Trump eyes trade agreement with China in March

Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas
22/02/19

US president Donald Trump said today he expects to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, next month to work out final details of an agreement resolving trade disputes between the two countries.

In the meantime, Trump said he likely will delay the increase in US tariff rates on $200bn/yr of imports from China, scheduled to increase to 25pc from 10pc on 2 March. Trump said the meeting with Xi could possibly take place at Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida.

"We have a one time shot at making a deal between our countries," Trump said in the White House, in the presence of senior US and Chinese trade negotiators. The latest round of talks, which started yesterday, will be extended until 24 February to give the delegations more time to finalize the terms.

"Our expectation is to conclude this quickly and get to the point over the next few days of making progress and recommending a meeting between you and president Xi in March," treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

"We made progress on some very important structural issues, but we have a few big hurdles we still have to face," US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said, in reference to Washington's insistence on guarantees to cut the US trade deficit, implement stronger IP protections and end forced technology transfers.

The US wants a pledge from Beijing that it will increase imports of agricultural, energy commodities and other US products in a bid to eliminate a $370bn/yr trade deficit. Trump said the US has also secured an agreement from Beijing to prevent "currency manipulation" — even though the US Treasury Department does not accuse China of that practice.

US and Chinese negotiators have prepared a number of memorandums of understanding (MoU) to document binding commitments from Beijing on buying specific products, Lighthizer and Mnuchin said, only to be overruled on the spot by Trump.

"Why do you bother putting it in the form of a letter of intent or whatever you wanna call it," Trump said. "An MoU is not a contract to the extent we want." Trump said he preferred all side deals to be combined into a comprehensive agreement he can sign with Xi.

"From now on, we will never use 'MoU,' we will use 'trade agreement,'" Lighthizer said.

"We believe it is very likely an agreement will happen and we believe we ultimately will succeed," China's vice premiere Liu He said.

Liu read a letter from Xi, who said possible progress in trade talks would be "well received in both countries and the international community" — emphasizing that the ongoing trade war is having a negative effect on economic growth in the US and China.

A delay in the tariff hike means the Xi-Trump summit will take place after the annual national legislative assembly meeting in Beijing in early March, an occasion China's leaders use to preview major changes in government policies.

Trump said he may be even willing to discuss setting aside financial fraud charges the US Department of Justice has brought against Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, as part of a comprehensive deal. "We may or may not include it with this deal. I will have to discuss it with the attorney general," Trump said.

The trade war with China cut off a growing market for US oil and LNG exports in the second half of 2018. China took a small amount of US crude in November — a total of 250,000 bl for the month or 8,300 b/d — after exports stopped in the previous three months, US government data show. By comparison, China took an average of 377,000 b/d of US crude in January-July 2018 and was consistently the first or second top destination for US crude.

Trump last month announced a commitment from Xi to buy an additional 5mn t of US soybeans, which compares with 7.93mn t US exported to China in January-September 2018.

But US agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue declined to offer more details on the amount of US agricultural goods that China could buy, saying it would be "very premature" to offer specifics because they were contingent on a "grand deal" coming together and resolving core issues of structural reform.

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22/11/24

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

Developing countries' discontent over the climate finance offer is meeting a muted response, writes Caroline Varin Baku, 22 November (Argus) — As the UN Cop 29 climate conference went into overtime, early reactions of consternation towards a new climate finance draft quickly gave way to studious silence, and some new numbers floated by developing nations. Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal — or climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The updated draft of the new finance goal text — the centrepiece of this Cop — proposes a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". This is the developed country parties' submission, the Cop 29 presidency acknowledged. Developing nations have been waiting for this number for months, and calling on developed economies to come up with one throughout this summit. They rejected the offer instantly. "The [$250bn/yr] offered by developed countries is a spit in the face of vulnerable nations like mine," Panama's lead climate negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, said. Negotiating group the Alliance of Small Island States called it "a cap that will severely stagnate climate action efforts". The African Group of Negotiators and Colombia called it "unacceptable". This is far off the mark for developing economies, which earlier this week floated numbers of $440bn-600bn/yr for a public finance layer. They also called for $1.3 trillion/yr in total climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. China reiterated on 21 November that "the voluntary support" of the global south was not to be counted towards the goal. A UN-mandated expert group indicated that the figure put forward by developed countries "is too low" and not consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. The new finance goal for developing countries, based on components that it covers, should commit developed countries to provide at least $300bn/yr by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035, it said. Brazil indicated that it is now pushing for these targets. The final amount for the new finance goal could potentially be around $300bn-350bn/yr, a Somalian delegate told Argus . A goal of $300bn/yr by 2035 is achievable with projected finance, further reforms and shareholder support at multilateral development banks (MDBs), and some growth in bilateral funding, climate think-tank WRI's finance programme director, Melanie Robinson, said. "Going beyond [$300bn/yr] would even be possible if a high proportion of developing countries' share of MDB finance is included," she added. All eyes turn to the EU Unsurprisingly, developed nations offered more muted responses. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior goal [of $100bn/yr]," a senior US official said, and the new goal will require even more ambition and "extraordinary reach". The US has just achieved its target to provide $11bn/yr in climate finance under the Paris climate agreement by 2024. But US climate funding is likely to dry up once president-elect Donald Trump, a climate sceptic who withdrew the US from the Paris accord during his first term, takes office. Norway simply told Argus that the delegation was "happier" with the text. The EU has stayed silent, with all eyes on the bloc as the US' influence wanes. The EU contributed €28.6bn ($29.8bn) in climate finance from public budgets in 2023. Developed nations expressed frustration towards the lack of progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Mentions of fossil fuels have been removed from new draft texts, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels. This could still represent a potential red line for them. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opinion: Bridging the divide

22/11/24

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22/11/24

Opinion: Bridging the divide

Cop summits put the gap between developed and developing countries in stark relief and demand a strong moderator Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The UN's Cop climate summits always involve a high-stakes test of multilateralism. But the Cop 29 gathering that is crawling towards its conclusion in Baku this week has pushed this concept to its limit. The summit faced serious challenges even before it kicked off. Azerbaijan took on the presidency relatively late in the day and the country's president, Ilham Aliyev, irritated some delegates with an opening speech that lauded oil and gas as a "gift from God" and railed against "western fake news". His comments on European nations' Pacific island territories prompted France's energy minister to boycott the talks, while the Cop chief executive was caught on film trying to facilitate fossil fuel deals. And the broader geopolitical background for the gathering was, of course, "grim", as EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra noted, even before delegates tackled the summit's key discussion topic — money. At the heart of this year's Cop is the need to agree a new climate finance goal — a hugely divisive subject at the best of times. Discussions start with countries' wealth, take into account historical responsibility for emissions, and often end up with accusations of neocolonialism and calls for reparations. Figuring out who pays for what is crucial to advancing any kind of meaningful energy transition — and is hence a regular Cop sticking point. Developing countries have long argued that they are not able to decarbonise or implement energy transition plans without adequate financing, and they are prepared to hold other issues hostage to achieve this. Equally, developed countries will not budge on finance until stronger emissions cuts are pledged. Cop summits throw the developed/developing world divide into stark relief as well as shine an unforgiving light on weak management and oversight of Cop debate — an event where every country has an equal vote and needs a strong moderator to bridge that deepening developed and developing world division. This year's summit falls between two much more heavily-hyped Cops, and next year's host Brazil has already taken centre stage, boosted by also holding the G20 presidency. Cop 29 president Mukhtar Babayev asked Brazil and 2021 host the UK to help ensure a balanced outcome, while a strong focus on climate at this week's G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro lent some support to discussions in Baku. More challenges loom. US president-elect Donald Trump has threatened to pull the US — the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter — out of the UN Paris Agreement for a second time, and there are fears that fellow G20 member Argentina might quit too. But the Cop process has dealt with some of these challenges before — it is built to withstand a term or two of an unsympathetic world leader, and any exits from the Paris accord could galvanise others to step up their policy commitments, several delegates in Baku suggest. And the issue overshadowing it all — and the reason nearly 200 countries still turn up each year — is not going away. The world has already warmed by around 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels and this year is set to smash last year's record as the hottest. Leaders from both developed and developing countries spoke of catastrophic floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms. It has become a truism, but when it comes to the tricky issue of money, the only thing more daunting than the cost of tackling climate change is the cost of ignoring it. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Brazil eyes $300bn/yr for climate finance goal

22/11/24

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22/11/24

Cop: Brazil eyes $300bn/yr for climate finance goal

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil has set out a suggestion of "at least" $300bn/yr in climate finance to be provided by developed countries to developing nations. Brazilian representatives set out their proposal today, in response to a draft text on a new climate finance goal. Brazil's proposal of $300bn/yr in climate finance by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035 are in line with the recommendations of a UN-mandated expert group. Negotiations at Cop are continuing late into the evening of the official last day of the conference, with no final texts in sight. Discussions centre around the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — the climate financing that will be made available to developing countries in the coming years to help them reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The presidency draft text released this morning put the figure at $250bn/yr by 2035, with a call for "all actors" to work towards a stretch goal of $1.3tn/yr. Representatives of developing countries have reacted angrily to the figure put forward in the text, saying it is far too low. Brazil's proposal appears to call for all of the $300bn-$390bn to be made up of direct public financing, which could then mobilise further funding to reach the $1.3tn/yr. It was inspired by the findings of a UN report, Brazil said. The UN-backed independent high-level group on climate finance today said that the $250bn/yr figure was "too low," and recommended the higher $300bn-390bn/yr goal. Brazil's ask would be a significant step up in the required public financing. The $250bn/yr target includes direct public financing and mobilised private financing, and potentially includes contributions from both developed and developing countries. Wealthier developing countries have been hesitant to see their climate financing fall in this category, which they say should be made up exclusively of developed country money, in line with the Paris Agreement. But $300bn/yr would represent an increase in ambition, Brazil said, while the $250bn/yr called for in the draft text would be very similar to the $100bn/yr goal set in 2009, after taking into account inflation. Delegates at Cop look set to continue discussions into the night. A plenary session planned for late in the evening, which would have allowed parties to express their positions in public, has been cancelled, suggesting groups still have differences to hammer out. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

22/11/24

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22/11/24

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The new draft on the climate finance goal from the UN Cop 29 climate summit presidency has developed nations contributing $250bn/yr by 2035, while language on fossil fuels has been dropped, indicating work towards a compromise on these two central issues. There is no mention of fossil fuels in either the new draft text on the global stocktake — which follows up the outcome of Cop 28 last year, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels — or in the new draft for the climate finance goal. Developed countries wanted a reference to moving away from fossil fuels included, indicating that not having one would be a red line. The new draft text on the climate finance goal would mark a substantial compromise for developing countries, with non-profit WRI noting that this is "the bridging text". Parties are negotiating the next iteration of the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25 — known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The new draft sets out a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". It also notes that developed countries will "take the lead". It sets out that the finance could come from multilateral development banks (MDBs) too. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal... $250bn will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach," a US official said. "This goal will need to be supported by ambitious bilateral action, MDB contributions and efforts to better mobilise private finance, among other critical factors," the official added. India had indicated earlier this week that the country was seeking around $600bn/yr for a public finance layer from developed countries. Developing countries had been asking for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. The draft text acknowledges the need to "enable the scaling up of financing… from all public and private sources" to that figure. On the contributor base — which developed countries have long pushed to expand — the text indicates that climate finance contributions from developing countries could supplement the finance goal. It is unclear how this language will land with developing nations. China yesterday reiterated that "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. The global stocktake draft largely focuses on the initiatives set out by the Cop 29 presidency, on enhancing power grids and energy storage, though it does stress the "urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures". It dropped a previous option, opposed by Saudi Arabia, that mentioned actions aimed at "transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mitigation, or cutting emissions, and climate finance have been the overriding issues at Cop 29. Developing countries have long said they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Developed countries are calling for substantially stronger global action on emissions reduction. By Georgia Gratton and Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

22/11/24

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22/11/24

Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

London, 22 November (Argus) — Bangladesh's ministry of agriculture has issued a new private-sector tender to buy DAP and TSP, closing on 27 November. The ministry did not specify the total quantities sought but specified that each private importer can offer a maximum of 30,000t of TSP and 40,000t of DAP in the tender. The cargoes offered under the tender are to be shipped by 30 December, and nominated importers must issue letters of credit within seven working days of receiving the work order. The ministry closed a private-sector tender to buy DAP and TSP on 18 November and has probably awarded at least 40,000t of Moroccan DAP at $678.40/t cfr in the tender. It had received offers for 120,000t of DAP at prices ranging from $678.40-711.00/t cfr and 113,000t of TSP at prices ranging from $561.90-585.00/t cfr. BCIC seeks 10,000t of phosphoric acid in tender Bangladeshi state-owned importer BCIC has issued a fresh tender to buy 10,000t of phosphoric acid containing 52-54pc P2O5, closing on 8 January. It wants the cargo to be shipped within 30 days of issuing the letter of credit for delivery to Chattogram. Trading firm Sun International submitted the only offer in BCIC's 20 November tender for 20,000t of the same grade of acid. It offered South African or Chinese acid at $620.87/t cfr (equivalent to $1,150-1,194/t P2O5 cfr), or $530.87/t fob. In its 18 November tender to buy 10,000t of 52-54pc P2O5 acid, BCIC received offers of $1,163-1,213/t P2O5 cfr equivalent. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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