Mexico braces for Trump tariffs, readies responses

: Crude oil, Oil products
25/01/31

Mexico awaits Saturday's deadline for US president Donald Trump's tariff implementation with a "cool head" and has prepared alternative options to react, President Claudia Sheinbaum said after Trump confirmed Thursday he plans to proceed with his threats to impose 25pc tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada.

Earlier this week, Sheinbaum said she still believed Trump would call off the plans for punitive tariffs over demands that Mexico, along with Canada, take stronger measures to halt flows of immigrants and the opioid fentanyl from the bordering countries into the US. Regardless, Mexico has prepared a "Plan A, B and C" to address any of the scenarios that could take place, Sheinbaum said.

"We will always defend respect for our sovereignty and a dialogue as equals, but without subordination," she said, emphasizing that Mexico will always keep a cool head when taking decisions and rely on its preparation.

When pressed on potential retaliatory tariffs coming from Mexico, Sheinbaum has so far been evasive.

US tariffs would harm Mexico's energy sector, as nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners, although these cargoes could be diverted to Europe or Asia.

When Trump was asked Thursday if his tariffs might exempt crude imports, he said he was not inclined to exclude them but has yet to make a decision. "We may or may not" exclude oil, Trump said. "It depends on what the price is, if the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly." On Friday the White House repeated that it plans to implement the tariffs on 1 February.

Mexico also imports the majority of its road fuels and LPG from the US, according to energy ministry data.

By Cas Biekmann

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25/03/03

US refiners pin hopes on closures to boost margins

Houston, 3 March (Argus) — US independent refiners' fourth-quarter earnings dropped sharply as refining margins slumped, but upcoming refinery closures and a heavy spring maintenance season could bolster crack spreads later this year. The largest US refiner by capacity, Marathon Petroleum, reported a drop in its margins to $13/bl in the fourth quarter, from $18/bl in the same quarter of 2023. Its profits declined to $371mn in the quarter, from $1.5bn a year earlier. But Marathon expects margins to strengthen in the second half of this year, as announced refinery closures offset recent capacity additions, according to its chief executive Maryann Mannen. As much as 800,000 b/d of global refining capacity could be shut this year, helping to tighten the market and improve margins. Two large US refineries are scheduled to close down permanently — LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d facility in Houston, Texas, is in the process of shutting and Phillips 66 plans to close its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles plant by the end of this year. Tightening supply is already helping to balance the market in the western US. Independent HF Sinclair says unplanned shutdowns and the start of maintenance in California are benefiting its refineries in neighbouring states that sell products to the region, including facilities in Anacortes, Washington, and Salt Lake City, Utah. California's supplies tightened after PBF Energy's 156,400 b/d Martinez refinery in the state was shut following a 1 February fire. And the market is bracing for a tighter market next year after the Phillips 66 plant closes. Phillips 66 reported a fourth-quarter loss in its refining businesses as margins narrowed. Crude refining margins fell to $6/bl in the fourth quarter, down from $14/bl a year earlier, it says. Narrower margins drove a $775mn fourth-quarter loss in its refining segment, compared with a profit of $859mn in the fourth quarter of 2023. The narrower margins partly reflected accelerated depreciation associated with the planned Los Angeles refinery shutdown. A burgeoning renewable fuels segment is offering some respite from the earnings downturn. Phillips 66's renewable fuels business made a $28mn profit in the fourth quarter, pushed up by higher margins at its Rodeo renewables plant in California and stronger international results. Valero's refining segment dropped sharply in the fourth quarter, as operating income fell to just under $440mn, from $1.6bn a year earlier. But its renewable diesel business, which includes a joint venture with Diamond Green Diesel, reported operating income of $170mn in the fourth quarter, up from $84mn in the same period a year earlier. Unclear outlook Despite the rapid growth in US renewables, the overall outlook is unclear. The prices of credits tied to US state and federal clean fuel programmes remain relatively low, cutting into margins for biofuels producers. A tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders was replaced this year by a new subsidy that can exclusively be claimed by US producers. Companies that produce biofuels say they need more clarity from the US government on how the new tax credit works before they follow through on plans to increase production. Refiners in the US are worried about continuing to rely on government subsidies for renewables projects. US independent refiner CVR Energy intends to pause spending on its renewables business until there is more regulatory clarity in the country. "We've had all we can stand of exposure to government subsidies and it's going to take a shift change for us to really invest in it," CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp says. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German diesel demand rises with farming activity

25/03/03

German diesel demand rises with farming activity

Hamburg, 3 March (Argus) — Consumer diesel demand increased in the week ending 28 February, with higher consumption from the agricultural sector and stable filling station demand. Rising temperatures dampened heating oil sales. Sellers in agricultural regions reported rising diesel demand. Farmers have been able to spread manure since early February and are now tilling their fields again. Traded diesel spot volumes reported to Argus rose by almost 25pc week on week. Volumes increased by 74pc in Emsland, an especially farming-heavy area in northwest Germany. Stable demand at filling stations has also been supporting overall demand, traders said. Current school holidays in two German states, and holidays starting in Bavaria today, are further supporting demand from filling station operators. Spot gasoline sales remained little changed from the previous week, with an increase of 3pc. The situation is different for heating oil, with many traders reporting that rising temperatures across Germany are noticeably dampening demand for the product. The nationwide average price reductions for heating oil compared with the week ending 21 February have not stimulated buying interest. Traded heating oil spot volumes fell by 16pc. Maintenance work that began on 2 March at the 125,000 b/d Vohburg plant of the Bayernoil refinery, and the closure of the 147,000 b/d Wesseling plant at Shell's Rheinland refinery from mid-March, could reduce supply in the coming weeks. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Looming tariff war adds to US refiner headwinds

25/03/03

Looming tariff war adds to US refiner headwinds

Houston, 3 March (Argus) — US independent refiners, already facing weaker margins, falling demand and regulatory uncertainty in their burgeoning renewables businesses, are braced for another imminent headwind from US tariffs. The US may impose a 10pc tariff on energy from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico starting on 4 March. Refiners are scrambling to find alternative supplies, including switching to lighter crude slates, but this will come at a cost. Although short-term margins are due to improve with refinery closures and maintenance, a sustained tariff war could add another long-term problem. The potential tariffs come as US independent refiners including Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66 are coming out of a rough fourth-quarter earnings season, with lower margins cutting into profits year on year. The tariffs have already caused problems in North American oil markets as trading desks struggle to understand how they would work in practice and some buyers hold off from committing to taking March cargoes until details are clarified. But one thing is becoming clear — tariffs will lead to higher feedstock costs and will cause some refiners to reduce runs, cutting further into profits. US independent refiner PBF Energy chief executive Matthew Lucey says tariffs on Canadian crude would cause US midcontinent refineries to cut throughputs, even if they find alternative crudes. Marathon Petroleum, the largest US refiner by volume, says it could pivot some of its midcontinent refineries to run domestic crude slates such as Bakken from North Dakota and Montana, crude from the Rockies, or crude from the Utica and Marcellus shale regions in the northeast US. Tariffs would lead to price increases, but most of it "will ultimately be borne by the producer" and to a lesser extent the consumer, Marathon chief executive Maryann Mannen predicts. Smaller refiner HF Sinclair also says it could switch to alternative, lighter crudes at its refineries if tariffs are implemented. Several refiners agree with Marathon that producers would bear the brunt of the tariff costs, but the impact on oil prices will have repercussions throughout the industry. US bank TD Cowen expects US refiners that run Canadian crude on the margin to switch to light sweet crude, increasing WTI and Brent prices. Meanwhile, inland refiners that run Canadian crude as a core part of their slate are likely to continue to do so, the bank says. Phillips 66's executive vice-president of commercial Brian Mandell agrees with that assessment, saying that Western Canadian crude will continue to flow to US refiners, but at a greater discount. Sour taste Meanwhile, US Gulf coast refiners will be likely to replace Mexican and Canadian heavy crude with crude from other heavy sour producers such as Iraq, TD Cowen says. The switching will be likely to tighten medium and heavy sour differentials already tight from Opec+ curtailments and US sanctions against Russia. If it becomes too expensive to switch to heavy sour crudes, refiners could run less-efficient crude slates, reducing product supplied. Despite the headwinds, US refiners have expressed optimism that margins will improve in 2025 as a result of a heavy spring maintenance season and expected capacity closures. Two large US refineries are shutting down this year — LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is in the process of closing, and Phillips 66's 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery is planned to be shut by the end of the year. Marathon says it expects the US refining industry to remain structurally advantaged over the rest of the world in the long term "mainly due to the availability of low-cost energy". But US tariffs — and the increase in prices that is likely to follow — could challenge that notion. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil’s new Atlanta FPSO exports first crude cargo

25/03/03

Brazil’s new Atlanta FPSO exports first crude cargo

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Ecuador awards Sacha field to Sinopec, Petrolia

25/03/02

Ecuador awards Sacha field to Sinopec, Petrolia

Quito, 2 March (Argus) — Ecuador will transfer operation of its highest-producing oil field, the 74,600 b/d Sacha, to a consortium of China's Sinopec and Canada-based Petrolia under a production-sharing contract aimed at increasing output, the energy ministry said today. The consortium, in which Sinopec as operators hold a 60pc share and Petrolia the remainder, committed to investing $1.7bn in the next six year to reach peak production of 100,000 b/d by 2028, up by 33pc compared with current output. State-owned Petroecuador currently operates the field in block 60 in the Orellana province in the Amazonian region. Energy minister Ines Manzano authorized the deal through a resolution, and vice minister of hydrocarbons Guilhermo Ferreira was charged with signing the 20-year contract. Most terms have already been negotiated and final signature should not take more than a few weeks, the ministry said. The consortium had proposed keeping from 80pc-87.5pc of production, depending on the price of WTI crude, Petrolia's general manager Ramiro Paez previously told Argus . If the WTI price is below $30/bl, the consortium will take 87.5pc of the production. But its production sharing will decrease on a sliding scale to a minimum of 80pc when the WTI price is $120/bl or above. Ecuador's government will keep 80pc of profits, when taxes and other fees are taken into account, the consortium has said. Transitioning operations from Petroecuador to Sinopec will take about six months, said Paez. Opposing forces Ecuador's oil workers' unions have rejected the plan as unconstitutional because it passes control of the field from the state-owned company, as have opposition legislators with the citizens' revolution party that holds a majority in congress. The deal will cost Ecuador's government $8bn, the party claims. They also complained that the government announced the decision at the start of a holiday weekend. Manzano defended the deal as constitutional as the hydrocarbons law allows the government to delegate crude field operations. The energy ministry will provide additional details about the deal on 5 March after the 3-4 March holiday for Carnival. From 1-27 February 2025, Sacha produced an average of 74,680 b/d, down by 4pc compared with 77,884 b/d in February 2024, according to the data published by the hydrocarbons regulatory agency (Arch) and Petroecuador. Ecuador produced 474,860 b/d in January. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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