Maduro claims Venezuelan presidency, sanctions build

Spanish Market: Crude oil
10/01/25

Nicolas Maduro took the oath of office for a third term as Venezuela's president today in a small ceremony, prompting more condemnation from countries that reject his claim to the title.

Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel arrived in Venezuela ahead of the 45-minute ceremony, held in a side room at the national assembly. Maduro promised a "term of peace" in brief comments. Only state media was allowed to film the event, which was much smaller than his past two inaugurations.

Opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez, who has international support for his claim that he won the July presidential election, had said he would try to enter Venezuela from forced exile to claim the office.

The outgoing administration of President Joe Biden marked Maduro's inauguration by upping the bounty on him to $25mn, related to a criminal case filed by US federal prosecutors for the Venezuelan leader's alleged involved in drug trafficking.

"It is clear to the Venezuelan people, the United States and most of the world that Edmundo Gonzalez should be sworn in today as Venezuela's next president," a senior US official said.

But the Biden administration will not formally recognize Gonzalez as his country's legitimate leader — a decision that could have given him a say in managing some of Venezuela's foreign assets, including in the US.

"At this juncture, the US currently recognizes the democratically elected 2015 National Assembly as a legitimate government of Venezuela," the US official said.

The US also imposed sanctions on PdV president Hector Andres Obregon — another complication for PdV's foreign partners.

To constrain foreign revenue sources for Maduro's government, the US administration would continue to approve requests to seize Venezuelan sovereign assets in foreign countries to satisfy Caracas' debts, the US official said.

The most prominent of those cases is moving through a US federal court in Delaware, where Venezuela's creditors are close to finalizing the sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo.

But the Biden administration is not looking to revoke a license it granted in 2022, allowing Chevron to import into the US cargoes of oil produced in its joint venture with PdV — some 200,000 b/d last year.

Chevron's authorization "is a policy that we have been reviewing here at the highest levels for some time," the US official said. "One of the things that has driven our policy all along is a commitment to use strategic pressure on Maduro and his authorities when that is appropriate and will have proportionate impact."

The Biden team has held discussions with the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump on Venezuela, the official said. "Depending on the events that we see unfold in the next 10 days, we are ready to make a set of recommendations to the incoming administration with respect to the future of" licenses granted to Chevron and for some other foreign companies to operate in Venezuela.

Terms of peace

The inauguration drew other international actions.

Israel recognized Gonzalez as president of Venezuela today, describing Maduro as an "ally of Iran", adding its name to the long list of countries that do not recognize Maduro as president.

The EU also announced it was sanctioning another 15 Venezuelan nationals, including supreme court head magistrate Caryslia Rodriguez, who attended the ceremony today. There are now 70 Venezuelans, including military and civilian, present and former officials, under EU sanction.

Venezuela's response to the condemnation has been to increase military and policy control in Caracas, arrest protesters and threaten to "neutralize" any aircraft carrying Gonzalez in its airspace.

Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was also briefly held on Thursday after emerging from several months of hiding to lead an anti-Maduro rally, her allies said.

By Carlos Camacho and Haik Gugarats

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11/04/25

Opec+ overproducers cast doubt on compensation pledges

Output is set to rise in the coming months, with Kazakhstan and Iraq unlikely to live up to commitments to rein in production, writes Aydin Calik London, 11 April (Argus) — The Opec+ alliance's planned production increases in April and May should, in theory, be offset by pledges to compensate for past overproduction, particularly by Kazakhstan and Iraq. But there are few signs that either country will significantly reduce output in the coming weeks. If anything, Kazakhstan has signalled that production will continue at or near record levels of around 1.8mn b/d , putting it some 300,000 b/d above its Opec+ target. Opec+ members subject to targets cut output by 90,000 b/d to 33.93mn b/d in March, according to Argus estimates, but this was still 80,000 b/d above the group's collective crude production target of 33.85mn b/d. The decision by a core group of eight Opec+ members to accelerate the return of 2.2mn b/d of production cuts is a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US tariff announcements. But Opec+ has stressed that its implied output increase of 137,000 b/d for April and another 411,000 b/d in May should be cancelled out by compensation-related cuts of 249,000 b/d for April and 309,000 b/d in May. In reality, this is unlikely to happen — the group's output is set to rise. Kazakhstan is the main reason why Opec+ has exceeded its target over the past two months. Kazakh production has surged following a major output increase at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January — part of the field's future growth project (FGP). Tengiz production rose to a record 901,000 b/d in March, compared with previous levels of 600,000-660,000 b/d. The increase came several months earlier than anticipated, Kazakh officials say, and they have subsequently asked international oil companies that operate Tengiz and the Kashagan oil field to reduce output. But the answer has so far been negative. "Unfortunately, we have not yet agreed with them to the reduction, because for them it is a very challenging action, especially Chevron, [which] spent $50bn on the FGP project. They told us it's not possible for them to reduce [output]," deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov said this week. Kazakhstan will try to reduce production from smaller fields operated by domestic producers such as state-controlled Kazmunaigaz, Zhamauov said. But any decrease from these fields will not be enough to offset the rise from Tengiz. Target practice Iraq's output dipped below its 4mn b/d target in March at 3.98mn b/d, but this was still well above the country's effective target of 3.88mn b/d under its compensation plan. If Iraq's past production record is anything to go by, its output is unlikely to fall much further in the months ahead. While Kazakhstan and Iraq are unlikely to see much change in their production, members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are set to drive the alliance's output higher. The biggest increase is expected from Saudi Arabia, which will see its 8.98mn b/d target rise by 222,000 b/d by May, offset only marginally by its compensation plans. Riyadh has already signalled that it is preparing to increase production after state-controlled Saudi Aramco cut the official formula price of its May-loading crude exports. The largest cut was for buyers in Asia-Pacific, Saudi Arabia's biggest market. Formula prices can indicate intentions on output, as producers fine-tune how affordable their crude is for marginal refiners. The second-largest production increase is set to come from the UAE, which has long been eager to raise output . The UAE will see its target rise by 103,000 b/d by May, which will also only be offset marginally by its compensation plan. Russia is also scheduled to deliver a significant production increase over the next two months, with its target rising by 105,000 b/d. But all of this increase will be cancelled out if the country sticks to its compensation plan. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Non-Opec 9 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 Total Opec+ 18 33.93 34.02 33.85 0.08 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.98 8.93 8.98 0.00 Iraq 3.98 4.05 4.00 -0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.43 2.41 0.01 UAE 2.91 2.93 2.91 -0.00 Algeria 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.01 Nigeria 1.49 1.58 1.50 -0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.24 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.20 0.22 0.17 0.03 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.22 21.36 21.23 -0.01 Iran 3.34 3.38 na na Libya 1.36 1.39 na na Venezuela 0.87 0.84 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.79 26.97 na na *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Mar Feb* Mar target† ± target Russia 8.97 8.96 8.98 -0.01 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.47 0.47 0.55 -0.08 Kazakhstan 1.79 1.76 1.47 0.32 Malaysia 0.36 0.36 0.40 -0.04 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.07 0.07 0.12 -0.05 Total non-Opec 12.71 12.66 12.62 0.09 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey

11/04/25

US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey

Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs. The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month. Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year." "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said. The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month. The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March. The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result. Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty

10/04/25

EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty

Calgary, 10 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be nearly $7/bl lower this year than previously expected, with an ongoing trade war stifling global demand by nearly 500,000 b/d, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $63.88/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $6.80/bl from its March forecast. It will fall further to $57.48/bl in 2026, or $7.49/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices saw similar downward revisions and is now forecast at $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. The latest STEO was to be released on 8 April, but the EIA said it needed more time to rerun its models in light of last week's sweeping tariff action by US president Donald Trump and subsequent retaliation by China. The protectionist measures have led major banks to cut oil price forecasts amid growing concerns over a stagnating US economy. The EIA completed its analysis on 7 April meaning it did not incorporate the most recent developments, including Trump's 9 April pause on the highest levels of punitive tariffs against key US trading partners and an increase in Chinese tariffs . The latest forecast is "subject to significant uncertainty," said the EIA. Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is now expected to average 103.64mn b/d in 2025, lower by 490,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.68mn b/d, lower by 620,000 b/d. Global production meanwhile was lowered by to 104.1mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.35mn b/d for 2026. These are lower from the prior forecast by 70,000 b/d and 43,000 b/d, respectively. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.38mn b/d in 2025, lower by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 110,000 b/d at 20.49mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared to the March STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

10/04/25

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

London, 10 April (Argus) — Norway's government has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of a minimum 70-75pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, but has also committed to the country remaining "a stable and predictable supplier of oil and gas produced with low emissions". The government today set out plans for a 2035 GHG reduction target, as well as a wider climate plan for the country. The 2035 GHG reduction targets build on Norway's 2030 goal of "at least" a 55pc reduction in GHGs, again from 1990 levels. Norway has a legislated goal of "a low-emission society" by 2050 — GHG reductions of 90-95pc from the 1990 baseline. Norway's government underlined its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals and phasing out the use of fossil fuels "towards 2050", but also said that it would "not prepare a strategy for the end phase of Norwegian oil and gas". "The government's plan is about phasing out emissions, not industries", it said, noting that Norway is "a significant contributor to Europe's energy security". Norway is the largest producer and only net exporter of oil and gas in Europe. "The government will further develop the petroleum industry and facilitate the future provision of fields… production will continue to be efficient and with low emissions," the government said. It aims for the country's oil and gas sector — the country's highest-emitting industry — to bring emissions from production to net zero in 2050. The bulk of oil and gas emissions are from downstream use — known as scope 3. Norway plans to achieve the majority of its proposed 70-75pc GHG cuts through national measures, including reduced fossil fuel use and both technical and nature-based carbon removals. It also plans to purchase emissions reductions from outside the EU and European Economic Area. This refers to internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) — emission credits — under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement. Norway's parliament will consider the proposals. Once legislated in the country's climate act, Norway plans to communicate its updated plans to the UN. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to submit updated climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — to UN climate body the UNFCCC every five years. The deadline for NDCs setting out climate goals up to 2035 was in February, but many countries have yet to submit plans . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty

09/04/25

Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty

Sao Paulo, 9 April (Argus) — Colombian heavy sour crudes have reached their narrowest discounts to Ice Brent in at least four years, supported by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and tight supplies of similar grades. Castilla's discount to Ice Brent was $3.50/bl on Tuesday and Vasconia's was at $1.45/bl, $4.40/bl and $3.15/bl tighter than on 2 January, respectively. Castilla has not reached that narrow of a level against the benchmark since early 2021 and Vasconia has not since mid-2019. Outright prices were $60.89/bl for Vasconia and $58.84/bl for Castilla on Tuesday. Colombian crude discounts started to narrow in January after US president Donald Trump mentioned plans for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which produce competing heavy sours. Amid the uncertainty, buyers opted to secure supply that might not face tariffs, sources said, despite delays in tariffs implementation in early February and March. But a sweeping executive order last week excluded energy commodities from tariffs, as well as trade covered under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). Then on Wednesday Trump announced he will pause many of the tariffs on other products for 90 days, but no changes have been announced for energy imports . Despite Trump's tariff exemptions on crude imports to the US, tight availability of heavy supply for US Gulf refiners could still support relative values for Colombian grades. Subbing in Colombian crudes are seen as good substitutes for heavy crude from the US' nearest neighbors, especially Mexican supplies, which are widely used by US Gulf coast refiners. Additionally, Colombia's geographical location makes shipping to the US Gulf coast quicker and less costly compared with other South American countries, such as Ecuador, which also produces heavy sour crude. Further tightening heavy supply for Gulf coast refiners, the US government announced in March that the deadline for the end of Chevron's waiver to produce in Venezuela is 27 May, stopping the flow of crude to the US from its joint venture with state-owned PdV. Chevron brought about 222,000 b/d in Venezuelan crude to the US from January-November 2024. according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even with the volume representing a fraction of Gulf coast imports, it represents almost 30pc of total Colombian output. Its production reached 760,000 b/d in January, according to oil services chamber Campetrol, citing figures from hydrocarbons agency ANH. Further US tariffs on countries that take delivery of Venezuelan oil and natural gas could also make Colombian barrels more attractive, although Ecuadorean crudes are possible regional supply alternatives too. Meanwhile, Mexico's state-owned Pemex has faced quality issues with its crude production since late last year, which could lead to Gulf coast buyers turning to Colombian barrels as alternatives. Pemex acknowledged issues with salt and water levels in its crude in February but denied that international buyers have rejected shipments because of those concerns. Mexico's policy of expanding domestic refining has also contributed to a decline in crude exports to the US in recent years. Colombian crude values have also likely been supported by firmer competing Canadian crude values at the US Gulf coast. Canadian crude differentials have firmed in part because of upgrader turnaround season in Alberta's oil sands region, slowing production. The shutdown of the 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline from the region after a spill in North Dakota on 8 April also limited supply, buttressing prices. By João Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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