US winter wheat declines as rain misses key regions

: Agriculture
25/04/14

A lack of rain worsened the US winter wheat crop outlook over the week ending 13 April, with crop conditions falling in four of the top five states.

Portions of eastern Kansas, as well as western South Dakota and North Dakota did receive rain in the week following the previous US Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop conditions update. However, those areas primarily received a quarter of an inch or less of precipitation, according to US National Weather Service data, providing minimal support to the developing US winter wheat crop.

As a result, the share of US winter wheat area rated in good to excellent condition fell 1 percentage point over the week, down to 47pc. Of the top five US winter wheat producing states, crop conditions fell the most in Kansas. The state, which accounts for 22pc of total US winter wheat planted acres, saw the share of acres rated in good-to-excellent condition decline 8 percentage points from the prior week, to 43pc.

Despite the decline, the Kansas remained 5 percentage points above the five-year average. However, the crop emerged early this year due to warmer than typical temperatures and has developed quickly. As of 13 April, 46pc of the crop was reported in the jointing phase, 12 percentage points ahead of the five-year average, according to USDA data. In the next two weeks portions of the crop will begin to develop its grain producing head, making additional precipitation critical.

In addition to Kansas, winter wheat crop condition also declined in Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska. Of the top five wheat producing states, Montana was the exception with the state's winter wheat good-to-excellent ratio remaining flat with the prior week at 59pc, 13 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

Looking at the week ahead, rain is forecast across the entirety of the US high plains region. Portions of central and eastern Kansas are projected to receive an inch of rain or more, according to the US National Weather Service, adding a much-needed boost to the state's wheat crop outlook. Other portions of the region are expected to receive a quarter of an inch at most, but any additional precipitation at this point in the year will bring a boost to the crop's outlook.

By Ryan Koory

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25/04/14

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