Washington, 19 November (Argus) — Commercial barge transportation along parts of the Mississippi river may be slowed or halted in the coming weeks amid the worst drought conditions in 24 years.
The Coast Guard most likely will not have to completely close the river. But it could re-impose or add restrictions on drafts or tow sizes if water levels become too shallow, Rear Admiral Roy Nash, commander of the US Coast Guard's eighth district, said at a press conference with the Corps of Engineers and barge operators late last week.
Industry members at the conference disagreed with some of Nash's views. The prevalence of rock formations near Thebes and Grand Tower, Illinois, as well as the reduced flows from the Missouri river scheduled to start at the end of this week could bring water levels to near historic lows and effectively stop barge transportation in the middle part of the Mississippi river around 10 December, the American Waterways Operators said.
The industry group estimated transportation of 3.8mn short tons (3.4mn metric tonnes) of coal will be delayed over December and January, as will 300mn bushels of agriculture products. Also, 5mn bl of domestically produced crude oil would need to be replaced by imported product, it said.
The National Weather Service has told the corps to prepare for drought conditions to persist “well into” spring, said Major General John Peabody, commander of the Mississippi Valley division of the agency. Mississippi river water levels at St. Louis are expected to fall by more than 1ft over the next two weeks and may continue to decline through the winter. The reduction of flows from the Missouri river, which will start at the end of this week, will take 2-3ft from water levels at St. Louis, Peabody said.
“For the last six months we have faced a situation where nature has turned out to not be as cooperative as it normally is and we are now facing a drought situation that threatens to be persistent potentially for several months and possibly even years,” Peabody said. He and Nash said conditions on the river may be the driest since 1988.
Peabody last week authorized the release of water from a reservoir in Minnesota to help alleviate already compromised water levels, but that will add only 3-6 inches of depth to the Mississippi river at St. Louis, he said.
“We need rain, that is the bottom line,” Peabody said. “We have got to have rain to sustain the type of reliable navigation we are accustomed to or we are going to have to take other types of measures.”
The corps has reservoirs near Rock Island and St. Louis that it can also release if necessary, Peabody said. It has been continuously dredging parts of the river since July and expects work to begin on blasting rock pinnacles along the river early next year, he said.
The corps has said it can keep the river open to a 9ft channel with the St. Louis river stage as low as minus 5ft. But at that level barges will be limited to an 8ft draft because the coast guard requires a foot of clearance between the bottom of the river and the bottom of barges, Marty Hettel, a senior manager of AEP River Operations, said in a statement released today by the American Coal Council. Forecasts call for the stage at St. Louis to fall to minus 7.5ft by 19 December, which would limit barge drafts to 5-6ft and “shut down river shipping,” he said.
Industry members and some politicians have urged the corps to act more quickly or to stop the planned reduction in Missouri river flows. Fifteen US senators, including Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), Dick Durbin, (D-Illinois) and Roy Blunt (R-Missouri), sent a letter on 16 November to Jo-Ellen Darcy, assistant secretary for civil works, to start work on the rock removal “as soon as possible” and delay the impoundment of the Missouri river “until the rock work is completed so that navigation can be maintained.”
There are technical and legislative issues that prevent the corps from acting in such a way, Peabody said, reiterating statements the corps has made in recent weeks. The agency is required to reduce flows from the Missouri river at this time of year to help store water for use along there in coming months. In addition, portions of that river also have been beset by severe drought conditions this year.
Speeding up rock removal or doing additional dredging would require using funds not appropriated for the work, which would need congressional and White House approval, Peabody said. The corps is about two months away from starting the rock removal and even that pace brings technical challenges and also risks costs that will veer from contracted levels, he said.
“If the [Obama] administration or Congress would want us to change the way we execute,” it has the authority to do so, Peabody said. “But that is a policy decision.”
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