Consensus grows for green gas policy in Germany

Spanish Market: Hydrogen, Natural gas
28/10/24

Germany's two main political parties are beginning to back a national green gas sales quota, increasing the likelihood of its development after the 2025 general election.

The German government is yet to put forward a green gas quota proposal, unlike several European neighbours such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria. Economy and climate ministry BMWK — led by the Greens — has opted for more active industrial policy to ensure the ramp-up of hydrogen production, rather than a broader green gas policy that would let market prices have more decisive influence over whether hydrogen or alternative green gases prevail.

But politicians from the centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU are increasingly referring to a green gas quota as an attractive policy option. The SPD is in government but not in charge of BMWK, while the centre-right CDU is leading the polls for the general election.

SPD politicians Bengt Bergt and Andreas Rimkus last year put forward the most concrete proposal yet for such a policy, and it has since found some resonance among politicians and industry. Bergt, the SPD's energy spokesperson, told Argus that he had heard "from a well-placed and high-up source in BMWK that there was ongoing work on a quota solution". BMWK declined to comment on this.

CDU politicians too have repeatedly voiced interest for some form of green gas quota. A green gas quota is one option for creating a "lead market" to ensure the most cost efficient delivery of the energy transition, the CDU's deputy head Jens Spahn said in an energy policy paper seen by Argus. The green gas quota is "clearly in the CDU's programme" as a solution, the SPD's Bergt told Argus.

With the CDU, SPD and the green-led ministry working towards the plans, Berg said he is looking "quite positively into the future even if it does not come to fruition within this legislative period".

The proposal itself

Bergt proposes to mandate any supplier of gas to end consumers to evidence a certain proportion of carbon-free or low-carbon gas in its portfolio. This is different to the green gas blending model proposed in other countries.

The required proportion of green gas would rise slowly at first to allow for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy, and takes into account expectations of falling demand later in the next decade, Bergt told delegates at the Handelsblatt Jahrestagung Gas in Berlin earlier this month (see graph).

The policy foresees that only renewable gases can be used in German gas grids from 2045. Any low-carbon gases could also be used to fulfil this quota, as long as the CO2 savings are equivalent to what they would be if the quota were fulfilled completely with climate-neutral gases. Gases that have lower CO2 emissions per kWh than methane derived from fossil fuels could be used to fulfil the quota for a certain period, including blue hydrogen. But when the CO2-savings targets are high enough, only carbon-neutral renewable gases such as hydrogen or biomethane could be used to meet the quota. In case of non-compliance, utilities would be penalised according to the amount of surplus CO2 emitted compared with the legal pathway, at a minimum cost of €1,200/t CO2.

This policy approach would allow Germany to meet its climate goals, ensure security of supply and low energy prices, all while avoiding carbon lock-in effects, at no extra cost to the German state, Bergt said.

Gas industry welcomes planning security

Several gas industry members agreed with the basic points of the proposal, welcoming the long-term security it could provide for planning horizons.

The proposal would answer the hydrogen industry's calls for a policy that supports demand in Germany, panellists at the conference said. But the policy would at the same time allow for price-driven competition between hydrogen and biogas, ensuring the lowest societal cost for decarbonisation, panellists said.

Panellists warned against overcomplicating the policy, in light of the general bureaucratic burden.

Swiss trading firm MET chief strategy and business development officer Joerg Selbach-Roentgen told Argus in February that the firm was in favour of a green gas blending obligation as it provided a more reliable regulatory framework.

A green gas quota is a "valuable instrument to reach the market ramp-up for new gases of all kinds", gas and hydrogen association Zukunft Gas executive director Timm Kehler said at a parliamentary committee hearing late last month. Zukunft Gas praised Bergt's proposal in a position paper in March but asked for further freedoms in compliance, whether through trading of quotas or taking into account uncertain weather-dependent aspects of demand each year.

By Till Stehr

Percentage of green gas in suppliers' portfolio by year %

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21/11/24

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

21/11/24

Investment funds’ net long on Ice TTF reaches new high

London, 21 November (Argus) — Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August. The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August , revised data show. After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October . TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November ( see graph ). But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc ( see table ). Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025 , with smaller increases further down the curve. Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November , prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility. But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November . Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes. Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month . Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023. Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September. Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose. A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase. The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined. By Brendan A'Hearn Argus TTF prices 8-15 Nov €/MWh Dec-24 1Q25 Sum 25 Win 25 Cal 25 8-Nov 42.08 42.31 40.81 38.41 40.65 15-Nov 46.02 46.12 44.12 41.00 43.98 % change 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.7 8.2 Argus Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, climate think-tank E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU countries urged to align green H2 rules for refining

20/11/24

EU countries urged to align green H2 rules for refining

Brussels, 20 November (Argus) — EU member states must harmonise the incentives they offer refineries to switch to renewable hydrogen in order to simplify investment decisions and ensure a level playing field, delegates heard at the European Hydrogen Week event in Brussels. Frontrunner countries have diverged. Germany has proposed simpler and more lucrative incentives for its fuel producers compared with the neighbouring Netherlands, while Belgium has drafted its plans but is yet to cement them until its new government settles, industry participants said at the event. To stimulate demand, these governments are working on versions of a scheme sometimes called "the refinery route" which allows transport fuel producers to generate tradeable credits if they substitute renewable hydrogen into their processes. But implementation of the scheme has been put in the hands of each EU member, which has yielded different designs even between neighbours. Industry groups from Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands argued this week that aligning their hydrogen policies would have an outsized impact and could set a direction for others. The trio account for 30pc of Europe's industry and 40pc of its hydrogen consumption, according to Dutch industry group NLHydrogen's chairman Marcel Galjee. "If we can't find agreement even in these three countries, then it becomes impossible at the European level, so let's take these countries as a start and build from there," Galjee said. Having uniform rules would simplify the calculation of the value of the incentives which is "the only way to drive investment", according to Galjee. "If we would align Germany, Belgium [and] the Netherlands, it would be much easier to determine the value of a refinery route in your business case. That is currently very difficult and it's preventing progress," he said. The Netherlands' recent proposal to deploy a correction factor to curb the value of its credits angered some refiners and industry groups . The Dutch approach to deploy a correction factor to drive more renewable hydrogen use in refineries was good thinking but bad execution, according to Galjee. The Netherlands would be better copying Germany's policies without a correction factor and then increasing the size of the Dutch quota for renewable hydrogen use in transport as a simpler way to get the demand stimulus it wants, he argued. Boosting demand was not the only intention of the correction factor, however, as the Netherlands also wanted to stop the refinery route undermining direct use of hydrogen and derivatives in vehicles. Fully copying Germany may not be a "realistic option in the Dutch environment today", and while Galjee hopes the Netherlands can move closer to Germany's refinery route system, the top priority must be that some form of the Dutch refinery route starts on time in January 2026, he said. Belgian industry also wants its government to replicate the system devised by Germany, according to Belgium Hydrogen Council chair and Port of Antwerp-Bruges chief operations officer Tom Hautekiet. "Don't try to be smart, just copy and don't change anything from the German system. I want it exactly the same, with the same multipliers, the same objectives," he said. Belgium will likely confirm its plans publicly in a matter of months, and Hautekiet is hoping the government will hear the message from industry. There could even more divergence across the rest of the bloc. Industry participants said they have found it impossible to track every country. France has also proposed a version of the refinery route, but it differs from Germany in certain other areas of hydrogen policy, which has meant the other three have found it easier to present cohesive views as a trio. The issue of fragmentation may deepen in coming months as EU member states start to transpose into national law EU mandates relating to hydrogen in industry ahead of the May 2025 deadline. This will mean even more autonomy and room for divergence. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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