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Traders expect low uptake of 5-year Latvian gas storage

  • : Natural gas
  • 25/01/28

Market participants expect limited demand for a new five-year gas storage product that Latvian operator Conexus will begin offering later this year.

Conexus will offer a five-year product for its 25TWh Incukalns storage site for the first time ever on 11 February. This five-year offering will be in addition to the one-year bundled product already previously offered by Conexus, along with the storage transfer and interruptible capacity products. The two-year capacity product has now been discontinued and will no longer be offered, however.

All market participants surveyed by Argus expect weak demand for the five-year product, mostly because of unfavourable summer-winter spreads and traders' lack of willingness to commit to bookings that far ahead. Several respondents highlighted that only a limited pool of firms would be interested in planning their activities five years out. Most traders "do not look to the so distant future in the gas storage business", one said. "Not so many market players are ready to tie themselves to local gas markets for five storage cycles in a row," another said.

Several respondents criticised the product's rules, with one noting that it could even lead to storage utilisation falling, "considering the fines for inventory transfer between storage seasons". Traders would try to "squeeze out the pipeline/LNG supply potential, rather than over-injecting", they added. Another said they were concerned that the share of the overall storage capacity allocated to the five-year product was "too high" and would make it possible for some market participants to "hijack this very much needed capacity in a similar way" to what happens at the Latvian-Lithuanian border point of Kiemenai. Several traders have expressed frustration that annual capacity at Kiemenai has been fully booked but only a small part is at times used, blocking other shippers from accessing the capacity and resulting in low utilisation rates.

Another trader highlighted the product's limitation of only allowing a user to transfer up to 50pc of the total booked capacity from one storage cycle to the next without having to pay additional fees.

The previous set of capacity products has been "tested for years and proven to be working", another market participant said, arguing that "imperfect but certain conditions are better than uncertain ones".

One trader pointed out that a lack of interest in the five-year product could increase demand for the traditional one and two-year products, increasing the premium at these auctions further. Two other traders pointed out that given prevailing inverted summer-winter spreads, there is little financial incentive to book any capacity products, let alone make a five-year commitment. Ultimately, the "behaviour of local players is and will continue to be influenced by the closest summer-winter spread and the difference between this spread and the one-year storage tariff, not by long-term storage capacity of injection/withdrawal limits," one concluded.


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25/02/12

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

Singapore, 12 February (Argus) — India's demand for LNG is set to rise significantly by 78pc to 64bn m³ by 2030 to meet its rising demand for natural gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. This is up from 36.17bn m³ in 2024, according to IEA's India Gas report released at India Energy Week on 12 February. LNG imports would increase to account for 62pc of India's gas consumption, which is expected to hit 103bn m³ by 2030, it added. Imports accounted for 50pc of gas consumption in 2024, out of 72bn m³, oil ministry data show. The rise in demand would be backed by the rising city gas distribution (CGD) sector supported by the rapid expansion of its compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and gas in industrial use, the report said. Targeted strategies and policy interventions may also boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted level to around 120bn m³ by 2030, according to the report. The rise in LNG imports would necessitate additional LNG import capacity beyond 2025, IEA said. The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028, it added. This "may leave India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years," the report said. But production may not keep pace with demand. IEA expects India's domestic gas production, which currently meets 50pc of demand, to grow only moderately to just under 38bn m³ by 2030. India's gas output totalled 36bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. IEA expects overall production growth to be limited by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, which may offset the increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF) and from the additional supplies from ONGC's deepwater KG-D5 project. But India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8bn m³ by 2030, IEA said. Sectoral demand Gas demand for power and industrial sectors is expected to each take up 15pc of demand by 2030, equivalent to around 15bn m³ respectively, based on the normalised trajectory of consumption hitting 103bn m³ by 2030, IEA said in its report. Gas consumption from refineries is also expected to increase by more than 4bn m³ by 2030 as more refineries are connected to the grid, it added. Gas usage by refineries totalled 5bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show. But growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors remain limited, as there are no new gas-based capacity additions planned, it added. The think tank expects some new demand centres to emerge as a result of higher utilisation of India's stranded gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, more rapid expansion of India's CGD infrastructure, combined with the replacement of LPG with natural gas in the commercial sector. Challenging targets But IEA expects India's 15pc target of natural gas use in the primary energy mix will be challenging to meet, owing to India's gas development pathway prioritising affordability and energy security. "Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India, with natural gas vying against coal, oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors," according to the IEA report. Even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns, the report added. Competitive pricing is needed to enable natural gas adoption given the price sensitivity. By Rituparna Ghosh and Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit


25/02/11
25/02/11

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

London, 11 February (Argus) — BP today promised to "fundamentally reset" its strategy later this month after reporting a drop in underlying profit last year. The company alluded to what the reset might entail, noting that last year it had "laid the foundations for growth" by committing capital to new oil and gas projects and "refocusing" its investments in low-carbon assets. Details of the strategy shift will be outlined at a capital markets day for investors on 26 February. Key actions in 2024 included taking a final investment decision on the 80,000 b/d Kaskida oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico and raising its exposure to biofuels in Brazil . The company also took steps via a joint venture with Japanese utility Jera that will see it commit less capital to its wind energy investments. BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit — excluding inventory effects and one-off items — of $1.2bn for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $3bn a year earlier. For the full year, underlying replacement cost profit fell by 36pc compared with 2023 to $8.9bn, while cash flow from operations dropped to $27.3bn from $32bn. The company benefited from higher oil and gas production last year — up by 2pc on 2023 at 2.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But lower prices, a drop in refining margins and lower contributions from both oil and gas trading weighed on profitability. BP said it expects upstream production to be lower this year and refining margins "broadly flat". It expects a similar level of refinery maintenance in 2025, with the work "heavily weighted towards the first half" and the second quarter in particular. For now, BP is sticking with its share repurchasing programme, announcing a further $1.75bn of share buybacks for the fourth quarter. It has maintained its quarterly dividend at 8¢/share. The company's capital expenditure remained steady at $16.2bn last year. It will provide guidance on this year's investment budget at the strategy day later this month. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk


25/02/10
25/02/10

Natural gas industry hedges US-Canada tariff risk

New York, 10 February (Argus) — North American natural gas producers and LNG importers are evaluating their exposure to impending tariffs on Canadian gas flowing into the US, including how they could benefit from uncertainty around the policy. Marketers responsible for managing gas supplies across the US-Canada border and at least one North American LNG importer are holding internal meetings to discuss risks and opportunities related to the potential tariffs, according to sources who asked to remain anonymous because they are not allowed to speak publicly. President Donald Trump on 3 February delayed 10pc tariffs on energy from Canada and Mexico by a month, a day before they were set to be imposed. One of the largest US gas producers is reviewing its supply contracts with Canadian customers to evaluate its exposure to possible retaliatory tariffs by Canada, a person with knowledge of the matter told Argus . The company is particularly concerned with its ability to achieve price certainty given a lack of clarity around which party would pay the tariff and how such a transaction might be audited by regulators, the person said. Some large US gas producers are also looking to exploit the so-called "uncertainty premium" by strategically timing when they hedge their output — ideally, when rhetoric and anxiety over tariffs mounts, so they can lock in higher prices, sources in the banking sector said. Internal meetings to discuss potential tariffs are also being held at US utility Constellation Energy, owner of the Everett LNG import terminal near Boston, Massachusetts, sources said. Tariffs could make Everett LNG more competitive by modestly raising New England pipeline gas prices, thereby making LNG imports more economical when the price for local pipeline capacity is high. Tariffs could also hurt demand for gas from the Saint John LNG import terminal in New Brunswick, Canada, owned by Spanish energy conglomerate Repsol, since most of Saint John's imported gas supplies are shipped via pipeline across the US border into New England. Constellation and Repsol did not respond to requests for comment. New England relies on gas imported from abroad by Everett LNG and Saint John LNG during particularly cold winter days because of insufficient pipeline capacity connecting the region to prolific gas fields in Pennsylvania and the surrounding states. Goldman Sachs estimates Trump's 10pc tariffs on Canadian energy products would reduce Canadian gas exports to the US by about 160mn cf/d (5mn m³/d), while investment bank RBC Capital Markets said the tariffs could cause "mildly higher US gas prices". By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Energy Transfer to supply gas to planned data center


25/02/10
25/02/10

Energy Transfer to supply gas to planned data center

Houston, 10 February (Argus) — US energy infrastructure company Energy Transfer has reached a long-term agreement to supply natural gas to an artificial intelligence data center in central Texas. Under that agreement — Energy Transfer's first direct supply contract with a data center — the company will provide about 450mn cf/d (13mn m³/d) to Denver, Colorado-based CloudBurst Data Center's planned data center campus near San Marcos, Texas, for at least 10 years. That deal is contingent on CloudBurst reaching a final investment decision, which is expected later this year. The data center is scheduled to begin operations in the third quarter of 2026, Energy Transfer said. New energy-intensive data centers that run artificial intelligence software will be a key source of power demand growth in the coming years. Data centers were forecast to drive power demand in the commercial sector 2pc higher this year and lead to another 2pc increase in 2026, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Those additional power needs could lift gas demand by 3 Bcf/d or more by the end of this decade, according to some analyst estimates. Energy Transfer will provide the gas via the Oasis pipeline, a 1.2 Bcf/d line that connects gas supplies from the Permian basin of west Texas to demand centers on the Texas coast. That supply will be used to generate 1.2GW of power exclusively for the data center. Energy Transfer is in talks to supply other data centers along its network of natural gas pipelines. It expects the CloudBurst agreement to be "the first of many," the company said. By Jason Womack Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


25/02/10
25/02/10

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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