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US tariffs could shift Mexican HSFO to Panama

  • : Oil products
  • 25/01/28

Proposed US tariffs on Mexican goods would raise US costs for Mexican high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), potentially shifting flows of the country's marine fuel to the Central American bunkering hub of Panama.

US president Donald Trump has said he will impose 25pc import tariffs on goods from Mexico. US oil companies are asking Trump to exclude oil from tariffs, but it is unclear whether Trump will oblige.

Mexico's residual fuel oil exports reached a record high of 218,059 b/d in the first 10 months of 2024, according to data from Mexican state-owned Pemex. The US took most of Mexico's residual fuel oil exports during that period, importing 145,830 b/d from its neighbor, including 124,341 b/d that went to the US Gulf coast, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

Should Trump implement the 25pc tariffs, companies bringing Mexican residual fuel oil to the US could reduce bids in effort to recoup their tariff costs. But lower bids could prompt Mexican exporters to redirect some of residual fuel oil to buyers in Panama, northwest Europe and Singapore.

If the price makes sense, Panama bunker suppliers could displace some of their US Gulf coast import barrels with Mexican barrels, as Panama suppliers "are constantly out there hunting for the best price available in the international market", a Panama supplier told Argus.

Panama's HSFO bunker demand averaged 25,466 b/d (1.19mn t) in January-October 2024. The country does not have an operational refinery and is dependent on imports for all its oil product needs. Panama received the bulk of its residual fuel oil shipments from Mexico, the US Gulf coast and Peru, according to ship tracking data from Vortexa.

Trump has also promised unspecified actions to take control of the US-built Panama Canal in response to what he says has been unfair treatment of US ships, a claim that Panama president Jose Raul Mulino has rejected.


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25/02/11

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

London, 11 February (Argus) — BP today promised to "fundamentally reset" its strategy later this month after reporting a drop in underlying profit last year. The company alluded to what the reset might entail, noting that last year it had "laid the foundations for growth" by committing capital to new oil and gas projects and "refocusing" its investments in low-carbon assets. Details of the strategy shift will be outlined at a capital markets day for investors on 26 February. Key actions in 2024 included taking a final investment decision on the 80,000 b/d Kaskida oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico and raising its exposure to biofuels in Brazil . The company also took steps via a joint venture with Japanese utility Jera that will see it commit less capital to its wind energy investments. BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit — excluding inventory effects and one-off items — of $1.2bn for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $3bn a year earlier. For the full year, underlying replacement cost profit fell by 36pc compared with 2023 to $8.9bn, while cash flow from operations dropped to $27.3bn from $32bn. The company benefited from higher oil and gas production last year — up by 2pc on 2023 at 2.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But lower prices, a drop in refining margins and lower contributions from both oil and gas trading weighed on profitability. BP said it expects upstream production to be lower this year and refining margins "broadly flat". It expects a similar level of refinery maintenance in 2025, with the work "heavily weighted towards the first half" and the second quarter in particular. For now, BP is sticking with its share repurchasing programme, announcing a further $1.75bn of share buybacks for the fourth quarter. It has maintained its quarterly dividend at 8¢/share. The company's capital expenditure remained steady at $16.2bn last year. It will provide guidance on this year's investment budget at the strategy day later this month. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month


25/02/10
25/02/10

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

London, 10 February (Argus) — Nigeria's privately-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery could reach maximum operating capacity within a month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who said the plant touched 85pc of nameplate capacity at the end of January. The stated goal appears ambitious, with data from Kpler and Vortexa showing Dangote ran at an implied range of 395,000-430,000 b/d to date this month, which is between 61-66pc of capacity. The implied range was 350,000-400,000 b/d in January, or 54-62pc operating capacity. Argus pegged Dangote's crude receipts at 405,000 b/d in January, a record. Dangote runs may be boosted by upstream regulator NUPRC's decision in early February to ensure Nigeria's crude is supplied to meet domestic refinery demand, before it issues crude export permits. Routine maintenance at state-owned NNPC's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery could have made more domestic crude available for Dangote use. Crude allocations to Warri were cancelled and offered out to the wider market last week, according to a market participant. But this would have been a short-term measure, with a source saying the work at Warri was completed as of 9 February, and around 1.15mn bl of crude are scheduled to be pumped to the plant. Downstream regulator NMDPRA projected that Dangote will require 550,000 b/d of Nigerian crude grades for the period January–June 2025, while NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants will require 60,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d, respectively. Nigeria produced 1.51mn b/d of crude in January, according to Argus' estimate. Warri restarted at the end of 2024, having been offline since 2019. Diesel loadings from the refinery have averaged eight trucks per day, sources said last week, with sufficient supply available to sustain ongoing truck load-out operations. Warri has not started producing gasoline, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January


25/02/10
25/02/10

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices. This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall


25/02/10
25/02/10

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall

Hamburg, 10 February (Argus) — German consumers stocked up on heating oil in the first week of February as prices fell. Traded heating oil volumes reported to Argus jumped by almost a third on the week, and prices fell by almost €2/100l on average nationwide between 3 February and 6 February. Many consumers had held off from buying in the week before to see if prices would drop, traders said. Consumers were further spurred on by a drop in temperatures after a relatively mild January. Privately owned heating oil tanks nationwide reached their lowest level since the beginning of July on 6 February at just over 52pc, Argus MDX data show. Industrial diesel tanks were lower in January than in the previous five years. Diesel demand is still low, traders said. In the first six weeks of 2025, diesel volumes reported to Argus dropped marginally and imports have remained largely unprofitable. Production cuts in southern Germany have yet to lead to any significant product shortages, with domestic supply sufficient to cover demand. Both the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria and the Miro joint venture's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery continue to produce at reduced levels. They shut down portions of their production within days of each other because of technical problems. Production at Karlsruhe is not expected to return to normal levels until the beginning of March, a departure from the original schedule which saw production increase again in mid-February. Overall production is due to remain reduced in March even with the increase in Karlsruhe, however. The 125,000 b/d Vohburg site of the Vohburg-Neustadt refinery will be taken offline entirely for maintenance works, along with several units in the 90,000 b/d Neustadt site, which has yet to resume production after a fire on 17 January. OMV plans to take its 77,000 b/d Burghausen refinery in Bavaria offline for maintenance works at the end of March. The first of two permanent production cuts scheduled for 2025 will take place in March, when Shell will cease crude distillation at the Wesseling site of its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. The second permanent cut is due for the end of the year at BP's 258,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery in west Germany. BP said on 6 February it is seeking a buyer for the refinery, and said it will go ahead with the planned reduction in crude capacity nonetheless. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


25/02/10
25/02/10

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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