance to claim the 45Z tax credit, until Treasury issues additional guidance, an administration official said. The guidance on 45Z released today affirms that only the producer for the fuel is eligible to claim the credit, not blenders. To be eligible for the tax credit, the fuel must have a "practical or commercial fitness for use in a highway vehicle or aircraft" by itself or when blended into a mixture, Treasury said. Marine diesel and methanol suitable for highway or aircraft use are also eligible for 45Z, as is renewable natural gas that can be used as a transportation fuel. Treasury also released an "annual emissions rate table" offering providers a methodology for determining the lifecycle GHG of fuel. Treasury said a key emissions model from the US Department of Energy, called 45ZCF-GREET, used to calculate the value of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to be released today, although industry officials said it may be delayed until next week. Treasury said it intends to propose regulations at "a future date" for calculating the GHG emissions benefits of "climate smart agriculture" practices for "cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks" for fuel. Those regulations could lower the calculated lifecycle emissions of fuel from those crop-based feedstocks and increase the relative 45Z tax credit. US biofuel producers said they are still awaiting key details on the 45Z tax credit, including the update to the GREET model. Among the outstanding questions is if the guidance released today provides "enough certainty to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements going forward", said the Clean Fuels America Alliance, an industry group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries. It is unclear how president-elect Donald Trump intends to approach this proposed approach for the 45Z credit, which will be subject to a 90-day public comment period. Trump has promised to "rescind all unspent funds" from the Inflation Reduction Act. But outright repealing 45Z would leave biofuels producers and farmers without a subsidy they say is needed to sustain growth, after the expiration last year of a $1/USG blender tax credit and a tax credit of up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Biofuel and soybean groups were unsuccessful in a push last year to extend the expiring biofuel tax credits. The 45Z credit is likely to be debated in Congress this year, as Republicans consider repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans have already asked for input on revisions to the 45Z credit, signaling they could modify the incentive. In a tightly divided Congress, farm-state lawmakers may hold enough leverage to ensure some type of biofuel incentive — and potentially one friendlier to agricultural producers than 45Z — survives. By Chris Knight and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US added 256,000 jobs in December


25/01/10
25/01/10

US added 256,000 jobs in December

Houston, 10 January (Argus) — The US added 256,000 nonfarm jobs in December, reflecting a robust labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Analysts had expected gains of about 160,000 jobs for December. The gains last month followed 212,000 more jobs in November, which were downwardly revised by 15,000, the Labor Department said Friday. Job gains in October were revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 jobs. The CME's FedWatch tool today showed 97.3pc probability Fed policy makers will keep the target lending rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5pc at the next Fed meeting at the end of the month, up from 93.6pc on Thursday. FedWatch shows nearly 60pc probability of no change through the May meeting, up from about 45pc Thursday. Unemployment edged down to 4.1pc in December from 4.2pc the prior month. Payroll employment gains averaged 186,000/month in 2024, for total gains of 2.2mn jobs. That was down from 251,000 jobs/month in 2023, for total gains of 3mn jobs that year. Health care added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000 jobs, government jobs rose by 33,000, social assistance increased by 23,000, and leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs. Construction added 8,000 jobs in December. Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs and mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing jobs grew by 9,600. Average hourly earnings grew by an annual 3.9pc following 4pc growth in November. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Union, US ports reach tentative deal: Update


25/01/09
25/01/09

Union, US ports reach tentative deal: Update

Adds comments from White House, retail industry. New York, 9 January (Argus) — Unionized port workers and operators of US east and Gulf coast ports and terminals have reached a tentative agreement on a new work contract, averting a strike that would have started next week. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) said the new six-year contract still needs to be reviewed and approved by members of both sides before it will be ratified. They have agreed to continue to operate under the current contract until the agreement is finalized. "This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coasts ports — making them safer and more efficient and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong," the ILA and USMX said in a joint statement. US president Joe Biden praised the deal, saying it shows both sides can settle their differences to benefit workers and their employers. "I applaud the dockworkers' union for delivering a strong contract," Biden said. "Their members kept our ports open during the pandemic, as we worked together to unsnarl global supply chains." The National Retail Federation (NRF) also lauded the deal after the group signed a letter last month urging the parties to resume negotiations. "Providing certainty with a new contract and avoiding further disruptions is paramount to ensure retail goods arrive in a timely manner for consumers," said Jonathan Gold, the NRF's vice president of supply chain and customs policy. Details of the agreement will not be released until after members have had time review and approve the deal, ILA and USMX said. The current contract was set to expire on 15 January after the parties struck a temporary agreement to end a three-day port strike in October 2024 . By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low


25/01/09
25/01/09

Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low

Mexico City, 9 January (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 4.21pc in December, the lowest in nearly four years, as slowing agricultural prices offset increases in energy, consumer goods and services. This marks the lowest annual inflation since February 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. Inflation slowed from 4.55pc in November, marking four months of declines in the past five months. It closed 2024 below the December 2023 reading of 4.66pc, as CPI continues to cool from its peak of 8.7pc in August/September 2022at the height of the global inflation crisis. The December headline rate slightly exceeded Mexican bank Banorte's 4.15pc forecast but aligned with its consensus estimate. Following the results, Banorte revised its end-2025 inflation projection to 4pc from 4.4pc and its core inflation estimate to 3.6pc from 3.7pc. The bank suggested that the data supports the possibility of earlier cuts in 2025 in the central bank's target rate, currently at 10pc. Citi Mexico's January survey of 32 analysts estimated a target rate of 8.50pc by the end of 2025, with the next cut of 25 basis points expected at the next central bank policy meeting on 25 February. The central bank is targeting annual CPI of 2-4pc. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.65pc in December from 3.58pc in November, marking the first uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration, according to Mexico's statistics agency (Inegi). Services inflation sped up to 4.94pc from 4.9pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.47pc from 2.4pc. Agricultural inflation moved to 6.57pc from 10.74pc in November, supported by favorable weather conditions. Banorte noted that the developing La Nina phenomenon could significantly impact meat prices in the coming months. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 5.73pc in December from 5.25pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. The industrial association Coparmex called for a review of Mexico's LPG pricing model, citing risks to supply and distribution. Electricity inflation decelerated sharply to 2.65pc from 22pc in November, reflecting the end of seasonal summer subsidies, while natural gas prices fell 5.67pc year over year. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Damaged Iver bitumen tanker set to return end-Jan


25/01/09
25/01/09

Damaged Iver bitumen tanker set to return end-Jan

London, 9 January (Argus) — A bitumen tanker damaged after a collision with a bulker five months ago is set to finish lengthy repair work by 23 January, and be back with its time charterer TotalEnergies at the firm's Donges refinery and export terminal on the French Atlantic coast on 26 January. The 6,189dwt Iver Blessing — part of Dutch Vroon Group's Iver Ships unit — was under time charter with TotalEnergies and was offshore the French Atlantic port of Nazaire when the accident that caused serious damage to the bitumen tanker happened. The vessel was en route to the company's 219,000 b/d Donges refinery to load its next bitumen export cargo in August 2024. The tanker has since undergone repairs at a shipyard in Flushing, Netherlands, that had been due to last 1-2 months, but there have been repeated delays, including difficulties in obtaining replacement parts. TotalEnergies is a key player in northwest European and Nordic bitumen cargo markets, and the prolonged repair work forced it to seek spot or other short-term tanker charters, mainly with Iver Ships, to maintain its shipping programme. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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