Flooding on US rivers mires barge transit

: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Oil products, Petroleum coke
25/04/07

Barge transit slowed across the Arkansas, Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers over the weekend because of flooding, which prompted the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to close locks and issue transit restrictions along the waterways.

The Corps advised all small craft to limit or halt transit on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MCKARNS) in Arkansas because flows reached above 200,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), nearly three times the high-water flow. The heavy flow is expected to persist throughout the week, posing risks to those transiting the river system, said the Corps. Some barges have halted movement on the river, temporarily miring fertilizer resupply efforts in Arkansas and Oklahoma in the middle of the urea application season.

The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday, and the National Weather Service predicts several locations along the MCKARNS will maintain a moderate to minor flood stage into Friday as well.

Both the Arthur V Ormond Lock and the Toad Suck Ferry Lock, upriver from Little Rock, Arkansas, shut on 6 April because of the high flows. Flows along the Little Rock Corps district reached 271,600cfs on 7 April. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday.

Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers

The Corps restricted barge transit between Cincinnati, Ohio, and Cairo, Illinois, on the Ohio River to mitigate barge transportation risks, with the Corps closing two locks on the Ohio River on 6 April and potentially four more in the coming days.

Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) anticipates dock and fleeting operations will be suspended at certain locations along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers as a result of the flooding. NWS forecasters anticipate major flooding levels to persist through the following week. Barge carriers also expect a backlog of up to two weeks in the region.

To alleviate flooding at Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers meet, the Corps increased water releases at the Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River and the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River.

The Markland Lock, downriver from Cincinnati, Ohio, and the Newburgh lock near Owensboro, Kentucky, closed on 6 April. The Corps expects the full closure to remain until each location reaches its crest of nearly 57ft, which could occur on 8 or 9 April, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Around 50 vessels or more are waiting to transit each lock, according to the Lock Status Report published by the Corps on 7 April.

The Corps also shut a chamber at both Cannelton and McAlpine locks. The John T Myers and Smithland locks may close on 7 April as well, the Corps said. The Olmsted Lock, the final lock before the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, will require a 3mph limit for any traffic passing through.

The NWS expects roughly 10-15 inches of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys earlier this month, inducing severe flooding across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. A preliminary estimate from AccuWeather stated an estimated loss of $80-90bn in damages from the extreme flooding.

By Meghan Yoyotte

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25/04/11

US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs

Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico suspends Valero fuel import permits

25/04/11

Mexico suspends Valero fuel import permits

Mexico City, 11 April (Argus) — Mexico's tax authority SAT on 9 April suspended US refiner Valero's fuel import permits, the company said today. The company did not specify why its import license was suspended. "Valero is addressing each administrative observation noted in the suspension to clarify the issues. Additionally, [authorities] mistakenly stated that the company does not have valid import permits, which is incorrect since the permits are valid through 2038," the company said. When consulted, Valero told Argus it has no further information to share at this time. In Mexico, Valero holds gasoline, diesel and jet fuel import permits valid through 2038. The company is one of only a handful of private-sector companies with such permits. Shell, Marathon and ExxonMobil hold permits to import only gasoline and diesel. Valero is the leading private fuel importer in Mexico. On 9 April, its sales accounted for 10pc of Mexico's gasoline and diesel demand, according to the company. Private-sector companies started importing fuel into Mexico in 2016 after the market opened to more competition, but under former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's administration, the energy ministry (Sener) cancelled dozens of fuel import permits. Valero is cooperating with the Mexican government and has recently joined a voluntary price cap agreement to keep regular gasoline below Ps24/l ($4.45/USG), the company said, adding that it "implements rigorous traceability and security controls throughout its supply chain." The company stores fuel at four private-sector terminals in Mexico, with over 4mn bl of capacity. The company is also expected to start storing fuel at the new 1.1mn bl OTM terminal in Altamira, Tamaulipas, in the near future. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Renovabio: Usinas alertam distribuidoras inadimplentes

25/04/11

Renovabio: Usinas alertam distribuidoras inadimplentes

Sao Paulo, 11 April (Argus) — Grandes grupos do setor sucroalcooleiro começaram a alertar clientes de que poderão deixar de fornecer etanol a distribuidoras em desconformidade com a Política Nacional de Biocombustíveis (Renovabio) e normas da Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP). As informações foram confirmadas à Argus participantes do mercado, entre traders , corretores e funcionários da área de inteligência de mercado de companhias do setor de distribuição, que dizem que as comunicações começaram no fim de março. Segundo as fontes, que falaram sob a condição de anonimato, Atvos, Evolua e Raízen teriam começado a comunicar distribuidoras inadimplentes em suas metas de aposentadoria de créditos de descarbonização (Cbios) de que elas correm o risco de não poder mais adquirir etanol via contratos de fornecimento de longo prazo, regidos pela resolução nº 946/2023 (que modificou a antiga 67/2011) da ANP. Todas as companhias citadas foram procuradas pela Argus, mas decidiram não comentar sobre o assunto ou não responderam até o fechamento desta reportagem. A movimentação das usinas vem com o fim da carência de 90 dias para a entrada em vigor de pontos da nova lei que endurece punições contra distribuidoras inadimplentes (Lei nº 15.082/2024). A norma, apesar de sancionada no fim de 2024, ainda não foi regulamentada pelo governo federal. A lei determina que o descumprimento das metas individuais estabelecidas pelo Conselho Nacional de Política Energética (CNPE) constitua crime ambiental e leve à revogação da autorização para o exercício de atividade do distribuidor, além da cobrança de multa, que pode chegar a R$500 milhões. Ela também proíbe agentes da cadeia de comercializar com essas empresas nesta situação. Mas a aplicação imediata de parte das sanções enfrenta obstáculos legais. Em resposta a questionamentos feitos pela ANP, representantes da Procuradoria Federal junto à autarquia reforçaram entendimento de que a nova lei não deve retroagir. Isso significa que sanções mais duras só valeriam para metas não cumpridas a partir do ciclo de 2025, sendo aplicadas apenas em 2026. Apesar da limitação para o enforcement imediato por parte do regulador, os grandes grupos do setor de açúcar e etanol já começaram a se movimentar para cumprir com suas obrigações legais. Segundo fontes, uma primeira medida estaria relacionada ao fechamento dos próximos contratos de fornecimento, que vão de 1º de junho de um ano a 31 de maio do ano subsequente e vinculariam o fornecimento à situação das distribuidoras compradoras. Batalha jurídica Das 160 distribuidoras com metas estabelecidas no Renovabio, 60 iniciaram o ciclo de 2025 com menos Cbios aposentados do que deveriam. Destas, 13 já entraram na Justiça contra o programa e hoje mantêm alguma decisão liminar favorável às suas causas, segundo dados disponibilizados pela própria autarquia. Raízen e Evolua, líderes do setor sucroalcooleiro no Centro-Sul, são joint-ventures entre produtores e as distribuidoras Shell e Vibra ‒ ambas em conformidade com o Renovabio e críticas às distorções provocadas por distribuidoras regionais inadimplentes. Segundo dados da ANP, as 3 maiores distribuidoras do país têm sofrido com uma perda de participação de mercado nos últimos anos, saindo de um total de 66pc em 2022 para 62pc em 2024. Parte do movimento é justificado por elas pelo não atendimento de empresas concorrentes ao Renovabio e alegadas fraudes no cumprimento do mandato de mistura de biodiesel no diesel. Neste período de 2 anos, o share somado das 5 maiores inadimplentes em Cbios avançou de 5,5pc para 6,5pc. A Associação Nacional de Distribuidores de Combustíveis (ANDC), que representa distribuidoras regionais de pequeno e médio porte, protocolou, em fevereiro, petição à ANP denunciando a atitude de alguns fornecedores de biocombustíveis de recusar a venda de produto. O grupo argumenta que "o poder de polícia cabe ao poder público" e que a atitude das produtoras "fere a defesa da ordem econômica". Na ocasião, o órgão regulador respondeu que as listas divulgadas por ela com as distribuidoras que respondem a processos administrativos sancionadores "não podem ainda ser consideradas para fins de restrição no suprimento de combustíveis", já que a nova lei dos Cbios ainda não foi regulamentada. A ANDC reclama de "falta de participação social" nas discussões sobre a regulamentação do Renovabio e no próprio comitê governamental do programa. A associação diz que, depois dessas movimentações, não observou casos de produtores de biocombustíveis negando a venda de produto para distribuidoras. Por Amance Boutin e Marcos Mortari Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

Opec+ overproducers cast doubt on compensation pledges

25/04/11

Opec+ overproducers cast doubt on compensation pledges

Output is set to rise in the coming months, with Kazakhstan and Iraq unlikely to live up to commitments to rein in production, writes Aydin Calik London, 11 April (Argus) — The Opec+ alliance's planned production increases in April and May should, in theory, be offset by pledges to compensate for past overproduction, particularly by Kazakhstan and Iraq. But there are few signs that either country will significantly reduce output in the coming weeks. If anything, Kazakhstan has signalled that production will continue at or near record levels of around 1.8mn b/d , putting it some 300,000 b/d above its Opec+ target. Opec+ members subject to targets cut output by 90,000 b/d to 33.93mn b/d in March, according to Argus estimates, but this was still 80,000 b/d above the group's collective crude production target of 33.85mn b/d. The decision by a core group of eight Opec+ members to accelerate the return of 2.2mn b/d of production cuts is a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US tariff announcements. But Opec+ has stressed that its implied output increase of 137,000 b/d for April and another 411,000 b/d in May should be cancelled out by compensation-related cuts of 249,000 b/d for April and 309,000 b/d in May. In reality, this is unlikely to happen — the group's output is set to rise. Kazakhstan is the main reason why Opec+ has exceeded its target over the past two months. Kazakh production has surged following a major output increase at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January — part of the field's future growth project (FGP). Tengiz production rose to a record 901,000 b/d in March, compared with previous levels of 600,000-660,000 b/d. The increase came several months earlier than anticipated, Kazakh officials say, and they have subsequently asked international oil companies that operate Tengiz and the Kashagan oil field to reduce output. But the answer has so far been negative. "Unfortunately, we have not yet agreed with them to the reduction, because for them it is a very challenging action, especially Chevron, [which] spent $50bn on the FGP project. They told us it's not possible for them to reduce [output]," deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov said this week. Kazakhstan will try to reduce production from smaller fields operated by domestic producers such as state-controlled Kazmunaigaz, Zhamauov said. But any decrease from these fields will not be enough to offset the rise from Tengiz. Target practice Iraq's output dipped below its 4mn b/d target in March at 3.98mn b/d, but this was still well above the country's effective target of 3.88mn b/d under its compensation plan. If Iraq's past production record is anything to go by, its output is unlikely to fall much further in the months ahead. While Kazakhstan and Iraq are unlikely to see much change in their production, members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are set to drive the alliance's output higher. The biggest increase is expected from Saudi Arabia, which will see its 8.98mn b/d target rise by 222,000 b/d by May, offset only marginally by its compensation plans. Riyadh has already signalled that it is preparing to increase production after state-controlled Saudi Aramco cut the official formula price of its May-loading crude exports. The largest cut was for buyers in Asia-Pacific, Saudi Arabia's biggest market. Formula prices can indicate intentions on output, as producers fine-tune how affordable their crude is for marginal refiners. The second-largest production increase is set to come from the UAE, which has long been eager to raise output . The UAE will see its target rise by 103,000 b/d by May, which will also only be offset marginally by its compensation plan. Russia is also scheduled to deliver a significant production increase over the next two months, with its target rising by 105,000 b/d. But all of this increase will be cancelled out if the country sticks to its compensation plan. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Non-Opec 9 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 Total Opec+ 18 33.93 34.02 33.85 0.08 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.98 8.93 8.98 0.00 Iraq 3.98 4.05 4.00 -0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.43 2.41 0.01 UAE 2.91 2.93 2.91 -0.00 Algeria 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.01 Nigeria 1.49 1.58 1.50 -0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.24 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Iran 3.34 3.38 na na Libya 1.36 1.39 na na Venezuela 0.87 0.84 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.79 26.97 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.96 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.47 0.47 0.55 -0.08 Kazakhstan 1.79 1.76 1.47 0.32 Malaysia 0.36 0.36 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.07 0.07 0.12 -0.05 Total non-Opec 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Participants mostly support IMO GHG pricing mechanism

25/04/11

Participants mostly support IMO GHG pricing mechanism

London, 11 April (Argus) — International shipping organisations and market participants mostly support the global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism approved today at the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting, but some raised concerns. The structure approved by the IMO establishes that ships must reduce their fuel intensity by a "base target" of 4pc in 2028 against 93.3 gCO2e/MJ, the latter representing the average GHG fuel intensity value of international shipping in 2008. Emissions above this target will be charged at $380/tCO2e. The levels defined by the approved regulation are achievable, according to a market participant, who said the gradually increasing targets may allow the market to properly adapt to the transition. The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) secretary general Guy Platten said the sector is already investing billions of dollars in 'green' technology, so the agreement gives certainty that sustainable marine fuels producers need. "The world's governments have now come forward with a comprehensive agreement which, although not perfect in every respect, we very much hope will be formally adopted later this year," he said. The European Shipowners (ECSA) secretary general Sotiris Raptis agreed the draft "is not perfect", but he celebrated progress towards a net zero emissions target, saying "it is a good starting point for further work" and pointing out that it may ensure the necessary investment in production of clean fuels. During a press briefing, IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said ships operating in international waters will be obliged to comply with the regulations after adoption, despite the US' refusal to engage with the discussions . Adoption of the pricing mechanism will be discussed and voted on in October. Offering a counterview, the Global Maritime Forum said the agreed measures may not be strong enough to reach IMO targets. "The GHG intensity targets create uncertainty as to whether the strategy's emissions reduction checkpoints for 2030 and 2040 will be met," it said. "As currently designed, measures are unlikely to be sufficient to incentivise the rapid development of e-fuels such as e-ammonia or e-methanol , which will be needed in the long run due to their scalability and emission reduction potential." It said that failure to invest in these fuels would put at risk the target of at least 5pc zero- and near-zero emission fuel use by 2030 and the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal. The World Shipping Council's vice president Bryan Wood-Thomas praised the agreement and said one benefit of it is the pricing system that is "more aggressive" if a vessel fails to meet the GHG intensity standard. "But you also have a fee system that gives investors more confidence in actual revenue [from using cleaner fuels]," he said. The Brazilian representative told Argus the fact that some countries thought the agreement was too ambitious while others indicated it was not ambitious enough show the group may have reached a balance that can be possible to comply. About the Brazilian position, the representative said the country "was never against an agreement". "We were only against some aspects of the agreement, and we think that the membership has heard our concerns, and that's why we ended up pretty happy with the results", he said. Brazil voted in favour of the agreement today. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Madeleine Jenkins, Natália Coelho, and Gabriel Tassi Lara. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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