Trump eyes trade agreement with China in March

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas
22/02/19

US president Donald Trump said today he expects to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, next month to work out final details of an agreement resolving trade disputes between the two countries.

In the meantime, Trump said he likely will delay the increase in US tariff rates on $200bn/yr of imports from China, scheduled to increase to 25pc from 10pc on 2 March. Trump said the meeting with Xi could possibly take place at Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida.

"We have a one time shot at making a deal between our countries," Trump said in the White House, in the presence of senior US and Chinese trade negotiators. The latest round of talks, which started yesterday, will be extended until 24 February to give the delegations more time to finalize the terms.

"Our expectation is to conclude this quickly and get to the point over the next few days of making progress and recommending a meeting between you and president Xi in March," treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

"We made progress on some very important structural issues, but we have a few big hurdles we still have to face," US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said, in reference to Washington's insistence on guarantees to cut the US trade deficit, implement stronger IP protections and end forced technology transfers.

The US wants a pledge from Beijing that it will increase imports of agricultural, energy commodities and other US products in a bid to eliminate a $370bn/yr trade deficit. Trump said the US has also secured an agreement from Beijing to prevent "currency manipulation" — even though the US Treasury Department does not accuse China of that practice.

US and Chinese negotiators have prepared a number of memorandums of understanding (MoU) to document binding commitments from Beijing on buying specific products, Lighthizer and Mnuchin said, only to be overruled on the spot by Trump.

"Why do you bother putting it in the form of a letter of intent or whatever you wanna call it," Trump said. "An MoU is not a contract to the extent we want." Trump said he preferred all side deals to be combined into a comprehensive agreement he can sign with Xi.

"From now on, we will never use 'MoU,' we will use 'trade agreement,'" Lighthizer said.

"We believe it is very likely an agreement will happen and we believe we ultimately will succeed," China's vice premiere Liu He said.

Liu read a letter from Xi, who said possible progress in trade talks would be "well received in both countries and the international community" — emphasizing that the ongoing trade war is having a negative effect on economic growth in the US and China.

A delay in the tariff hike means the Xi-Trump summit will take place after the annual national legislative assembly meeting in Beijing in early March, an occasion China's leaders use to preview major changes in government policies.

Trump said he may be even willing to discuss setting aside financial fraud charges the US Department of Justice has brought against Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, as part of a comprehensive deal. "We may or may not include it with this deal. I will have to discuss it with the attorney general," Trump said.

The trade war with China cut off a growing market for US oil and LNG exports in the second half of 2018. China took a small amount of US crude in November — a total of 250,000 bl for the month or 8,300 b/d — after exports stopped in the previous three months, US government data show. By comparison, China took an average of 377,000 b/d of US crude in January-July 2018 and was consistently the first or second top destination for US crude.

Trump last month announced a commitment from Xi to buy an additional 5mn t of US soybeans, which compares with 7.93mn t US exported to China in January-September 2018.

But US agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue declined to offer more details on the amount of US agricultural goods that China could buy, saying it would be "very premature" to offer specifics because they were contingent on a "grand deal" coming together and resolving core issues of structural reform.

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29/04/25

Trump tweaks tariff burden on US automakers

Washington, 29 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration has offered to offset the 25pc tariff on foreign-made auto parts, scheduled to start on 3 May, and to exempt auto parts from any additional tariffs they face from other import taxes imposed in recent months. Trump, who today announced the change in tariffs ahead of a political rally in Michigan, a key US car manufacturing state, cast his decision in terms of giving US automakers a reprieve from his tariff policies. But as in other cases when he changed his mind on tariffs, the US auto industry will still face a substantial burden from import taxes imposed since Trump took office. Trump's 25pc tariffs on foreign cars went into effect on 3 April, and a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts was scheduled to go into effect on 3 May. Under an executive order Trump signed today, the auto makers can be partially refunded the cost of the tariffs on imported auto parts, subject to a cap of 15pc of the value of an assembled car until April 2026, dropping to a 10pc cap until April 2027. The refund cannot exceed 3.75pc of a car's manufacturer suggested retail price in the first year, dropping to 2.5pc in the second year. The idea behind the adjustment is to force US automakers to become wholly reliant on auto parts made in the US in the next two years, commerce secretary Howard Lutnick explained. In theory, at least, a US-made car that is made with 85pc domestic components would not face an additional tariff cost. A separate executive order clarifies that the tariffs on foreign-made cars and auto parts will not be calculated in addition to any other tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada and Mexico, and will not be counted on top of tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum and their derivative products. "This is just a little transition," Trump told reporters at the White House today, announcing the latest reversal of his tariff policy. "We're just giving them a little chance, because in some cases, they can't get the parts fast enough." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US consumer confidence falls for 5th month in April

29/04/25

US consumer confidence falls for 5th month in April

Houston, 29 April (Argus) — US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago, and consumer expectations fell to the lowest since October 2011, according to a Conference Board survey released today. The consumer confidence index fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April, the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since the US was emerging from a brief recession in 2020 that was triggered by the pandemic and the related economic shutdown. The expectations index, based on US consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, dropped by 12.5 points to 54.4, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The three segments of the expectations index — business conditions, employment prospects and future income — "all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future", according to the Conference Board. "Tariffs are now on top of consumers' minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high," the board said. "Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy." The share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months was 32.1pc, nearly as high as in April 2009 during the Great Recession. The present situation index, based on consumers view of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 0.9 to 133.5. "High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers' views about the stock market deeper into negative territory", with 48.5pc expecting stock prices to fall in the next 12 months. Average expectations for US inflation levels in 12 months rose to 7pc, the highest since November 2022. The Conference Board is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank based in the US. Its monthly consumer confidence survey is based on an online sample of consumers. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

29/04/25

New Trinidad PM to seek access to Venezuelan gas

Kingston, 29 April (Argus) — Major LNG exporter Trinidad and Tobago's new government wants to open discussions with the administration of US president Donald Trump on access to natural gas fields on the border with Venezuela. United National Congress (UNC) party leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar will be the new prime minister of the Caribbean state of 1.5mn people after the party won Monday's general election, ending 10 years of administration by the People's National Congress (PNC) party of Stuart Young. The UNC won 26 seats in the 41-member assembly. "We will work with the Trump administration to see how the discussions with the Venezuelan government on the cross-border gas fields can be reopened," the UNC's energy spokesman David Lee said. Lee is expected to be appointed the energy minister. "We do not have any closed doors on this matter," Lee said. "We will directly engage the US so it will be confident in working with us on resolving our cross-border issues." Trinidad and Tobago's gas-short economy was set back earlier this month by the Trump government's revocation of licenses granted by the administration of former US president Joe Biden to Trinidad. The waivers exempted certain work to develop two gas fields that straddle the maritime border with Venezuela from US sanctions. Access to the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields is "vital" to reversing Trinidad's fall in gas production, Young said. Trinidad has been struggling to recover natural gas flow since November 2017, following a long slide from a peak of 4.3 Bcf/d in 2010. Gas output in 2024 was 2.53 Bcf/d, and the fall in output suppressed LNG, petrochemical and fertilizer production. Trinidad's 2024 LNG production of 16.7mn m³ was down by 4.6pc on 2023, according to the latest energy ministry data. The 11.8mn t/yr Atlantic liquefaction plant in southwestern Trinidad, which is majority owned by Shell and BP, is Trinidad's sole LNG producer. Crude production has also declined, moving from a peak of 144,400 b/d in 2005 to 50,854 b/d in 2024, according to the energy ministry. The decline in crude feedstock contributed to the 2018 shutdown of the state-owned 160,000 b/d Guaracara refinery. Young's administration failed at several attempts to engage foreign investors to reopen the plant. The government last month selected Nigerian privately owned oil and gas company Oando to lease and operate the refinery. But the incoming UNC administration will terminate negotiations with Oando to reopen the refinery and will seek new investors for the plant, the party said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

29/04/25

Canada’s Liberals win minority government

Calgary, 29 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party rode a wave of anti-US sentiment to victory in Monday's election, but fell just short of an elusive majority. The Liberals are on track to take 168 of the 343 seats in Parliament, according to Elections Canada, which said counting has carried over to today on account of a large voter turnout. If current levels hold, this will mark a six seat improvement for the Liberals over the 2021 election, but they will still require the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The Conservatives will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats. Despite the loss, the Conservatives made the largest gain of any party compared to the 2021 election, when they won 119 seats. Who will lead the Conservatives in Parliament is unclear, however, with current leader Pierre Poilievre losing his Ottawa seat to a Liberal candidate and being on the outside looking in for the first time in 20 years. Carney won his neighbouring seat handily, with the results indicative of which leader Canadians preferred to take on US president Donald Trump. The election was largely centered around trade and the economy which was brought to the forefront by Trump's tariffs and "51st state" rhetoric, turning the election into a two-horse race between the parties with the most realistic chances of forming a government. "President Trump is trying to break us so that America can own us. That will never, ever happen," said Carney in his victory speech. "We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons." Carney plans to sit with Trump to discuss the trade relationship between the two countries, but says Canada has "many, many other options" than the US to build prosperity. The Liberals garnered about 43.5pc of the popular vote while the Conservatives hit 41.4pc, according to preliminary results, each representing the highest for their respective parties since the 1980s. Liberal and Conservative gains came at the expense of the smaller New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloq Quebecois who may still hold influence in government despite suffering steep losses. The NDP are likely to end with seven seats, down from 25 in the 2021 election and below the 12 required for official party status in Parliament. The Bloq Quebecois, a regional party standing for sovereignty in Quebec, fell to 23 seats from 32 across the same time frame. The Liberals were propped up by the NDP since 2022 and may turn to the left-leaning party yet again to push legislation through. The NDP, nearly being wiped out, could hold the balance of power yet again but they will need to regroup after its leader also lost his seat. Carney admits Canada must build more infrastructure to both kickstart a lagging economy but also diversify its trade partners further beyond the US. The Conservatives agree more must be done and it is likely common ground could be found between the two parties to progress the export of energy, critical minerals and more. "We are going to build," said Carney. "Build, baby, build." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

N Sea benchmark crude loadings at 20-year low in June

29/04/25

N Sea benchmark crude loadings at 20-year low in June

London, 29 April (Argus) — Combined loadings of the five local North Sea benchmark grades Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll will drop to 350,000 b/d in June, the lowest in at least 20 years. Only one cargo of Ekofisk is planned for June, to load in the last days of the month. This is the lowest on Argus ' records going back more than 15 years. The number of the only June cargo suggests that one shipment was added to the May programme, but this was not confirmed. The drop in Ekofisk exports is a result of maintenance. ConocoPhillips will shut down the fields it operates in the Ekofisk area and the Nordpipe system for maintenance in June, the company previously told Argus . The planned shutdown will last around four weeks. The company did not specify by how much exports would be reduced. ConocoPhillips operates the Ekofisk and the Eldfisk fields in the Ekofisk area, which produced around 100,000 b/d of crude last year. Loadings of Brent will be largely steady at 23,000 b/d, or one cargo. Both Norwegian-produced Oseberg and Troll will have one fewer cargo in June, with two and three, respectively. Forties is the only grade of which exports will increase in June to 187,000 b/d across eight cargoes, up by 18pc, or one shipment, from May. Forties production will drop to a four-year low during maintenance in August . Such low availability of just one cargo of benchmark crude loading every other day can support the price of North Sea Dated in May. The sixth benchmark grade US WTI, added to the basket in mid-2023, offers much higher liquidity, with around 1.4mn b/d delivered to Europe so far this year — or roughly two cargoes a day. But local grades have been setting Dated as the cheapest option 84pc of the time this year so far, and tighter supply in June could support the benchmark's price. By Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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