Trump eyes trade agreement with China in March

: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas
19/02/22

US president Donald Trump said today he expects to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, next month to work out final details of an agreement resolving trade disputes between the two countries.

In the meantime, Trump said he likely will delay the increase in US tariff rates on $200bn/yr of imports from China, scheduled to increase to 25pc from 10pc on 2 March. Trump said the meeting with Xi could possibly take place at Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida.

"We have a one time shot at making a deal between our countries," Trump said in the White House, in the presence of senior US and Chinese trade negotiators. The latest round of talks, which started yesterday, will be extended until 24 February to give the delegations more time to finalize the terms.

"Our expectation is to conclude this quickly and get to the point over the next few days of making progress and recommending a meeting between you and president Xi in March," treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

"We made progress on some very important structural issues, but we have a few big hurdles we still have to face," US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said, in reference to Washington's insistence on guarantees to cut the US trade deficit, implement stronger IP protections and end forced technology transfers.

The US wants a pledge from Beijing that it will increase imports of agricultural, energy commodities and other US products in a bid to eliminate a $370bn/yr trade deficit. Trump said the US has also secured an agreement from Beijing to prevent "currency manipulation" — even though the US Treasury Department does not accuse China of that practice.

US and Chinese negotiators have prepared a number of memorandums of understanding (MoU) to document binding commitments from Beijing on buying specific products, Lighthizer and Mnuchin said, only to be overruled on the spot by Trump.

"Why do you bother putting it in the form of a letter of intent or whatever you wanna call it," Trump said. "An MoU is not a contract to the extent we want." Trump said he preferred all side deals to be combined into a comprehensive agreement he can sign with Xi.

"From now on, we will never use 'MoU,' we will use 'trade agreement,'" Lighthizer said.

"We believe it is very likely an agreement will happen and we believe we ultimately will succeed," China's vice premiere Liu He said.

Liu read a letter from Xi, who said possible progress in trade talks would be "well received in both countries and the international community" — emphasizing that the ongoing trade war is having a negative effect on economic growth in the US and China.

A delay in the tariff hike means the Xi-Trump summit will take place after the annual national legislative assembly meeting in Beijing in early March, an occasion China's leaders use to preview major changes in government policies.

Trump said he may be even willing to discuss setting aside financial fraud charges the US Department of Justice has brought against Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, as part of a comprehensive deal. "We may or may not include it with this deal. I will have to discuss it with the attorney general," Trump said.

The trade war with China cut off a growing market for US oil and LNG exports in the second half of 2018. China took a small amount of US crude in November — a total of 250,000 bl for the month or 8,300 b/d — after exports stopped in the previous three months, US government data show. By comparison, China took an average of 377,000 b/d of US crude in January-July 2018 and was consistently the first or second top destination for US crude.

Trump last month announced a commitment from Xi to buy an additional 5mn t of US soybeans, which compares with 7.93mn t US exported to China in January-September 2018.

But US agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue declined to offer more details on the amount of US agricultural goods that China could buy, saying it would be "very premature" to offer specifics because they were contingent on a "grand deal" coming together and resolving core issues of structural reform.

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25/04/29

Australia’s Fortescue lifts iron ore sales in Jan-Mar

Sydney, 29 April (Argus) — Australian metal producer Fortescue shipped 46mn wet metric tonnes (wmt) of iron ore on a 100pc basis in January-March, up by 6.5pc on the year, despite facing weather challenges. Fortescue left its export guidance for the 2025 financial year ending 30 June unchanged at 190mn-200mn wmt of ore, including 5mn-9mn wmt of magnetite concentrate from its Iron Bridge mine, in its January-March quarterly report on 29 April. The company sold 143mn wmt of ore, including 4.7mn wmt of Iron Bridge magnetite, in the nine months to 31 March. Fortescue increased its shipments across every product category on the year in January-March (see table) , because of the partial ramp-up of Iron Bridge and an ore car derailment in January-March 2024. These factors offset the impact of multiple cyclone-related port disruptions in Western Australia (WA) over January-February. Fortescue's Iron Bridge magnetite sales tripled on the year but remained flat on the quarter in January-March. The company is reviewing the 22mn t/yr mine's ramp-up schedule and will announce a plan to reach full capacity by late June. Fortescue originally planned to increase Iron Bridge's output to capacity by September, before it in February backed away from that date. The company improved ore processing circuits at the mine during the last quarter, replacing the lining of air classifiers, Fortescue told investors on 29 April. Fortescue's iron ore fines products accounted for 55pc of its total sales in January-March, down slightly from 56pc a year earlier. Iron ore fines tend to be less valuable than similarly graded iron ore lumps, as they require additional processing. Fortescue's iron ore cash costs decreased by 7pc from $18.93/wmt a year earlier to $17.53/wmt, on the back of mine performance improvements. The company left its cash cost guidance for the 2025 financial year unchanged at $18.50-19.75/wmt. Fortescue's cash costs hovered in the upper end of its guidance over the first half of the 2025 financial year, reaching $19.20/wmt. Many of Fortescue's WA competitors experienced sales declines in January-March, because of cyclone-related disruptions. WA iron ore shipments from global metals firm BHP and UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto declined by 7.8pc and 18pc on the year, respectively, during the quarter. Argus ' iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price has been falling since late-January. It was last assessed at $99.10/t on 28 April, down from $105.25/t on 31 January. By Avinash Govind Fortescue Shipments by Product mn wmt Jan-Mar '25 Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '24 Jul-Mar '25 Jul-Mar '24 y-o-y Change (%) YTD Change (%) Iron Bridge Concentrate 1.5 0.5 1.5 4.7 0.6 200.0 683.0 West Pilbara Fines 3.4 3.0 3.6 10.6 11.6 13.0 -8.6 Kings Fines 4.0 3.9 4.1 11.8 11.2 2.6 5.4 Fortescue Blend 17.0 17.0 18.0 53.0 58.0 3.0 -10.0 Fortescue Lump 1.8 1.6 1.9 5.8 6.1 13.0 -4.9 Super Special Fines 18.0 18.0 20.0 58.0 50.0 2.9 15.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - -100.0 Total 46.0 43.0 49.0 143.0 138.0 6.5 3.8 Fortescue Argus' iron ore cfr Qingdao prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

25/04/29

Carney’s Liberals to form next Canadian government

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and his Liberal party are projected to win the country's 45th general election, but securing a majority of seats in Parliament is unclear with many tight races still to be determined. The Liberal party is on track to take 156 of the 343 seats up for grabs, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada at about 11pm ET. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form the official opposition with an estimated 144 seats so far. The Liberals seat count is comparable to the 160 won in the 2021 election while the Conservatives are up from 119. If the Liberals win a minority they would need the support of other parties to pass legislation, as they did prior to the election. The win completes the comeback for the Liberal party which just a few months ago languished in polls as dissatisfaction of then-prime minister Justin Trudeau rose. Carney and his experience navigating economic crises resonated with voters as they found themselves in a trade war initiated by US president Donald Trump. The US has imposed a 25pc tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum since 13 March and Canadian automobiles since 9 April. Canada has retaliated to each wave with tariffs of their own. Canadian oil and gas has been exempt from US tariffs but Trump's trade action has led many politicians and Canadians at large to re-examine the need to diversify its energy exports. Trade corridors, pipelines and LNG facilities were promoted by both Carney and Poilievre. Carney and Trump agreed in late-March that broader, comprehensive economic negotiations would happen after the election. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. Inflation, housing, Trump top concerns The key issues for Canadians this election cycle were inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations — particularly the aggressive moves from the US, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Carney's campaign had centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

25/04/28

Brazil to hold auction to recover degraded land

Sao Paulo, 28 April (Argus) — Brazil's finance, environment and agriculture ministries will host a second auction to recover 1mn hectares (ha) of degraded lands in all Brazilian biomes except the Amazon, the national treasury said on Monday. The auction will be a part of Eco Invest, a currency-hedging program targeting renewable and low-carbon projects to draw foreign investment, announced in February 2024. The finance ministry and central bank developed the program with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. The auction is part of New Brazil, a wider energy transition project within the finance ministry. The project aims to finance conversions of degraded lands in different biomes to sustainable and productive ecosystems through private investments. The Amazon biome, the most hit by deforestation, will receive a "customized and exclusive auction" that will be announced later, the environment ministry said. Participants must submit project proposals to the national treasury by 13 June. The government expects to raise up to R10bn ($1.76bn) in the auction. Land-use change and deforestation Emissions from land-use change and deforestation in Brazil reached 1.06bn metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2023, down by 24pc from a year earlier, according to greenhouse gas tracking platform SEEG. These activities have been leading Brazil's total emissions since 1990 — when historic tracking began — followed by agriculture and cattle raising and the energy sectors. There are currently 280mn ha of farmlands, of which around 29pc are degraded. The government aims to recover up to 40mn ha of grasslands in the next 10 years, the environment and climate change ministry said. The Eco Invest auction will finance the first round of the initiative, dubbed the Green Way program, according to the agriculture ministry. Brazil aims to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions by 67pc by 2035 from its 2005 levels and sees reducing deforestation as one of its main ways to achieve that goal. The country will host the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem city, in the Amazon biome, as the administration looks to lead the global energy transition . By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadians go to polls in general election

25/04/28

Canadians go to polls in general election

Calgary, 28 April (Argus) — Voting in Canada is underway today with the governing Liberal party looking to complete a comeback in polling against the Conservative party to clinch its fourth-straight term. There are 343 seats up for grabs in Canada's Parliament and polls throughout the five-week campaign indicate the Liberals have a reasonable chance to win a majority, which would allow them to implement policies without needing the support of other parties. Latest polling figures show the Liberals at 43pc, the Conservatives at 39pc, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 8pc, the Bloq Quebecois at 6pc, and the Green Party at 2pc, according to poll aggregator Canada338 on Monday. The Liberals have held power since 2015, but only in a minority capacity since the 2019 election. The key issues for Canadians this election cycle are inflation, housing, cost of living and international relations, according to polls. Diversifying trade and growing energy production have been promoted by both Conservative and Liberal leaders — and prime minister hopefuls — looking to become less dependent on US customers and kickstart a lagging economy. Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer with over 5.7mn b/d of output, and the fifth-largest natural gas producer at 18 Bcf/d, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP). The US is Canada's largest foreign customer of each, but verbal and economic attacks on Canada by US president Donald Trump have prompted politicians and Canadians at large to reexamine their trade strategies. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre says Liberal policies over the past decade have stifled the country's productivity and allowed it to become the weakest performer in the G7. Liberal policy needs to be undone so Canada can "unleash" its oil and gas sector to better protect its sovereignty , says Poilievre. Liberal leader Mark Carney's campaign has centered heavily on Trump, emphasizing the threat comes from abroad, not within. Carney wants to make Canada an "energy superpower" but maintains current legislation is the way to do it, despite calls to the contrary by oil and gas executives . A fresh face for the Liberals and a foe to rally against in Trump has lifted the fortunes of the party, which some critics speculated only months ago could lose most of its seats. As recent as January, the Liberals were facing a 26-point deficit in polls, but the party mounted a comeback at the expense of both the Conservatives and the left-leaning NDP. The Conservatives would likely have to overtake the Liberals by several percentage points to win enough seats to form a government, based on the past two elections in 2019 and 2021. More Canadians voted for Conservatives than any other party in those races, but the Liberals came away with the most seats, owing to their success in winning tight races. The last polls close on Canada's west coast at 10pm ET with preliminary results expected shortly after. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion

25/04/28

Little impact on Iran urea exports from port explosion

London, 28 April (Argus) — Iran's urea exports are likely to be little affected by the explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port on 26 April, with impacts limited to cargoes in container. Most of Iran's urea exports are in bulk, so the impact to exports should be a curtailment of 50,000-150,000t in May. Loading and discharging activities of bulk cargoes have resumed today at Bandar Abbas. It is not clear how long it will take for full operations at the port to resume, but some local market participants expect this by the end of May. Producers Shiraz and Khorasan are the main exporters from Bandar Abbas port, while Lordegan, Kermanshah, MIS and Razi mainly export from Bandar Imam Khomeini. Pardis exports urea mainly from Assaluye. Both Bandar Iman Khomeini and Assaluye ports are currently operating normally. The explosion , which occurred in the sulphur storage area of the port, has led to force majeure being declared on exports from the port. By Dana Hjeij Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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