Latest news on trade tariffs
Read the latest news stories as they are published.
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
Adds details from call. New York, 25 April (Argus) — Oilfield services contractor SLB said it is taking proactive steps to offset the impact of US tariffs by reviewing its supply chain and manufacturing network, pursuing exemptions and talking to customers to recover related cost increases. "We have made progress on all these fronts in the last two weeks, and we are stepping up those actions across the organization as we speak," chief financial officer Stephane Biguet told analysts after the company reported first quarter results today. SLB is partly protected from the overall tariff fallout given 80pc of total revenue comes from international markets, as well as its in-country manufacturing and local sourcing efforts. But other areas are exposed to increasing tariffs, such as imports of raw materials into the US, as well as exports from the US subject to retaliatory action. Under the current tariff framework, most of the likely effects come from trade activity between the US and China. "As the second quarter progresses and ongoing trade negotiations continue, we will hopefully gain better visibility of where tariffs may settle and the extent to which we will be able to mitigate their effects on our business," Biguet said. In the current climate, SLB says customers are likely to take a more cautious approach to near-term activity. Given industry headwinds from volatile oil prices and demand risks, SLB expects global upstream investment to decline this year from 2024, with customer spending in the Middle East and Asia holding up better than elsewhere. SLB reported a "subdued" start to the year as revenue fell 3pc in the first quarter from the same three months of 2024. The company noted higher activity in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Argentina and offshore US, along with strong growth in its data center and digital businesses in North America. However, those gains were more than offset by a larger-than-expected slowdown in Mexico, a slow start in Saudi Arabia and offshore Africa, and a steep decline in Russia. Even so, SLB remains committed to returning a minimum of $4bn to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks this year. "The industry may experience a potential shift of priorities driven by changes in the global economy, fluctuating commodity prices and evolving tariffs — all of which could impact upstream oil and gas investment and, in turn, affect demand for our products and services, said chief executive officer Olivier Le Peuch. "In this uncertain environment, we remain committed to protecting our margins, generating strong cash flow and delivering consistent value." First quarter profit of $797mn was down from $1.07bn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue of $8.5bn compared with $8.7bn last year. SLB is the last of the top oilfield services firms to post first-quarter results. Halliburton and Baker Hughes reported earlier this week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Southwest Airlines withdrew its full-year 2025 and 2026 financial forecasts due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs. The US-based passenger airline limited its outlook to just the second quarter 2025 during its first quarter earnings release on Thursday, saying a projected economic slow-down would pressure unit revenue to be flat and possibly fall by 4pc compared to the second quarter 2024. In the second quarter available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — are expected to rise by 1-2pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. First quarter ASMs were down by 1.9pc to 41.3bn from the same three-months in 2024, which was in-line with their expectations. Southwest's first quarter load factor, or the percentage of seats filled, dropped by 4.4pc from the prior year to 73.9pc. First quarter total operating expenses, including jet fuel, dropped by 2.2pc from the previous year to $6.65bn. Southwest paid $2.49¢/USG for jet fuel in the first quarter, a decrease of 16pc from 2024. Fuel efficiency improved in the first quaer due more fuel-efficient aircraft, with 500mn USG consumed, down by 4.6pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. Expected lower jet fuel prices should help ease operating cost in the upcoming months. Southwest expects to pay $2.20¢/USG to $2.3¢/USG for jet fuel in the next quarter. Southwest narrowed its first quarter 2025 net loss to $149mn from $231mn a year earlier. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc
Freeport expects tariffs to increase costs 5pc
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — US-based copper producer Freeport-McMoRan expects tariffs to increase the costs of goods needed for operations by 5pc, as suppliers will likely pass on tariff-related costs. The 145pc tariffs imposed by the US on China on 10 April will likely have the largest influence on the estimated 5pc increase, according to Freeport-McMoRan chief executive officer Kathleen Quirk. Approximately 40pc of the company's US costs will not be subject to tariffs, as they relate to labor and services. Copper is currently exempt from tariffs after President Donald Trump signed an executive order on 25 February launching a Section 232 investigation into the effect of copper imports on US national and economic security. Freeport said that its first quarter copper sales volumes of 872mn lbs exceeded its earlier estimate of 850mn lbs. But copper sales revenue decreased to $872mn this quarter from $1.1bn the first quarter of 2024. Copper production and sales were pressured in the quarter by shut operations at its Manyar smelter in Indonesia following sfire in October . The company expects start-up activities to begin at the smelter in the second quarter and return to full operations by the end of 2025. The company's molybdenum first quarter sales remained the same as 2024 first quarter's at $20mn. Freeport's net income for the first quarter was $352mn, a decrease from $473mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Reagan Patrowicz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
SLB taking steps to offset tariffs: Update
Adds details from call. New York, 25 April (Argus) — Oilfield services contractor SLB said it is taking proactive steps to offset the impact of US tariffs by reviewing its supply chain and manufacturing network, pursuing exemptions and talking to customers to recover related cost increases. "We have made progress on all these fronts in the last two weeks, and we are stepping up those actions across the organization as we speak," chief financial officer Stephane Biguet told analysts after the company reported first quarter results today. SLB is partly protected from the overall tariff fallout given 80pc of total revenue comes from international markets, as well as its in-country manufacturing and local sourcing efforts. But other areas are exposed to increasing tariffs, such as imports of raw materials into the US, as well as exports from the US subject to retaliatory action. Under the current tariff framework, most of the likely effects come from trade activity between the US and China. "As the second quarter progresses and ongoing trade negotiations continue, we will hopefully gain better visibility of where tariffs may settle and the extent to which we will be able to mitigate their effects on our business," Biguet said. In the current climate, SLB says customers are likely to take a more cautious approach to near-term activity. Given industry headwinds from volatile oil prices and demand risks, SLB expects global upstream investment to decline this year from 2024, with customer spending in the Middle East and Asia holding up better than elsewhere. SLB reported a "subdued" start to the year as revenue fell 3pc in the first quarter from the same three months of 2024. The company noted higher activity in parts of the Middle East, North Africa, Argentina and offshore US, along with strong growth in its data center and digital businesses in North America. However, those gains were more than offset by a larger-than-expected slowdown in Mexico, a slow start in Saudi Arabia and offshore Africa, and a steep decline in Russia. Even so, SLB remains committed to returning a minimum of $4bn to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks this year. "The industry may experience a potential shift of priorities driven by changes in the global economy, fluctuating commodity prices and evolving tariffs — all of which could impact upstream oil and gas investment and, in turn, affect demand for our products and services, said chief executive officer Olivier Le Peuch. "In this uncertain environment, we remain committed to protecting our margins, generating strong cash flow and delivering consistent value." First quarter profit of $797mn was down from $1.07bn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue of $8.5bn compared with $8.7bn last year. SLB is the last of the top oilfield services firms to post first-quarter results. Halliburton and Baker Hughes reported earlier this week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
New York, 23 April (Argus) — A coalition of 12 states including New York is suing the administration of President Donald Trump for imposing "illegal" tariffs that threaten to raise inflation and derail economic growth. The lawsuit, filed by attorneys general from the 12 states, argues that Congress has not granted the president the authority to impose the tariffs and the administration violated the law by imposing them through executive orders, social media posts, and agency orders. "President Trump's reckless tariffs have skyrocketed costs for consumers and unleashed economic chaos across the country," said New York governor Kathy Hochul (D). "New York is standing up to fight back against the largest federal tax hike in American history." The lawsuit alleges the tariffs will increase unemployment, threaten wages by slowing economic growth and push up the cost of key goods from electronics to building materials. The lawsuit, which was filed in the United States Court of International Trade, seeks a court order halting the tariffs. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs could cut FY profit $100mn-$200mn: Baker Hughes
Tariffs could cut FY profit $100mn-$200mn: Baker Hughes
New York, 23 April (Argus) — Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes expects a cut in its annual profit of as much as $200mn from tariffs, if current levels applied under President Donald Trump's 90-day pause stay in place for the rest of the year. That hit to profits does not include secondary effects, such as the impact of Trump's trade wars on slower global economic growth, as well as a renewed bout of weakness in oil prices. While the company is taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts, its "strong weighting" to international markets helps reduce its overall financial exposure, according to chief executive officer Lorenzo Simonelli. Increased oil price volatility due to tariffs , as well as the return of Opec+ barrels to the market, have resulted in a softening outlook for the market. As such, Baker Hughes now expects global upstream spending will be "down by high single digits" this year. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," said Simonelli. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." The company has identified three areas of tariff exposure within its industrial and energy technology division, including volumes exported to China, critical equipment supplies from its facilities in Italy, and an expected modest impact from steel and aluminum tariffs as well as US-China trade activity. Mitigation efforts include exploring domestic procurement alternatives to reduce input costs and improving its global manufacturing footprint. In relation to its oilfield services and equipment segment, Baker Hughes has been working to boost domestic sourcing and is working with customers to recover some costs. Elsewhere, the repeal of an US LNG permitting moratorium under the Trump administration has resulted in higher orders. Baker Hughes has booked about $1.7bn in LNG orders in the US over the past two quarters, and several LNG customers in the Gulf Coast have signaled plans to expand capacity beyond 2030. Profit of $402mn in the first quarter was down from $455mn in the year-earlier period. Revenue held steady at about $6.4bn. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Phillips 66 ups crude switching at Texas refinery
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — US independent refiner Phillips 66 completed a project in the first quarter that allows it to adjust more of the crude slate at its 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery in Old Ocean, Texas. The project will allow the company to switch about 40,000 b/d between heavy and light crude, Phillips 66 said today in an earnings release. The flexibility project was completed during a first quarter turnaround. Several US refiners are exploring ways to run more lighter crude grades in the wake of new US tariffs and other actions that may limit the supply of heavier and medium grade crudes imported from trading partners. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Southwest Airlines shortens outlook to 2Q only
Houston, 24 April (Argus) — Southwest Airlines withdrew its full-year 2025 and 2026 financial forecasts due to economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs. The US-based passenger airline limited its outlook to just the second quarter 2025 during its first quarter earnings release on Thursday, saying a projected economic slow-down would pressure unit revenue to be flat and possibly fall by 4pc compared to the second quarter 2024. In the second quarter available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — are expected to rise by 1-2pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. First quarter ASMs were down by 1.9pc to 41.3bn from the same three-months in 2024, which was in-line with their expectations. Southwest's first quarter load factor, or the percentage of seats filled, dropped by 4.4pc from the prior year to 73.9pc. First quarter total operating expenses, including jet fuel, dropped by 2.2pc from the previous year to $6.65bn. Southwest paid $2.49¢/USG for jet fuel in the first quarter, a decrease of 16pc from 2024. Fuel efficiency improved in the first quaer due more fuel-efficient aircraft, with 500mn USG consumed, down by 4.6pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. Expected lower jet fuel prices should help ease operating cost in the upcoming months. Southwest expects to pay $2.20¢/USG to $2.3¢/USG for jet fuel in the next quarter. Southwest narrowed its first quarter 2025 net loss to $149mn from $231mn a year earlier. By Carrie Carter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs
New York, 23 April (Argus) — A coalition of 12 states including New York is suing the administration of President Donald Trump for imposing "illegal" tariffs that threaten to raise inflation and derail economic growth. The lawsuit, filed by attorneys general from the 12 states, argues that Congress has not granted the president the authority to impose the tariffs and the administration violated the law by imposing them through executive orders, social media posts, and agency orders. "President Trump's reckless tariffs have skyrocketed costs for consumers and unleashed economic chaos across the country," said New York governor Kathy Hochul (D). "New York is standing up to fight back against the largest federal tax hike in American history." The lawsuit alleges the tariffs will increase unemployment, threaten wages by slowing economic growth and push up the cost of key goods from electronics to building materials. The lawsuit, which was filed in the United States Court of International Trade, seeks a court order halting the tariffs. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs could cut FY profit $100mn-$200mn: Baker Hughes
Tariffs could cut FY profit $100mn-$200mn: Baker Hughes
New York, 23 April (Argus) — Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes expects a cut in its annual profit of as much as $200mn from tariffs, if current levels applied under President Donald Trump's 90-day pause stay in place for the rest of the year. That hit to profits does not include secondary effects, such as the impact of Trump's trade wars on slower global economic growth, as well as a renewed bout of weakness in oil prices. While the company is taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts, its "strong weighting" to international markets helps reduce its overall financial exposure, according to chief executive officer Lorenzo Simonelli. Increased oil price volatility due to tariffs , as well as the return of Opec+ barrels to the market, have resulted in a softening outlook for the market. As such, Baker Hughes now expects global upstream spending will be "down by high single digits" this year. The company forecasts a low-double digit decline in North America spending by its clients, and a mid-to-high single digit drop internationally. "A sustained move lower in oil prices or worsening tariffs would introduce further downside risk to this outlook," said Simonelli. "The prospects of an oversupplied oil market, rising tariffs, uncertainty in Mexico and activity weakness in Saudi Arabia are collectively constraining international upstream spending levels." The company has identified three areas of tariff exposure within its industrial and energy technology division, including volumes exported to China, critical equipment supplies from its facilities in Italy, and an expected modest impact from steel and aluminum tariffs as well as US-China trade activity. Mitigation efforts include exploring domestic procurement alternatives to reduce input costs and improving its global manufacturing footprint. In relation to its oilfield services and equipment segment, Baker Hughes has been working to boost domestic sourcing and is working with customers to recover some costs. Elsewhere, the repeal of an US LNG permitting moratorium under the Trump administration has resulted in higher orders. Baker Hughes has booked about $1.7bn in LNG orders in the US over the past two quarters, and several LNG customers in the Gulf Coast have signaled plans to expand capacity beyond 2030. Profit of $402mn in the first quarter was down from $455mn in the year-earlier period. Revenue held steady at about $6.4bn. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Halliburton working to mitigate tariff impact: Update
Halliburton working to mitigate tariff impact: Update
Adds details from call. New York, 22 April (Argus) — Oilfield services giant Halliburton said it is working to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but still expects to take a 2-3¢/share hit on its second quarter profits. About 60pc of the tariff impact will fall on Halliburton's completions and productions unit, which includes its hydraulic fracturing business, while the rest will affect the drilling and evaluation operation. The company said it has a well-diversified supply chain and can pull other levels to mitigate the effect of tariffs. "We need a bit more clarity and stability in the structure of tariffs so that we can really understand what levers we can pull and then what the overall outcome is going to be," chief financial officer Eric Carre told analysts today after Halliburton posted first quarter results. Quizzed about the market turmoil resulting from US president Donald Trump's growing trade wars, the company said customers are still digesting how their operations will be affected. "From our perspective anyway, the market's not building new equipment," said chief executive officer Jeff Miller, helping to avoid the risk of an oversupply seen in past cycles. Moreover, US upstream companies are more "biased to working through things" than in the past, he added, echoing comments from Liberty Energy last week that the industry is better placed to withstand a downturn than in the recent past given a focus on capital restraint rather than growth at any cost. Halliburton recognized there is more uncertainty now than there was three months ago. However, its international business reported a "solid start" to 2025, with significant contract awards. Even as the market slows in North America, Halliburton aims to outperform rivals by driving technology gains and improving the quality of its services. "Many of our customers are in the midst of evaluating their activity scenarios and plans for 2025," said Miller. "Activity reductions could mean higher than normal white space for committed fleets, and in some cases, the retirement or export of fleets to international markets." International revenue this year is expected to be flat to slightly down compared with 2024, given increased risks to the outlook. Miller struck an upbeat tone in discussing the industry's long-term prospects, despite tariffs and the earlier return of Opec+ barrels, both of which have weighed on oil prices. Demand is at record levels and fossil fuels will play a key role in meeting future energy demand. "Decline curves are real, and in many basins significant, and adequate supplies today do not guarantee adequate supplies tomorrow without ongoing investment," Miller warned. "Our technology will continue to transform the industry and it will unlock new sources of value for us and our customers." 1Q profit, revenue down Profit of $204mn in the first quarter was down from $606mn in the same three months of 2024. Revenue slipped to $5.4bn from $5.8bn. North America revenue fell by 12pc to $2.2bn, largely because of lower stimulation activity in US land as well as a decline in completion tool sales in the Gulf of Mexico. International sales dipped by 2pc to $3.2bn, with Latin America revenue falling 19pc because of a slowdown in Mexico. However, revenue grew in Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The company also reported a pre-tax charge of $356mn from employee severance costs and an impairment of assets held for sale. Halliburton is the first of the top oilfield services firms to release results. Baker Hughes will follow later on Tuesday, and SLB at the end of the week. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Uncertainty in US may lead LNG buyers to look elsewhere
Uncertainty in US may lead LNG buyers to look elsewhere
London, 22 April (Argus) — US tariffs and potential port fees on Chinese ships are creating uncertainty for US LNG projects that are looking to reach final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2025-26, and this could prompt potential buyers to look for non-US projects with similar timelines. Project developers need to recalculate their costs in the face of the new tariffs on US imports , which may delay planned FIDs for 2025-26 and expected commissions towards the end of this decade (see table) . Planned US LNG projects that expect to reach a financial close by the end of 2026 amount to close to 71mn t/yr, constituting the second wave of LNG exports in the late 2020s, after Qatar's massive expansion, to come on line in 2026. The total capacity would increase to 89mn t/yr if planned projects in Mexico with US feedgas are included (see table) . And the US' new port fees on non-US vessels has compounded concerns for shipowners and LNG firms. US exporters need to aim to export 15pc of their output on US-built, US-flagged and US-operated vessels by 2047, starting from 1pc in April 2028. Exporters' licenses could be revoked if terminals do not comply with this regulation. US LNG carriers are likely to be much more expensive than LNG carriers built elsewhere, market participants said, and the requirement for US LNG carriers could raise the overall costs of US projects. Despite the exemptions on LNG vessels, shipowners, charterers and LNG buyers are likely to start considering the political risks before making commercial commitments, either for vessel chartering or for commodity purchases, for 10-20 years, market participants said. And it could take about 10 years before US shipbuilding capacity builds up sufficiently to start constructing LNG vessels, market participants familiar with the matter told Argus . Options beyond the US Many LNG importers have started to reconsider non-US LNG projects, despite their respective difficulties, given the cloud of uncertainty shrouding the US' trade environment in the coming years. Outside of Qatar, Mozambique has seen the greatest number of proposals for LNG projects, although development in the country faces multiple threats. The government on 9 April approved Italian energy company Eni's 3.4mn t/yr Coral North floating LNG project. And the Export-Import Bank of the US again approved a loan for the 13.1mn t/yr Mozambique LNG project, led by TotalEnergies. The project could start operations in 2029-30, according to TotalEnergies, if construction can resume in the first half of this year. ExxonMobil expects to reach an FID on its 18mn t/yr Rovuma LNG export project, also in Mozambique, in early 2026, with commission likely to start in the early 2030s. Norway's Equinor is also leading a 10mn t/yr Tanzania LNG project in eastern Africa, aiming for an FID in 2025 and production towards the end of this decade. And many Canadian LNG projects are also unsold, with the 14mn t/yr LNG Canada phase 2, 12mn t/yr Ksi Lisims and 3.3mn t/yr Cedar phase 2 projects all having unsold capacity. Continued interest in US projects But US LNG projects this month have continued to add equity partners and sell through long-term agreements because US projects are still more likely to reach FID than other exporters with planned projects, market participants said. NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG in south Texas and Woodside's Louisiana LNG have signed long-term deals with buyers in recent weeks. Woodside also sold 40pc of the project to US-based investment firm Stonepeak. And Lake Charles LNG and Commonwealth LNG have sold stakes to foreign investors this month as these projects progress toward FIDs. Buyers may look to narrow their trade deficit with the US by boosting their imports of US LNG. Many Asian countries — Japan and Thailand, for example — have shown interest in buying more US LNG on a long-term basis since US president Donald Trump announced the tariffs earlier this month. LNG projects in other countries such as Mozambique and Argentina face their own sets of risks, including political instability and challenges attracting investment, shipping firm Flex LNG board member Susan Sakmar told Argus . "Buyers should ask themselves who do they think can get a project off the ground, and when and whom do they think will be a reliable supplier over the long term? So far, the US and Qatar are the leaders in this regard, and I think they will continue to lead after this bit of market uncertainty is behind us," she said. By Xiaoyi Deng and Tray Swanson LNG projects awaiting FIDs mn t/yr Name Developer Planned capacity US LNG Delfin FLNG Delfin 13.2 Texas LNG Glenfarne 4.0 CP2 Venture Global 28.0 Corpus Christi 8-9 Cheniere 3.3 Louisiana LNG Woodside 16.5 Cameron train 4 Sempra 6.8 Mexican LNG project Energia Costa Azul Sempra 3.3 Saguaro Mexico Pacific 15.0 — Firms Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Recycled resin importers caught in tariff uncertainty
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's evolving tariff policies have created tremendous uncertainty for US importers of recycled polymers, and constant halts and flip-flopping from the administration have led some to pause their US operations. Multiple importers told Argus that the constantly changing US tariffs on goods have upended business plans, and forced them to pause their US operations for the time being due to uncertainty about the taxes their material will face when it reaches US shores. "You have to have some confidence that conditions will hold in order to import," one trader told Argus . Trump's tariff rollout began on 1 February, when he announced that China would face a 10pc universal tariff, and the US's two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, would face 25pc universal tariffs. At the time, market participants speculated that the 25pc tariffs on Canada and Mexico would make operations and sales more expensive for Mexican and Canadian recyclers, particularly those that trade bales or finished resin across the US border. After some negotiations between world leaders, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were delayed for 30 days, though the 10pc tariff on China went into effect as planned. The 25pc universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico were pushed back again on 6 March, but tariffs on aluminum — a significant competitor to rPET packaging — went into place on 12 March. The tariffs on aluminum have not been rescinded or paused, and the extra cost for imported aluminum as a result of the tariff could incentivize US consumer goods companies to use more PET in their packaging. On 9 April, the US put into place varying reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries that export recycled resin to the US, including India, Malaysia and Vietnam. While rPET and vPET pellets were excluded from the reciprocal tariffs, importers of rPE, rPP and PET waste were not excluded from the tariff. The same day, the reciprocal tariffs were pushed back 90 days in favor of a 10pc universal tariff that excludes Canada and Mexico. China and the US's reciprocal tariffs have escalated into a trade war, and currently material from China faces a 145pc tariff. Since the price is too high for most importers to be willing to pay, in essence all recycled resin imports from China are halted. China is one of the largest buyers of US virgin polyethylene https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2675420), and the current trade war with China has the potential to increase domestic supply as exporters are forced to find new buyers for resin. Increased competition from oversupplied virgin resin could pull down recycled resin pricing. Until some stability in tariff policy returns to the US, traders and importers will continue to turn to other destinations outside the US to sell their recycled resin. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
London, 10 April (Argus) — Most linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) imports will be exempt from EU retaliatory tariffs should the bloc go ahead with countermeasures against the US, according to a draft list of products seen by Argus . The EU has put the retaliatory tariffs on hold for now, after US president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is pausing his planned "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The European Commission has yet to publish the final list of US products that would be subject to any countermeasures, but before Trump's surprise move, the HS code 39014000 was removed. The list was approved by a majority vote of EU member states on Wednesday . Other HS codes of PE grades were included in the draft list and are earmarked for 25pc tariffs. It is now uncertain if and when the EU tariffs might be implemented. Prior to Trump's u-turn, 15 May was the likely date for EU tariffs on US PE imports. But "everything is paused," European Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill told Argus . LLDPE imports into the EU are categorised under the HS codes 39014000 and 39011010. The former made up just over half of all PE imports to the EU from the US in 2024, while the latter accounted for less than 12pc. The EU's PE imports from the US totalled 1.8mn t last year. Market participants told Argus that the EU will remain dependant on LLDPE imports from the US for specific grades, which include LLDPE butene and metallocene LLDPE. The UK also excluded US-origin LLDPE imports falling under the HS code 390140 from its provisional list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. By Sam Hashmi and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
Houston, 4 April (Argus) — US polyethylene (PE) traders are concerned that retaliatory tariffs announced this week by China and being considered by the European Union will close the door to two of the biggest markets for US resin exports. China announced today it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, while the EU is in the process of finalizing countermeasures this week, all in response to widespread tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April. "This closes off China," said one US export trader. "And it looks like a full stop in Europe too." The US exported 2.4mn t of PE to China in 2024, representing 16.8pc of total US PE exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. Exports to the EU totaled 2.26mn t, representing 15pc of all US exports. US PE exports in 2024 totaled 14.2mn t, with exports representing 47pc of total sales last year. During the previous Trump administration, China provided waivers for certain tariffs, including on some PE grades. Some market participants have said that may be possible again, while others have said they see it as less likely, as China has become more self-sufficient, and has other alternative suppliers, such as the Middle East. "(China) is in a better position to impose tariffs on PE today than they were in 2018," said one North American PE producer. It will be difficult for US producers to make up for the loss of market share in China and the EU, which could result in producers needing to slow operating rates. For now, markets in Africa, Latin America and southeast Asia, remain open for US material, but traders are concerned that other top trading partners could also retaliate against the US, closing off additional markets. "There are not enough places to go with this stuff," the trader said. With limited export opportunities, the North American PE producer agreed that production would likely need to slow to keep material from backing up in the domestic market and causing domestic prices to fall. "The last time we saw tariff action from China, there was an impact on the domestic market," the producer said. "Pricing went down." For this week, US PE export pricing has held fairly steady as the market absorbs the tariff news. But market participants said they believe prices could move down in the coming weeks if production is not slowed. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
London, 3 April (Argus) — Nearly every country that sends fertilizer products to the US will be hit with fresh import duties after President Donald Trump yesterday announced reciprocal tariff policies that are likely to increase nutrient prices in the US. According to the White House administration, a baseline 10pc tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported into the US excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at a 25pc rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a reduced rate of 10pc. Imports of goods from other nations will begin paying the baseline 10pc rate on 5 April, while roughly 60 countries were given more specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have placed on US goods. The US imports a significant amount of fertilizer products from other countries to supplement limited domestic production capabilities. Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago are well known names in the fertilizer market as major producers that ship a large amount of product to the US. Under the new sweeping tariff policy Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago and Australia can expect a 10pc duty on all imports sent to the US, while Israel can expect a 17pc duty and Jordan will face a 20pc duty. A 28pc tariff will be applied to imports from Tunisia. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizers to the US and a reciprocal tariff does not apply to the country. But there is uncertainty as to whether Russia is exempt from the universal 10pc rate applied to other countries. Phosphates Countervailing duties largely blocking Russian and Moroccan phosphates have enabled Saudi Arabia to grow its share of US DAP/MAP imports to 45pc in 2024, according to GTT data. They also opened the door to non-traditional suppliers including Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, which together accounted for 21pc of US DAP/MAP imports last year. Australia has been a regular supplier to the US, averaging 9pc of imports over the past five years — although this fell to 4pc in 2024. The base 10pc tariff applied to Morocco will add to the countervailing duties in place and act as more of a deterrent. Still, customs data show that 10pc of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last year. Mexico supplied 318,000t of DAP/MAP to the US last year, accounting for 14pc of total imports. But the 25pc tariff imposed a month ago will probably stifle this trade flow. MAP barge prices in the US are currently equivalent to the mid-$660s/t cfr Nola. Latest MAP sales to Brazil were at $660/t cfr but indications are now reaching $680/t cfr. After these latest tariffs come into effect on 5 April, US buyers will have to pay more to secure phosphate supply, otherwise cargoes will be drawn to more attractive markets, such as Latin America. Potassium-based products, phos rock escape tariffs The White House also confirmed in an annex that some goods will be exempt from these latest tariffs including certain critical minerals. Goods that will be spared include a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. Trump last month included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals, and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The majority of the US' MOP supply is imported, with 98pc/yr coming from other countries, and 85pc of that from Canada, according to TFI data. The US typically imports 11mn-13mn t/yr of MOP, although GTT data show that the US imported close to 14mn t of MOP in 2024. USMCA still effective Tariffs on North American countries Mexico and Canada will continue within the status quo of an executive order issued in early March. All products covered under the USMCA free trade agreement will continue to be imported into the US without tariffs. USMCA compliant products include wholly created goods in Mexico or Canada, such as sulphur, MOP, ammonia and other nitrogen fertilizers, but goods produced with inputs that come from other countries, such as phosphate fertilizers manufactured in Mexico, are at greater risk of being tariffed, depending on how rules of origin outlined in the USMCA are enforced. Phosphate fertilizers produced in Mexico use imported phosphate rock as well as some imported ammonia, while the same products manufactured in Canada, for example, use domestically produced rock. The US fertilizer market is currently barrelling towards the final weeks of the spring application season, where nutrients are put into the ground as crop planting continues. Therefore most fertilizer purchasing for the spring has now taken place. But with the new tariffs applying to the majority of nutrient imports into the US, domestic prices and barge trade activity could accelerate above the norm as the market scurries to secure product before prices move to even more unfavourable levels. By Taylor Zavala, Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson New US import tariffs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
London, 9 April (Argus) — China will add an additional 50pc tariff on US goods, raising the total to 84pc from 10 April, the country's finance ministry said today, but agricultural markets could be largely sheltered from the fallout, because China has already been showing limited demand for US grains and oilseeds since December . Tariffs will rise to 84pc for US goods arriving in China, matching US tariffs on imports from China. But purchases of US-origin agricultural products from private importers to China has already wound down since December, meaning that any rises in duties are unlikely to put any further pressure on China-bound shipments. Just 9,900t of US corn arrived in China between December 2024 and February 2025, the latest available customs data show, compared with 1.4mn t a year earlier. Soybean sales have been higher across the same period, with 13.4mn t arriving between December and February this year, compared with 8.8mn t a year ago. But most private buyers have refrained from making new US-origin purchases since December. By Megan Evans Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Paris, 3 April (Argus) — Grain and oilseed traders were buffeted by volatile futures markets and exchange rates on Wednesday. But the full impact of the tariffs imposed by the US — a major net exporter of wheat, corn and soy — is only likely to emerge once other governments' responses become clear. Wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading lower on the day when the Chicago Board of Trade opened on 3 April, the day after the US announced a swathe of import tariffs . But corn and wheat futures contracts began to recover hours later. Canada and Mexico, which made headlines in the initial wave of tariffs from Trump's administration, were on the sidelines on 2 April. Both are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This means Mexico could remain an important outlet for US corn and wheat — for now. US corn sellers have relied heavily on Mexico to shore up sales this marketing year. Of the 54mn t of current-crop US corn sold for export this marketing year (September-August) as of 27 March, 19mn t has been for Mexico, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show. USDA sees US corn exports hitting 62mn t this marketing year. Impact on Europe and Asia Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed futures also began trading down on the day. But a sharp fall in the value of the dollar against the euro meant bids and offers for EU wheat discussed in the physical market in dollar terms held more or less steady early today. The Interactive Data Corp exchange rate closed at €0.90630 to the dollar at midday in London on 3 April — the lowest since October 2024. Ukrainian corn sellers are under particular pressure from a drop in the price of US commodities on certain markets, but could also stand to gain from a halt in deliveries of US corn to importers in Asia, before Brazil begins shipping its safrinha crop in July. Ukrainian corn typically competes with the US in Mediterranean markets, notably Spain, and in China. But Ukrainian corn has not been competitive against US corn recently — in the month since 3 March , when the US doubled tariffs on China from the 10pc introduced on 4 February, Ukrainian corn fob prices' premium to US corn fob Gulf has climbed, and in late March it hit its highest in Ukraine's current October-September marketing year, Argus -assessed prices show. But there is no guarantee that buyers will pay up, at least not immediately. Chinese buyers have already distanced themselves from US corn and soybeans this marketing year. Chinese buyers took little notice of Ukrainian corn sellers floating offers at above $270/t cif China on 2 April, immediately after the US announced an additional 34pc tariff on imports from China — bringing the actual rate to 54pc — and Beijing vowed retaliation . Chinese importers bid for Ukrainian corn in the $250s/t cif for July-August loading last week . Chinese buyers could be exposed to hikes in Brazilian soybean prices — something that might be more likely if EU buyers book more soybeans from Brazil at the expense of US cargoes. US soybean sales to China have already begun to slow. Chinese crushers have avoided US soybeans since December because of uncertainty over trade relations. Shipments to China dominated US vessel line-ups in late March, with exporters sending 641,000t to China on 21-27 March alone. Some 600,000t of corn was sold but not yet shipped as of 27 March, compared with 1.6mn t still to ship at the same point last month, weekly USDA data show. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs
Alcoa expects to incur $90mn 2Q hit from tariffs
Houston, 21 April (Argus) — US-based integrated aluminum producer Alcoa anticipates $90mn in tariff-related costs associated with importing primary aluminum from Canada during the second quarter. For the full year, the Pennsylvania-based company foresees that figure rising to between $400mn-425mn, as 70pc of its production from Canada "is destined for US customers," Alcoa chief executive William Oplinger said in a first-quarter earnings call late Wednesday. A higher Midwest premium should help offset most of those cost pressures in support of Alcoa's domestic smelters, but Oplinger warned that the company still faces a $100mn negative impact on its business in 2025 because of the higher Section 232 duties that US president Donald Trump implemented on 12 March. The company noted that the US lacks the infrastructure to cover domestic aluminum consumption, even if all other idled smelting capacity here would restart. "Until additional smelting capacity is built in the US, the most efficient aluminum supply chain is Canadian aluminum going into the US," Oplinger said. By his estimate, at least five domestic smelters would need to be added, but construction would take "many years" and investment would be partially dependent on access to new — and cheap — energy sources. "These new smelters would require additional energy production equivalent to almost seven new nuclear reactors or more than 10 Hoover dams," Oplinger said. Still, Alcoa maintained its full-year production and sales volume guidance for aluminum products, ranging between 2.3mn-2.5mn metric tonnes (t) and 2.6mn-2.8mn t, respectively. It also kept its outlook for alumina output and shipments unchanged at 9.5mn-9.7mn t and 13.1mn-13.3mn t, respectively. First-quarter aluminum production increased by 4pc to 564,000t from the prior-year period, while total sales volumes fell by 3.9pc in the same timeframe, reflecting timing of shipments and the end of its offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia Mining (Ma'aden) as part of its planned divestment from the entities' aluminum joint venture. Alumina output in January-March dropped by 12pc to 2.4mn t on the year, while shipments fell by 12pc as well, to 2.1mn t. Alcoa attributed the drop in sales volumes to timing of shipments and reduced trading. Quarterly bauxite production fell by 5.9pc to 9.5mn dry metric tonnes (dmt) from the prior-year period, while sales volumes increased by 67pc to 3mn dmt. The company was able to capitalize on supply tightness in the bauxite market that has helped elevate prices to $80-85/dmt, selling cargoes in the spot market. Alcoa posted a $548mn profit in the first quarter compared to a loss of $252mn in the prior-year period. Revenues increased by 30pc to nearly $3.4bn in the same timeframe. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Canada grants tariff relief to automakers
Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
GM stopping, slowing Ontario EV van production
GM stopping, slowing Ontario EV van production
Houston, 14 April (Argus) — US automaker General Motors will stop and then reduce production of its BrightDrop electric delivery van at the Ingersoll, Ontario, assembly plant, initiating layoffs of nearly 500 workers, according to Canada's private sector union Unifor. GM will begin temporary layoffs on 14 April, with workers returning in May for limited production. After that, operations will be idled until October 2025, Unifor said. When production resumes, the plant will operate on a single shift for the foreseeable future — a reduction that will lead to the indefinite layoff of nearly 500 workers. During the downtime, GM plans to complete retooling work to prepare the facility for production of its 2026 model-year commercial electric vehicles. GM sold 274 BrightDrop vans in the first quarter, up 7pc from a year earlier. While GM remains committed to the Ortario facility with planned 2026 upgrades, its future is uncertain without stronger domestic support and fair market access, according to Unifor. "The reality is the US is creating industry turmoil," said Unifor National President Lana Payne, referring to sweeping global US tariffs. "Trump's short-sighted tariffs and rejection of electric vehicle technology is disrupting investment and freezing future order projections." By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs. The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month. Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year." "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said. The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month. The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March. The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result. Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
