Newly minted Canadian prime minister Mark Carney will likely call a national election soon to both secure his seat in Canada's parliament and win a public mandate in the ongoing trade war with the US.
Carney has helped revive the Liberal party's fortunes and narrow the gap between main rival Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in recent weeks, raising the odds he will call for a national election soon. Poilievre has lost momentum because of rising anti-US sentiment in Canada while the governing Liberals have capitalized on newfound attention in what many in the country see as a fight against US president Donald Trump.
An election would occur 37-51 days after being called, meaning Canadians could go to the polls as early as late-April. Because Carney did not hold elected office when his party chose him to succeed Justin Trudeau, he must also find a parliamentary seat to run for in the election. At the same time voters will be voting on all other seats in parliament, essentially putting the Liberal party's nine-year run leading the country in the balance.
Parliament has been out of session for several months after Trudeau asked for an extension of a regular recess while his party chose a new leader. It is scheduled to return on 24 March although Carney could ask to extend it again. If it does return to session, Carney will be without a seat and unable to defend himself against Conservative attacks in the House of Commons.
Until then, Carney will continue to lead Canada's response to the US-induced trade war, which has included tariffs on energy and a wide range of other imports imposed then removed earlier this month, as well as ongoing tariffs against steel and aluminum imports.
A tight contest
A virtual tie in the polls for Canada's two largest federal parties promises a tight race for the expected spring election where Carney will try to shake unpopular policies from Trudeau's time — some of which Carney had formerly endorsed — while addressing louder calls by Canadians for exporting energy to non-US countries.
Both parties appear to like their chances, but the US-Canada trade war has meant Liberal ministers leading important areas of policy are dominating national media, leaving Poilievre searching for airtime.
Poilievre warns voters that Carney is an out-of-touch elitist similar to his close ally Trudeau. Carney, who has held prominent roles in banking and on corporate boards, counters he has "actually worked in the private sector" while characterizing Poilievre as a lifelong politician.
But Carney still knows he must distance himself from Trudeau. He began that process last week by using his power to eliminate the consumer carbon tax, beating Poilievre — who has been calling for this for years — to the punch.
Diversifying trade, inter-provincially and internationally, is top of mind for both leaders, but the Liberals still seem reluctant to talk about oil pipelines, aside from the recently expanded and federally-owned 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain system. The system has provided flexibility for crude exporters looking to bypass the US and is now seen in a new light by many outside of the industry amid the trade war.
Canada will be a superpower in "both conventional and clean energies" by creating new trade corridors with "reliable trade partners", Carney said on 14 March.
But the country's largest oil producing provinces have their reservations.
"Mark Carney is responsible for net zero banking," Alberta premier Danielle Smith said last week at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas. "He's been on a war path against the energy industry his entire career."
Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe meanwhile urged Carney to cancel this week's visit to Europe, his first international trip as prime minister, and instead prioritize escalating trade wars with both the US and China.
"There are higher stakes at play here," Moe said. "We don't have a trade war with the European Union today."
