Atlanta Fed model sees 2.8pc US 1Q GDP drop

: Metals, Natural gas
25/03/04

A closely watched GDP forecasting model published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates US gross domestic product (GDP) is on track to contract by an annualized 2.8pc in the first quarter of 2025.

The latest estimate published Monday was down from a 1.5pc first quarter decline published on 28 February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its "advance" estimate, the first of three, on first quarter GDP growth on 30 April.

The forecast for contraction comes as President Donald Trump has implemented or increased tariffs on major allies Canada, Mexico and the EU, as well as adversaries like China, begun mass layoffs in the federal government and frozen federal funding to many agencies. The moves are causing consumers and businesses to turn cautious as they evaluate the potential outcomes and threaten to upend supply chains and spur inflation.

US GDP expanded at an annual 2.3pc in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1pc in the third quarter. GDP last contracted in the first quarter of 2022, falling by 1pc, after contracting by 28pc in the second quarter of 2020 during the brief Covid-19-induced recession. A third, final estimate for fourth quarter GDP is due out on 27 March.

The latest GDPNow estimate was updated Monday after releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the US Census Bureau prompted the model to downgrade estimates for personal consumption and fixed investment for the quarter.

The GDPNow model "mimics" the models used by the BEA to estimate GDP growth, and aggregates statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. The latest GDPNow forecast is usually released hours after a report on a subcomponent is released, which usually comes every three to five days.

Upcoming reports that will be taken into consideration by GDPNow include international trade, retail sales, housing starts, industrial production and construction spending. The last GDPNow forecast will come the day of the last input report before the advance GDP data is released in April.

The GDPNow forecast for the first quarter fell to a contraction of 1.5pc on 28 February, on weak consumer spending and exports data, from a prior forecast for growth of 2.3pc two days earlier.

The Atlanta Fed says since it started tracking GDP growth with versions of the GDPNow model in 2011, the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts has been 0.77 percentage points.

By Bob Willis

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25/05/08

Permian output could plateau sooner: Occidental CEO

New York, 8 May (Argus) — Oil production from the Permian basin could plateau sooner than expected if operators keep talking about reducing activity levels in the wake of lower oil prices, warned the chief executive of Occidental Petroleum. Vicki Hollub said she previously expected to see Permian output growing through 2027, with overall US production growth peaking by the end of the decade. "It's looking like with the current headwinds, or at least volatility and uncertainty around pricing and the economy, and recessions and all of that, it's looking like that peak could come sooner," Hollub told analysts today after posting first quarter results. "So I'm thinking right now the Permian, if it grows at all through the rest of the year, it's going to be very little." Occidental is reducing the midpoint of its annual capital spending guidance for 2025 by $200mn on the back of further efficiency gains. The US independent also plans to trim domestic operating costs by $150mn. "We continue to rapidly advance towards our debt reduction goals, and we believe our deep, diverse portfolio of high-quality assets positions us for success in any market environment," Hollub said. Occidental closed asset sales of $1.3bn in the first quarter and has repaid $2.3bn in debt so far in 2025. Occidental produced 1.4mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the first quarter compared with nearly 1.2mn boe/d in the same period of last year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US seeks flexibility from Europe to help LNG deals

25/05/08

US seeks flexibility from Europe to help LNG deals

Washington, 8 May (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is pressing European countries to offer flexibility on standards for methane emissions as a way to ease the pathway for them to sign long-term purchase agreements for US LNG. Trump has pushed for countries to commit to buying more US LNG as a way to avoid steep tariffs he has threatened to impose on countries that have trade imbalances with the US. But a looming requirement for European importers to show "equivalence" to EU methane monitoring requirements for newly signed gas supply contracts could pose an obstacle for US LNG, based on differences in how methane emissions are tracked. The administration's "ask" is for the EU to ensure that its methane-related measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) methodologies do not pose a barrier to US LNG, US acting assistant secretary of state for energy resources Laura Lochman said today. US LNG terminals have struggled to show equivalency to the MRV rules because, unlike many global LNG projects, they source their gas from pipelines connected to multiple fields. "Give time for industry to work through some of those traceability issues as well, because it would take a few years to be able to get to that point and work out the equivalency methodology," Lochman said at an event with European officials organized by the industry group LNG Allies. European officials indicated they are receptive to finding a solution, as they work to end purchases of Russian gas by the end of 2027. But they say they want to continue to see reductions in emissions of methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Trump has already started rolling back restrictions on methane emissions. "We understand you've got a different supply chain, as opposed to us, and that it's important to have it worked out so that any difficulties are taken away from American companies with those regulations," Netherlands ambassador to the US Birgitta Tazelaar said at the event. "Of course it's very important for the Netherlands and Europe that methane be reduced." US LNG developers are likewise pushing Europe to consider pushing back a goal to largely phase out natural gas consumption by 2040. That deadline could complicate the traditional financing model for new LNG terminals typically premised on signing 20-year supply deals, said Kimmeridge managing partner Ben Dell, whose company is building the proposed 9.5mn metric tonne/yr Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana. "The one thing I would ask is for European members in this room to think beyond 2040," Dell said. "Ultimately extending that runway allows a lower-cost project financing and ultimately a lower cost delivery into the European market." A potential trade deal between the US and the EU could create an opportunity to grant equivalency to US LNG exports to avoid barriers from the EU methane regulation, LNG Allies president Fred Hutchison said today. The US in turn could reclassify the EU as having a free trade agreement for gas, which would expedite US LNG export licensing, Hutchison said. The Trump administration sees the potential for European contracts to lead proposed US LNG export terminals to reach final investment decisions (FIDs). The administration has already been "very clear" about its goal to increase LNG exports and cut regulations facing the natural gas sector, the State Department's Lochman said. "When you put together the push from the US side to support, and then the demand signals on the European side, you can get more projects making it to FID," Lochman said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HSFO defies the green tide

25/05/08

HSFO defies the green tide

New York, 8 May (Argus) — High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization. The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use. Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO. In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months. Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend. While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight. By Stefka Wechsler Selected ports marine fuel demand t % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 Singapore HSFO 1.0% 33,160.0 4,898,372.0 4,865,212.0 VLSFO/ULSFO -13.0% -1,005,951.0 6,829,667.0 7,835,618.0 MGO/MDO -5.0% -49,012.0 907,874.0 956,886.0 biofuel blends 187.0% 237,552.0 364,418.0 126,866.0 LNG 34.0% 25,935.0 101,856.0 75,921.0 Rotterdam HSFO 1.0% 11,169.0 829,197.0 818,028.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 14.0% 118,670.0 976,249.0 857,579.0 MGO/MDO 3.0% 9,662.0 393,071.0 383,409.0 biofuel blends -60.0% -158,597.0 104,037.0 262,634.0 LNG 7.0% 7.0 104.0 97.0 Panama HSFO 22.0% 65,266.0 362,388.0 297,122.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 25.0% 177,296.0 878,776.0 701,480.0 MGO/MDO 22.0% 27,097.0 150,980.0 123,883.0 — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

FinBalt gas demand down on the year in April

25/05/08

FinBalt gas demand down on the year in April

London, 8 May (Argus) — Combined gas demand across the Finnish and Baltic region fell by 4pc on the year in April despite gas-fired power generation rising by nearly 50pc. Aggregate consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in April fell to 3.42TWh, down from 3.56TWh the previous year and the three-year average of 5.12TWh in 2019-21. That said, it was still higher than in both 2022 and 2023 ( see consumption graph ). Lithuania remained the region's largest consumer, as it has been for every month since June, again driven by an increase in gas-fired power generation. Average gas-fired output soared by nearly 400pc on the year in April to 254MW according to data from Fraunhofer ISE, more than making up for a 43pc drop in Finnish production ( see power table ). Following the de-synchronisation of the Baltic states from the post-Soviet Brell system, gas-fired power plants have become particularly important in the region, not just for producing electricity but also for providing ancillary services such as frequency reserves. Lithuania has the largest gas-fired fleet in the region, and its output jumped despite domestic power consumption falling by more than 5pc on the year and renewable output increasing, which allowed the country to cut its power imports last month to 104MW, from 546MW in the previous year. With power sector gas demand increasing in April but overall gas consumption in the region dropping, demand from households and industries must have been lower on the year. Weather patterns were split across the region, with lower average minimum temperatures than the previous year in Vilnius and Riga, but higher in Tallinn and Helsinki. That said, overnight lows in all four capitals were still above the 2015-24 average last month, limiting strong heating demand in the shoulder month ( see temperature table ). Traded volumes on the region's gas exchange GET Baltic rose to 1.1TWh last month, an "unusually high result for this time of year" according to the exchange's senior account manager Karolis Bagdonas. Of the overall volume, 56pc traded in Lithuania, 28pc in the joint Estonia-Latvia market area, and the remaining 16pc in Finland. The average price on GET Baltic was €39.40/MWh last month, down by around 8pc from March. GET Baltic announced in April that its full integration into the European Energy Exchange (EEX) had been delayed again until 9 September , having previously been planned for 27 May . Across all of January-April FinBalt consumption totalled 18.43TWh, down from 20.04TWh in the same period of 2024. Stocks at the region's only storage facility in Latvia ended the storage year on 1 May at 8.4TWh, below 11.3TWh on the same day last year and 9TWh in 2023, but still above all other years since 2018 ( see data and download ). The entire 100pc of capacity, amounting to just over 23TWh, had been booked for the 2024-25 storage year, but for the new 2025-26 cycle a lower 17TWh has been allocated, representing around 68pc of the cycle's total technical capacity of 24.9TWh. Consistently positive summer-winter spreads over the winter period, which gave no financial incentive to book storage, may have driven lower interest in 2025-26 capacity, although they had normalised by April. Lower overall booked volumes is despite operator Conexus managing to sell all 9TWh of the new five-year capacity product it offered in February and March . Slow start to injection season Injections into Incukalns have been weak so far this year, with not a single day of net injections until 24 April. In the previous year, there had been some brief net injections on 1-4 April at an average of 54 GWh/d, and across all of April they averaged just over 7 GWh/d. In contrast, this year's April averaged net withdrawals of 32 GWh/d across the month, with injections only on 24-30 April. This slow stockbuild has continued in the first week of May, with 35GWh of net injections on 1 May but then a flip back to very minor net withdrawals of 0.2 GWh/d on every day of 2-6 May, the latest data from GIE show. Last year, there were average net injections of 47 GWh/d on 1-6 May, and 39 GWh/d in 2021-23. Despite weak injections, overall LNG sendout across the region's three terminals of Klaipeda, Inkoo and Hamina has increased significantly from April, nearly doubling to 150 GWh/d on 1-7 May from 80 GWh/d in April. Sendout from these terminals averaged 84 GWh/d on 1-7 May last year. Rather than injecting all of the regasified LNG, some of it is being sent southward to Poland at Santaka, with exit flows at the point averaging 22 GWh/d on 1-7 May, switched from net inflows of 2 GWh/d in April. This is likely to be linked to Polish incumbent Orlen's deals to supply LNG to Ukraine's Naftogaz, of which one of the contracts specified that it would be delivered to Klaipeda and transited to the Ukrainian border . By Brendan A'Hearn FinBalt gas-fired power production MW Apr-25 Apr-24 year-on-year % change Finland 118 206 -43 Estonia 6 5 20 Latvia 85 53 60 Lithuania 254 52 388 Total 463 316 47 — Fraunhofer ISE FinBalt average minimum temps °C Apr-25 Apr-24 2015-24 avg Helsinki 0.7 0.1 0.1 Talinn 2.2 2.0 1.0 Riga 4.8 5.0 4.0 Vilnius 3.8 5.2 2.8 — Speedwell FinBalt gas demand by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

25/05/08

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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