Drought conditions, above average temperatures and high winds are reducing the outlook for US winter wheat through the southern and central plains regions.
Crop conditions for key US winter wheat producing states were mixed at the end of February 2025.
In Oklahoma and Texas, two states that account for approximately 20pc of total US winter wheat acres, the percentages of the crop rated in good-to excellent condition were down 12 and 35 percentage points, respectively, from a year before, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. Colorado and Montana, which account for about 14pc of US winter wheat acres, saw the crops good-to-excellent ratio increase 11 and 22 percentage points from the prior year, respectively.
Kansas, the largest winter wheat state by acreage, saw the crops good-to-excellent ratio reach 54pc, down slightly from the prior year's level, because of developing drought conditions.
Since the USDA's last crop condition update, drought conditions in Kansas have continued to intensify with precipitation totals for central and western parts of the state at 5pc or less of the historical average during the 30-day period ending 16 March, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data.
In addition to increasing drought, above average temperatures have resulted in the states hard red winter wheat crop breaking dormancy by as much as a month ahead of normal, according to market sources, increasing the risk that future weather events could cause significant damage.
NOAA forecasts Kansas will receive limited snow accumulation and winds in excess of 70 miles per hour over the week ahead, the combination of which could result in significant damage to the crop as it breaks dormancy.
The USDA will provide the next US state winter wheat crop conditions update at the start of April. The report's data could prove supportive for US wheat prices if it indicates substantial damage has occurred to US winter wheat acres.
