Chinese oil demand growth outweighs OECD weakness: Opec

: Crude oil, Oil products
23/03/14

Opec has increased its 2023 oil demand growth forecast for China, outweighing a far weaker growth outlook in the OECD.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec says its 2023 world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3mn b/d, with OECD Americas and OECD Europe both revised slightly lower, but Chinese growth revised higher, with jet/kerosene and gasoline leading demand growth.

OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.2mn b/d on the year to 46.23mn b/d, after a 0.35mn b/d forecast made in the previous MOMR. Demand in the non-OECD world is forecast to increase by 2.1mn b/d to 55.67mn b/d. China leads the way, jumping by 0.71mn b/d to 15.56mn b/d. The rise was forecast at 0.59mn b/d in the previous MOMR, and the higher revision comes after a rebound of 0.8mn b/d in January — from 0.2mn b/d in December — as the country abandoned its zero-Covid strategy and transport, economic and social activities could return to normal.

Oil demand dropped by 0.5mn b/d on the year in December in OECD Europe, a fourth consecutive monthly annual fall, Opec said, weakened by macroeconomic effects and "geopolitical developments", meaning the war in Ukraine and resultant sanctions. Diesel demand has been weak for seven months in Europe because of the faltering economic situation, and Opec expects European oil demand to show no growth this year, a revision down from its expected growth of a modest 40,000 b/d made a month ago.

US oil demand growth is also expected to be modest this year, at 90,000 b/d. Demand there fell by an unexpected 1.2mn b/d on the year in December, affected by bad weather.

Non-Opec liquids supply growth is forecast at 1.4mn b/d this year, to 67.2mn b/d, unchanged from last month's MOMR, with growth driven by the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Canada and declines primarily in sanctioned Russia. Opec expects Russian output to drop by 750,000 b/d this year to 10.3mn b/d, sharply lower than the 900,000 b/d drop forecast last month after higher than expected output in the first quarter this year. Opec said there are large uncertainties over non-Opec output growth because of the impact of "ongoing geopolitical developments", and the potential for US shale.

Opec puts the call on its members crude at 29.3mn b/d this year, up by around 800,000 b/d from 2022 and down by 100,000 b/d from last month's update. Argus estimates Opec crude output was 28.88mn b/d in February.

By Gavin Attridge

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24/11/05

US attorneys cast light on Venezuela oil trade

Washington, 5 November (Argus) — The next US president will have to decide how to continue to apply economic penalties against oil-producing countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela — but the sanctions regime is hardly a barrier for some determined sellers and buyers. A US federal indictment, unveiled on Monday, accused Turkish national Taskin Torlak of trading Venezuelan oil in 2020-23 despite US sanctions against Caracas. Torlak allegedly relied on individuals and companies operating in Ukraine, China, Turkey, Russia and other countries to access US banks, insurers and freight companies to transport Venezuelan oil to China. US sanctions cut off Venezuela from the US financial system under the threat of economic and criminal penalties. Torlak's methods included re-naming and re-flagging oil tankers, covering tanker names with paint or blankets, and turning off the AIS transponders and obtaining fake bills of lading, according to the US criminal indictment. Venezuela state-owned PdV allegedly paid tens of millions of dollars to Torlak to facilitate shipment of oil. But the US indictment also cites frequent complaints from Torlak about PdV's arrears for such services. "We would like to emphasize our satisfaction in operating our fleet under the commercial interest serving the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and [PdV] for nearly 2.5 years, with strong technical management and continuous validation from charterers", an associate of Torlak wrote to PdV in July 2023 to complain that the Venezuelan company was late in making a $32.5mn payment. President Joe Biden's administration lifted sanctions against PdV in October 2023, only to reimpose them six months later as Caracas reneged on its promise to hold a free and fair presidential election. The US backs the Venezuelan opposition's claim that its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez defeated incumbent president Nicolas Maduro in July. But Washington has backed away from adding more sanctions against Venezuela. Most Venezuelan crude heads to China, where many independent refiners rely on networks such as Torlak's alleged organization to access discounted crude from countries under US sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows

24/11/05

Phillips 66 Calif shutdown to shift tanker flows

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Port of Vancouver grinds to halt as picket lines form

24/11/05

Port of Vancouver grinds to halt as picket lines form

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EU contributed $31.2bn public climate finance in 2024

24/11/05

EU contributed $31.2bn public climate finance in 2024

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Voting set to conclude in race for White House

24/11/05

Voting set to conclude in race for White House

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