Nickel prices must rise to meet battery demand: AABC

: Metals
19/01/28

Higher nickel prices are required to incentivise supply of nickel sulphate for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, particularly given lower cobalt prices, delegates heard today at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (AABC) in Strasbourg, France.

Supply of nickel increased by 7pc last year to about 2.19mn t, but demand increased by 8pc to 2.33mn t, increasing the deficit to 147,000t, from 131,000t in 2017, said Denis Sharypin, head of market research at Russian producer Norilsk Nickel.

The battery sector accounted for 124,000t of consumption last year, and while overall nickel demand is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5pc to 2025, demand from the battery sector is estimated to climb at a CAGR of 18pc over the same period.

But there are concerns about the availability of class 1 nickel, which is required for the production of nickel sulphate used in battery chemicals. Around 70pc of nickel output is used in stainless steel production, which is still growing. And around 60pc of nickel is produced from laterite rather than sulphide ores.

The nickel market will remain in deficit in the coming years, and Indonesia is likely to reinstate a full ban on exports of nickel ore from 2022, further reducing supply, Sharypin said.

"For the nickel industry to supply the demand that's definitely coming, the nickel price needs to be much higher," said Anne Oxley, technical director at project developer Brazilian Nickel. "Major miners are not looking to expand nickel production. The nickel is there in the ground but the question is whether it will come out in time."

There have been large spikes in nickel prices in the past. The market reached $50,000/t in 2007, but has since fallen to $10,000/t, which has reduced investment interest in new projects. Cobalt is typically a by-product of nickel production and the recent fall in cobalt prices to around $20/lb from $44/lb has further reduced the incentive to bring new capacity into operation.

But with the nickel supply deficit expected to increase in the coming years, "it could easily go to $50,000/t again," Oxley said. "[Annual demand for] stainless steel is still growing by at least 4pc. Even without the boom in EVs there's still likely to be a shortage of nickel. It will take a lot of projects at least 10 years to get to production."

Brazilian Nickel expects global nickel supply to reach 3mn t by 2030, with overall demand at 3.8mn t and demand from the EV battery sector accounting for 1.1mn t. Norilsk forecasts that growing EV market share and changing chemistries in lithium-ion batteries could lift nickel demand in passenger EVs to 370,000t by 2025.

Batteries with nickel cobalt manganese (NCM) and nickel cobalt aluminium (NCA) cathodes are expected to account for 67pc of lithium-ion battery production this year, having risen sharply from a 33pc share in 2012, Sharypin said. Cathodes with a higher nickel content offer higher energy density than alternatives such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium manganese oxide (LMO) and lithium cobalt oxide (LCO)

"Small two-seater cars are very popular in China," said Le Yu, director of research and development at Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology. "These users care most about range per charge, and that requires higher energy density cathode materials."

Chinese output of LFP fell by 1pc in January-November, Norilsk estimates, while NCM production rose by 51pc in response to changes in government subsidies. The Chinese government has reduced its subsidies for EVs, with shorter driving ranges and has increased payments for longer driving ranges, to encourage consumer uptake.

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25/01/03

Nippon Steel condemns Biden move to block US Steel bid

Tokyo, 4 January (Argus) — Japanese firm Nippon Steel has condemned President Joe Biden's decision to block its proposed $15bn acquisition of US Steel citing national security concerns arising from a Japanese company owning a major US steelmaker. The US president has "sacrificed the future of American steelworkers for his own political agenda", Nippon Steel said. "It is clear that the CFIUS (committee on foreign investment in the United States) process was deeply corrupted by politics and the outcome was pre-determined to satisfy the political objectives of the Biden administration," Nippon Steel added. The company pledged to save the deal by "taking all appropriate action to protect our legal rights". Nippon Steel warned that Biden's decision sends a chilling message to any company based in a US-allied country contemplating significant investment in the US. "It is shocking and deeply troubling that the US government would reject a pro-competitive transaction that advances US interests and treat an ally like Japan in this way," the company said. Biden's decision is hard to understand and regrettable, especially given that it was made after consideration of US national security, Japan's trade and industry minister, Yoji Muto, said today. Tokyo will seek to clarify with the Biden administration the decision-making process followed by the CFIUS, Muto added. Japan's trade and industry ministry (Meti) agrees with Nippon Steel that the transaction would contribute to sustaining steel production capacity and employment in the US economy, Muto said, adding that the acquisition would be of mutual benefit. "The deal is to promote collaboration on advanced technologies and increase the competitiveness of the US and the Japanese steel industry," he added. The Japanese government must take this matter seriously, Muto reiterated, given growing concern among Japanese industries regarding the future US-Japan investment climate. Japanese business federation Keidanren in September wrote an open letter to US treasury secretary Janet Yellen, who chairs the CFIUS, expressing concern about political pressure being brought to bear on the committee. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Tariffs will push US Al prices up

25/01/03

Viewpoint: Tariffs will push US Al prices up

Houston, 3 January (Argus) — New tariffs planned by president-elect Donald Trump are set to lift US aluminum scrap, alloy and finished prices in 2025, raising costs and concerns for consumers as demand is on track to rebound across several end markets. Trump has pledged to implement a 60pc tariff on all imports from China and, on his first day in office, levy 25pc tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada unless they boost security on their borders with the US. It is unclear if Trump will follow through with such threats, but his fondness for tariffs during his first term has industry taking the claims seriously. These three countries made up just over two-thirds of unwrought aluminum imports to the US, about 42pc of finished aluminum product imports and 90pc of scrap imports through September 2024, according to the latest available customs data. Canadian, Chinese, and Mexican aluminum and aluminum products are so pervasive in the US market that any tariff could simultaneously lift prices on a wide range of scrap, alloy, and end-product grades. Imported aluminum made up about 54pc of the 6.05mn metric tonnes (t) of new aluminum supply in the US year-to-date through August, US Geological Survey data showed in November. The US also imported 399,000t of aluminum scrap from Mexico and Canada through August, compared with the roughly 2.35mn t of aluminum recovered through scrap over that same period. Industry consumers concerned Faced with potentially higher prices in multiple key segments of the aluminum market, industry consumers — many of whom service the automotive, packaging, and construction markets — will be forced to compete for imports from other countries. This shift in flows is expected to raise buying costs because equivalent alternatives do not exist for every grade and type of aluminum. Buyers are also set to raise bids as retail consumer demand rebounds in 2025. Norwegian aluminum producer Hydro expects rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to lift consumer spending as borrowing costs come down, pushing demand for extrusion-related products higher in 2025 . For the same reason, aluminum packaging firm Ball expects end-consumer demand for aluminum cans to rise in 2025. Other market participants are also expecting lower borrowing costs and policy decisions by the Trump administration to improve consumer purchasing power, which would drive up end-consumer demand, and buyer bidding with it. Some market participants have expressed doubts that Trump will actually institute tariffs on the scale he has promised, or they believe he will make exceptions for some markets like aluminum. But they all seem to agree that the Trump administration will enact protective trade policies on some scale. China's preemptive response In anticipation of Trump's tariff plan, China announced the repeal of a 13pc export tax rebate on all finished aluminum products on 15 November. Chinese aluminum exporters only made about a 9pc profit margin prior to the repeal, according to Chinese traders , so the repeal will make further exports unsustainable at current prices. Chinese exporters sold about 5.17mn t of aluminum fabricated products over January-October , or about 9.2pc of China's production, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. Exporters then sold near-record volumes in November , chasing profits before the rebate repeal took effect on 1 December. US market participants now expect Chinese exporters to stop shipping goods to the US, which receives about 16pc of its finished aluminum imports from China when measuring by weight using harmonized tariff codes 7603-7610 and 7614-7616, according to customs data. Chinese exporters will have to pivot back to their domestic market where they will pay neither export taxes nor shipping fees. This decrease in US supply will push US domestic offers for finished aluminum products even higher than tariffs alone would in the short term. Some exporters may try to continue selling to the US, albeit at higher prices. As former exporters add to the Chinese domestic supply of finished aluminum products, offers will fall to remain competitive in an oversupplied market. As prices fall in China and rise in the US, sufficiently profitable arbitrage opportunities could reopen for exporters. Some market participants expect other countries to make similar decisions in response to US tariffs and protectionist trade policy, but no country has made any policy decisions so far other than China. Nations would most likely make it more difficult for the US to acquire material through tariff countermeasures, which would cut supply and push prices even higher than tariffs alone. By Cole Sullivan US Aluminum Production and Consumption 000s of metric tonnes Aug-24 Aug-23 Difference ±% Jan-Aug 2024 Jan-Aug 2023 Difference ±% Primary production 56 62 -6 -9.7% -52 -10.3% Secondary recovery, new 166 153 13 8.5% _(* 1,300 _(* 1,240 60 4.8% Secondary recovery, old 132 138 -6 -4.3% _(* 1,050 _(* 1,060 -10 -0.9% Imports, metals and alloys 268 283 -15 -5.3% _(* 2,410 _(* 2,600 -190 -7.3% Imports, plates, sheets, bars, etc. 94 94 0 0.0% 134 19.0% Total new supply 716 730 -14 -1.9% _(* 6,050 _(* 6,110 -60 -1.0% US Census Bureau US Aluminum Imports Metric tonnes (t) Country and product Jan-Oct 2024 Jan-Oct 2023 Difference ±% % Share of 2023-YTD 2024 imports Canada Powder and flakes 62 291 -229 -78.7% 2.4% Bars, rods, and profiles 74,005 71,305 2,700 3.8% 28.6% Aluminum wire 160,921 161,366 -445 -0.3% 71.2% Plates, sheets, and strip (thickness > 0.2mm) 111,453 126,194 -14,741 -11.7% 20.0% Aluminum foil 2,541 3,328 -787 -23.6% 1.4% Tubes and pipes (excl. hollow profile) 1,104 1,686 -582 -34.5% 7.0% Tube or pipe fittings 365 393 -28 -7.1% 4.8% Structures and parts of structures 57,970 56,794 1,176 2.1% 19.3% Stranded wires, cables, plaited bands and the like 7,766 6,459 1,307 20.2% 4.9% Cans <=355ml (number of units) 248,162,546 387,066,900 -138,904,354 -35.9% 22.0% China Powder and flakes 1,884 971 913 94.0% 8.0% Bars, rods, and profiles 3,028 3,323 -295 -8.9% 1.3% Aluminum wire 2,000 2,505 -505 -20.2% 1.1% Plates, sheets, and strip (thickness > 0.2mm) 116,104 95,597 20,507 21.5% 15.2% Aluminum foil 58,618 57,412 1,206 2.1% 24.1% Tubes and pipes (excl. hollow profile) 533 540 -7 -1.3% 2.2% Tube or pipe fittings 3,877 3,920 -43 -1.1% 47.6% Structures and parts of structures 77,665 67,409 10,256 15.2% 22.9% Stranded wires, cables, plaited bands and the like 376 541 -165 -30.5% 0.4% Cans <=355ml (number of units) 46,173,987 17,343,226 28,830,761 166.2% 1.0% Mexico Powder and flakes 20 124 -104 -83.9% 1.0% Bars, rods, and profiles 30,606 37,180 -6,574 -17.7% 14.9% Aluminum wire 406 101 305 302.0% 0.5% Plates, sheets, and strip (thickness > 0.2mm) 4,827 2,225 2,602 116.9% 0.4% Aluminum foil 515 1,355 -840 -62.0% 0.6% Tubes and pipes (excl. hollow profile) 9,151 11,116 -1,965 -17.7% 46.1% Tube or pipe fittings 807 692 115 16.6% 8.4% Structures and parts of structures 28,111 31,334 -3,223 -10.3% 10.7% Stranded wires, cables, plaited bands and the like 15,090 17,921 -2,831 -15.8% 13.6% Cans <=355ml (number of units) 400,820,082 1,098,867,748 -698,047,666 -63.5% 62.5% US Census Bureau Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Biden blocks Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel

25/01/03

Biden blocks Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel

Pittsburgh, 3 January (Argus) — President Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel's proposed $15bn acquisition of US Steel today citing national security concerns with a Japanese company owning a major US steelmaker. Biden said evidence suggests that Nippon Steel "might take action that threatens to impair the national security of the US" if it owned US Steel. Nippon Steel, based in Tokyo, proposed buying US Steel in December 2023, outbidding other suitors, including US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs. US Steel corporate leadership said Nippon's investment would be the best way forward for the Pennsylvania company's aging integrated steel mills in Pittsburgh and northern Indiana. The United Steelworkers labor union opposed the sale to Nippon from the outset. US Steel shareholders approved the acquisition last year, but the merger became a political issue during the presidential election, which centered around Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Both Biden and president-elect Donald Trump vowed to block the sale of US Steel, which is among the top four US steelmakers, but no longer the powerhouse it was in the 20th century. Biden's move could have broader implications for foreign investment, in part because Japan is a staunch US ally in Asia. Nippon Steel did not immediately respond to a request for comment on its plans for the deal. Biden's statement today said Nippon must abandon the deal within 30 days. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Western RE refining projects attempt 2025 push

25/01/03

Western RE refining projects attempt 2025 push

London, 3 January (Argus) — Attempts to establish commercial-scale rare earth separation and processing outside China are growing in number and progressing gradually with a view to ramping up output over the next two years. Mineral resources developers are scrambling to reassess and upgrade their estimates of mineable rare earth element (REE) content as western governments attempt to encourage producers to establish production closer to home. And new efforts to develop high-volume processing capacity outside China — which currently accounts for more than 80pc of global refining — are emerging. Western countries are well behind China in advancing technical processes to refine REs from raw materials, as they seek alternatives to the highly polluting solvent extraction process. But with China banning the export of RE extraction and separation technologies in December 2023, as well as exports to the US of key electronic metals in December 2024, the impetus is growing to come up with viable Western production. RE oxides are used in the manufacturing of permanent magnets for electric vehicle (EV) motors, wind turbines and electronics, as well as batteries, lasers, metal alloys, medical devices and military equipment. Given that latter application, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has awarded more than $439mn in financing since 2020 to support a new domestic supply chain, from the separation and refining of materials mined in the US to downstream production of magnets. In a broader trend towards "friendshoring" of critical material supply, the DoD considers Canada, Australia and the UK as domestic suppliers. In December alone, several western companies announced progress in their plans to build production capacity. Northeast Wyoming in the US has one of the highest-grade deposits in North America, which firms such as Wyoming Rare USA and Rare Element Resources are looking to develop. Other projects in the US include ReElement Technologies in Indiana, Rainbow Rare Earths in Florida and Lynas in Texas. Energy Fuels in Utah and Phoenix Tailings in Massachusetts are in production, ramping up volumes to meet market demand. These facilities would spread the supply chain across the US, expanding from MP Materials in California, which has previously been the only commercial-scale facility in the country. In Canada, developer Ucore Rare Metals in December received a payment of $1.8mn from the US DoD, part of a $4mn award to conduct REE separation work at the company's RapidSX commercial demonstration facility in Kingston, Ontario. Ucore is also developing its flagship project, the Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex, in a foreign trade zone it said will provide an advantage if the incoming Trump administration implements tariffs and other trade measures. Reflecting the competition between countries for limited processing capacity, Ucore said it intends to continue the DoD project in the first half of 2025 and then turn to completing its C$4.28mn light REE demonstration project with the Government of Canada. Canada is home to one of the first in the wave of new western producers, as the government-backed Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) started producing neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metal during the summer. Like the US, European countries are also targeting domestic production in a bid to secure their supply chains. Projects include the expansion of Nd and NdPr processing capacity at UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM), the addition of NdPr production at Belgian chemical group Solvay at its plant in France in 2025 and French consultancy Carestar's plan to start production in 2026 of RE oxides from mining concentrates and, later, recycled magnets. REEtec in Norway plans to start a commercial NdPr plant in 2025 and Swedish state-owned LKAB plans to start an RE oxide demonstration plant by the end of 2026. These initiatives are in line with plans across Europe to increase EV manufacturing and renewable energy. Rare earth mining projects in Africa and Australia are largely targeting supply deals or integrated production in Asia or North America. Miners in Brazil, such as Aclara, are also planning integrated production by developing separation plants close to demand in the US and Europe. By Nicole Willing Key projects outside China Producer Location Production status Refined rare earth elements American Resources Noblesville, Indiana, US In development, refining achieved at validation facility Terbium (Tb), Dysprosium (Dy), Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr) Lynas Corporation Kuantan, Malaysia; Kalgoorlie, Australia; Texas, US Operational (Malaysia, Australia); In development (Texas) Dy, Tb, NdPr, Samarium (Sm), Europium (Eu), Gadolinium (Gd), Holmium (Ho) Phoenix Tailings Burlington, Massachusetts, US Operational (heavy and light rare earth metals) Dy, Tb, NdPr Rare Element Resources Upton, Wyoming, US Demonstration plant operational Light and heavy REs Energy Fuels White Mesa Mill, Utah, US Operational, Phase 1 commissioned NdPr; Dy, Tb to come Ucore Rare Metals Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Alexandria, Louisiana, US Demonstration plant operational; Louisiana facility planned for 2025 start Light and heavy REs Aclara Resources Goiás, Brazil; Bio-Bio, Chile; US (separation plant) In development Heavy REs (Dy, Tb); NdPr in US Ionic Rare Earths Belfast, UK; Minas Gerais, Brazil In development Recycled oxides (e.g., NdPr, Dy, Tb) Pensana Plc Saltend, UK; Longonjo, Angola Under construction Mixed RE carbonate, magnet metals (NdPr, Dy, Tb) Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) Saskatchewan, Canada Operational (commercial scale) NdPr Iluka Resources Eneabba, Western Australia Under construction RE oxides Solvay La Rochelle, France Operational; capacity expansion in 2025 Nd/NdPr to come Less Common Metals Ellesmere Port, Cheshire, UK Operational; Nd/NdPr capacity expansion ongoing Nd, NdPr, Dy, Ferro-Dysprosium (DyFe), Tb, Samarium-Cobalt (SmCo) alloy LKAB Lulea, Sweden Demonstration plant planned to start operations by end 2026 RE oxides Carester Lacq, France Production planned for 2026 Heavy REs (Dy, Tb) MP Materials Mountain Pass, California, US; Forth Worth, Texas, US Mountain Pass operational, Forth Worth in commissioning NdPr; other light and heavy REs to come Rainbow Rare Earths Lakeland, Florida, US Separation pilot plant in testing Nd and Pr initially; Dy, Tb, then Sm, Eu, Gd in future development Australian Strategic Materials Ochang, South Korea Operational Nd metal and alloy USA Rare Earth Stillwater, Oklahoma In development Heavy rare earths Neo Performance Materials Estonia Operational NdPr Mkango Resources Pulawy, Poland Separation plant planned NdPr oxide, heavy REs REEtec Norway Commercial plant planned for 2025 NdPr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU HRC imports top 500,000t at start of 2025

25/01/03

EU HRC imports top 500,000t at start of 2025

London, 3 January (Argus) — At least 530,000t of hot-rolled coils (HRC) have been put forward for customs clearance in the EU as of yesterday, according to newly-reset safeguard quotas data tracked by Argus . This includes 181,874t of Japanese and 150,920t of Vietnamese material. Each country has a duty-free allowance of 138,766t per quarter, which indicates a pro-rata safeguard duty will be payable. It is not yet clear if these are the final volumes, as the new year holidays could be skewing the availability of some customs data, while buyers in some countries such as Italy have the possibility to cancel their custom clearance, which they have done regularly in the past. However some may be less inclined to do so this quarter, given the ongoing anti-dumping investigation in the bloc on Japan, Vietnam, India and Egypt, which market participants expect will result in retroactive tariffs. The awaiting allocation volume for Egypt stands at 76,143t, and no HRC is pending clearance from India. Meanwhile, 111,848t of Taiwanese material have been put forward for import. January imports will most likely be higher than November and December, as has become the norm in the first month of a new quarter, but they are on track to be lower than in October , when comparing customs clearance volumes then. As of 1 October, 875,339t were awaiting allocation. EU import data, published by Argus , further shows that over 200,000t from Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan were ultimately pulled back from customs clearance in October. Despite this, ramped up Turkish and Ukrainian imports later on in the month, and some additional volumes from South Korea, Serbia, Australia and Indonesia, brought the overall October arrivals to 1.2mn t. By Lora Stoyanova EU HRC custom clearance as of 2 January* t Awaiting allocation Quota allocation Turkey 7,832 464,844 India 0 295,145 South Korea 1,175 184,310 UK 20 154,182 Serbia 70 163,621 Others Egypt 76,143 138,766 Vietnam 150,920 138,766 Japan 181,874 138,766 Taiwan 111,848 138,766 Australia 0 138,766 Switzerland 0 138,766 US 0 138,766 Libya 0 138,766 Canada 0 138,766 - European Commission * Pending final clearance volumes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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