Canada’s tariff response will be ‘forceful’: Trudeau

Spanish Market: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas
31/01/25

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is planning an immediate retaliation should US president Donald Trump impose a 25pc tariff on imports tomorrow, 1 February.

"If the president does choose to implement any tariffs against Canada, we are ready with a response," said Trudeau at a meeting of the Council on Canada-US Relations in Toronto. "A purposeful, forceful, but reasonable, immediate response."

"It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," he said.

Trump has accused Canada and Mexico of facilitating trafficking of fentanyl and illegal migration and has threatened tariffs to persuade the two countries to tighten borders they share with the US.

"Our border is safe and secure," said Trudeau. "We're committed to keeping it that way by addressing current challenges and strengthening our capacity."

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said this week Mexico is also ready to respond to US tariffs. "We will always defend respect for our sovereignty and a dialogue as equals, but without subordination," she said.

Canada in mid-December said it would spend C$1.3bn ($900bn) on border security measures over six years, which Trudeau reiterated Friday while highlighting recent progress. The 8,891-kilometre (5,525-miles) US-Canada border is the longest in the world.

Trump has also railed against the US' trade deficit with Canada, which is on track to settle at about C$65bn in 2024, according to TD Bank. The bank notes the deficit is largely a result of America's thirst for energy and should not be confused with a "subsidy".

Canada has increased deliveries of crude to the US beyond 4mn b/d and supplied 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) of natural gas in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM).

"We won't relent until tariffs are removed, and of course, everything is on the table," Trudeau said of Canada's potential retaliation, a message that has drawn concern from the premier of oil-rich Alberta who wants the unfettered flow of energy.

All told, the two highly-integrated countries exchange about C$3.6bn of goods and services each day, only slightly less than daily US-Mexico trade, TD Bank said last week.

By Brett Holmes

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03/03/25

US needs to ‘feel the pain’ for tariffs: Ford

Calgary, 3 March (Argus) — US president Donald Trump needs to pull back on his tariffs against Canada or Ontario will stop the flow of nickel and electricity over the border, the premier of the country's most populated province said today. "If they want to annihilate Ontario, I'll do everything, including cut off their energy, with a smile on my face," said Ontario premier Doug Ford, speaking at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada's conference in Toronto. "They rely on our energy, they need to feel the pain." US president Donald Trump said on Monday the tariffs are "all set" to go into place on 4 March at 12:01am ET , a move that will likely to set off a trade war among the long-time economic allies. Under the executive orders Trump signed a month ago, the US will impose a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. "A tariff on Canada is a tax on Americans," said Ford. "They're going to get hurt, it's the wrong decision." Ford has directed his government to be ready should tariffs be implemented. The Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) will take "every bit of US alcohol off the shelves", a prospect that Ford said has senior politicians in Kentucky "losing their minds." A C$100mn deal with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services will be torn up, and Ford suggested legislation may be created to encourage consumers to buy more Canadian goods. "I'm not going to start a tariff war," said Ford. "[Trump] is going to get a rude awakening." In a broadcast interview later on Monday, Ford said he would stop the flow of nickel and electricity into the US. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau was en route from London on Monday and is expected to meet with his cabinet upon his return. "This is an existential threat to us," Canada's minister of foreign affairs Melanie Joly said Monday in Ottawa. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump says 'all set' on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

03/03/25

Trump says 'all set' on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 3 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he will proceed with plans to impose stiff tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. "The tariffs, you know, they're all set, they go into effect tomorrow," Trump told reporters at the White House this afternoon, adding that there was "no room for a deal" to avert what would be a continent-wide trade war. Under the executive orders Trump signed a month ago, the US will impose a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. The effective date for the tariffs is 12:01am ET on Tuesday. Trump clarified that he is sticking to the same rate of tariffs set out in his executive order, after his advisers over the weekend suggested he could apply a lower rate. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent pointed to a proposal by Mexico City to match the level of tariffs Trump has leveled or is planning to impose on imports from China, as a way to avoid a trade war between the US and its neighbors. "It would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also, so in a way we could have 'Fortress North America' from the flood of Chinese imports," Bessent said in a televised interview. Trump ordered a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, effective on 4 February. He is threatening to double that tax on Tuesday. The rate would be in addition to all previously imposed tariffs on imports from China. Trump's announcement came just one day after US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggested the tariffs to be imposed on Canadian and Mexican imports might not be as high as those set out in Trump's order last month. Already vast segments of the energy industry — oil and gas producers, refiners, pipeline operators, traders — have been bracing for potentially disruptive outcomes. US independent refiners, already facing weaker margins, falling demand and regulatory uncertainty in their burgeoning renewables businesses, expect that tariffs will lead to higher feedstock costs and will cause some to reduce runs, cutting further into profits. A major European energy trading company has redirected some volumes of natural gas that were scheduled to flow across the US border into Canada to reduce the company's exposure to the threat of impending tariffs. The imposition of tariffs after decades of free trade in energy across North America is expected to create legal uncertainty in contractual obligations related to the payment of tariffs and reporting requirements. The current US import duties on crude are set at 5.25¢/bl and 10.5¢/bl, depending on crude quality. The administration has said the new tariff would be based on the value of the commodity — without specifying how that will be calculated and at what specific point during the transportation process. US government agencies are not expected to clarify the implementation details until Trump's executive order on tariffs goes into effect. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ eight agree to boost output from April

03/03/25

Opec+ eight agree to boost output from April

London, 3 March (Argus) — Opec+ members have agreed to proceed with a plan to start increasing crude output starting in April. The eight Opec+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — are to go ahead with their existing plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" output cuts over an 18-month period from April. The plan also includes a 300,000 b/d increase in the UAE's production target, which will be phased in over the same 18-month period. In a statement late today, Opec said the decision took into account "healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook." If implemented fully, the plan would see the production targets of the eight members rise by an average of 137,000 b/d each month up to September 2026. But the group once again emphasised that the return of the cut production would be "gradual and flexible" and "adaptable to evolving conditions". This leaves them room to pause or reverse their unwinding "subject to market conditions". The decision comes after US president Donald Trump in January called on the alliance to "bring down the cost of oil" — something it could probably do by raising production. But the market faces an array of uncertainties, including the impact of Trump's tariff plans as well as his efforts to curtail Iran's and Venezuela's oil exports. Opec also said that members that are required to compensate for past overproduction would frontload their plans. If implemented, this would offset some of the group's rise in output from April. Opec said the group's overproducers would submit updated compensation plans by 17 March and make this publicly available. By Gavin Attridge and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela oil can flow despite sanctions U-turn

03/03/25

Venezuela oil can flow despite sanctions U-turn

Washington, 3 March (Argus) — Venezuelan crude could remain available to most current buyers in the near future even though US president Donald Trump's administration says it is closing exceptions in sanctions against Caracas. Trump on 26 February said he would not extend a sanctions waiver that allowed Chevron to lift crude cargoes from its joint venture with Venezuelan state-owned PdV. US secretary of state Marco Rubio last week separately said via social media that he would recommend terminating all "oil and gas licenses that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate regime" of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Under normal circumstances, such announcements by the US administration include detailed guidance from the Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). But OFAC in its guidance issued on Sunday, days after Trump's announcement, merely said it was "preparing to take action to wind-down General License 41 and other specific licenses as appropriate." General license 41 is the authorization for Chevron's activities in Venezuela, which was issued on 26 November 2022. "We will issue additional guidance to assist implementation concurrent with any changes to the authorization(s)," OFAC said. The 2022 authorization for Chevron was auto-renewed every month and allowed the company to operate in Venezuela for a six-month period after each renewal. Since Trump noted that he would not renew the license on 1 March, the terms of that license in theory allow Chevron to continue loading cargoes from Venezuela until at least 1 August. Multiple other foreign oil companies and traders hold OFAC licenses with sanctions waivers allowing them to load crude and other energy commodities from PdV. Former president Joe Biden's administration issued such authorizations because their terms do not involve direct payments to PdV. Most cargoes are loaded by operators in exchange for writing down debts owed to them by the Venezuelan government or by PdV. Caracas began to selectively default on its debts to foreign creditors in 2018, and foreign creditors have advanced claims totalling over $60bn. A group of those creditors have succeeded in forcing a sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo through a yet-incomplete auction overseen by a US federal court in Delaware. OFAC typically does not disclose sanctions waivers granted to individual operators. Some of them, including Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni, previously have made public disclosures about holding limited sanctions waivers. It is also not clear if sanctions waivers issued to oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford, to enable their continued presence in or a future return to Venezuela, will remain in place. Trinidad and Tobago, which has a sanctions waiver to pursue a project to import Venezuelan gas for a Trinidad-based LNG project, said last week it "will do all in its power" to preserve cross-border oil and gas production agreements. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sheinbaum urges calm ahead of Trump tariff deadline

03/03/25

Sheinbaum urges calm ahead of Trump tariff deadline

Mexico City, 3 March (Argus) — Mexico will deliver a composed and measured response if the US imposes tariffs on its imports as threatened tonight, although there has been no definitive word on what will happen, President Claudia Sheinbaum said. US president Donald Trump postponed an early February deadline to impose 25pc tariffs on all Mexican and most Canadian goods by a month to allow more time for negotiations over what he said were concerns over the flow of drugs and immigrants into the US. This followed Sheinbaum pledge to send another 10,000 national guard troops to the border to curtail drug trafficking, with a specific focus on fentanyl. Mexico has continued talks with the US this past month to demonstrate results of its efforts. But the Mexican government does not yet know if this has been sufficient to convince Trump to further pause tariffs, Sheinbaum said this morning. "Whatever the decision is, we will have a plan to respond," Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference. Mexico has a plan that includes retaliatory tariffs as an option, Sheinbaum said last month. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said on a broadcast interview Sunday that the US will likely implement the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but that Trump could lower the tariffs below 25pc. Lutnick described the situation as "fluid", leaving open the possibilities for last-minute negotiations. Sheinbaum could still have a call with Trump before the deadline expires, much like last month, when the tariffs were postponed following talks between the presidents , Sheinbaum said last week. Sheinbaum said such a call could come today. Tariffs would likely curtail energy trade between the US and Mexico. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Mexico also imports much of its road fuels and LPG from the US. But hitting these goods with retaliatory tariffs would be costly for Mexico and may be unlikely, according to market sources. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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