US manufacturing contracts in March: ISM

: Metals
25/04/01

Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector fell back into contraction in March after a brief expansion as businesses braced for US president Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on imports.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49 in March, down from the 50.3 in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. That followed three months of expansion — above the breakeven threshold of 50 — following 26 months of contraction.

The new orders index contracted for a second month in a row, falling to 45.2, down by 3.4 points from the prior month. Production fell to 48.3 from 50.7. New export orders fell to 49.6 in March from 51.4 the prior month.

"Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to demand confusion," ISM said. "Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth."

The prices index surged to 69.4, up from 62.4 in February and the highest since mid-2022. Employment fell by 2.9 points to 47.6.

The supplier delivery index fell by 1 point to 53.5, indicating ongoing slowing in deliveries and slowing demand.

Trump plans to unveil sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April after previewing or announcing multiple tariff actions since taking office, including a 20pc tariff on all imports from China and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum that both took effect last month. Trump last month also announced a 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, scheduled to go into effect on 3 April. The measures, together with mass federal government layoffs and spending cuts, spooked US equity markets, which last month posted heavy losses.

Comments focus on tariff confusion

Comments from survey participants highlighted uncertainty over how Trump's tariff plans would effect operations and the economy.

"Acute shortages continue to impact supply chain continuity," a transportation equipment executive said. "Chinese restrictions on critical minerals such as germanium have caused major shortages, resulting in all supply needed in 2025 already assumed — and, not surprisingly, significant price increases as a result."

"Customers are pulling in orders due to anxiety about continued tariffs and pricing pressures," according to a computer and electronic products executive.

"Business condition is deteriorating at a fast pace," a machinery executive commented. "Tariffs and economic uncertainty are making the current business environment challenging."

"New order levels have increased and are better than expected," a fabricated metals executive said. "We suspect that our customers are trying to build inventory at current prices to get ahead of expected tariff and related cost increases."

By Bob Willis

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25/04/04

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

London, 4 April (Argus) — Egyptian rebar has cleared at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda under a product code that sits under a different EU quota category, a mill test certificate sent to rebar buyers and obtained by Argus shows. The documentation shows a parcel of steel products with the properties and specifications of rebar registered under HS code 722830, which is for hot-rolled bar, not rebar. The material is supplied by an Egyptian steel mill, and the mill test certificate obtained by Argus contains the assertion "HS code for rebar is: 72 28 30 69 00", followed by the signature of a senior quality engineer. The mill's website indicates it produces rebar, rebar in spools and rebar in coil, which fall respectively under the rebar and wire rod EU import quotas. Hot-rolled bar under the HS code 72283069 falls under category 12 for "non-alloy and other alloy merchant bars and light sections", for which there is currently no import restriction on Egyptian material. A trading company is thought to have discharged at least 17,000t of rebar and rebar in coils at Klaipeda on 28 March, after loading at the Egyptian port of Alexandria on 24 February. But it is not clear how much material in total has passed through customs or under which HS codes. As of 1 April, the EU's Egyptian rebar quota is capped at about 27,500t, after previously having had no limitation within the "other countries" allocation of about 138,000t. Some market participants estimated that there were about 80,000t of Egyptian rebar waiting to clear at EU ports on 1 April, but only about 30,000t cleared under the rebar quota on the first day, according to market participants, meaning duties paid by companies clearing material on that day will not be as high as feared. Trade data also show that Bulgaria imported 17,000t of hot-rolled bar from Egypt under HS 72283069 in January 2025, nearly three times as much as the whole EU imported in the full year of 2024 or 2023, a sign that companies are increasingly keen to seek ways around EU safeguards as they tighten. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

25/04/04

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

25/04/04

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

London, 4 April (Argus) — Silicon and ferro-silicon prices in the US are likely to surge because of steep tariffs on imports announced this week, while prices in Europe might fall as countries hit by high tariffs redirect material to the EU. The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April exempted a number of minor metals and ferro-alloys, listed in Annex II of the executive order, but ferro-silicon and silicon metal of less than 99.99pc purity were not among the exemptions. The US steel industry is a major consumer of imported silicon products. The tariffs are the second major US trade announcement on ferro-silicon in two weeks after the International Trade Administration (ITA) determined anti-dumping duty rates against ferro-silicon imports from Brazil, Malaysia and Kazakhstan on 25 March. A final decision on anti-dumping duties is due on 12 May, and it remains to be seen how the new tariffs will impact the ITA's decision. 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US adds 228,000 jobs in March: BLS

25/04/04

US adds 228,000 jobs in March: BLS

Houston, 4 April (Argus) — The US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. Economists surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast job gains of 135,000 for March. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2pc in March from 4.1pc the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains in February were revised lower by 34,000 to 117,000 jobs. The unexpectedly strong job report comes amid mounting recession fears on the back of President Donald Trump's volley of trade tariffs unveiled this week and mass federal layoffs begun over the past month, which have yet to appear in the Labor surveys. US and global stocks have tumbled on the tariff news. As of 11am ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 43pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 100pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Job gains averaged 159,000 over the 12 months prior to March. Federal government employment declined by 4,000 jobs in March following losses of 11,000 jobs in February. Employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed, the BLS said, so most of last month's announced federal job cuts do not show up in the data. Some federal job cuts have been reversed by court orders. Retail trade added 24,000 jobs, while transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs. Construction added 13,000 jobs and manufacturing added 1,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality jobs grew by 43,000 and health care and social assistance added 78,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by an annual 3.8pc, slowing from 4pc the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

25/04/03

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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