Gasoline, diesel cars continue losing EU market share

: Electricity, Fertilizers, LPG, Metals, Oil products
21/04/23

Diesel and gasoline-powered cars saw a rapid loss of market share in the EU in the first quarter as consumers increasingly opt for hybrid electric vehicles (EVs) and electrically-chargeable cars.

Figures from industry association the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) show gasoline car sales in the EU fell by 16.9pc on the year to 1.1mn in January-March, driving their share of the passenger car market down to 42.2pc from 52.3pc in the same period of 2020. Among the countries registering strong declines were Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Italy. France was a notable exception among the bloc's major economies. Similarly, diesel car sales in the EU dropped by 20.1pc on the year to just under 594,000, representing a market share of 23.2pc, compared with 29.9pc in January-March 2020. ACEA noted double-digit declines in most EU countries including Germany, Spain and France.

In contrast, most types of alternatively powered vehicles increased market share. Sales of battery EVs in the EU were up by 59.1pc from a year earlier to over 146,000 in the first quarter, with "demand still benefiting from government stimuli for zero-emission vehicles", ACEA said. Sales of plug-in hybrids reached more than 208,000, up by 175pc compared January-March 2020, with exceptional growth in Italy helping drive the sharp increase. And sales of hybrid EVs exceeded 470,000, a 101.6pc increase from a year earlier.

Hybrids, plug-in hybrids and battery EVs took a combined market share of 32.2pc in January-March.

Meanwhile, demand for natural gas vehicles in the EU declined by 10.1pc on the year to 14,300 during the first quarter, but sales of LPG-fuelled cars almost doubled to reach just over 46,000, "boosted by remarkable gains in France", ACEA said. France is now the second largest EU market for LPG cars, while Italy accounted for more than half of total LPG sales, it said.

By Dafydd ab Iago

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24/12/26

China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts

Beijing, 26 December (Argus) — China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has launched futures contracts and options for polysilicon today. This is the third contract that GFEX has launched, following the launch of its contracts for silicon metal in December 2022 and lithium carbonate in July 2023. The launch of polysilicon contracts is aimed at easing a supply surplus and ensuring market development, given increasing new capacities at polysilicon producers and lower-than-expected demand from the downstream silicon wafer industry in the past two years, according to market participants. The new contracts are for benchmark N-type polysilicon and substitute P-type polysilicon. The exchange has set a premium of 12,000 yuan/t ($1,644/t) for the N-type over the P-type. It is offering seven contracts starting from June 2025 until December. The most-traded June contracts for N-type polysilicon on the GFEX closed at Yn41,570/t on 26 December, up from the launch price of Yn38,600/t, with trading volumes totalling 301,655 lots, equivalent to around 905,000t. GFEX has established delivery points for the new contracts in eight provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. Output and consumption in these regions account for 93.1pc and 91pc of the country's total output and consumption respectively, according to GFEX. South China-based GFEX launched in April 2021 and is partly owned by China's four operational futures exchanges — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange — with each holding a 15pc stake. Market reaction Some market participants expect the new futures contracts will ease pressure from ample spot inventories and shore up spot market sentiment in the coming months. But the market has yet to see immediate effects on the first trading day. Argus -assessed domestic prices for 5-5-3 grade silicon metal — a key feedstock in the production of silicon powder, which is the feedstock for polysilicon — held at Yn11,200-11,400/t delivered to ports on 26 December, unchanged from 24 December given limited buying interest from consumers. The most-traded February contracts for 5-5-3 grade silicon on the GFEX closed at Yn11,190/t on 26 December, down from Yn11,585/t on 25 December. China is the world's largest polysilicon producer, producing 1.74mn t during January-November, up by 33pc from a year earlier, according to data from the China nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA). It has an production capacity of over 2mn t/yr, according to industry estimates. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

24/12/26

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

Tokyo, 26 December (Argus) — Japan's crude steel output is expected to recover during April 2025-March 2026, given higher output in wider domestic industries, according to government affiliated think-tank the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ). The country's crude steel output will increase by 4.1pc on the year to 86.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the IEEJ's projection on 24 December. This will mark the first year-on-year growth in four years. A recovery is mostly attributed to an uptrend in wider domestic industrial sectors including automobile, electric and industrial machinery, IEEJ said. It sees domestic car output increasing by 1.8pc to 8.9mn units from a year earlier. IEEJ did not provide further details, but it suggested that expanding investment for digital and green transformation will underpin the steel demand throughout the period. The think-tank also predicts that the country's steel product exports will increase by 1.2pc on the year following an upward trend in the global manufacturing sectors. Japan delivered around 32mn t of steel products overseas during 2023-24, according to the industry group the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF). The country's crude steel output has been sluggish throughout 2024, partly owing to weak demand from the construction and automobile sectors. Rising material costs and labour shortages have led to fewer construction projects in the country, weighing on steel demand. Operational suspensions at major auto manufacturers including Toyota and Daihatsu, following alleged false reporting on safety test results, also pressured steel demand. This partially led to the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in booked orders of ordinary steel for car use in October, according to JISF. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US ethane to be oversupplied for 2025

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US ethane to be oversupplied for 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US ethane production growth will likely continue to outpace exports and domestic demand into the first half of 2025, keeping US inventories of the natural gas liquid in record territory until export capacity expands late next year. Ethane, which is widely used for ethylene production at US steam crackers, has emerged as the lowest-cost petrochemical feedstock worldwide, spurring infrastructure investments in Asia, particularly China, to receive US ethane exports. Still, US ethane production from gas processing continues to outpace the country's ability to ship it into demand centers in Europe, India and China. Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane spot prices fell relative to natural gas in 2024 due to record ethane production, leaving ethane stocks oversupplied entering 2025. EPC ethane's premium to its fuel value in Nymex natural gas at the Henry Hub averaged 3.25¢/USG during 2024, 54pc lower than in 2023. It also averaged a 1.75¢/USG premium to its fuel content in the second half of 2024, 77.5pc lower than the same period last year, as spot ethane prices fell on ample supplies. Cheaper natural gas in the Permian basin spurred higher rates of ethane recovery from the natural gas stream and led to a disproportionate rise in ethane production. Spot prices for natural gas at the Waha hub in west Texas across the year averaged -$0.10/mmBtu, with prices remaining negative for eight of nine months from March-November. Prices were consistently positive in 2023, averaging $1.66/mmBtu across the year. Negative Permian gas prices allow ethane recovery from the gas stream at a much lower cost. US natural gas production in 2024 is poised to be steady to slightly down, having averaged 3.14tcf in monthly production from January to September, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Meanwhile, ethane production is set to reach a record high for the 11th consecutive year, with monthly production averaging 2.78mn b/d over the same period, up from a 2.65mn b/d average over the whole of 2023. Waha gas prices turned positive in the second half of November and spiked to a multi-month high of $2.56/mmBtu on 2 December, pushing ethane prices to a 13-month high of 25.625¢/USG the following day as downstream buyers bid higher to fulfill contracts for the month . Ethane's rally was brief, however, with Mont Belvieu prices falling to 22.5¢/USG over the next week even as Waha climbed further. Record ethane inventories Ethane inventories hit record highs in 2024, according to EIA data, including a peak of 80.89mn bl in July, 79.5mn bl in August and 77.23mn bl in September. Mont Belvieu ethane has also been in backwardation in December, with January prices at a 2-4c discount to prompt December prices, encouraging selling interest. Sustained cold weather and additional surges in natural gas spot prices may further draw down ethane supplies as higher volumes are rejected into the gas stream, market participants suggest, but as it stands, ethane supplies are likely to remains at or near record highs for the first part of the new year. In the EIA's most recent Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency projects ethane inventories to end 2024 at 74.1mn bl , which would be a year-end record following a seasonal draw down, and 12.6pc higher than a year earlier. In that same report, including projections for the fourth quarter, domestic consumption of ethane is estimated to be 2.26mn b/d in 2024, up by about 98,000 b/d on the year, and net exports are estimated at 483,000 b/d, up by around 13,000 b/d, whereas production of ethane from natural gas processing is expected to be 113,000 b/d higher at 2.77mn b/d. Playing catch-up If projections are accurate, 2024's record end-of-year ethane supply will exceed the peak previously set in 2020 of 69.6mn bl, based on EIA data. The first VLEC loadings at Energy Transfer's 180,000 b/d Nederland, Texas, export terminal began in January of 2021, resulting in year-end inventories reaching a relative trough in 2022 at 53.55mn bl before rebounding by nearly 50pc in the last two years. Domestic ethane consumption growth has kept pace with or fallen behind growth in production since 2020. Conversely, ethane exports in 2021 jumped by 98,000 b/d to 369,000 b/d on the opening of the Nederland terminal and grew more slowly in 2022 and 2023. Exports of US ethane are limited by infrastructure at receiving terminals abroad and the specialized vessels required to ship the lighter feedstock. Overseas markets are gearing up to take ethane imports over the next few years , and US ethane inventories are likely to continue building ahead of of an expansion to domestic export infrastructure as US production grows further. Enterprise's Neches River export terminal in Beaumont, Texas, is the next scheduled US expansion and is set to complete its first phase in the third quarter of 2025 , adding 120,000 b/d of ethane export capacity. Completion of the second phase in the first half of 2026 would take this capacity to a total of 180,000 b/d. The project, if it remains on track, should curtail ethane inventory growth at the back end of 2025. Until then, abundant supply probably will continue to weigh on spot prices, and the first half of 2025 may see ethane prices fall further, both outright and relative to natural gas, especially since the EIA's outlook also forecasts gas prices to rise through the winter. By Joseph Barbour Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — A wave of new electric arc furnace steel mills coming on line next year could transform scrap flows in North America, while looming US import tariffs could stunt cross-border trade. Six steel mills in the US and Canada, accounting for about 9.9mn short tons (st)/yr of electric arc furnace (EAF) production, are ramping up from late this year or scheduled to start up in 2025. The new EAFs, mostly along the Mississippi River and in Ontario, could be magnets for scrap and reshape flows across the southeast, Midwest and Canada, as scrap-fed EAF steelmakers continue to expand their role in North America, which was historically dominated by coal and iron ore-fed blast furnaces. Although some scrap dealers are optimistic about markets in the new year, market participants are carefully monitoring the effect president-elect Donald Trump's hawkish trade policies could have on scrap trading. Trump has pledged to impose 25pc tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico that could further shift North American scrap flows. Canada is the largest shipper of ferrous scrap into the US at an average of 3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr since 2021. Prime scrap imports between January and October this year averaged 47,000t/month, while shred imports averaged 70,000t/month, US customs data shows. The import tax would drive up the cost of Canadian scrap for US buyers and potentially reduce supply available to steel mills in the Midwest. Scrap traders noted that Trump can be unpredictable and may be using the threat of tariffs as leverage. "I'm pretty tepid on the first quarter," one Midwest dealer said. "People are trying to figure out how serious Trump is on tariffs." New EAFs to drive scrap demand The new scrap-fed EAFs in North America include Algoma Steel in Ontario, Hybar in Arkansas, and Nippon Steel's and ArcelorMittal's joint venture in Alabama. US Steel's Big River Steel began melting scrap at its second Arkansas EAF in October. EAF steelmaker Hybar plans to open its 630,000 st/yr reinforcing bar mill in northeast Arkansas in the summer of 2025. Hybar, along with Big River Steel and three Nucor mills already in the region, could further bolster the lower Mississippi River basin as a major scrap market. "I'm looking forward to next year because of the increased competition," a Midwestern scrap dealer said. "It's always good to have options." The new consumption could position northeast Arkansas and Tennessee as perhaps the top scrap consuming region, making it an industry barometer in 2025. Chicago has historically held that position and has been the benchmark region in contracts. Shifting flows in Canada Algoma Steel plans to begin ramping up two new EAFs in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, in March next year to continue making hot-rolled coil and steel plate. The EAFs could eventually bring that facility's maximum steel production levels to 3.7mn st/yr once they fully replace Algoma's blast furnaces. The steelmaker will likely focus on low-copper shred and prime scrap grades to keep up the iron content in its melt mix as it transitions to EAF steelmaking, one Canadian scrap consumer said. Algoma may also continue to rely on raw inputs like direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron as it ramps up its scrap buying to feed the EAFs. Market participants in Canada expect the mill to buy scrap from the prairies west of Sault Ste Marie, as well as from the greater Toronto area to the mill's east, though Algoma will face competition to pull scrap from the latter region. Scrap dealers in the upper Midwest are also keen to supply Algoma Steel because buyers in that region are scarce. A Midwest dealer noted that Algoma may ship in scrap from US ports on the Great Lakes. Algoma did not respond to requests for comment on its raw material plans. In 2021, the company set up a joint venture with Triple M Metal, a Canadian scrap dealer with 45 yards, that will likely supply scrap for Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie. By James Marshall and Brad MacAulay US steel mill capacity additions Million short tons/yr Company Location Product type Capacity added Start date US Steel/Big River Steel Osceola, AR Sheet 3.00 RAMPING ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert, AL Sheet 1.65 2H 2024 Algoma Steel Sault Ste. Marie, ON Sheet 3.70 1Q 2025 Nucor Lexington, NC Bar 0.43 1Q 2025 Hybar Osceola, AR Bar 0.63 2Q 2025 CMC Berkeley, WV Bar 0.50 4Q 2025 Total 9.91 Argus reporting & public statements Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Cash prices of high-octane gasoline blending components in the US Gulf coast are likely to rise in 2025 after a year of declines as lower refining capacity starts to thin stocks. Alkylate and reformate cash prices and differentials have been lower over the course of 2024, in part from weaker refining margins. The lower margins are reflected in the region's crack spreads, which narrowed to $12.94/USG on 19 December from $18.67/USG a year earlier, as abundant supply in the region met weak demand . Inventories in the region have also been lower over the course of the year. Stocks in the region fell in November by 2pc from a year earlier to an average 29.75mn bl. US Gulf coast crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook, brought on by lower overall product demand, especially for gasolin e . But the EIA expects spreads to hold steady next year, even with a decrease in refining capacity, potentially supporting prices for high-octane components. The upcoming year will also bring a significant refinery closure to the region, which should reduce production and raise cash prices of components such as alkylate and reformate. LyondellBasell's closure of its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is scheduled to start in January. The refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), which converts vacuum gasoil primarily into gasoline blendstocks, is expected to be shut in February, followed by a complete end to crude refining by the end of the first quarter. US total refining capacity should fall to 17.9mn b/d by the end of 2025, according to the EIA, 400,000 b/d less than at the end of 2024, with the lower production leading to price increases. Although the LyondellBasell closing should eventually give crack spreads in the region a boost, some in the industry do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels of refining margins in the immediate future. CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp said in November the company needed "to see additional refining capacity rationalization in both the US and globally" for crack spreads to gain ground. An increase in consumer demand for gasoline would also support a rise in cash prices and differentials for high-octane components. But the EIA in December forecast consumption nationwide would rise in 2025 by only 10,000 b/d, or 0.1pc, to 8.95mn b/d. By Jason Metko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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