US fertilizer producer Mosaic is hopeful its output this year will exceed 2024 levels as it plans to enhance its capacity to meet anticipated demand growth.
Mosaic expects phosphate and potash global demand to individually exceed 80mn metric tonnes (t) by the end of the decade, with phosphate's demand increase to be limited by a lack of adequate global supply. For phosphate, that would represent an uptick of 7mn t of demand while for potash that would represent an increase of nearly 9mn t. Mosaic referenced biofuel demand, feed use, and food use as the main pillars of agriculture commodity demand growth.
There are a handful of factors expected to drive demand growth for phosphate and potash, such as population growth and an increase in the usage of the phosphate molecule in the industrial sector, the producer said in its analyst day presentation.
Executive vice president Jenny Wang pointed out the downward trend in Chinese phosphate exports. The country in recent years exported roughly 10mn t, but that level has dropped to around 7mn-8mn t as it focuses on meeting domestic demand first. Mosaic expects annual Chinese phosphate exports to continue to drop by at least another 2mn t, while global phosphate demand growth from 2025-2030 is expected to increase by at least 2pc, which would further tighten global supply.
The producer also did not shy away from detailing its loss of 700,000t of phosphate production last year from the plethora of hurricanes and winter storms that swept through the US Gulf.
Vice president Karen Swager said if the 700,000t of phosphate had been included in the annual output tonnage, the overall 2024 production rate would have surpassed 2023, and therefore 2025's phosphate output should show an uptick.
Mosaic last year produced roughly 6.3mn t of phosphate. It expects to produce between 7.2mn-7.6mn t this year and nearly 8.2mn t by 2026.
"As we ramp our production up, we will lower our unit costs because a lot of our costs are fixed," Swager said.
The producer has also been installing new technology at its Canadian mines that should lead to an 8pc increase in its 2025 potash output compared with 2024 levels, which were lowered by 250,000t because of electrical mine issues. Mosaic anticipates 2025 production to total between 8.9mn-9.1mn t and should near 9.2mn t by 2027.
"Better operating efficiency will unlock value that enables us to grow high margin areas of the business, and invest less in the areas that aren't generating those type of returns," president Bruce Bodine said.
