Colombia's renewables grow, but gap looms

: Electricity
25/04/07

Development of non-conventional renewable (NCRE) generation has picked up in Colombia, but the pace is still not fast enough to cover a projected generation shortage by 2027-2028.

Colombia will likely reach 2.55GW in installed NCRE such as solar and wind — excluding large hydropower — by the end of 2025, up from 1.88GW at the end of 2024, Colombian renewable association SER director Alexandra Hernandez told Argus at the Colombia Genera conference held last week in Cartagena.

About 670MW from 19 medium and large NCRE plants worth $500mn will likely come online in 2025, Hernandez noted. Of that total, 30MW in two projects came online in January and the balance of 640MW is under construction, according to Hernandez. The plants will reduce emissions by 1.1mn metric tonnes (t) CO2/yr compared with conventional generation. For 2026, 419MW in NCRE could come online.

NCRE will comprise a 12pc share of Colombia's generation capacity in 2025, up from 10pc in 2024. But Colombia will fail to meet its target of 6GW in NCRE by August 2026, when the administration of president Gustavo Petro ends, former minister of mines and energy Amylkar Acosta said. Colombia will likely will end 2026 with 3GW, Hernandez noted. This comes despite Petro's support for renewable energy and ambitions to phase out hydrocarbons use.

Much of the NCRE development is focused on the dry, windswept department of La Guajira that borders Venezuela and juts into the Caribbean.

US firm AES' will start building the first 259MW phase of its 1.1GW Jemeiwaa Ka'I wind complex there later this year, AES's general manager Federico Echavarria said at the Colombia Genera conference.

"Our biggest bet is La Guajira," Echavarria said. Last year, Colombia's environmental regulator Anla approved a transmission line connecting 648MW of planned wind capacity in the La Guajira area to the national grid.

The 500kV Casa Electrica-Colectora transmission line and substation will connect with Grupo de Energia de Bogota's 500kV Colectora transmission line. Colectora has begun construction and should come online in 2026, a delay from its original 2022 start date.

La Guajira has Colombia's greatest renewable power potential, including 21GW of wind power potential, according to state planning agency UPME. But delays to key transmission projects and lengthy community consultations impeded development. Italian power company Enel suspended indefinitely construction of a 205MW wind farm in the Windpeschi region, but state-controlled oil company Ecopetrol is seeking authorization to buy it.

Projects advancing in other departments include the 200MW Orquidea solar project in the Caribbean province of Bolivar, which recently earned an environmental permit that clears the way for construction.

Running out of time

But this new generation capacity will not cover an expected supply shortfall. Colombia is forecast to have a gap of around 2,000MW by 2027-2028 assuming baseline consumption, and 3,000MW-6,000MW if demand rises further, several electricity associations have said.

Renewables could help fill this gap, as the construction is fairly quick once permits are secured, the renewables group SER said. But 47pc of renewable power companies were unable to complete their planned investments in 2024, with permitting delays among the top reason, the group found in a member survey.

Permits from the government's mining and planning unit UPME takes nine months, compared with the two months stipulated by the law. Regional entities take twice as long to issue a permit than the legal limit.

The government will push to do more, energy and mines minister Edwin Palma said in Cartagena.

"We are convinced and committed to ensuring that expansion projects are carried out," he said. "We will work with the ministry of the interior to expedite licenses."

By Diana Delgado

Colombia's power generation mix %

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