Chinese oil demand growth outweighs OECD weakness: Opec

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
14/03/23

Opec has increased its 2023 oil demand growth forecast for China, outweighing a far weaker growth outlook in the OECD.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec says its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3mn b/d, with OECD Americas and OECD Europe both revised slightly lower, but Chinese growth revised higher, with jet/kerosene and gasoline leading demand growth.

OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.2mn b/d on the year to 46.23mn b/d, after a 0.35mn b/d forecast made in the previous MOMR. Demand in the non-OECD world is forecast to increase by 2.1mn b/d to 55.67mn b/d. China leads the way, jumping by 0.71mn b/d to 15.56mn b/d. The rise was forecast at 0.59mn b/d in the previous MOMR, and the higher revision comes after a rebound of 0.8mn b/d in January — from 0.2mn b/d in December — as the country abandoned its zero-Covid strategy and transport, economic and social activities could return to normal.

Oil demand dropped by 0.5mn b/d on the year in December in OECD Europe, a fourth consecutive monthly annual fall, Opec said, weakened by macroeconomic effects and "geopolitical developments", meaning the war in Ukraine and resultant sanctions. Diesel demand has been weak for seven months in Europe because of the faltering economic situation, and Opec expects European oil demand to show no growth this year, a revision down from its expected growth of a modest 40,000 b/d made a month ago.

US oil demand growth is also expected to be modest this year, at 90,000 b/d. Demand there fell by an unexpected 1.2mn b/d on the year in December, affected by bad weather.

Non-Opec liquids supply growth is forecast at 1.4mn b/d this year, to 67.2mn b/d, unchanged from last month's MOMR, with growth driven by the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Canada and declines primarily in sanctioned Russia. Opec expects Russian output to drop by 750,000 b/d this year to 10.3mn b/d, sharply lower than the 900,000 b/d drop forecast last month after higher than expected output in the first quarter this year. Opec said there are large uncertainties over non-Opec output growth because of the impact of "ongoing geopolitical developments", and the potential for US shale.

Opec puts the call on its members crude at 29.3mn b/d this year, up by around 800,000 b/d from 2022 and down by 100,000 b/d from last month's update. Argus estimates Opec crude output was 28.88mn b/d in February.

By Gavin Attridge

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15/01/25

IEA nudges global refinery runs forecast higher

London, 15 January (Argus) — The IEA has made a marginal increase to its forecast for global refinery runs this year, driven by the "recent resilient performance" of US and European refineries. The Paris-based energy watchdog now expects global crude throughput of 83.4mn b/d in 2025, whereas its previous projection was 83.3mn b/d. At the same time, it has trimmed its estimate for 2024 runs by 20,000 b/d to 82.7mn b/d on the back of downgrades in Asian throughput. The slight upgrade to the 2025 forecast assumes that US and European refineries extend their recent resilience through the first quarter. But "even as we turn more positive on the short-term outlook, it is important to acknowledge that European refineries remain under pressure from shifting trade patterns, rising carbon costs, higher energy outlays and looming capacity closures", the IEA said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). OECD throughput is forecast to fall by 370,000 b/d to 35.7mn b/d this year "as capacity closures in the United States and Europe drag on activity levels", the agency said. But it marks an upwards revision from last month's projection for the OECD of 35.6mn b/d in 2025. The IEA sees non-OECD refinery runs rising by 1mn b/d to 47.6mn b/d this year. This is a downwards adjustment of 80,000 b/d from the last OMR, but the IEA also trimmed its estimate for 2024 non-OECD throughput by the same amount — so the growth rate is unchanged. The 2025 forecasts for India, China, Pakistan, the Philippines and Singapore have all been cut compared with last month's OMR. The IEA now expects Chinese runs to rise by 240,000 b/d to 14.8mn b/d this year. Last month's forecast had Chinese throughput increasing to 14.9mn b/d. "2025 could prove to be another challenging year for Chinese independent refineries, despite increased crude import quotas, as higher import duties squeeze profitability and recent US sanctions impact access to Russian and Iranian barrels," the agency said. The IEA has raised its 2025 forecast for Nigerian throughput by 60,000 b/d to 460,000 b/d, citing the restart of state-owned NNPC's Warri and Port Harcourt refineries and the start-up of Dangote's 150,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracking unit. But it noted that challenges remain in terms of crude supply. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

15/01/25

Tariff war is a lose-lose proposition: Canada

Calgary, 15 January (Argus) — Any retaliation by Canada to tariffs imposed by the US would be designed to apply political pressure, the country's energy minister said today in Washington, DC, but a potential tariff war between the two countries is a lose-lose proposition. "We are not interested in something that escalates," Canada's minister of energy and natural resources Jonathan Wilkinson said in a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson Center. But until tariffs are imposed, Canada does not know how it will need to respond. Canada will likely focus on goods that are "important to American producers," but also those for which Canada has an alternative. "The point in the response is to apply political pressure," said Wilkinson, who advocated for stronger trade ties between the two countries byway of energy and critical minerals. US president-elect Donald Trump plans to impose a 25pc tariff on all imports from both Canada and Mexico when he takes office on 20 January. So far he has not signaled any plans to exempt any goods, including oil and gas. Alberta's premier Danielle Smith and now Wilkinson are promoting the flow of more crude to ensure North America's energy security. "We can enhance the flow of Canadian crude oil from Alberta," said Wilkinson by boosting capacity on pipelines like Enbridge's 3.1mn b/d Mainline crude export system. "The US cannot be energy dominant without Canadian energy." The incoming administration would be open to such pipeline expansions, said Heather Reams, president of Washington-based non-profit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. "It's something that the Trump administration and Republican members in Congress would be interested in revisiting to ensure that there is a steady flow of the energy that's needed to fuel our mutual economies," Reams said on the panel. Enbridge's Mainline moves Canadian crude from Alberta to the US Midcontinent, where Wilkinson expects consumers will be faced with higher gasoline prices — adding as much as 75¢/USG at the pump — should tariffs be imposed. Americans could also see higher food prices if tariffs are put on potash, a fertilizer mined in Saskatchewan and used by US farmers, she said. Development of critical minerals like germanium, gallium and others should be pursued further to minimize the US' exposure and dependence on China, according to Wilkinson, echoing comments made by Ontario premier Doug Ford on 13 January in his own appeal to enhancing trade ties with the US. "We cannot be in a position where China can simply manipulate the market," said Wilkinson, citing that country's dumping of nickel. "We should form a true energy and minerals alliance." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

15/01/25

Q&A: Waste-based biofuel to benefit Dutch bunkering

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Opec sees 1.4mn b/d oil demand growth in 2026

15/01/25

Opec sees 1.4mn b/d oil demand growth in 2026

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Inpex wins Norwegian offshore exploration licences

15/01/25

Inpex wins Norwegian offshore exploration licences

Tokyo, 15 January (Argus) — Japanese upstream firm Inpex has won eight oil and gas exploration permits offshore Norway, expanding its operations in the country, Inpex said today. Inpex was awarded exploration licences PL1263, PL318D, PL1264, PL1257, and PL636D located between the northern North Sea and the southern Norwegian Sea, along with PL 1276, PL1274 and PL1194C in the northern Norwegian Sea through its local subsidiary Inpex Idemitsu Norge (IIN). The successful bid was part of the awards in the pre-defined areas (APA) 2024 licensing round . IIN secured five licenses in the 2023 APA round . The APA rounds are held every year and focus on mature areas of the Norwegian continental shelf. The aim is to facilitate the discovery and production of remaining oil and gas resources in these areas before existing infrastructure is shut down. In the latest round, 33 of the licences are in the North Sea, 19 in the Norwegian Sea and one in the Barents Sea. The latest licences will contribute to expanding its Norwegian business portfolio, Inpex said, given the potential of jointly developing the new assets with existing assets in the surrounding area. The company has continued stable production at the Snorre and Fram oil fields in the northern North Sea. The Japanese firm aims to strengthen its upstream business as part of its long-term strategy, while it invests in renewable energy such as green ammonia. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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