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Widening blackouts stifle Venezuela oil production

  • : Crude oil, Electricity, Oil products
  • 18/11/01

Frequent blackouts are thwarting Venezuelan state-owned PdV's plans to revive oil production that is now hurtling toward 1mn b/d by year´s end.

On paper, state-owned utility Corpoelec has 36.3GW of thermal and hydro generation capacity nationwide, but only 12.5GW was operational in the first half of October, according to an internal electricity ministry report obtained by Argus.

The 15 October report indicates that almost two-thirds of Corpoelec's installed generation capacity was out of service because of damaged equipment and chronic shortages of natural gas and diesel feedstock.

Officially, the energy ministry and PdV routinely maintain that oil operations are unaffected by the daily power outages that are affecting all corners of the Opec country.

A ministry official said privately that "more frequent and longer-lasting blackouts are hurting PdV's operations and delaying plans to raise production by up to 1mn b/d, because we can't produce more oil without power."

The problem is especially acute in northwestern Venezuela around Lake Maracaibo.

PdV's upstream and downstream operations in the western division, which includes the 940,000 b/d CRP refining complex in Falcon state, are most exposed because they are further from the 10GW Guri dam that supplies most of Venezuela´s power. PdV´s eastern and Orinoco divisions are also impacted. "The chronic absence of reliable power supplies has become a critical problem in all of PdV's core operating areas," a ministry official said.

PdV lost most of its independent power supply in 2010, when late president Hugo Chavez ordered the integration of PdV´s power generation assets, such as the 300MW Genevapca thermal plant near the 940,000 b/d CRP refining complex, with Corpoelec's national grid.

Chavez argued that the move would fortify the grid, reduce outages and distribute power more efficiently. Instead, integration made PdV vulnerable to the structural failings of the whole system, the ministry official said.

In mid-October, the Guri dam, formally known as the Simon Bolivar complex and located on the Lower Caroni river in Bolivar state, was generating only 5.2GW. Nine of 20 turbines were broken and at least three more were at risk of imminent shutdown, the ministry report says.

Corpolec says it has 4GW of installed thermal capacity dedicated to supplying Caracas, but only 880MW of that capacity was operational as of mid-October.

Corpoelec has over 3.2GW of thermal capacity in Carabobo state, including the aged 2.6GW Planta Centro thermal complex on the coast near PdV's 140,000 b/d El Palito refinery. Planta Centro is only generating about 400MW, using fuel oil.

Corpoelec's thermal assets total almost 4GW in the western state of Zulia where PdV wants to boost crude output from less than 300,000 b/d to almost 1mn b/d within three years. Zulia as of 14 October only reported about 600MW of operational thermal capacity, making the oil-rich state almost completely dependent on hydropower transmitted over 780mi from Guri on a poorly maintained 750kV transmission system.

A nearly month-long statewide outage in Zulia in August 2018 was caused by a fire on the 5.4mi General Rafael Urdaneta bridge crossing Lake Maracaibo that destroyed up to a half-mile section of dual 230kV transmission lines attached to the bridge.

Corpoelec has not yet finished repairs because it has not been able to import needed parts, blaming US sanctions for the delay.

As a result, Zulia remains subject to statewide rationing of up to 18 hours a day in some areas.

The ministry report blames over 12 statewide blackouts in Zulia this year on equipment failures in the transmission system, mainly overloaded transformer explosions at Corpoelec's Arenosa substation in Carabobo and the Horqueta substation in nearby Aragua state.

The report identifies the two critical substations as the grid´s "most unstable components".

The substations affect supplies from Guri to Zulia, the Andes region, the country's central region and Caracas, a Corpoelec official said. "If Arenosa and Horqueta are not operating optimally, even minor incidents will destabilize the entire grid, resulting in multi-state blackouts."

Corpoelec's transmission system, which includes seven substations and over 1,367mi of power lines, needs to be completely rebuilt, a project that would include replacing all of the existing 750kV transmission lines and repairing seven substations, the Corpoelec official said.

Corpoelec's 8GW transmission system eventually needs to be expanded to at least 13GW to accommodate incremental hydropower supplies Corpoelec expects after Guri's turbines are repaired and the 2.16GW Manuel Piar (Tocoma) hydro complex below Guri is completed.

Corpoelec engineers conservatively calculate the cost of repairing Guri's turbines, completing Tocoma and upgrading the transmission system in a period of five years at more than $10bn.


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24/11/04

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

US railroad-labor contract talks heat up

Washington, 4 November (Argus) — Negotiations to amend US rail labor contracts are becoming increasingly complicated as railroads split on negotiating tactics, potentially stalling operations at some carriers. The multiple negotiating pathways are reigniting fears of 2022, when some unions agreed to new contracts and others were on the verge of striking before President Joe Biden ordered them back to work . Shippers feared freight delays if strikes occurred. This round, two railroads are independently negotiating with unions. Most of the Class I railroads have traditionally used the National Carriers' Conference Committee to jointly negotiate contracts with the nation's largest labor unions. Eastern railroad CSX has already reached agreements with labor unions representing 17 job categories, which combined represent nearly 60pc of its unionized workforce. "This is the right approach for CSX," chief executive Joe Hinrichs said last month. Getting the national agreements on wages and benefits done will then let CSX work with employees on efficiency, safety and other issues, he said. Western carrier Union Pacific is taking a similar path. "We look forward to negotiating a deal that improves operating efficiency, helps provide the service we sold to our customers" and enables the railroad to thrive, it said. Some talks may be tough. The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET) and Union Pacific are in court over their most recent agreement. But BLET is meeting with Union Pacific chief executive Jim Vena next week, and with CSX officials the following week. Traditional group negotiation is also proceeding. BNSF, Norfolk Southern and the US arm of Canadian National last week initiated talks under the National Carriers' Conference Committee to amend existing contracts with 12 unions. Under the Railway Labor Act, rail labor contracts do not expire, a regulation designed to keep freight moving. But if railroads and unions again go months without reaching agreements, freight movements will again be at risk. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook dims in October survey


24/11/04
24/11/04

Mexico GDP outlook dims in October survey

Mexico City, 4 November (Argus) — Private-sector analysts have again lowered their projections for Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year, with minimal changes in inflation expectations, the central bank said. For a seventh consecutive month, median GDP growth forecasts for 2024 have dropped in the central bank's monthly survey of private sector analysts. In the latest survey conducted in late October, analysts revised the full-year 2024 growth estimate to 1.4pc, down from 1.46pc the previous month. The 2025 forecast also dipped slightly, to 1.17pc from 1.2pc. The latest revisions are relatively minor compared to the slides recorded in preceding surveys, suggesting negativity in the outlook for Mexico's economy may be moderating. This aligns with the national statistics agency Inegi's preliminary report of 1.5pc annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, surpassing the 1.3pc consensus forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inflation projections for the end of 2024 inched down to an annualized 4.44pc from 4.45pc, while 2025 estimate held unchanged at 3.8pc. September saw a second consecutive month of declining inflation, with the CPI falling to 4.58pc in September from 4.99pc in August. The survey maintained the year-end forecast for the central bank's target interest rate at 10pc, down from the current 10.5pc. This implies analysts expect two 25-basis-point cuts to the target rate, most likely at the next meetings on 14 November and 19 December. The 2025 target rate forecast held steady at 8pc, with analysts anticipating continued rate reductions into next year. The outlook for the peso remains subdued, following political shifts in June's elections that reduced opposition to the ruling Morena party. The median year-end exchange rate forecast weakened to Ps19.8 to the US dollar from Ps19.66/$1 in the previous survey. The peso was trading weaker at Ps20.4/$1 on Monday, reflecting temporary uncertainty tied to the US election. Analysts remain wary of Mexico's political environment, especially after Morena and its allies pushed through controversial constitutional reforms in recent months. In the survey, 55pc of analysts cited governance issues as the primary obstacle to growth, with 19pc pointing to political uncertainty, 16pc to security concerns and 13pc to deficiencies in the rule of law. By James Young Mexican central bank monthly survey Column header left October September Headline inflation (%) 2024 4.45 4.44 2025 3.80 3.80 GDP growth (%) 2024 1.40 1.46 2025 1.17 1.20 MXN/USD exchange rate* 2024 19.80 19.66 2025 20.00 19.81 Banxico reference rate (%) 2024 10.00 10.00 2025 8.00 8.00 Survey results are median estimates of private sector analysts surveyed by Banco de Mexico from 17-30 October. *Exchange rates are forecast for the end of respective year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Construction spending up in September, asphalt weakens


24/11/04
24/11/04

Construction spending up in September, asphalt weakens

Houston, 4 November (Argus) — US construction spending rose slightly in September, with spending on highways and streets higher. Still, asphalt prices declined. Total highway and street spending rose by 0.4pc in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about $141.95bn, according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau. This was 1.5pc above September 2023 levels. Despite the increase in highway spending, wholesale asphalt prices in the US midcontinent hit a four-year low for September on excess supply and subdued demand. Midcontinent railed asphalt prices dropped by $45/st for September delivery to $290-$320/st from August. Waterborne prices in the region saw a similar, $45/st decrease to $300-$335/st. The sharp decline stemmed from turnaround activity beginning in late August at BP's 435,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery which boosted supplies as adverse weather in the southeastern US stifled wholesale demand. The National Weather Service reported above-average precipitation from Louisiana to Virginia in September with Tennessee seeing its fourth wettest September on record. Hurricane activity in early July and late September also impacted demand for the month with construction firms reporting lower third quarter product shipments because of extreme weather conditions. Total spending was up 7.3pc through the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Private construction spending was supported by residential investment while nonresidential spending fell. Manufacturing spending fell while commercial spending rebounded from August, reversing previous month's trends. Spending on water supply continues to grow. By Aaron May and Cobin Eggers US Construction Spending $mn 24-Sep 24-Aug +/-% 23-Sep +/-% Total Spending 2,148,805.0 2,146,048.0 0.1 2,055,216.0 4.6 Total Private 1,653,624.0 1,653,160.0 0.0 1,592,388.0 3.8 Private Residential 913,632.0 912,186.0 0.2 877,629.0 4.1 Private Manufacturing 234,302.0 234,803.0 -0.2 194,941.0 20.2 Private Commerical 119,191.0 118,927.0 0.2 139,861.0 -14.8 Total Public 495,182.0 492,888.0 0.5 462,829.0 7.0 Public Water/Sewage 76,805.0 76,462.0 0.4 69,634.0 10.3 Public Highway/Road 141,049.0 140,349.0 0.5 138,694.0 1.7 US Census Bureau Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Luberef’s profit down on year in Jan-Sept


24/11/04
24/11/04

Saudi Luberef’s profit down on year in Jan-Sept

Singapore, 4 November (Argus) — State-controlled Saudi Aramco's base oil subsidiary Luberef posted a significant decrease in profit in January-September as a result of lower margins. Profit in January-September dropped by 38pc from the previous year to 764mn Saudi riyals ($203mn), although revenue rose by 6.5pc on the year to SR7.4bn. This is because base oil and by-products margins decreased. Luberef's base oil sales volumes in the first nine months of this year were up 1pc to 929,000t as compared with 918,000t in the same period last year. Luberef's profit in the third quarter was down by 34pc on the year to SR226mn, against a 2pc on the year drop in revenue to SR2.5bn. Argus -assessed Asian fob Group I and II base oil export prices were largely lower over the third quarter, especially for light grades, while heavy-grade prices were relatively supported because of tighter supply. The Yanbu "Growth II" expansion project is expected to completed at the end of 2025, the company said. This will bring the base oil production capacity at the Yanbu facility to around 1.3mn t/y. Luberef is also studying a project to produce Group III/III+ base oils, which is at the pre-front end engineering design stage. By Chng Li Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil services upturn takes a pause for breath


24/11/04
24/11/04

Oil services upturn takes a pause for breath

New York, 4 November (Argus) — The boom in demand for oil field services is showing signs of wavering in the short term as international customers signal greater caution around spending and the outlook for US shale remains challenged. Upstream spending growth in the North American onshore market is expected to be flat in 2025, with low natural gas prices, drilling efficiencies and further consolidation among producers in the shale patch all exerting downward pressure. Given a mixed international outlook, one bright spot will be offshore markets, and deepwater in particular, according to investment management firm Evercore ISI. "The solid growth years of 2023 and 2024 are over as the cycle resets," senior managing director James West says. "We view 2025 as an aberration in a long-term, albeit slower, growth cycle." In the near term, the sector's attention will be focused on spending plans by top producers including state-run Saudi Aramco and Brazil's Petrobras, as well as any signs of a potential recovery in Chinese oil demand given the government's latest stimulus efforts to kick-start growth. The sector has had to contend with more than $200bn of shale mergers and acquisitions over the past year, which has shrunk the pool of available customers, and led to oil field services providers beginning their own round of consolidation. Moreover, with capital discipline remaining the rallying cry, significant productivity gains have enabled producers to do more with less. Its immediate challenges were put into stark contrast this week by oil's renewed plunge, this time on the back of Israel's decision to spare Iran's energy infrastructure from retaliatory strikes. SLB, the biggest oil field services contractor, has attributed recent price volatility to concerns over an oversupplied market owing to higher output from non-Opec producers, as well as questions over when the cartel will return barrels to the market and weak economic growth. That spurred some customers to adopt a "cautionary approach" when it came to activity and spending in the third quarter. Gas to the rescue But SLB remains upbeat over the long-term outlook, given the current emphasis on energy security, a key role for natural gas in the energy transition, and expectations that oil will remain a "large part" of the energy mix for decades to come. Gas investment remains robust in international markets, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and the North Sea. "While short-cycle oil investments have been more challenged, long-cycle deepwater projects globally and most capacity expansion projects in the Middle East remain economically and strategically favourable," SLB chief executive Olivier Le Peuch says. Exploration successes in frontier regions from Namibia to Suriname are also unlocking vast reserves that only serve to bolster confidence in the offshore market. Global offshore investment decisions will approach $100bn this year and in the next 2-3 years, adding up to more than $500bn for 2023-26, according to Le Peuch, representing a "growth engine for the industry going forward". Meanwhile, Baker Hughes expects to capitalise on a growing market for gas infrastructure equipment. The company forecasts natural gas demand will grow by almost 20pc by 2040, with global LNG demand increasing at a faster rate of 75pc. "This is the age of gas," chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says. The top services firms see limited short-term growth prospects for North America, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico. Hydraulic fracturing services provider Liberty Energy plans a temporary reduction in its fleet in response to slower customer activity and market pressures. And SLB says any potential pick-up in gas rigs could be offset by a further decline in oil rigs owing to efficiencies. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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