Potash
Overview
The potash market has been disrupted from its traditional trade flows and typically slow-moving price cycles, affected by new entrants, new mines, military conflicts and political tensions in countries that either produce or consume some of the largest quantities of potash in the world. The need for accurate insight and data is more acute than ever.
Our extensive potash coverage includes MOP, SOP and NOP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the potash market and we incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise to provide potash price assessments, analysis and data that provides the full narrative.
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Latest potash news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global potash industry.
Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025
Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025
Sao Paulo, 27 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to enter 2025 with a last-minute surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, as farmers continue to postpone purchases for the 2024-25 second corn crop. Around 10-15pc of all fertilizer needs have yet to be purchased for the corn crop, whose planting is expected to start by February in central-western Mato Grosso state. Brazilian farmers have been delaying agreements for inputs as they wait for lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices. The most delayed fertilizer acquisition is urea, with buyers expecting further price drops before committing to volumes. Granular urea prices were at $359/metric tonnes (t) cfr Brazil by 19 December, $39/t above the same period in 2023. The overall pace of input purchases is in line with farmers' buying patterns for the 2023-24 corn crop and 2024-25 soybean crop, when growers also waited until the last minute to secure final volumes. Traditional 4Q buying surged delayed Brazilian buyers used to speed up the pace of fertilizer purchases in the fourth quarter to supply the second corn crop. This would give them time to receive the inputs in time for application, without last-minute logistic concerns. But unexpected changes in fertilizer price trends, combined with changes in the timing of the soybean crop, led farmers to change this buying pattern and wait as long as possible before concluding deals. Farmers' saw this last-minute buying strategy rewarded in early 2024 when urea prices were about $393/t cfr Brazil, below levels seen earlier in October 2023. And a delay in the 2024-25 soybean planting because of unfavorable weather conditions also contributed to postponed fertilizer acquisitions for corn, since the soybean harvest would likely be delayed and force farmers to plant corn outside the ideal period. Those factors are set to again push final urea purchases to January. Some volumes traded in November-December may discharge in ports in January, intensifying deliveries in the first months of the year. Brazil imported 7.6mn t of urea in January-November, 19pc above the same period in 2023. The latest lineup data from 26 December points to around 400,000t to be delivered at ports in December and 422,000t in January, according to maritime agency Unimar. Farmers focused on acquiring ammonium sulphate (amsul) volumes in the past three months, as prices carried a discount considering the nitrogen content compared with urea while also adding sulphur. There is plenty of available compacted/granular amsul, with Chinese producers eyeing Brazil as an outlet for the product. Imports of amsul totaled 5.1mn t in the first 11 months of the year, 18pc above the same period last year. A total of 596,000t and 1.2mn t were set to discharge in ports in December and January, respectively, according to Unimar's lineup data from 26 December. The trend is the same in the domestic market, with purchases advancing slowly. Some cooperatives and retailers bought volumes to guarantee availability when farmers decide to buy. Farmers are most advanced in theirs potash (MOP) acquisitions, as its lower-than-usual price has motivated farmers to buy the fertilizer for 2025-26 corn and soybeans. Market participants estimate that around 50pc of MOP needs in Mato Grosso for the 2025-26 soybean crop were purchased by early December. Demand has been high for the first quarter of 2025, leading to expectations of intense MOP deliveries at ports. This would mean a high flow in the inland market, competing with urea volumes handling in January-February. By Gisele Augusto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand
Washington, 12 December (Argus) — US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said. Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said. "Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said. The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said. US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way. US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989. Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities. Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023. If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase. Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
Namibia bans fertilizer deliveries to neighbours
London, 12 December (Argus) — The Namibian government has prohibited the import, storage, packaging and transit of fertilizers for delivery to countries other than Namibia. A notice was issued by the agriculture, water and land reform ministry (MAWLR) on 22 November to all companies revoking the importation and in-transit permits for fertilizers. It states that companies have 21 days to package the product in 1t bags and export the material or "surrender the products for destruction" at the company's cost. The ban comes into effect on 13 December. The notice applies to urea, MAP, DAP, amsul, CAN, NOP, MOP, SOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. The duration of this ban is not yet known. Vessels offloading cargo intended for delivery outside Namibia will not be allowed to dock. The notice cites that the handling and storage of bulk and bagged fertilizers at Walvis Bay does not meet regulatory requirements. It also states that environmental and safety risks for contamination, leakage and exposure to external elements could have a long-term effect. The Walvis Bay port is used for offloading fertilizer deliveries before they are transited to inland countries such as Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Shipments for these countries are now likely to be rerouted through Beira, Mozambique. Negotiations between the governments of Namibia and Zambia are reportedly under way. Zambia is currently experiencing a severe fertilizer shortage, and given the delays at Beira, importing via Namibia and transporting it inland is the country's next best alternative to procure the volumes in time. By Upasruti Biswas and Nykole King Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mosaic potash output returns at Canada facility
Mosaic potash output returns at Canada facility
Houston, 3 December (Argus) — Potash production resumed this week at major North American fertilizer producer Mosaic's Colonsay processing facility in Saskatchewan, Canada, after the roof collapsed last month. Output at the facility resumed on 1 December after being previously halted on 19 November when the roof of a structure that houses its potash manufacturing process collapsed. The incident appears to be isolated, as no injuries or safety incidents related to the event took place and Mosaic's potash reserves were unaffected. Mosaic does not anticipate an impact to overall fourth quarter sales, it said. The Colonsay mine site has a capacity of 1.5mn metric tonnes (t) of potash annually but produced only 600,00t in 2023. More recently production at Colonsay and the nearby Esterhazy mine was disrupted during the third quarter of this year because of electrical issues that have since been handled. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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