Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

Market: Agriculture, Chemicals, Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
04/04/25

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout.

"The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia.

The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said.

"We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy."

As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc.

The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week.

Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay.

A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month.

By Stephen Cunningham

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07/04/25

Oil, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect: Update

Updates with latest oil prices, stock market declines Singapore, 7 April (Argus) — Oil futures and stock markets fell sharply again on Monday after the first tranche of US import tariffs came into force. Crude oil futures fell by almost 5pc, with US benchmark crude WTI futures dropping below $60/bl to a new four-year low. Stock markets in Asia and Europe also dropped sharply. Markets in China — which were closed for a holiday at the end of last week — dropped by around 10pc, while Japanese and South Korean exchanges fell by up to 8pc. The sell-off in crude futures accelerated when markets in Europe opened, in line with big drops in the continent's stock markets. Germany's Dax stock exchange fell by as much as 10pc, while the UK FTSE 100 dropped by up to 6pc. Shares in oil majors BP and Shell were up to 9pc lower. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities . What Trump has described as "reciprocal" tariffs targeting some of the US' biggest trade partners are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April. Trump has given no indication that he will cancel or postpone the tariffs, despite the market turmoil in recent days, although he has held out prospects of negotiated reductions with some countries. The president denied on 6 April that he is crashing the markets deliberately. "But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," he told reporters. China announced its own 34pc tariffs on all US imports late on 4 April, adding to the pressure on financial markets. Beijing will continue to take "resolute measures" to protect its interests, state-owned media reported over the weekend. China is the only major US trading partner that has so far retaliated against the US tariffs. Several other countries in Asia have said they do not plan to retaliate or have asked Trump to delay the tariffs. Benchmark crude futures have now fallen by up to 18pc since Trump announced his tariffs. Crude oil came under additional pressure on 7 April after Saudi Arabia's state-controlled producer Saudi Aramco reduced its official formula prices for May-loading cargoes, including particularly sharp cuts for buyers in Asia. The front-month June Brent contract on Ice fell by 4.7pc to a low of $62.51/bl. The Nymex front-month May crude contract fell to $58.95/bl, the lowest since April 2021. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Oil futures, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect

07/04/25

News

07/04/25

Oil futures, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect

Singapore, 7 April (Argus) — Oil futures and stock markets fell sharply again in early Asian trading on Monday, after the first tranche of US import tariffs came into force. Crude futures fell by more than 4pc after markets opened. US benchmark crude WTI futures fell below $60/bl to a new four-year low. Regional stock markets also dropped sharply. Markets in China — which were closed for a holiday at the end of last week — dropped by almost 10pc, while Japanese and South Korean exchanges fell by up to 6pc. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities . What Trump has described as "reciprocal" tariffs targeting some of the US' biggest trade partners are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April. Trump has given no indication that he will cancel or postpone the tariffs, despite the market turmoil in recent days, although he has held out prospects of negotiated reductions with some countries. The president denied on 6 April that he is crashing the markets deliberately. "But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," he told reporters. China announced its own 34pc tariffs on all US imports late on 4 April, adding to the pressure on financial markets. Beijing will continue to take "resolute measures" to protect its interests, state-owned media reported over the weekend. China is the only major US trading partner that has so far retaliated against the US tariffs. Several other countries in Asia have said they do not plan to retaliate or have asked Trump to delay the tariffs. Benchmark crude futures have now fallen by up to 18pc since Trump announced his tariffs. Crude oil came under additional pressure on 7 April after Saudi Arabia's state-controlled producer Saudi Aramco reduced its official formula prices for May-loading cargoes, including particularly sharp cuts for buyers in Asia. The front-month June Brent contract on Ice fell by 3.9pc to a low of $63.01/bl soon after trading opened in Asia on 7 April, before later recovering slightly to trade 2.8pc lower at 10:45am Singapore time (3:45am GMT). The Nymex front-month May crude contract fell to $59.38/bl, the lowest since April 2021, before narrowing its losses slightly. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

04/04/25

News

04/04/25

WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

Adds end of day changes to stock markets, WTI, Treasuries Calgary, 4 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by more than 7pc after China retaliated against the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened. May Nymex WTI fell by $4.96/bl to $61.99/bl, the lowest since 26 April 2021, and is down by $9.72/bl over the most recent two days. Turmoil also continued for a second day in equity markets with the S&P 500 down by 6pc, the Nasdaq down by 5.8pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 5.5pc from the day prior, which saw similiar losses, wiping out nearly a year of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Trillions of dollars in value were wiped out. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to end the day just above 4pc, its lowest since October, as Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safe haven in the dollar-denominated notes. Treasury yields and prices move counter to each other. The equity selloff persisted on mounting fears of a recession after US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of global trading partners for imports into the US. China hit back on Friday with a 34pc tariff of its own against the US from 10 April, driving away any hope by investors for a rebound after a selloff the day before. WTI fell by as much as 9pc during Friday's session after China's retaliation, bottoming out at $60.45/bl. The gloomy economic outlook overshadowed a strong job report that showed the US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth. Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster , upping output in May by 411,000 b/d. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

04/04/25

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04/04/25

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

London, 4 April (Argus) — Egyptian rebar has cleared at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda under a product code that sits under a different EU quota category, a mill test certificate sent to rebar buyers and obtained by Argus shows. The documentation shows a parcel of steel products with the properties and specifications of rebar registered under HS code 722830, which is for hot-rolled bar, not rebar. The material is supplied by an Egyptian steel mill, and the mill test certificate obtained by Argus contains the assertion "HS code for rebar is: 72 28 30 69 00", followed by the signature of a senior quality engineer. The mill's website indicates it produces rebar, rebar in spools and rebar in coil, which fall respectively under the rebar and wire rod EU import quotas. Hot-rolled bar under the HS code 72283069 falls under category 12 for "non-alloy and other alloy merchant bars and light sections", for which there is currently no import restriction on Egyptian material. A trading company is thought to have discharged at least 17,000t of rebar and rebar in coils at Klaipeda on 28 March, after loading at the Egyptian port of Alexandria on 24 February. But it is not clear how much material in total has passed through customs or under which HS codes. As of 1 April, the EU's Egyptian rebar quota is capped at about 27,500t, after previously having had no limitation within the "other countries" allocation of about 138,000t. Some market participants estimated that there were about 80,000t of Egyptian rebar waiting to clear at EU ports on 1 April, but only about 30,000t cleared under the rebar quota on the first day, according to market participants, meaning duties paid by companies clearing material on that day will not be as high as feared. Trade data also show that Bulgaria imported 17,000t of hot-rolled bar from Egypt under HS 72283069 in January 2025, nearly three times as much as the whole EU imported in the full year of 2024 or 2023, a sign that companies are increasingly keen to seek ways around EU safeguards as they tighten. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

04/04/25

News

04/04/25

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

Washington, 4 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump held out prospects of a negotiated reduction in high tariffs targeting key US trading partners while insisting that import taxes are here to say. Trump via his social media platform said today he spoke with Vietnam Communist Party leader To Lam, who promised to cut their tariffs to zero on US products. Under the plan Trump unveiled on 2 April, US imports from Vietnam will be subject to a 46pc tariff. Trump late Thursday told reporters that a deal on tariffs is possible "if somebody said that we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal." He mentioned a possible deal with China over the sale of social platform TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance. "We have a situation with Tiktok where China will probably say, we'll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariff?", Trump said. The Trump administration is forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company, but Beijing must approve the sale. "The tariffs give us great power to negotiate," Trump said. But China's commerce ministry today unveiled a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, and vowed that no exemptions will be granted, unlike in its previous round of tit-for-tat tariffs on US commodities. Trump on 2 April announced a 10pc baseline tax on all foreign imports starting on 5 April, while many major US trading partners would be subject to an even higher tax beginning on 9 April. Imports from the EU would be subject to a 20pc tariff beginning on 9 April and imports from China subject to a 34pc tariff in addition to the previously imposed 20pc tariffs. "CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!", Trump said on social media after the announcement from Beijing. Trump's executive order exempted energy commodities and many critical minerals from new tariffs, as well as trade already covered under the US Mexico Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). But oil and stock markets continued to slide today as economists and investors concluded that the US tariffs and potential foreign counter-measures would lead to a protracted trade war and reduce economic growth globally. The latest tariffs are likely to cut global growth rates by 0.5 percentage points and reduce US GDP growth by 1pc in 2025-26, analysts with investment bank Standard Chartered said in a note to clients today. Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell, speaking at a conference in Arlington, Virginia, today, warned that the latest bout of tariffs will lead to "higher inflation and slower growth." IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva issued a similar warning on Thursday evening. Trump retorted via his social media platform that "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates." What's next? Despite touting possible deals to avoid high tariffs, Trump also said today that investors planning to move manufacturing to the US should expect no changes in his tariff policies. Trump's cabinet also struggled to articulate what comes next, with commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Trump would not lift the tariffs announced this week, while treasury secretary Scott Bessent said deals over tariff levels were possible. Secretary of state Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters on a trip to Brussels, Belgium, said that "it's not fair to say that the economies are crashing — markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the US. "The markets will adjust business around the world, including in trade," Rubio said. "They just need to know what the rules are." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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