Canada’s tariff response will be ‘forceful’: Trudeau

: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas
25/01/31

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is planning an immediate retaliation should US president Donald Trump impose a 25pc tariff on imports tomorrow, 1 February.

"If the president does choose to implement any tariffs against Canada, we are ready with a response," said Trudeau at a meeting of the Council on Canada-US Relations in Toronto. "A purposeful, forceful, but reasonable, immediate response."

"It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," he said.

Trump has accused Canada and Mexico of facilitating trafficking of fentanyl and illegal migration and has threatened tariffs to persuade the two countries to tighten borders they share with the US.

"Our border is safe and secure," said Trudeau. "We're committed to keeping it that way by addressing current challenges and strengthening our capacity."

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said this week Mexico is also ready to respond to US tariffs. "We will always defend respect for our sovereignty and a dialogue as equals, but without subordination," she said.

Canada in mid-December said it would spend C$1.3bn ($900bn) on border security measures over six years, which Trudeau reiterated Friday while highlighting recent progress. The 8,891-kilometre (5,525-miles) US-Canada border is the longest in the world.

Trump has also railed against the US' trade deficit with Canada, which is on track to settle at about C$65bn in 2024, according to TD Bank. The bank notes the deficit is largely a result of America's thirst for energy and should not be confused with a "subsidy".

Canada has increased deliveries of crude to the US beyond 4mn b/d and supplied 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) of natural gas in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM).

"We won't relent until tariffs are removed, and of course, everything is on the table," Trudeau said of Canada's potential retaliation, a message that has drawn concern from the premier of oil-rich Alberta who wants the unfettered flow of energy.

All told, the two highly-integrated countries exchange about C$3.6bn of goods and services each day, only slightly less than daily US-Mexico trade, TD Bank said last week.

By Brett Holmes

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25/03/05

Kazakhstan massively overshoots Opec+ target

London, 5 March (Argus) — Kazakhstan exceeded its Opec+ crude production target by almost 280,000 b/d in February, driven by a surge in output from its Tengiz oil field. Kazakhstan's crude production rose by 297,000 b/d to 1.747mn b/d in February, deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov said today, putting it 279,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d. "We fully understand we are overproducing. The main reason is that we expected [new] Tengiz production in the middle of the year, however international shareholders decided to start up in January," Zhamauov said. The Chevron-led Tengiz oil project launched a third crude production plant in January. This helped boost Tengiz production to 878,000 b/d in February, compared with about 500,000 b/d in mid-January — although part of the increase is explained by the completion of maintenance at another crude unit at Tengiz . Zhamauov reiterated a previous pledge to cut production at other fields to offset the rise in Tengiz output. "It's not so easy to cut the production of all the oil fields, especially when we have international shareholders, so we are in a negotiation process with them," he said. The rest of Kazakhstan's crude production is from the 400,000 b/d Kashagan field and the 250,000 b/d Karachaganak field, as well as smaller fields operated by other firms including state-controlled Kazmunaigaz. Like Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak are operated by international consortia. Kazakhstan remains one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, despite repeatedly pledging to compensate for exceeding its target since January 2024. This has frustrated other Opec+ members who have largely stuck to their production targets. "We will be putting in all our efforts to compensate during the year," Zhamauov said. Opec+ members, including Kazakhstan, agreed this week to proceed with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts starting in April. Zhamauov confirmed that Kazakh crude flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) have not been affected by a drone attack on a Russian part of the line in February. He added that repair work will take about two months but have no impact on Kazakh production. Kazakhstan's crude exports were 1.39mn b/d in February, up from 1.073mn b/d in January, while refinery runs were 348,000 b/d, up by 48,000 b/d, Zhamauov said. Condensate production was 278,000 b/d in February, compared with 271,000 b/d in January, he added. This brings Kazakhstan's total liquids production in February to 2.025mn b/d, in line with its target of increasing production by 10pc to 2mn b/d this year . By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia plans to build new 500,000 b/d oil refinery

25/03/05

Indonesia plans to build new 500,000 b/d oil refinery

Singapore, 5 March (Argus) — Indonesia plans to build an oil refinery with a planned capacity of approximately 500,000 b/d, as part of the country's push to develop its downstream sectors to ensure energy security. The refinery will be able to process domestic and imported crude oil, and will produce up to about 532,000 b/d of various oil products, according to the ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM). The construction of the refinery will require investments of up to $12.5bn, and it will help to reduce Indonesia's dependence on imports, said the ESDM. No details on timeline or location were provided. It is unclear how the new refinery fits with Indonesia's existing downstream expansion plans, many of which have stalled. The country has not built a new refinery since 1994, leaving it reliant on imports to meet demand for oil products, notably gasoline. Several new projects have been touted in recent years, including a joint venture between state-owned Pertamina and Russian firm Rosneft for a 300,000 b/d refinery and petrochemical plant at Tuban in east Java, but have yet to reach a final investment decision. The country's president Prabowo Subianto has set a target for reviving Indonesia's oil output to 900,000-1mn b/d by 2028-29. "We still have a lot of oil," said energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia last month, encouraging the use of enhanced oil recovery and urging exploration wells to be upgraded to production wells. The country's oil production currently stands at around 600,000 b/d , with state-owned refiner Pertamina accounting for 400,000 b/d of this, while the country's consumption amounts to more than 1.5mn b/d. Developing DME Another downstream initiative that the ESDM is planning is the acceleration of the development of dimethyl ether (DME) through coal gasification, to use it as a substitute for LPG and reduce imports. The development of the DME industry will "no longer depend on foreign investors," said Bahlil, adding that it will instead rely on domestic resources and capital, "which will be implemented through government policies." Indonesia already has the raw materials as well as the offtakers, while the technology, money and capital expenditure can all come from the government and domestic private sector, said Bahlil, so Indonesia does not have to be "dependent on other parties." Indonesia has agreed to provide $40bn worth of funding to 21 first-phase downstream projects. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump aide signals possible retreat on tariffs

25/03/04

Trump aide signals possible retreat on tariffs

Washington, 4 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's top trade adviser on Tuesday signaled a possible hasty retreat on Canada and Mexico tariffs that roiled financial and energy markets and drew threats of retaliation from the US' neighbors. The US on Tuesday imposed a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. The moves drew strong condemnation from the other governments and industry groups throughout North America. The US administration has been in talks with the governments of Canada and Mexico all day and Trump "is going to work something out with them," US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said in a televised interview late afternoon on Tuesday. "It's not going to be a pause, none of that pause stuff, but I think he's going to figure out, you do more, and I'll meet you in the middle some way and we're going to probably be announcing that tomorrow." Lutnick suggested that Trump could possibly "give relief" to products covered by the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement negotiated in his first term. "If you haven't lived under those rules, well then you got to pay the tariff," Lutnick said. Nearly all trade between the three countries is covered by the USMCA, so a return to the terms of that agreement would merely mean lifting the tariffs Trump imposed on Tuesday. Lutnick's remarks may be an attempt to mitigate the negative market reaction to Trump's tariffs. The S&P 500 index fell on Tuesday to the lowest point since Trump won the election to his second term in November. US refining and petrochemical industry group AFPM has urged the Trump administration to find a resolution quickly to prevent what would be a continent-wide trade war. Ottawa and Mexico City vowed a strong response to Trump's tariffs. "This is a very dumb thing to do," Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Tuesday. Trudeau retaliated with a 25pc tariff on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days. The largest Canadian provinces, Ontario and Quebec, separately announced possible retaliatory measures in the form of taxes or curbs on electricity exports to the US. Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum called the US' tariff on all Mexican goods unjustified but is withholding details of her government's planned counter-tariffs and other measures until Sunday. Trump, Lutnick and other US Cabinet members gave confusing signals on the level of tariffs ahead of their imposition, with Lutnick suggesting on 2 March that the rate may be lower than 25pc. The decision-making in the second Trump administration is even more centralized than during his first term, with all key decisions made by the president, who frequently chooses to overrule public remarks by his advisers and announce his intentions via his social media platform. Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday evening. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso dips, recovers on tariff hopes

25/03/04

Mexican peso dips, recovers on tariff hopes

Houston, 4 March (Argus) — The Mexican peso weakened on the US decision to go ahead with the 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada Monday, but it recovered some losses today, suggesting the market is hopeful the tariffs may be short-lived. The Mexican peso lost 1.3pc to close at Ps20.71 to the US dollar Monday afternoon, according to data from Mexico's central bank. The declines came as US president Donald Trump late Monday reaffirmed that he intended to impose 25pc tariff on all products coming from Mexico, effective early 4 March. The peso on Tuesday continued its slide to the dollar, reaching Ps 21/$1 briefly in the intraday market before paring its losses and ending the day stronger at Ps 20.74/1$, according to Mexican bank Banco Base and Mexico's central bank data. Sentiment in the market is that the US administration will lift the tariffs sooner rather than later because of deep implications for the US economy. "The exchange rate and volatility have not skyrocketed, as the market speculates that the US government could withdraw the tariffs soon and that their imposition is mainly intended to give credibility to Donald Trump's threats," said Gabriela Siller, head of the financial analysis department at Banco Base, on her X account. The tariff will especially affect Mexican agricultural exports such as tomatoes, avocados or some vegetables, as well as the automobile industry, which heavily relies on Mexico to build cars that are sold in the US. In the energy sector, tariffs could partially disrupt Pemex's crude exports to the US, which would need to be diverted to other countries, especially to Asia, to avoid the 25pc tariff. Pemex primarily sells crude under evergreen or long-term contracts, allowing it to set prices and volumes buyers must accept. These agreements vary in duration, with some being indefinite and others requiring a minimum purchase period. The 25pc tariff imposed by Trump's administration could simply be added to Pemex's benchmark price and leave US buyers to decide whether to accept it. If they decline, Pemex could offer its crude at a discount to other buyers. Last week, Pemex management said it is prepared to change its commercial strategy in case the tariffs enter into effect. Pemex exported about 505,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, or 60pc of Mexico's crude exports in 2024, vessel tracking data show. The state owned company is likely to also be affected through its exports of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) to US Gulf coast refiners, which are also optimized to convert HSFO — a low-value byproduct — into higher-value fuels like gasoline and diesel. The state-owned company exported around 130,000 b/d of HSFO to the US in 2024, down from 163,000 b/d in 2023, according to Vortexa. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada must build pipelines beyond the US: Producers

25/03/04

Canada must build pipelines beyond the US: Producers

Calgary, 4 March (Argus) — US tariffs that went into effect today underline Canada's need to build energy infrastructure that limits its dependence on its southern neighbor and improve access to other markets, Canadian oil and gas producer groups said today. "A bold and necessary action that the Canadian government should take to respond is to build retaliatory pipelines to diversify our economy to other markets beyond the United States," the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada (EPAC) said following the US' imposition of a 10pc tariff on Canadian energy. The Canadian oil and gas industry has long criticized federal energy policy for inhibiting development and scaring off investors amid concerns for getting its production to markets. This includes what it called burdensome regulations and a ban on oil tanker traffic on much of its Pacific coast. The government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau effectively killed Enbridge's 525,000 b/d Northern Gateway pipeline project and TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East project, which would have allowed Canadian oil producers to bypass the US. Regulations need to change to allow for such project again, industry groups say. "Canada urgently needs a policy overhaul to create a streamlined and durable regulatory framework," said Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) president Lisa Baiton. Long-term stability for Canadian producers will come from diversifying exports into Asia and Europe. "We are at a significant moment in Canada's history — we need to seize this moment," said Baiton. Canada sends about 80pc of its 5mn b/d of crude production to the US through a combination of onshore pipelines, crude by rail and waterborne cargoes. Canada accounts for 60pc of all US crude imports, with refiners in the US midcontinent having few alternative supplies. EPAC, which represents 100 producer and associate members who produce 40pc of Canada's crude and 65pc of the country's natural gas, encouraged the Canadian government to continue to work on border security concerns that the US had raised and take a measured approach in its response. Heavy sour WCS priced at Hardisty, Alberta, was assessed at a discount of $13.80/bl to the April Nymex WTI calendar month average on 3 March, wider by about 95¢/bl compared to the session prior. Indications Tuesday show WCS has continued to fall, but not to the depths seen on the eve of the previous trade threat on 3 February — before a deal was struck to delay the tariffs by 30-days — when it sank as low as a $15.75/bl discount. This suggests traders may have already priced in the trade action ahead of the latest threat. Some degree of price support could also be coming from upcoming turnaround season in Alberta's oil sands region. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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