Consensus grows for green gas policy in Germany

: Hydrogen, Natural gas
24/10/28

Germany's two main political parties are beginning to back a national green gas sales quota, increasing the likelihood of its development after the 2025 general election.

The German government is yet to put forward a green gas quota proposal, unlike several European neighbours such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria. Economy and climate ministry BMWK — led by the Greens — has opted for more active industrial policy to ensure the ramp-up of hydrogen production, rather than a broader green gas policy that would let market prices have more decisive influence over whether hydrogen or alternative green gases prevail.

But politicians from the centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU are increasingly referring to a green gas quota as an attractive policy option. The SPD is in government but not in charge of BMWK, while the centre-right CDU is leading the polls for the general election.

SPD politicians Bengt Bergt and Andreas Rimkus last year put forward the most concrete proposal yet for such a policy, and it has since found some resonance among politicians and industry. Bergt, the SPD's energy spokesperson, told Argus that he had heard "from a well-placed and high-up source in BMWK that there was ongoing work on a quota solution". BMWK declined to comment on this.

CDU politicians too have repeatedly voiced interest for some form of green gas quota. A green gas quota is one option for creating a "lead market" to ensure the most cost efficient delivery of the energy transition, the CDU's deputy head Jens Spahn said in an energy policy paper seen by Argus. The green gas quota is "clearly in the CDU's programme" as a solution, the SPD's Bergt told Argus.

With the CDU, SPD and the green-led ministry working towards the plans, Berg said he is looking "quite positively into the future even if it does not come to fruition within this legislative period".

The proposal itself

Bergt proposes to mandate any supplier of gas to end consumers to evidence a certain proportion of carbon-free or low-carbon gas in its portfolio. This is different to the green gas blending model proposed in other countries.

The required proportion of green gas would rise slowly at first to allow for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy, and takes into account expectations of falling demand later in the next decade, Bergt told delegates at the Handelsblatt Jahrestagung Gas in Berlin earlier this month (see graph).

The policy foresees that only renewable gases can be used in German gas grids from 2045. Any low-carbon gases could also be used to fulfil this quota, as long as the CO2 savings are equivalent to what they would be if the quota were fulfilled completely with climate-neutral gases. Gases that have lower CO2 emissions per kWh than methane derived from fossil fuels could be used to fulfil the quota for a certain period, including blue hydrogen. But when the CO2-savings targets are high enough, only carbon-neutral renewable gases such as hydrogen or biomethane could be used to meet the quota. In case of non-compliance, utilities would be penalised according to the amount of surplus CO2 emitted compared with the legal pathway, at a minimum cost of €1,200/t CO2.

This policy approach would allow Germany to meet its climate goals, ensure security of supply and low energy prices, all while avoiding carbon lock-in effects, at no extra cost to the German state, Bergt said.

Gas industry welcomes planning security

Several gas industry members agreed with the basic points of the proposal, welcoming the long-term security it could provide for planning horizons.

The proposal would answer the hydrogen industry's calls for a policy that supports demand in Germany, panellists at the conference said. But the policy would at the same time allow for price-driven competition between hydrogen and biogas, ensuring the lowest societal cost for decarbonisation, panellists said.

Panellists warned against overcomplicating the policy, in light of the general bureaucratic burden.

Swiss trading firm MET chief strategy and business development officer Joerg Selbach-Roentgen told Argus in February that the firm was in favour of a green gas blending obligation as it provided a more reliable regulatory framework.

A green gas quota is a "valuable instrument to reach the market ramp-up for new gases of all kinds", gas and hydrogen association Zukunft Gas executive director Timm Kehler said at a parliamentary committee hearing late last month. Zukunft Gas praised Bergt's proposal in a position paper in March but asked for further freedoms in compliance, whether through trading of quotas or taking into account uncertain weather-dependent aspects of demand each year.

By Till Stehr

Percentage of green gas in suppliers' portfolio by year %

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25/04/10

US absence unlikely to derail IMO talks

London, 10 April (Argus) — The US delegation's absence from the 83rd International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting is unlikely to derail the outcome of discussions on a greenhouse gas (GHG) economic pricing mechanism, market participants told Argus . This comes after the US sent a statement to foreign embassies of countries partaking in the IMO GHG economic pricing mechanism talks, confirming the US' absence from the negotiations. The statement says: "President Trump has made it clear that the US will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the US or the interests of the American people," according to a document seen by Argus . It adds: "Should such a blatantly unfair measure go forward, our government will consider reciprocal measures so as to offset any fees charged to US ships and compensate the American people for any other economic harm from any adopted GHG emissions measures". The statement ends: "The US will engage with partners on energy and investment issues of common interest. We stand ready to work with you to advance our shared commitment to energy security and economic growth". "The US will not be engaging in negotiations at the IMO's 83rd Marine Environment Protection Committee. Consistent with President Trump's executive orders on international environmental agreements and on energy dominance, it is the administration's policy to put the interests of the US and the American people first in the development and negotiation of any international agreements", the US State Department told Argus . IMO member countries are voting this week on the economic pricing mechanism for marine GHG emissions, for which the structure is expected to be agreed by 11 April, according to IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez. Even if the US does not engage in the GHG talks, it cannot unilaterally block decisions at the IMO, a spokesperson told Argus . Many of the GHG measures remain under discussion, with final approvals from the working group expected by 11 April. "The US doesn't have a huge share of the global ocean-going fleet, so their absence or opposition probably won't change the broader [IMO members] consensus", a Chile-based ship owner told Argus . US imposing "reciprocal" costs on foreign ships calling at US ports will almost certainly get passed on to [US] consumers, which could lead to higher prices for goods in the US, the owner said. If the measures are ratified by IMO member nations, US-flagged ships will probably not adhere to IMO's regulations when they call into ports of member countries, a Singapore-based shipbroker said. "We are not expecting any impacting on Asia-Pacific region yet, and it's subject to what is agreed at the MEPC and how levies are calculated," the shipbroker added. Despite not having veto power, the US remains the largest financial contributor to the UN, a Greece-based shipowner told Argus . If international shipbuilding credit lines begin to tighten under US influence, other countries may align with Washington's stance, it added. The IMO has 176 member countries. Greece, China and Japan account for the largest shares of the global ocean-going fleet. During the ongoing session, member states have approved interim guidance on the carriage of biofuel blends. The guidance allows conventional bunker ships certified for carriage of oil fuels under Marpol Annex I to transport blends of not more than 30pc by volume of biofuel , as long as all residues or tank washings are discharged ashore, unless the oil discharge monitoring equipment is approved for the biofuel blends being shipped. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Madeleine Jenkins, Stefka Wechsler, Mahua Mitra, Natália Coelho, and Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

25/04/10

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

London, 10 April (Argus) — Norway's government has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of a minimum 70-75pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, but has also committed to the country remaining "a stable and predictable supplier of oil and gas produced with low emissions". The government today set out plans for a 2035 GHG reduction target, as well as a wider climate plan for the country. The 2035 GHG reduction targets build on Norway's 2030 goal of "at least" a 55pc reduction in GHGs, again from 1990 levels. Norway has a legislated goal of "a low-emission society" by 2050 — GHG reductions of 90-95pc from the 1990 baseline. Norway's government underlined its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals and phasing out the use of fossil fuels "towards 2050", but also said that it would "not prepare a strategy for the end phase of Norwegian oil and gas". "The government's plan is about phasing out emissions, not industries", it said, noting that Norway is "a significant contributor to Europe's energy security". Norway is the largest producer and only net exporter of oil and gas in Europe. "The government will further develop the petroleum industry and facilitate the future provision of fields… production will continue to be efficient and with low emissions," the government said. It aims for the country's oil and gas sector — the country's highest-emitting industry — to bring emissions from production to net zero in 2050. The bulk of oil and gas emissions are from downstream use — known as scope 3. Norway plans to achieve the majority of its proposed 70-75pc GHG cuts through national measures, including reduced fossil fuel use and both technical and nature-based carbon removals. It also plans to purchase emissions reductions from outside the EU and European Economic Area. This refers to internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) — emission credits — under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement. Norway's parliament will consider the proposals. Once legislated in the country's climate act, Norway plans to communicate its updated plans to the UN. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to submit updated climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — to UN climate body the UNFCCC every five years. The deadline for NDCs setting out climate goals up to 2035 was in February, but many countries have yet to submit plans . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

25/04/09

Trump coal plant bailout renews first term fight

Washington, 9 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's effort to stop the retirement of coal-fired power plants is reminiscent of a 2017 attempt that faltered in the face of widespread industry opposition. Trump, in an executive order signed on Tuesday, directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to tap into emergency powers to stop the retirement of coal-fired plants and other large plants it believes are critical to grid reliability. The order sets a 30-day deadline for DOE to decide which plants are critical based on a new methodology that will analyze if reserve margins, or the percent of unused capacity at peak demand, are at an "acceptable" level. The initiative shares similarities to Trump's unsuccessful effort in his first term to bail out coal and nuclear plants. In the 2017 effort, Trump backed a "grid resiliency" proposal to compensate power plants with 90 days of on-site fuel. But an unusual coalition of natural gas industry groups, manufacturers, renewable producers and environmentalists united against the idea, warning it would upend power markets and cost consumers billions of dollars each year. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 5-0 to reject the proposal. It remains unclear if a similarly sized coalition will emerge to fight Trump's latest proposal, under which DOE would use emergency powers in section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to keep some coal plants and other large power plants operating. Industry groups have largely been avoiding taking positions that could be seen as critical of Trump. Environmentalists say they strongly oppose keeping coal plants operating using emergency powers. Doing so would mean more air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, they say, and higher costs for consumers. Environmental groups say they are hoping other industries affected by the potential bailout will eventually speak out against the initiative. "The silence from those who know better is deafening," Center for Biological Diversity climate law institute legal director Jason Rylander said. "I hope that we will start to see more resistance to these dangerous policies before significant damage is done." DOE said it was "already hard at work" to implement Trump's executive order, which was paired with other orders that were meant to support coal mining and coal production. US energy secretary Chris Wright said today that reviving coal will increase the reliability of the electrical grid and bring down electricity costs, but he has not shared further details on the 202(c) initiative. Trying to litigate the program could be "tricky", and section 202(c) orders have never successfully been challenged in court, in part because they are usually short-term orders, Harvard Law School Electricity Law Initiative director Ari Peskoe said. But opponents could challenge them by focusing on "numerous legal problems", he said, such as not allowing public comment or running afoul of a US Supreme Court precedent that prohibits agencies from attempting to decide "major questions" without clear congressional authorization. "Here DOE would use a little-used statute explicitly written for short-term emergencies in order to PREVENT a change in the US energy mix," Peskoe said. A projected 8.1GW of coal-fired generation is set to retire this year, equivalent to nearly 5pc of the coal fleet, the US Energy Information Administration said last month. Electric utilities often decide which plants to retire years in advance, allowing them to defer maintenance and to forgo capital investments in aging facilities. Keeping coal plants running could require exemptions from environmental rules or pricey capital investments, the costs of which would likely be distributed among other ratepayers. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?

25/04/09

What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?

Some countries are considering retaliatory tariffs, while others hope to reduce their trade deficit in order to negotiate lower rates London, 9 April (Argus) — Newly announced US tariffs on goods entering the country and some of the countermeasures already announced by large trade partners are unlikely to cause any direct disruptions to global gas markets. But the indirect effects on gas supply and demand may be huge, stemming from a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fuel substitution and inflationary pressures on infrastructure development. US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed a minimum 10pc tax on all foreign imports from 5 April,with much higher tariffs on selected countries that briefly came into force on 9 April, before Trump announced a 90-day pause. China is the only exception. It has announced retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt US energy exports, resulting in an escalation that has already brought up the respective levies to 125pc in the US and 84pc in China. These are unlikely to have any direct impact on LNG trade flows, as China had already stopped importing US LNG earlier this year. But disruptions to trade between the world's two largest economies may weigh heavily on manufacturing activity in China, in turn reducing industrial gas demand. And the ripple effects of disruptions to US LPG exports to China may alter fuel-switching economics in the region and beyond. Most other countries in Asia-Pacific have opted not to follow China's lead by retaliating against US tariffs, even though many have warned about the potential for long-term economic disruption. The Japanese government intends to negotiate a better tariff deal and is considering investing in the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project as part of wider efforts to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Countries in Asia-Pacific have been hit with some of the highest of Trump's targeted duties. The EU is keeping retaliatory measures on the table, but these are unlikely to include any levy on US LNG. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of its Russian pipeline supply, and imposing tariffs on energy imports would only reignite inflationary pressures that European countries have tried to curb over the past three years. The bloc says it is ready to negotiate on possibly increasing its US LNG imports to reduce its trade surplus and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agrees to do the same. But Trump says this offer is not enough, citing the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justifies a tariff response. Nerves of steel Much greater risks for gas markets may stem from rising infrastructure costs in the US' upstream and midstream sectors, particularly as a result of earlier tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports. These present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions this year. Metals account for up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. An LNG terminal can cost $5bn-25bn to build, depending on its size, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. US facilities can be built using some domestic metal, but higher prices for this may lead to construction and final investment decision delays for the country's planned liquefaction projects. US tariffs' primary effect on the domestic gas market stems from duties levied on non-energy goods used by the oil and gas industry, including steel and specialised pipeline components such as valves and compressors, which are imported from overseas. The US remains a net natural gas importer from Canada , but these flows are unlikely to be affected by trade tariffs given the lack of alternative supply sources available to some northern US states. US LNG project pipeline mn t/yr Project Capacity Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German coalition negotiations come to an end

25/04/09

German coalition negotiations come to an end

London, 9 April (Argus) — Germany's centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU parties announced a final coalition agreement today, which includes some changes to energy policy. The parties still need to sign off on the agreement. The SPD will ask its members to vote on the text, which it expects could take about 10 days. And the CDU plans to hold a small party conference on the topic at the end of this month, meaning that the new government could be sworn in by early May. The coalition still plans to abolish the gas storage levy "for all" as part of its plan to lower energy prices for households and industry. And the parties plan to introduce "suitable instruments" to ensure gas storage filling to safeguard security of supply in a "more cost-effective" way. There is a large focus on lowering energy prices for industry in the hope of turning the tide on Germany's continued industrial slump, for example through lower electricity taxes, a cap on power grid fees and special relief for energy-intensive industries "otherwise not reached by subsidy plans". The government plans to "make possible and flank diversified, cheap long-term gas contracts with international suppliers" and "use potentials of conventional domestic gas production". And while the government is "examining strategic state holdings in the energy sector, also with grid operators", it will reduce its shares in Uniper and SEFE — which it had acquired in the gas crisis in 2022 — to "strategic shares". The state needs to sell down its stake in the two companies by 2028 but will probably retain a minority share, with the EU allowing a maximum 25pc plus one share, energy ministry officials previously said . Support for gas-fired power The parties reiterated their commitment to encourage the buildout of up to 20GW of dispatchable power generation capacity, with no apparent requirement for the plants to be hydrogen-ready. The parties plan to put forward a bill to allow carbon capture and storage for hard-to-abate emissions from industry as well as gas-fired power plants "immediately after the beginning of the new parliament". The coalition said that the timing of the coal phase-out "has to be judged on how quickly it is achieved to build out dispatchable gas-fired capacities", but it still commits to ending coal burn by 2038. The government reiterated its plan to use grid reserve capacity to stabilise power prices rather than only to stabilise the grid during supply shortages. Associations have warned about the implications of letting grid reserve plants participate in the open market on investment incentives for new generation capacity. It also remains unclear how long it would take to get Brussels' approval for a new subsidy scheme for dispatchable power generation capacity, given that the EU approved the outgoing government's power plant strategy only after lengthy negotiations. Heating sector plan thin on detail The future of Germany's heating law remains unclear in the coalition agreement. The coalition agreement keeps the CDU's standpoint that the outgoing government's buildings energy act will be "abolished", which the SPD had not agreed with in the negotiation documents. But the parties said that a new buildings energy act will be more technology neutral and flexible, indicating that there will still be some legislation to reduce carbon intensity of the built environment. The parties propose a "reachable greenhouse gas avoidance" as the key variable of a new policy, instead of the percentage of renewable energy used in the system as under the existing law. This could end up supporting gas-fired over oil-based heating or providing an incentive to replace older gas boilers with newer models. But the government plans to retain subsidies for new heating systems and insulation measures, which provide large incentives for the uptake of heat pumps. Heat pump industry association BWP welcomed this commitment, combined with a pledge to reduce power prices by about €0.05/kWh, saying that these are "clear signals of an improvement in the framework conditions for the industry". The final coalition agreement again contains a reference to a possible green gas quota , which could support gas-based heating systems, for example through biomethane or hydrogen which could be used to fulfil the quota. The parties said today that they would work out a "roadmap for de-fossilised energy sources" and that it is important to "preserve gas grids which are important for a secure heat supply". By Till Stehr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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