The "greening" of export credit agency's (ECA) finance which occurred in the past decade has largely bypassed developing countries, with investments mainly flowing to higher-income countries, according to a study on ECA transactions.
The study, carried out by researchers from the business schools HEC Lausanne, ETH Zurich and HEC Paris, shows that ECA energy finance going to lower-income countries dropped to below 30pc in 2022-23 from 47pc in 2013-15. ECAs, including export-import banks, are state-backed agencies that help national exporters finance deals abroad by providing guarantees or loans.
The share of ECA renewables commitments — mostly offshore wind and, increasingly, green hydrogen — rose to around 40pc in 2022–23, from under 10pc in 2013. The complete phase-out of fossil fuel financing appears "distant", the researchers noted.
While ECAs handle financing volumes "on a par with multilateral development banks such as the World Bank", the scope and direction of their energy investments have largely remained "opaque", the researchers said. The study is based on an analysis of almost 1,000 transactions between 2013-23 which financed energy-related infrastructure and were supported by ECAs. For some key ECA countries such as China or Canada, data is only partially available.
The study also reveals "notable" disparities between countries. Most members of the Export Finance for Future coalition (E3F), a group of European countries committed to aligning their export finance with the Paris climate agreement, have introduced stricter fossil fuel exclusions and are boosting their renewable portfolios. At the same time, major players like South Korea, Japan, and China have maintained significant levels of oil and gas lending.
OECD countries should introduce "more rigorous climate policies" and renew international cooperation, the researchers said, particularly with non-OECD countries such as China. The OECD — where ECA terms and conditions are negotiated — could relaunch the International Working Group on ECAs, they said, to help ensure that countries phasing out support for fossil fuels do not see their market shares grabbed by others.
Better renewable investment support via ECAs could help scale up the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance, set at a minimum of $300bn annually by 2035 at the last UN Cop 29 climate summit in November, the researchers said. And ECA mandates could also be broadened to accommodate the needs of lower-income regions.
"It is high time for ECAs to complete the shift to renewable energy, and through carefully designed policies and international cooperation, become true catalysts for a rapid and just energy transition," lead author Philipp Censkowsky from HEC Lausanne said.
