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United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
United Airlines to cut 3Q capacity on uncertainty
Houston, 15 April (Argus) — United Airlines plans to decrease the number of flights it operates in the third quarter because of lower passenger numbers and economic uncertainties. The US-based air carrier said that it will be removing four percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity in the third quarter of 2025 and expects to retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned. Global economic uncertainty prompted the company to provide two scenarios for for its financial results for 2025 — one based on the US economy remaining weaker but stable, and the other for the US entering a recession. In the stable scenario, assuming current fuel price outlooks, the company expects a $11.50-$13.50 per share profit. Under the recessionary scenario profits would be in the $7-9/share range. Despite the possibility of slower busines, the airline plans to expand its investments at Chicago O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, with six additional gates and plans to expand at San Francisco's international airport as well. 1Q results In the first quarter domestic passenger load factor — a measurement of capacity utilization — declined by 3.4 percentage points to 80.3pc compared to the same quarter in 2024. United's revenue passenger miles (RPM) — a measurement of total miles flown by paying passengers — increased by 3.6pc to 59.5bn miles in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Available seat miles (ASM) — a measure of capacity — rose by 4.9pc to 75.2bn miles in the quarter. United's average fuel cost decreased by 12.2pc to $2.53/USG during the first quarter. The airline consumed 4.1pc more fuel in the quarter. Total operating expenses rose by 1.3pc to $12.6bn in the quarter while total operating revenue increased by 5.4pc to $13.2bn. The airline reported $387mn profit in the first quarter, up from a $124mn loss reported a year earlier. By Hunter Fite Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
GM stopping, slowing Ontario EV van production
GM stopping, slowing Ontario EV van production
Houston, 14 April (Argus) — US automaker General Motors will stop and then reduce production of its BrightDrop electric delivery van at the Ingersoll, Ontario, assembly plant, initiating layoffs of nearly 500 workers, according to Canada's private sector union Unifor. GM will begin temporary layoffs on 14 April, with workers returning in May for limited production. After that, operations will be idled until October 2025, Unifor said. When production resumes, the plant will operate on a single shift for the foreseeable future — a reduction that will lead to the indefinite layoff of nearly 500 workers. During the downtime, GM plans to complete retooling work to prepare the facility for production of its 2026 model-year commercial electric vehicles. GM sold 274 BrightDrop vans in the first quarter, up 7pc from a year earlier. While GM remains committed to the Ortario facility with planned 2026 upgrades, its future is uncertain without stronger domestic support and fair market access, according to Unifor. "The reality is the US is creating industry turmoil," said Unifor National President Lana Payne, referring to sweeping global US tariffs. "Trump's short-sighted tariffs and rejection of electric vehicle technology is disrupting investment and freezing future order projections." By Carol Luk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec cuts oil demand forecasts on tariffs impact
Opec cuts oil demand forecasts on tariffs impact
London, 14 April (Argus) — Opec has cut its oil demand growth forecasts by 150,000 b/d for this year and 2026, citing US trade tariffs. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down its 2025 oil consumption growth projection to 1.3mn b/d, from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. It said this was because of received data in the first three months of the year and "announced US tariffs." For 2026, the producer group now sees oil use growing by 1.28mn b/d, compared with 1.43mn b/d previously. It now sees demand at 105.05mn b/d in 2025, and at 106.33mn b/d in 2026. The outlook for oil demand and prices have sharply deteriorated since US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements and the Opec+ alliance's decision to speed up planned output hikes, both decisions taken in early April. But Opec's oil demand revisions are relatively modest compared with those by some investment banks in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs slashed its oil demand forecast for this year to just 300,000 b/d. Morgan Stanley sees demand growth at 500,000 b/d in the second half of this year, half of its prior estimate. In terms of supply, Opec cut its non-Opec+ liquids growth forecast by 100,000 b/d for 2025 and for 2026, to 910,000 b/d and 900,000 b/d respectively. The US was the main driver for downward revision in both years: Opec now sees the country adding 400,000 b/d in 2025 and 380,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d previously. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 37,000 b/d to 41.02mn b/d in March, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.8mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec cuts oil demand forecasts on tariffs impact
Opec cuts oil demand forecasts on tariffs impact
London, 14 April (Argus) — Opec has cut its oil demand growth forecasts by 150,000 b/d for this year and 2026, citing US trade tariffs. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down its 2025 oil consumption growth projection to 1.3mn b/d, from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. It said this was because of received data in the first three months of the year and "announced US tariffs." For 2026, the producer group now sees oil use growing by 1.28mn b/d, compared with 1.43mn b/d previously. It now sees demand at 105.05mn b/d in 2025, and at 106.33mn b/d in 2026. The outlook for oil demand and prices have sharply deteriorated since US President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements and the Opec+ alliance's decision to speed up planned output hikes, both decisions taken in early April. But Opec's oil demand revisions are relatively modest compared with those by some investment banks in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs slashed its oil demand forecast for this year to just 300,000 b/d. Morgan Stanley sees demand growth at 500,000 b/d in the second half of this year, half of its prior estimate. In terms of supply, Opec cut its non-Opec+ liquids growth forecast by 100,000 b/d for 2025 and for 2026, to 910,000 b/d and 900,000 b/d respectively. The US was the main driver for downward revision in both years: Opec now sees the country adding 400,000 b/d in 2025 and 380,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d previously. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 37,000 b/d to 41.02mn b/d in March, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.8mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs. The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month. Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year." "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said. The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month. The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March. The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result. Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty
EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty
Calgary, 10 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be nearly $7/bl lower this year than previously expected, with an ongoing trade war stifling global demand by nearly 500,000 b/d, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $63.88/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $6.80/bl from its March forecast. It will fall further to $57.48/bl in 2026, or $7.49/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices saw similar downward revisions and is now forecast at $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. The latest STEO was to be released on 8 April, but the EIA said it needed more time to rerun its models in light of last week's sweeping tariff action by US president Donald Trump and subsequent retaliation by China. The protectionist measures have led major banks to cut oil price forecasts amid growing concerns over a stagnating US economy. The EIA completed its analysis on 7 April meaning it did not incorporate the most recent developments, including Trump's 9 April pause on the highest levels of punitive tariffs against key US trading partners and an increase in Chinese tariffs . The latest forecast is "subject to significant uncertainty," said the EIA. Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is now expected to average 103.64mn b/d in 2025, lower by 490,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.68mn b/d, lower by 620,000 b/d. Global production meanwhile was lowered by to 104.1mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.35mn b/d for 2026. These are lower from the prior forecast by 70,000 b/d and 43,000 b/d, respectively. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.38mn b/d in 2025, lower by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 110,000 b/d at 20.49mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared to the March STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty
Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty
Sao Paulo, 9 April (Argus) — Colombian heavy sour crudes have reached their narrowest discounts to Ice Brent in at least four years, supported by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and tight supplies of similar grades. Castilla's discount to Ice Brent was $3.50/bl on Tuesday and Vasconia's was at $1.45/bl, $4.40/bl and $3.15/bl tighter than on 2 January, respectively. Castilla has not reached that narrow of a level against the benchmark since early 2021 and Vasconia has not since mid-2019. Outright prices were $60.89/bl for Vasconia and $58.84/bl for Castilla on Tuesday. Colombian crude discounts started to narrow in January after US president Donald Trump mentioned plans for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which produce competing heavy sours. Amid the uncertainty, buyers opted to secure supply that might not face tariffs, sources said, despite delays in tariffs implementation in early February and March. But a sweeping executive order last week excluded energy commodities from tariffs, as well as trade covered under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). Then on Wednesday Trump announced he will pause many of the tariffs on other products for 90 days, but no changes have been announced for energy imports . Despite Trump's tariff exemptions on crude imports to the US, tight availability of heavy supply for US Gulf refiners could still support relative values for Colombian grades. Subbing in Colombian crudes are seen as good substitutes for heavy crude from the US' nearest neighbors, especially Mexican supplies, which are widely used by US Gulf coast refiners. Additionally, Colombia's geographical location makes shipping to the US Gulf coast quicker and less costly compared with other South American countries, such as Ecuador, which also produces heavy sour crude. Further tightening heavy supply for Gulf coast refiners, the US government announced in March that the deadline for the end of Chevron's waiver to produce in Venezuela is 27 May, stopping the flow of crude to the US from its joint venture with state-owned PdV. Chevron brought about 222,000 b/d in Venezuelan crude to the US from January-November 2024. according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even with the volume representing a fraction of Gulf coast imports, it represents almost 30pc of total Colombian output. Its production reached 760,000 b/d in January, according to oil services chamber Campetrol, citing figures from hydrocarbons agency ANH. Further US tariffs on countries that take delivery of Venezuelan oil and natural gas could also make Colombian barrels more attractive, although Ecuadorean crudes are possible regional supply alternatives too. Meanwhile, Mexico's state-owned Pemex has faced quality issues with its crude production since late last year, which could lead to Gulf coast buyers turning to Colombian barrels as alternatives. Pemex acknowledged issues with salt and water levels in its crude in February but denied that international buyers have rejected shipments because of those concerns. Mexico's policy of expanding domestic refining has also contributed to a decline in crude exports to the US in recent years. Colombian crude values have also likely been supported by firmer competing Canadian crude values at the US Gulf coast. Canadian crude differentials have firmed in part because of upgrader turnaround season in Alberta's oil sands region, slowing production. The shutdown of the 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline from the region after a spill in North Dakota on 8 April also limited supply, buttressing prices. By João Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
IEA slashes 2025 global refinery runs growth forecast
London, 15 April (Argus) — The IEA has sharply lowered its forecast for refinery run growth this year, citing escalating tensions in global trade. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) published today, the energy watchdog said it expects growth in global crude runs of 340,000 b/d, down by 40pc from its previous forecast of 570,000 b/d. The IEA sees total global crude runs averaging 83.2mn b/d this year. Increased throughput from non-OECD countries still drives this year's growth, with the IEA expecting an increase of 830,000 b/d to 47.6mn b/d. The IEA has not adjusted this figure, as stronger runs in China through the first quarter of this year and higher Russian forecasts have offset downgrades in other non-OECD countries. Chinese crude runs in January and February averaged 15.2mn b/d, around 470,000 b/d higher than the IEA's forecast, it said. The body raised its Russian forecasts from the second quarter as Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have slowed. The IEA forecasts OECD refinery runs will fall by 490,000 b/d this year because of refinery closures, resulting in a cut from its previous forecast of 100,000 b/d, to 35.6mn b/d. OECD Europe runs are forecast to fall by 310,000 b/d on the year to 10.9mn b/d. OECD crude runs rose by 200,000 b/d on the year in February, 40,000 b/d higher than the IEA expected. Throughput was particularly weak in the first quarter of 2024, when extreme cold cut US run rates. In Mexico, state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery has still not reached stable operations having started up in mid-2024. The refinery ran no crude in January because of crude quality constraints, the IEA said, and February output there was 7,000 b/d. The IEA estimates the refinery's second crude unit will come online in the fourth quarter. The IEA said refiners will add more than 1mn b/d of global capacity in 2026, but it forecast growths in crude runs of only 300,000 b/d for that year. Assuming all new and expanded refineries come into operation by then, producers will have to cut runs at older refineries, it said. Capacity additions will be largest in Asia-Pacific. The IEA expects China's 320,000 b/d Panjin refinery to come online in the second half of 2026, and for producers to add capacity of 480,000 b/d in India. It sees growth in crude runs as focused on the Mideast Gulf, and runs across the OECD falling. By Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariff concerns drive US VLSFO to 4-year lows
Tariff concerns drive US VLSFO to 4-year lows
New York, 10 April (Argus) — Very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) monthly averages at four US ports have declined to their lowest levels since 2021, driven by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Houston and New Orleans VLSFO monthly averages dropped to $470/t and $491/t, respectively, so far in April. That is the lowest average for Houston since April 2021 and the lowest since February 2021 for New Orleans. New York and Philadelphia VLSFO averages are at $498/t and $510/t, respectively, the lowest since April 2021 for New York and May 2021 for Philadelphia. Bunker market participants have had mixed reactions to the price decline so far. According to one trader, some buyers have been trying to buy bunker fuel with delivery dates for one month from now, to lock in the lower prices, rather than one week out, which is typical when buying bunker fuel in the spot market. Another market contact said they have seen a mixture of elevated buying interest but also some buyers who will hold off waiting to see if prices continue to drop or if the volatility in prices ease as there have been large price swings within the same business day. "I have not seen anything this volatile since the start of the Russia vs Ukraine war," the trader said. Oil futures went up by almost 5pc on 9 April reversing losses from early that morning after US president Donald Trump paused higher punitive tariffs against key trading partners such as the EU and Japan and increased tariffs against China. The wild swing for intraday bunker prices on 9 April , which typically traces Brent crude, lowered market demand. By Luis Gronda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's diesel market eyes Trump and Petrobras
Brazil's diesel market eyes Trump and Petrobras
Sao Paulo, 10 April (Argus) — Tensions surrounding whiplash changes in trade policies favored by US president Donald Trump have created favorable conditions for foreign diesel imports into Brazil, just days after state-controlled Petrobras cut its refinery gate diesel prices. On 1 April, Petrobras cut wholesale diesel prices by 4.6pc, bringing the average price to R3,550/m³ (226.86¢/USG) from around R3.720/m³ (237.73¢/USG). Foreign diesel prices had been trending lower than Petrobras' prices for more than a month prior to the announcement. The competitiveness of imported diesel led some retailers to delay the withdrawal of fuel contracted with Petrobras, even at the cost of paying penalties. Petrobras' price reduction made the company's diesel more attractive on the domestic market, but the scenario was short-lived. Within about 24 hours, on 2 April, Trump unveiled so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on products imported from practically all US trading partners, triggering a strong global reaction, and setting the stage for a showdown with China. Investors' concern about recessionary risks clobbered prices for a wide range of commodities traded on the world's stock exchanges. Nymex ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures fell more than 10pc between 2-8 April, to a near four-year low. The volatility of the international markets has caused a turnaround in diesel prices on the Brazilian market. The heightened uncertainty led some participants to adopt a more cautious stance, waiting for prices to settle before making firmer decisions. "We are planning imports where we need to cover supply needs, without lengthening our position," said one trader. Between 2-8 April, the price indicator for ex-port land terminal diesel traded on the spot market at Santos, Paranagua, Suape and Itaqui ports fell in relation to Petrobras' basis by R140/m³, R230/m³, R102.5/m³ and R160/m³, respectively. The move followed international volatility caused by trade conflicts, as imported diesel responds to nearly 20pc of all the Brazilian domestic supply. The escalation of trade conflicts led to an interruption in talks between importers and suppliers last week, when both sides took the opportunity to assess the impact of developments on the fuel sector. Around 1.6mn m³ of imported diesel is expected to land in Brazil in April, according to data from shipping agencies and energy analytics firm Vortexa. If realized, the volume would represent a 33pc increase over the same period of 2024. To traders, the surging volume of product available on the domestic market and the wide variation in daily prices between different locations could offer good trading opportunities for importers. The Petrobras factor Market participants are also monitoring Petrobras' behavior in this new context. The price cut at the company's refineries and the subsequent reopening of arbitrage for imports has reinforced the perception that further price cuts are on the company's radar. Deeper cuts would be welcomed by Brazil's federal government, which is locked in a fight against creeping inflation. Rising prices are being blamed for the slipping popularity of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Diesel has a small influence on the extended national consumer price index IPCA portfolio, at around 0.24pc, but the view is that the fossil fuel has a significant indirect impact on the formation of food prices, which account for 21.87pc of the index. Despite favorable arbitrage for imported product in March, part of the market was surprised by Petrobras' latest price cut. There is a perception among traders that the predictability of the company's decisions has diminished. The company's management has indicated that it will not act while uncertainty in global markets persists. By Marcos Mortari Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?
What do tariffs mean for the global gas market?
Some countries are considering retaliatory tariffs, while others hope to reduce their trade deficit in order to negotiate lower rates London, 9 April (Argus) — Newly announced US tariffs on goods entering the country and some of the countermeasures already announced by large trade partners are unlikely to cause any direct disruptions to global gas markets. But the indirect effects on gas supply and demand may be huge, stemming from a weaker macroeconomic outlook, fuel substitution and inflationary pressures on infrastructure development. US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed a minimum 10pc tax on all foreign imports from 5 April,with much higher tariffs on selected countries that briefly came into force on 9 April, before Trump announced a 90-day pause. China is the only exception. It has announced retaliatory tariffs that could disrupt US energy exports, resulting in an escalation that has already brought up the respective levies to 125pc in the US and 84pc in China. These are unlikely to have any direct impact on LNG trade flows, as China had already stopped importing US LNG earlier this year. But disruptions to trade between the world's two largest economies may weigh heavily on manufacturing activity in China, in turn reducing industrial gas demand. And the ripple effects of disruptions to US LPG exports to China may alter fuel-switching economics in the region and beyond. Most other countries in Asia-Pacific have opted not to follow China's lead by retaliating against US tariffs, even though many have warned about the potential for long-term economic disruption. The Japanese government intends to negotiate a better tariff deal and is considering investing in the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project as part of wider efforts to reduce its trade surplus with the US. Countries in Asia-Pacific have been hit with some of the highest of Trump's targeted duties. The EU is keeping retaliatory measures on the table, but these are unlikely to include any levy on US LNG. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of its Russian pipeline supply, and imposing tariffs on energy imports would only reignite inflationary pressures that European countries have tried to curb over the past three years. The bloc says it is ready to negotiate on possibly increasing its US LNG imports to reduce its trade surplus and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agrees to do the same. But Trump says this offer is not enough, citing the EU's upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justifies a tariff response. Nerves of steel Much greater risks for gas markets may stem from rising infrastructure costs in the US' upstream and midstream sectors, particularly as a result of earlier tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum imports. These present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions this year. Metals account for up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. An LNG terminal can cost $5bn-25bn to build, depending on its size, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. US facilities can be built using some domestic metal, but higher prices for this may lead to construction and final investment decision delays for the country's planned liquefaction projects. US tariffs' primary effect on the domestic gas market stems from duties levied on non-energy goods used by the oil and gas industry, including steel and specialised pipeline components such as valves and compressors, which are imported from overseas. The US remains a net natural gas importer from Canada , but these flows are unlikely to be affected by trade tariffs given the lack of alternative supply sources available to some northern US states. US LNG project pipeline mn t/yr Project Capacity Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tokyo may use Alaska LNG as leverage in US tariff talks
Tokyo may use Alaska LNG as leverage in US tariff talks
Osaka, 9 April (Argus) — Tokyo will likely use the possibility of purchases from the US' proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project, as part of wider efforts to reduce the US' trade deficit with Japan, to negotiate for a better tariff deal. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities . The higher "reciprocal" taxes are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April, including Japan at 24pc. The Japanese government on 8 April held its first ministerial task force with prime minister Shigeru Ishiba attending, to discuss potential measures against new US tariffs. Details are still under consideration, but Ishiba is ready to use every possible method to mitigate the impact of looming US tariffs on the Japanese economy, as he sees this as a "national disaster". Japan, a long-standing ally of the US, is unlikely to respond in kind to the US tariff and will instead seek mutually beneficial solutions. Ishiba is aiming to present Trump with a package of measures across a wide range of issues, such as in the energy, agriculture, shipbuilding and automobile sectors, rather than piecemeal requests. The package could include Japan's stance on the Alaska LNG project and ethanol developments, Ishiba stated on 7 April when responding to questions in the Diet. Tokyo may use the Alaska LNG as part of its tariff negotiation, as buying more US LNG could ease Japan's trade surplus against the US. The trade imbalance between Japan and the US stood at ¥8.64 trillion in 2024, equivalent to about $58.6bn at current exchange rates, Japanese customs data show. Japan's LNG purchases from the US rose by 15pc on the year to 6.34mn t in 2024, accounting for nearly 10pc of the country's total LNG imports. Japan has committed to continuing strengthening energy security and co-operation with the US, as well as South Korea, leveraging US LNG along with other energy sources and technologies in a mutually beneficial manner, the countries said in a joint statement after the trilateral foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels on 3 April, just after Trump announced the baseline 10pc taxes on 2 April. Ishiba had already mentioned the idea of ramping up purchases of US LNG, as well as ethanol, ammonia and other resources, when he visited Trump in Washington in February . But he emphasised the importance of stable and reasonable prices for such LNG imports. Alaska LNG has made little progress in recent years and is yet to secure any offtake agreements. But it has drawn interest, after Trump devoted one of his first executive orders to the development of Alaskan energy. South Korea's energy minister expressed the country's interest in the project during a visit in late March , while Taiwan's state-owned CPC signed an initial agreement to invest in and purchase LNG from the project, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs . Auto deal But it remains unclear if a possible purchase of Alaska LNG alone would satisfy Washington and help reduce tariffs. The Trump administration has expressed strong dissatisfaction against Japanese non-tariff barriers on US car deliveries. "US automakers face a variety of non-tariff barriers that impede access to the Japanese and Korean automotive markets, including non-acceptance of certain US standards, duplicative testing and certification requirements, and transparency issues", the US government said on 2 April. Japan imported around 23,000 units of passenger vehicles from the US in 2023, according to the industry group Japan Automobile Importers Association, and this is near one-tenth of all deliveries from European nations. Tokyo appears to be struggling to find breakthrough solutions on this decades-long bilateral economic issue. There must be a variety of reasons on why American cars are not coming into the Japanese market, while Japanese cars are selling well in the US, said the Japanese minister for trade and industry Yoji Muto on 8 April. "We still need more time to figure that out." Ishiba on 8 April appointed the minister of state for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Ryosei Akazawa, as a negotiator for the trade talks with the US government. By Motoko Hasegawa and Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight
US faults EU carbon fee during tariff fight
Washington, 8 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing the EU's upcoming tariff on carbon-intensive imports as one of the "unfair trade practices" that justified a tariff response. Trump has said a 20pc tariff on most EU goods and a higher tariff on many other key trading partners — set to take effect after midnight — are "reciprocal" to other countries' tariffs and non-tariff barriers, even though those tariffs are calculated based on each country's trade deficits and imports with the US. Trump has yet to even identify which trade policies he wants other countries to change before he would withdraw tariffs his administration expects will raise $600bn/yr in new revenue. But the US Trade Representative's office, in a social media post on Monday made in "honor" of Trump's tariffs, identified the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — which will collect a carbon-based levy on imports such as steel, cement and fertilizer — as one of the examples of what it sees as an unfair trading practice. The Trump administration estimates $4.7bn/yr of US exports would be affected by the CBAM, which is set to take effect in 2026. "These EU regulations undermine fair competition, penalizing US companies while providing advantages to EU-based competitors," the US Trade Representative's office wrote in a series of posts on Tuesday that also criticized India and Thailand for imposing import restrictions on ethanol produced in the US. White House officials say more than 70 countries have approached the administration seeking deals on the tariffs since they were announced nearly a week ago. But with just hours before the tariffs take effect, Trump has yet to announce any definitive agreements to withdraw the tariffs. Instead, he has rejected offers from countries to zero out some of their tariffs. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Monday said the EU was "ready to negotiate" on tariffs, and would zero out its tariffs on industrial imports if the US agreed to do the same. But Trump on Monday said that offer was not enough. "We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn, and it's gonna disappear fast," Trump said. "One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they're gonna have to buy our energy from us." Today, Trump said he had a "great call" with South Korea's acting president Han Duck-soo that created the "probability of a great DEAL for both countries." Trump cited a potential agreement that might include large-scale purchases of US LNG and investments tied to the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG export project. Trump and his cabinet believe the tariffs will align with a goal to achieve "energy dominance" and increase the amount of US energy exported abroad. "At the end of the day, we're going to have growing American exports and reindustrialize the country," US energy secretary Chris Wright said today during an interview on CNBC. Trump's tariffs have already caused a selloff in equities and, according to many analysts on Wall Street, a higher likelihood of a recession. Oil prices have dropped because of a "sudden change in the economic outlook, whereas everyone just honestly 10 days ago was expecting modest but steady positive growth in the US", non-profit group Center for Strategic and International Studies' senior fellow Clayton Seigle said today. Republicans have largely backed Trump in his imposition of tariffs, with the hope the tariffs will be lifted as part of trade negotiations. But some Republicans have started criticizing the rationale for the tariff policy. "Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?" US senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) said in a hearing today with the US trade representative Jamieson Greer. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
New tariffs could upend US tallow imports: Correction
Corrects description of options for avoiding feedstock tariffs in 12th paragraph. Story originally published 3 April. New York, 10 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a far-greater collection of charges on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Some tariffs are eligible for drawbacks, meaning that producers could potentially recover tariffs they paid on feedstocks for fuel that is ultimately exported. And multiple biofuel producers are located in foreign-trade zones, a US program that works similarly to the duty drawbacks, and have applied for permission to avoid some tariffs on imported feedstocks for fuel eventually shipped abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
EU exempts most LLDPE imports from retaliatory tariffs
London, 10 April (Argus) — Most linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) imports will be exempt from EU retaliatory tariffs should the bloc go ahead with countermeasures against the US, according to a draft list of products seen by Argus . The EU has put the retaliatory tariffs on hold for now, after US president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is pausing his planned "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The European Commission has yet to publish the final list of US products that would be subject to any countermeasures, but before Trump's surprise move, the HS code 39014000 was removed. The list was approved by a majority vote of EU member states on Wednesday . Other HS codes of PE grades were included in the draft list and are earmarked for 25pc tariffs. It is now uncertain if and when the EU tariffs might be implemented. Prior to Trump's u-turn, 15 May was the likely date for EU tariffs on US PE imports. But "everything is paused," European Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill told Argus . LLDPE imports into the EU are categorised under the HS codes 39014000 and 39011010. The former made up just over half of all PE imports to the EU from the US in 2024, while the latter accounted for less than 12pc. The EU's PE imports from the US totalled 1.8mn t last year. Market participants told Argus that the EU will remain dependant on LLDPE imports from the US for specific grades, which include LLDPE butene and metallocene LLDPE. The UK also excluded US-origin LLDPE imports falling under the HS code 390140 from its provisional list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. By Sam Hashmi and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs
Houston, 4 April (Argus) — US polyethylene (PE) traders are concerned that retaliatory tariffs announced this week by China and being considered by the European Union will close the door to two of the biggest markets for US resin exports. China announced today it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, while the EU is in the process of finalizing countermeasures this week, all in response to widespread tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April. "This closes off China," said one US export trader. "And it looks like a full stop in Europe too." The US exported 2.4mn t of PE to China in 2024, representing 16.8pc of total US PE exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. Exports to the EU totaled 2.26mn t, representing 15pc of all US exports. US PE exports in 2024 totaled 14.2mn t, with exports representing 47pc of total sales last year. During the previous Trump administration, China provided waivers for certain tariffs, including on some PE grades. Some market participants have said that may be possible again, while others have said they see it as less likely, as China has become more self-sufficient, and has other alternative suppliers, such as the Middle East. "(China) is in a better position to impose tariffs on PE today than they were in 2018," said one North American PE producer. It will be difficult for US producers to make up for the loss of market share in China and the EU, which could result in producers needing to slow operating rates. For now, markets in Africa, Latin America and southeast Asia, remain open for US material, but traders are concerned that other top trading partners could also retaliate against the US, closing off additional markets. "There are not enough places to go with this stuff," the trader said. With limited export opportunities, the North American PE producer agreed that production would likely need to slow to keep material from backing up in the domestic market and causing domestic prices to fall. "The last time we saw tariff action from China, there was an impact on the domestic market," the producer said. "Pricing went down." For this week, US PE export pricing has held fairly steady as the market absorbs the tariff news. But market participants said they believe prices could move down in the coming weeks if production is not slowed. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
US MAP-DAP premium primed to return on tariffs
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — The period of MAP and DAP prices trading near parity will be short-lived because newly-imposed US import tariffs could amplify MAP supply woes, market participants told Argus . MAP and DAP prices have traded in close proximity since early January, diverting from the significant MAP premium seen last spring and summer when a surplus of DAP was imported into the US. After limited MAP barge trading in March, activity accelerated at Nola this week as it became clearer that all non-North American phosphate imports would face at least 10pc import tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump starting last week. The Nola MAP price was assessed at a midpoint of $636.50/st fob this week, up by $9/st from last week, while DAP was assessed $12.50/st higher at $632.50/st fob Nola. Despite the "reciprocal" tariffs on certain phosphate producing countries being lowered to a universal 10pc this week by Trump for 90 days — in line with the original tariff imposed on other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Australia last week — the remaining levy is still enough to deter vessels from coming to Nola, sources said. In response, the Nola MAP price has averaged a $5.75/st premium to the Nola DAP price for April so far, flipping from a $3.88/st average discount in March. That is still a far cry from October 2024, when the Nola MAP price averaged a $61.45/st premium over the Nola DAP. From August through November, the Nola MAP price was 13pc higher on average than DAP. US market participants expect the premium to expand in the coming months as MAP is the preferred product of most farmers during the fall application season, potentially impacting buying decisions for that period. The US from July through February has imported 759,000 metric tonnes (t) of DAP, down by 26pc from the same period last year, according to US Census Bureau data. This lapse in imports for the start of 2025 was an initial driver in DAP's rising premium over MAP. In comparison, MAP imports for the same period have totaled roughly 853,000t, up by just 5pc from the year before. But at least 290,000 t of MAP will need to be brought into the US between now and the start of the summer to equal out with the tonnage imported for the full 2023-24 fertilizer year ahead of fall applications. That is a task that may not be easily achieved given the new tariff on most phosphate imports. One buyer this week said they could consider switching usual MAP demand toward an alternative NPS product heading into October and November given the difficult supply outlook for the US. "We are very much in wait and see mode, trying to see how tariffs evolve and how it works its way into the market in terms of price," another buyer said. The significant premium MAP held last fall also limited overall phosphate applications conducted by farmers, therefore raising the bar for the amount of phosphate fertilizer farmers will need to put into the ground later this year to replenish soil nutrients. By Taylor Zavala US DAP/MAP barge prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
London, 3 April (Argus) — Nearly every country that sends fertilizer products to the US will be hit with fresh import duties after President Donald Trump yesterday announced reciprocal tariff policies that are likely to increase nutrient prices in the US. According to the White House administration, a baseline 10pc tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported into the US excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at a 25pc rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a reduced rate of 10pc. Imports of goods from other nations will begin paying the baseline 10pc rate on 5 April, while roughly 60 countries were given more specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have placed on US goods. The US imports a significant amount of fertilizer products from other countries to supplement limited domestic production capabilities. Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Tunisia, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago are well known names in the fertilizer market as major producers that ship a large amount of product to the US. Under the new sweeping tariff policy Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and Tobago and Australia can expect a 10pc duty on all imports sent to the US, while Israel can expect a 17pc duty and Jordan will face a 20pc duty. A 28pc tariff will be applied to imports from Tunisia. Russia is also a major supplier of fertilizers to the US and a reciprocal tariff does not apply to the country. But there is uncertainty as to whether Russia is exempt from the universal 10pc rate applied to other countries. Phosphates Countervailing duties largely blocking Russian and Moroccan phosphates have enabled Saudi Arabia to grow its share of US DAP/MAP imports to 45pc in 2024, according to GTT data. They also opened the door to non-traditional suppliers including Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, which together accounted for 21pc of US DAP/MAP imports last year. Australia has been a regular supplier to the US, averaging 9pc of imports over the past five years — although this fell to 4pc in 2024. The base 10pc tariff applied to Morocco will add to the countervailing duties in place and act as more of a deterrent. Still, customs data show that 10pc of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last year. Mexico supplied 318,000t of DAP/MAP to the US last year, accounting for 14pc of total imports. But the 25pc tariff imposed a month ago will probably stifle this trade flow. MAP barge prices in the US are currently equivalent to the mid-$660s/t cfr Nola. Latest MAP sales to Brazil were at $660/t cfr but indications are now reaching $680/t cfr. After these latest tariffs come into effect on 5 April, US buyers will have to pay more to secure phosphate supply, otherwise cargoes will be drawn to more attractive markets, such as Latin America. Potassium-based products, phos rock escape tariffs The White House also confirmed in an annex that some goods will be exempt from these latest tariffs including certain critical minerals. Goods that will be spared include a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate. Trump last month included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals, and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects . The majority of the US' MOP supply is imported, with 98pc/yr coming from other countries, and 85pc of that from Canada, according to TFI data. The US typically imports 11mn-13mn t/yr of MOP, although GTT data show that the US imported close to 14mn t of MOP in 2024. USMCA still effective Tariffs on North American countries Mexico and Canada will continue within the status quo of an executive order issued in early March. All products covered under the USMCA free trade agreement will continue to be imported into the US without tariffs. USMCA compliant products include wholly created goods in Mexico or Canada, such as sulphur, MOP, ammonia and other nitrogen fertilizers, but goods produced with inputs that come from other countries, such as phosphate fertilizers manufactured in Mexico, are at greater risk of being tariffed, depending on how rules of origin outlined in the USMCA are enforced. Phosphate fertilizers produced in Mexico use imported phosphate rock as well as some imported ammonia, while the same products manufactured in Canada, for example, use domestically produced rock. The US fertilizer market is currently barrelling towards the final weeks of the spring application season, where nutrients are put into the ground as crop planting continues. Therefore most fertilizer purchasing for the spring has now taken place. But with the new tariffs applying to the majority of nutrient imports into the US, domestic prices and barge trade activity could accelerate above the norm as the market scurries to secure product before prices move to even more unfavourable levels. By Taylor Zavala, Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson New US import tariffs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
Limited impact on US agriculture from China tariffs
London, 9 April (Argus) — China will add an additional 50pc tariff on US goods, raising the total to 84pc from 10 April, the country's finance ministry said today, but agricultural markets could be largely sheltered from the fallout, because China has already been showing limited demand for US grains and oilseeds since December . Tariffs will rise to 84pc for US goods arriving in China, matching US tariffs on imports from China. But purchases of US-origin agricultural products from private importers to China has already wound down since December, meaning that any rises in duties are unlikely to put any further pressure on China-bound shipments. Just 9,900t of US corn arrived in China between December 2024 and February 2025, the latest available customs data show, compared with 1.4mn t a year earlier. Soybean sales have been higher across the same period, with 13.4mn t arriving between December and February this year, compared with 8.8mn t a year ago. But most private buyers have refrained from making new US-origin purchases since December. By Megan Evans Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell
New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Ags prices caught up in tariff fallout
Paris, 3 April (Argus) — Grain and oilseed traders were buffeted by volatile futures markets and exchange rates on Wednesday. But the full impact of the tariffs imposed by the US — a major net exporter of wheat, corn and soy — is only likely to emerge once other governments' responses become clear. Wheat, corn and soybean futures were trading lower on the day when the Chicago Board of Trade opened on 3 April, the day after the US announced a swathe of import tariffs . But corn and wheat futures contracts began to recover hours later. Canada and Mexico, which made headlines in the initial wave of tariffs from Trump's administration, were on the sidelines on 2 April. Both are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This means Mexico could remain an important outlet for US corn and wheat — for now. US corn sellers have relied heavily on Mexico to shore up sales this marketing year. Of the 54mn t of current-crop US corn sold for export this marketing year (September-August) as of 27 March, 19mn t has been for Mexico, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show. USDA sees US corn exports hitting 62mn t this marketing year. Impact on Europe and Asia Euronext wheat, corn and rapeseed futures also began trading down on the day. But a sharp fall in the value of the dollar against the euro meant bids and offers for EU wheat discussed in the physical market in dollar terms held more or less steady early today. The Interactive Data Corp exchange rate closed at €0.90630 to the dollar at midday in London on 3 April — the lowest since October 2024. Ukrainian corn sellers are under particular pressure from a drop in the price of US commodities on certain markets, but could also stand to gain from a halt in deliveries of US corn to importers in Asia, before Brazil begins shipping its safrinha crop in July. Ukrainian corn typically competes with the US in Mediterranean markets, notably Spain, and in China. But Ukrainian corn has not been competitive against US corn recently — in the month since 3 March , when the US doubled tariffs on China from the 10pc introduced on 4 February, Ukrainian corn fob prices' premium to US corn fob Gulf has climbed, and in late March it hit its highest in Ukraine's current October-September marketing year, Argus -assessed prices show. But there is no guarantee that buyers will pay up, at least not immediately. Chinese buyers have already distanced themselves from US corn and soybeans this marketing year. Chinese buyers took little notice of Ukrainian corn sellers floating offers at above $270/t cif China on 2 April, immediately after the US announced an additional 34pc tariff on imports from China — bringing the actual rate to 54pc — and Beijing vowed retaliation . Chinese importers bid for Ukrainian corn in the $250s/t cif for July-August loading last week . Chinese buyers could be exposed to hikes in Brazilian soybean prices — something that might be more likely if EU buyers book more soybeans from Brazil at the expense of US cargoes. US soybean sales to China have already begun to slow. Chinese crushers have avoided US soybeans since December because of uncertainty over trade relations. Shipments to China dominated US vessel line-ups in late March, with exporters sending 641,000t to China on 21-27 March alone. Some 600,000t of corn was sold but not yet shipped as of 27 March, compared with 1.6mn t still to ship at the same point last month, weekly USDA data show. By Claudia Jackson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey
Houston, 11 April (Argus) — US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs. The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month. Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year." "Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said. The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month. The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March. The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result. Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update
Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update
Adds details from earnings call throughout. Houston, 9 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty. "Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call. Delta said it hoped the growing US tariff war with the world would be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee. "If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," chief executive Ed Bastion said in an earnings call today. In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, Bastion said. Delta expects revenue in the second quarter of 2025 to be either 2pc higher or 2pc lower from the year earlier period with continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international bookings offsetting softness in domestic and standard flights. Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners were implemented on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes went into effect today, although at midday Wednesday he announced a 90-day pause on most of the higher tariffs, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports even higher. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. Confidence craters in 1Q Corporate travel started the year with momentum, but a reduction in corporate confidence stalled growth in February and March, Delta said. For the first quarter, corporate sales were up by low-single digits compared to the prior year, with strength led by the banking and technology sectors. The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period. Delta said it has seen "a significant drop off in bookings" out of Canada amid the trade disputes with that country which started earlier than the broader US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexico is "a mixed bag," the company said. Delta is considering reducing capacity levels in Mexico and Canada in the future. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty
Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty
Houston, 9 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty. "Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call. Delta said it hoped the growing tariff war woudl be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee. In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, chief executive Ed Bastion said. The company reported a profit of $298mn in the first quarter of 2025, up slightly from $288mn in the first quarter of 2024. The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
S Korea unveils auto industry support after US tariffs
S Korea unveils auto industry support after US tariffs
Singapore, 9 April (Argus) — South Korea has unveiled planned emergency measures to support its automobile industry given the sweeping US tariffs, turning towards its domestic market and outwards to the "global south" to generate demand. South Korea exported nearly $127.8bn of goods to the US in 2024,accounting for about 18.7pc of its total exports. About almost $34.7bn were from passenger automotives. It will provide around 3 trillion South Korean won ($2bn) of new emergency liquidity support, expand its policy finance by W2 trillion to a total of W15 trillion and hand out more car export support. South Korea will also extend the electric vehicle (EV) corporate discount subsidy policy until the end of the year, and it will now support between 30-80pc of EVs' price, up from previously 20-40pc. A focus on the domestic market will help respond to lower export volumes given the US' tariffs, said the country's trade and industry ministry (Motie). The country will cut the special consumption tax on new car purchases from 5pc to 3.5pc until June, while not ruling out any other necessary additional support. It will also push its public sector, public institutions and local governments to buy "business vehicles" within the first half of 2025, which will likely buoy eco-friendly vehicle sales. Eco-friendly vehicles in South Korea refer to hybrids, battery EVs, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen-fuelled vehicles. Eco-friendly vehicle domestic sales surged by 50pc on the year to about 60,350 units in February, while exports rose by 32pc to almost 69,000 units. It is also turning to new "global south" markets by offering an extra budget on export vouchers and trade insurance support until the end of 2025, citing its agreements and negotiations with countries such as the UAE, Mexico, the Philippines and Ecuador. The combined market share of three South Korean battery firms — LG Energy Solution (LGES), SK On and Samsung SDI — on global EV battery installations in has further declined in January-February, according to the latest data from South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research. They now take up 17.7pc of the global market share, down by almost 5.5 percentage points compared to a year earlier. "It has become also important for K-trio to come up with strategic measures to increase their local production in North America and diversify raw material suppliers," said SNE, citing the US tariffs. LGES last year said it is looking to produce energy storage system cells in the US through its subsidiary LGES Vertech from 2025. SK On earlier this week told Argus that the tariffs will have "limited" potential impact on its business, with its manufacturing facility in the US state of Georgia, SK Battery America, supplying batteries for its US sales volumes . By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
