Consensus grows for green gas policy in Germany

Market: Hydrogen, Natural gas
28/10/24

Germany's two main political parties are beginning to back a national green gas sales quota, increasing the likelihood of its development after the 2025 general election.

The German government is yet to put forward a green gas quota proposal, unlike several European neighbours such as Denmark, the Netherlands and Austria. Economy and climate ministry BMWK — led by the Greens — has opted for more active industrial policy to ensure the ramp-up of hydrogen production, rather than a broader green gas policy that would let market prices have more decisive influence over whether hydrogen or alternative green gases prevail.

But politicians from the centre-left SPD and centre-right CDU are increasingly referring to a green gas quota as an attractive policy option. The SPD is in government but not in charge of BMWK, while the centre-right CDU is leading the polls for the general election.

SPD politicians Bengt Bergt and Andreas Rimkus last year put forward the most concrete proposal yet for such a policy, and it has since found some resonance among politicians and industry. Bergt, the SPD's energy spokesperson, told Argus that he had heard "from a well-placed and high-up source in BMWK that there was ongoing work on a quota solution". BMWK declined to comment on this.

CDU politicians too have repeatedly voiced interest for some form of green gas quota. A green gas quota is one option for creating a "lead market" to ensure the most cost efficient delivery of the energy transition, the CDU's deputy head Jens Spahn said in an energy policy paper seen by Argus. The green gas quota is "clearly in the CDU's programme" as a solution, the SPD's Bergt told Argus.

With the CDU, SPD and the green-led ministry working towards the plans, Berg said he is looking "quite positively into the future even if it does not come to fruition within this legislative period".

The proposal itself

Bergt proposes to mandate any supplier of gas to end consumers to evidence a certain proportion of carbon-free or low-carbon gas in its portfolio. This is different to the green gas blending model proposed in other countries.

The required proportion of green gas would rise slowly at first to allow for the ramp-up of the hydrogen economy, and takes into account expectations of falling demand later in the next decade, Bergt told delegates at the Handelsblatt Jahrestagung Gas in Berlin earlier this month (see graph).

The policy foresees that only renewable gases can be used in German gas grids from 2045. Any low-carbon gases could also be used to fulfil this quota, as long as the CO2 savings are equivalent to what they would be if the quota were fulfilled completely with climate-neutral gases. Gases that have lower CO2 emissions per kWh than methane derived from fossil fuels could be used to fulfil the quota for a certain period, including blue hydrogen. But when the CO2-savings targets are high enough, only carbon-neutral renewable gases such as hydrogen or biomethane could be used to meet the quota. In case of non-compliance, utilities would be penalised according to the amount of surplus CO2 emitted compared with the legal pathway, at a minimum cost of €1,200/t CO2.

This policy approach would allow Germany to meet its climate goals, ensure security of supply and low energy prices, all while avoiding carbon lock-in effects, at no extra cost to the German state, Bergt said.

Gas industry welcomes planning security

Several gas industry members agreed with the basic points of the proposal, welcoming the long-term security it could provide for planning horizons.

The proposal would answer the hydrogen industry's calls for a policy that supports demand in Germany, panellists at the conference said. But the policy would at the same time allow for price-driven competition between hydrogen and biogas, ensuring the lowest societal cost for decarbonisation, panellists said.

Panellists warned against overcomplicating the policy, in light of the general bureaucratic burden.

Swiss trading firm MET chief strategy and business development officer Joerg Selbach-Roentgen told Argus in February that the firm was in favour of a green gas blending obligation as it provided a more reliable regulatory framework.

A green gas quota is a "valuable instrument to reach the market ramp-up for new gases of all kinds", gas and hydrogen association Zukunft Gas executive director Timm Kehler said at a parliamentary committee hearing late last month. Zukunft Gas praised Bergt's proposal in a position paper in March but asked for further freedoms in compliance, whether through trading of quotas or taking into account uncertain weather-dependent aspects of demand each year.

By Till Stehr

Percentage of green gas in suppliers' portfolio by year %

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29/10/24

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28/10/24

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28/10/24

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28/10/24

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25/10/24

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Africa pushes domestic gas role in transition

25/10/24

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25/10/24

Africa pushes domestic gas role in transition

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Until now, the role of natural gas in sub-Saharan Africa has been limited, with an estimated share of only 15pc in the energy mix. Nigeria is the largest natural gas market in the region, with an estimated 21bn m³ consumed in 2022, of which 40pc was used for power generation. But Africa's gas demand is projected to increase rapidly, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where the IEA estimates that it will grow at 3pc/yr and could reach 187bn-246bn m³ by 2030 and up to 437bn m³ by 2050. Complement not compete "Gas as a bridging fuel is particularly important in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where energy demand is growing quickly and renewables cannot yet meet all the needs," Italian firm Eni's regional head, Mario Bello, says. As a lower-carbon base-load power generation fuel than coal or oil, proponents argue that gas can complement the growth of interruptible renewables rather than compete with it. Domestic pricing presents an immediate challenge — widespread subsidised gas retail prices currently mean that 58pc of Africa's natural gas consumed is priced below the cost of supply, according to the International Gas Union. And the rapid rise in sub-Saharan Africa's gas consumption could result in domestic demand outstripping supply in the next 10-15 years, leaving a gap that smaller gas projects could fill, with the growing help of African lenders. The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has provided financing to support Nigeria's first indigenous FLNG project, with capacity of 1.2mn t/yr to supply the local market. Policy makers in several African gas-producing countries will increasingly support these domestic-oriented schemes in the coming years. In Nigeria, Angola and Senegal, governments are already demanding that gas is used to support electrification and industry rather than for export. New natural gas markets are emerging in Ghana and South Africa, supported by the development of domestic production as well as new import infrastructure, to meet growing electricity generation needs and replace coal and oil use in the power sector. The case of South Africa, the continent's largest economy, shows the kind of challenges that will face Africa's ambitions to develop its gas sector. Gas accounts for less than 3pc of the country's energy mix, but this is growing and the Industrial Gas Users Association (IGUA) of South Africa estimates that gas demand in 2033 could more than quadruple to as high as 800 PJ/yr. South Africa's only primary supplier of gas, Sasol, supplies 185 PJ/yr, of which 160 PJ/yr is imported from Mozambique through the Rompco pipeline. But Sasol's Pande and Temane fields in Mozambique are fast depleting, and the firm has warned that by mid-2028 at the latest it may no longer be able to supply gas to South African industry. Sasol's "unilateral decision" to cut off gas supply "poses an existential risk to large industrial gas users and is likely to lead to the deindustrialisation of the South African economy", IGUA warns. Given long lead times for alternative gas supply solutions, "the governments of South Africa and Mozambique have six months to come up with a new plan and start executing it", energy advisory SLR Consulting's Steve Husbands says. Currently, Mozambique has the most advanced LNG import terminal being developed at Matola, and over the short term, South Africa will be reliant on this facility to meet its gas demand needs, according to IGUA. In the medium term, LNG import terminals are planned at Richards Bay, Coega, and Saldanha Bay. Longer term, upstream gas exploration opportunities exist offshore South Africa and especially on its side of the Orange basin. But the country's domestic ambitions suffered a major setback recently when TotalEnergies decided to quit block 11B/12B, which contains the Brulpadda and Luiperd discoveries that hold a combined estimated 3.4 trillion ft³ (96.3bn m³) of natural gas. Meanwhile, Namibia is due to become a global oil and gas supply hub over the next 10 to 15 years. "South Africa needs to understand that the bargaining position of Namibia and Mozambique is different and it's strong," Husbands says. These countries will be guided by self-interest and they will price according to alternatives, such as exporting LNG. Credit risk IGUA has also focused on facilitating gas energy demand aggregation, whereby industries collaborate to secure cost-efficient gas supply through volume aggregation, the enablement of infrastructure and the dilution of commercial risks. South Africa's industrial development depends on gas, state-owned Central Energy Fund (CEF) chief operating officer Tshepo Mokoka says. To enable this, gas-to-power projects are needed to anchor the development of a large-scale, capital-intensive gas industry, he says. The CEF is working to locate gas-to-power plants of at least 1,000MW at the ports of Richards Bay, Coega and Saldanha Bay. Gas-to-power projects need three to five years of government support to get off the ground, he says. "Without it, the critical LNG infrastructure that is required at the different ports will be sterilised," Mokoka says. For Africa more broadly, a lack of creditworthy utilities as gas offtakers, combined with small-scale and fragmented markets, makes it more difficult to aggregate demand for large developments. These challenges have led to underinvestment in gas processing facilities and transportation infrastructure, which makes developing gas reserves for domestic use a tough sell for investors across the continent. "You need feedstock as well as guaranteed offtake to ensure the economic viability of gas projects," Lekoil chief technical officer Sam Olutu says. "It is important to secure midstream offtake even before an upstream project is commissioned, as it gives you more control over pricing, so that you are not forced to flare the gas." Some governments are increasingly keen on developing industrial capacity in areas that require intensive energy use such as fertilisers or cement manufacturing that will provide enough reliable gas demand to make a project economic. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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