US growth slowed to 2.3pc in 4Q

: Metals, Natural gas
25/01/30

US economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter as falling private investment and exports offset gains in consumer spending.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to a 2.3pc annual pace in the fourth quarter, down from 3.1pc in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

Consumer spending in the fourth quarter rose to a 4.2pc annual pace, up from 3.7pc in the prior quarter and the highest rate since the first quarter of 2023. Spending on goods rose by 6.6pc from a year earlier and spending on services rose by 3.1pc.

Private investment fell by 5.6pc following an annual gain of 0.8pc in the third quarter. Residential investment rose at a 5.3pc annual pace after a 4.3pc drop in the prior quarter. Spending on equipment fell by 7.8pc after gaining 11pc in the prior quarter.

Government spending and investment slowed to a 2.5pc annual gain from 5.1pc in the prior quarter. Defense spending rose by 3.3pc after climbing at a 13pc pace in the third quarter.

Net exports in the fourth quarter fell by 0.8pc from a year earlier after a gain of 9.6pc in the prior quarter. Net imports fell on the year by 0.8pc.

US economic growth for full-year 2024 slowed to 2.8pc from 2.9pc in 2023. GDP in 2022 rose by 2.5pc.

By Bob Willis

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/03/05

Salzgitter declares force majeure on steel coil supply

London, 5 March (Argus) — German steelmaker Salzgitter has declared force majeure on coil shipments after a fire disrupted its only hot-strip mill. In a letter sent to customers on 4 March, the company said the fire broke out on 28 February for "reasons unknown to us", and production has been interrupted as a result. The company said its single hot-strip mill will "probably not be able to produce at full capacity until the fire damage has been completely repaired". Salzgitter is making "great efforts and taking extensive precautions to ensure" supply, and asked customers to accept quantities quickly and smoothly. The force majeure came as the coil market awaits the results of the European Commission's safeguard review, which is likely to curb import supply meaningfully. Argus' benchmark northwest EU HRC index rose to €621.50/t yesterday, up by over €100/t in the past six months, supported by probable import restrictions despite sluggish demand. Mills have been in no rush to sell recently, as they expect prices to increase further once the results of the review are public. Market leader ArcelorMittal is currently targeting €680/t base, with an intention to move up to €700/t, sources suggested. Salzgitter's share price rallied today, along with those of its peers, predominantly because of news that the German government will look to lift its debt brake and launch a €500bn infrastructure fund. The company's share price was up by over 13pc today, as of 10:37 GMT, at €22.98. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump aide signals possible retreat on tariffs

25/03/04

Trump aide signals possible retreat on tariffs

Washington, 4 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's top trade adviser on Tuesday signaled a possible hasty retreat on Canada and Mexico tariffs that roiled financial and energy markets and drew threats of retaliation from the US' neighbors. The US on Tuesday imposed a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. The moves drew strong condemnation from the other governments and industry groups throughout North America. The US administration has been in talks with the governments of Canada and Mexico all day and Trump "is going to work something out with them," US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said in a televised interview late afternoon on Tuesday. "It's not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff, but I think he's going to figure out, you do more, and I'll meet you in the middle some way and we're going to probably be announcing that tomorrow." Lutnick suggested that Trump could possibly "give relief" to products covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement negotiated in his first term. "If you haven't lived under those rules, well then you got to pay the tariff," Lutnick said. Nearly all trade between the three countries is covered by the USMCA, so a return to the terms of that agreement would merely mean lifting the tariffs Trump imposed on Tuesday. Lutnick's remarks may be an attempt to mitigate the negative market reaction to Trump's tariffs. The S&P 500 index fell on Tuesday to the lowest point since Trump won the election to his second term in November. US refining and petrochemical industry group AFPM has urged the Trump administration to find a resolution quickly to prevent what would be a continent-wide trade war. Ottawa and Mexico City vowed a strong response to Trump's tariffs. "This is a very dumb thing to do," Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday. Trudeau retaliated with a 25pc tariff on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days. The largest Canadian provinces, Ontario and Quebec, separately announced possible retaliatory measures in the form of taxes or curbs on electricity exports to the US. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum called the US' tariff on all Mexican goods unjustified but is withholding details of her government's planned counter-tariffs and other measures until Sunday. Trump, Lutnick and other US Cabinet members gave confusing signals on the level of tariffs ahead of their imposition, with Lutnick suggesting on 2 March that the rate may be lower than 25pc. The decision-making in the second Trump administration is even more centralized than during his first term, with all key decisions made by the president, who frequently chooses to overrule public remarks by his advisers and announce his intentions via his social media platform. Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso dips, recovers on tariff hopes

25/03/04

Mexican peso dips, recovers on tariff hopes

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — The Mexican peso weakened on the US decision to go ahead with the 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada Monday, but it recovered some losses today, suggesting the market is hopeful the tariffs may be short-lived. The Mexican peso lost 1.3pc to close at Ps20.71 to the US dollar Monday afternoon, according to data from Mexico's central bank. The declines came as US president Donald Trump late Monday reaffirmed that he intended to impose 25pc tariff on all products coming from Mexico, effective early 4 March. The peso on Tuesday continued its slide to the dollar, reaching Ps 21/$1 briefly in the intraday market before paring its losses and ending the day stronger at Ps 20.74/1$, according to Mexican bank Banco Base and Mexico's central bank data. Sentiment in the market is that the US administration will lift the tariffs sooner rather than later because of deep implications for the US economy. "The exchange rate and volatility have not skyrocketed, as the market speculates that the US government could withdraw the tariffs soon and that their imposition is mainly intended to give credibility to Donald Trump's threats," said Gabriela Siller, head of the financial analysis department at Banco Base, on her X account. The tariff will especially affect Mexican agricultural exports such as tomatoes, avocados or some vegetables, as well as the automobile industry, which heavily relies on Mexico to build cars that are sold in the US. In the energy sector, tariffs could partially disrupt Pemex's crude exports to the US, which would need to be diverted to other countries, especially to Asia, to avoid the 25pc tariff. Pemex primarily sells crude under evergreen or long-term contracts, allowing it to set prices and volumes buyers must accept. These agreements vary in duration, with some being indefinite and others requiring a minimum purchase period. The 25pc tariff imposed by Trump's administration could simply be added to Pemex's benchmark price and leave US buyers to decide whether to accept it. If they decline, Pemex could offer its crude at a discount to other buyers. Last week, Pemex management said it is prepared to change its commercial strategy in case the tariffs enter into effect. Pemex exported about 505,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, or 60pc of Mexico's crude exports in 2024, vessel tracking data show. The state owned company is likely to also be affected through its exports of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) to US Gulf coast refiners, which are also optimized to convert HSFO — a low-value byproduct — into higher-value fuels like gasoline and diesel. The state-owned company exported around 130,000 b/d of HSFO to the US in 2024, down from 163,000 b/d in 2023, according to Vortexa. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada must build pipelines beyond the US: Producers

25/03/04

Canada must build pipelines beyond the US: Producers

Calgary, 4 March (Argus) — US tariffs that went into effect today underline Canada's need to build energy infrastructure that limits its dependence on its southern neighbor and improve access to other markets, Canadian oil and gas producer groups said today. "A bold and necessary action that the Canadian government should take to respond is to build retaliatory pipelines to diversify our economy to other markets beyond the United States," the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) said following the US' imposition of a 10pc tariff on Canadian energy. The Canadian oil and gas industry has long criticized federal energy policy for inhibiting development and scaring off investors amid concerns for getting its production to markets. This includes what it called burdensome regulations and a ban on oil tanker traffic on much of its Pacific coast. The government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau effectively killed Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway pipeline project and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East project, which would have allowed Canadian oil producers to bypass the US. Regulations need to change to allow for such project again, industry groups say. "Canada urgently needs a policy overhaul to create a streamlined and durable regulatory framework," said Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) president Lisa Baiton. Long-term stability for Canadian producers will come from diversifying exports into Asia and Europe. "We are at a significant moment in Canada's history — we need to seize this moment," said Baiton. Canada sends about 80pc of its 5mn b/d of crude production to the US through a combination of onshore pipelines, crude by rail and waterborne cargoes. Canada accounts for 60pc of all US crude imports, with refiners in the US midcontinent having few alternative supplies. EPAC, which represents 100 producer and associate members who produce 40pc of Canada's crude and 65pc of the country's natural gas, encouraged the Canadian government to continue to work on border security concerns that the US had raised and take a measured approach in its response. Heavy sour WCS priced at Hardisty, Alberta, was assessed at a discount of $13.80/bl to the April Nymex WTI calendar month average on 3 March, wider by about 95¢/bl compared to the session prior. Indications Tuesday show WCS has continued to fall, but not to the depths seen on the eve of the previous trade threat on 3 February — before a deal was struck to delay the tariffs by 30-days — when it sank as low as a $15.75/bl discount. This suggests traders may have already priced in the trade action ahead of the latest threat. Some degree of price support could also be coming from upcoming turnaround season in Alberta's oil sands region. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs could crash auto industry: Ontario

25/03/04

US tariffs could crash auto industry: Ontario

Calgary, 4 March (Argus) — The tightly-intertwined US and Canadian auto manufacturing industry could grind to a halt in as little as 10 days due to US tariffs, according to Ontario premier Doug Ford. Raw materials and partially assembled vehicle components can cross the US-Canadian border between manufacturing plants as many as eight times before becoming a finished vehicle, Ford said today. But the 25pc tariffs the US imposed on most Canadian and Mexican goods effective today will add costs and disrupt supply chains. Canada and the US could have combined efforts to make the two countries the safest and secure, Ford said, but "... unfortunately, one man, president Trump has chosen chaos instead." Ontario, Canada's largest province by population and a major vehicle manufacturing hub, may also cut nickel exports to the US, Ford said, and may put a 25pc surcharge onto electricity flows into New York, Minnesota and Michigan if the tariffs persist. Canada supplied about 46pc of US nickel from 2019-2022 according to the US Geological Survey, and nearly 36TWh of electric power to the US. Ontario is also banning US companies from government contracts, including cancelling a $100mn contract with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services. Ford also directed the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) to remove US products from its store shelves, meaning other retailers, bars and restaurants will also be unable to restock American goods. The LCBO is the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world, according to Ford, selling nearly C$1bn in products, including 3,600 products from 35 US states. Ontario's action comes after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Canada's retaliation of 25pc tariffs on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days' time. Canadian energy exports to the US are subject to a lower 10pc tariff. Alberta premier Danielle Smith called the US tariffs "both foolish and a failure in every regard." She called on her Canadian peers to fast-track the construction of dozens of resource projects to help relieve the country's dependence on the US for sales. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more