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US still eyes 1 February for Canada, Mexico tariffs

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas, Petroleum coke
  • 25/01/28

President Donald Trump is still keen to impose tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico as soon as 1 February, the White House said today.

Trump in multiple public comments since taking office on 20 January said he was still considering a 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico, even though his administration has yet to provide any details on the proposal.

Trump spent much of his meeting on Monday with Republican lawmakers at their annual retreat in Florida blasting Canada and Mexico over their allegedly unfair trade practices.

Tariffs should become a key source of income for the US government, just as they were in the nineteenth and early twentieth century before being supplanted by income taxes, Trump told the lawmakers, who are looking at ways to extend tax cuts enacted during his first term and set to expire at the end of 2025.

Trump also said he would impose tariffs on all imported computer chips, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Trump's messaging on China tariffs has been more mixed. He said last week he would go on with his initial plans to impose a 10pc tax on all imports from China, but he also said he preferred to avoid a trade war with Beijing.

An executive order Trump signed on 20 January lays out a process suggesting timelines of June-July for imposing tariffs on the US' key trading partners, with no reference to the 1 February deadline.

But Trump has the legal authority to impose tariffs on imports from any country by a variety of executive actions and with very short notice, as he demonstrated over the weekend during a high-profile confrontation with Colombia over deporting migrants from the US.

Trump told the lawmakers on Monday that he expects to wield the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tool often, because even "a very strong country" like Colombia caved in to his demands.

Canada and Mexico appear to be preparing for a protracted trade confrontation with the US if Trump follows through on his threat, with retaliatory measures targeting specific US products and companies.

The looming faceoff has unnerved the US oil producers and refiners, which are warning of severe impacts to the integrated North American energy markets if taxes are imposed on flows from Canada and Mexico to the US. Industry group American Petroleum Institute is lobbying the Trump administration to exempt crude and other energy products from any tariffs he plans to impose.

Trump last week shrugged off the arguments from the US energy industry about potential negative impacts from confronting Canada and Mexico.

"We don't need their oil and gas," Trump said. "We have our own, we have more than anybody."

Almost all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US through November are waterborne, targeting Gulf coast refiners, and can be diverted to Asia or Europe.

Canadian producers have much less flexibility — more than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Only around 900,000 b/d can be directed away from the US via the recently expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system to the Pacific coast, although late-2024 flows were actually closer to 400,000 b/d, split evenly between the US west coast and Asia.

Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude. US gasoline prices would move higher by 30-70¢/USG if the 25pc tariffs that Trump has threatened were applied to Canada's oil, Canada's TD Bank projects.

Trump's commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will face a confirmation hearing at the Senate Commerce committee on Wednesday, with trade wars likely to feature high among the questions lawmakers direct at him.


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25/02/13

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

London, 13 February (Argus) — The IEA said today that the Opec+ alliance's improving compliance with agreed crude production targets is "slowly chipping away" at its projected supply surplus this year. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency again lowered its forecasted surplus for this year, this time by 270,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d. This is the agency's third consecutive downgrade since November, when it saw 2025 supply outstripping demand by 1.15mn b/d. These forecasts are subject to change. With data now "largely complete" for 2024, the agency's balances show supply matching and demand exactly at 102.9mn b/d. This is a long way off the 800,000 b/d supply surplus the IEA forecast for 2024 this time last year. Opec+ is implementing three sets of crude production cuts, and is scheduled to start unwinding one of these — totalling 2.2mn b/d — starting in April. A recent meeting of the group's key producers signalled no change to this plan . The IEA continues to assume all Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year. But the agency said that should production return as planned, this would add 430,000 b/d to its 2025 supply forecast. Aside from Opec+, there are other key supply uncertainties this year. These range from new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil exports to US tariffs on some of its key trading partners. "It is still too early to tell how trade flows will respond to new US tariffs or the prospect thereof, and what the impact of the escalation of sanctions on Iran and Russia may be in the longer run," the IEA said. As thing stand, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.56mn b/d this year to 104.45mn b/d, compared with growth of 1.76mn b/d projected in its January report. This slower growth was largely driven by Opec+, which the agency now sees supplying 170,000 b/d less than previously thought this year. It also noted a 950,000 b/d fall in global oil supply in January, "with extreme cold weather hitting North American supply, compounding large declines in Nigerian and Libyan production." On demand, the agency upgraded its growth forecast this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d. It sees oil demand at 104mn b/d in 2025, driven by "a minor pickup in GDP growth and lower oil prices as per the current forward curve." The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 17.1mn bl in December. Crude stocks fell by 63.5mn bl and products stocks rose by 46.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show global stocks falling by 49.3mn bl in January, led by large draw in China. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


25/02/12
25/02/12

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi


25/02/12
25/02/12

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi

London, 12 February (Argus) — Italy is exploring the idea of lower EU gas storage targets, but no decisions have yet been made, the energy chief at Italy's environment and energy security ministry told Argus . A decision on whether to scrap, change or renew the EU rules implemented in 2022 that required a 90pc EU stockfill on 1 November last year and require the same this coming November could be taken in the coming weeks, energy department head Federico Boschi said. "The [existing] stockfill obligations end on 31 December 2025 and as such, there is space for either a halt, a change or an extension," Boschi said, without specifying whether Italy might advocate for a lower target on 1 November 2025 or beyond, or both. Asked whether Italy was seeking a capacity target for gas storage injections, Boschi said the government had also not yet taken a position. "As far as I know, we have no specific target in mind," he said. Filling storage capacity would benefit energy security, but it could also affect prices and favour speculation by increasing demand when it might otherwise be low, Boschi said. The EU stockfill regulations aim to ensure adequate winter gas reserves. But European summer-winter gas price spreads remain inverted out several years, providing no incentive to book storage capacity during that time. PSV summer 2025 prices closed €4.81/MWh above the winter 2025-26 contract on Tuesday. Seasonal contracts on Argus Italian curve do not extend beyond that, but EU benchmark Dutch TTF summer-winter spreads for storage years 2026-27 and 2027-28 closed at +€2.805/MWh and +€0.20/MWh, respectively, on Tuesday. Italy — the EU member with the second-largest storage capacity after Germany — has been looking at a raft of options to curb energy prices for businesses and households, which are among the highest in Europe. The Italian government approved legislation last week to bring forward storage auctions for the 2025-26 year to allow the market to book capacity if price spreads become favourable in February-March. Italian storage operator Stogit plans to offer 2.5bn m³ of capacity starting from 1 April across products lasting 1-5 years on 17 February-19 March. Compatriot storage operator Edison Stoccaggio plans to offer around 900mn m³ of 2025-26 capacity, but has yet to announce auction dates. In any event, the EU's Gas Co-ordination Group is scheduled to meet on Thursday and may discuss gas storage targets. By Stephen Jewkes and Jeff Kuntz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


25/02/12
25/02/12

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec


25/02/12
25/02/12

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

London, 12 February (Argus) — Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets. This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025". US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way. For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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