US, EU discuss caps on Russia oil revenue: Yellen

: Crude oil
22/06/07

The US and EU are jointly looking at ways to limit Russia's oil revenue intake following the phaseout of Russian oil imports into Europe, including through price caps.

US treasury secretary Janet Yellen in remarks before the Senate Finance Committee today described "extremely active" talks with her European counterparts that she said aim to limit the oil revenue going to Russia. While tariffs and a "buyers' cartel" were among ideas previously discussed, imposing price caps on Russian oil exports is a proposal gaining ground among policymakers in Washington.

The US' experience with imposing sanctions against major producers in the past decade — Iran and Venezuela — involved imposition of sanctions that either prohibited US and foreign purchases of oil sourced from those countries, or, in the case of Iran in 2012-15, imposed numerical caps on purchases by foreign countries.

But the size of Russian exports — 4.5mn b/d of crude and 2.7mn b/d of products last year — is prompting a change in the approach at a time when tight supply has struggled to catch up with rising oil demand following global recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.

"What we want to do is keep Russian oil flowing into the global market to hold down global prices and try to avoid a spike that causes a worldwide recession and drives up oil prices," Yellen told the Senate panel.

US officials have also been hesitant about imposing an outright global ban on Russian oil exports because a potential price spike could more than offset the decline in the volume of Russian exports.

Self-sanctioning by big oil companies and trading firms in Europe has redirected some Russian exports, at steep discounts, to markets in India and China. The Russian oil refining sector registered deep declines in April already, President Vladimir Putin said today at a discussion with his economic advisers — a rare Kremlin admission that western sanctions are having a negative effect.

Biden has already banned imports of Russian oil and other energy commodities into the US, but the administration has a sanctions waiver in place until 24 June for foreign buyers of Russian energy products. With the EU preparing to end imports of seaborne crude from Russia by December and all oil products by February 2023, the US is likely to adjust the terms of its sanctions waiver. The US-EU discussions are aiming to continue a synchronized approach to sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

A theoretical price cap on Russian oil exports would be set below the prevailing market rate, with sanctions targeting any buyer that pays more than the cap. The mechanism, in theory, is less politically divisive to buyers outside the US and EU who complain about the extra-territorial reach of sanctions. And it would meet the dual objective of limiting Russian oil revenue and preventing a sudden global supply shock — but only as long as Russia complies with such restrictions.

"As a practical matter, (a price cap) is going to be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible, to put in play," Washington think tank Atlantic Council senior fellow Brian O'Toole said. "One of the ways that the US can have an impact on that is to say that US banks can no longer process any transaction related to Russian oil exports."

The US administration has not made any decisions ahead of the 24 June sanctions waiver deadline, besides signaling it would give sufficient notice if its terms change.

By Haik Gugarats

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/11/21

Cost of government support for fossil fuels still high

London, 21 November (Argus) — The cost of government measures to support the consumption and production of fossil fuels dropped by almost third last year as energy prices declined from record highs in 2022, according to a new report published today by the OECD. But the level of fiscal support remained higher than the historical average despite government pledges to reduce carbon emissions. In an analysis of 82 economies, data from the OECD and the IEA found that government support for fossil fuels fell to an estimated $1.1 trillion in 2023 from $1.6 trillion a year earlier. Although energy prices were lower last year than in 2022, countries maintained various fiscal measures to both stimulate fossil fuel production and reduce the burden of high energy costs for consumers, the OECD said. The measures are in the form of direct payments by governments to individual recipients, tax concessions and price support. The latter includes "direct price regulation, pricing formulas, border controls or taxes, and domestic purchase or supply mandates", the OECD said. These government interventions come at a large financial cost and increase carbon emissions, undermining the net-zero transition, the report said. Of the estimated $1.1 trillion of support, direct transfers and tax concessions accounted for $514.1bn, up from $503.7bn in 2022. Transfers amounted to $269.8bn, making them more costly than tax concessions of $244.3bn. Some 90pc of the transfers were to support consumption by households and companies, the rest was to support producers. The residential sector benefited from a 22pc increase from a year earlier, and support to manufacturers and industry increased by 14pc. But the majority of fuel consumption measures are untargeted, and support largely does not land where it is needed, the OECD said. The "under-pricing" of fossil fuels amounted to $616.4bn last year, around half of the 2022 level, the report said. "Benchmark prices (based on energy supply costs) eased, particularly for natural gas, thereby decreasing the difference between the subsidised end-user prices and the benchmark prices," it said. In terms of individual fossil fuels, the fiscal cost of support for coal fell the most, to $27.7bn in 2023 from $43.5bn a year earlier. The cost of support for natural gas has grown steadily in recent years, amounting to $343bn last year compared with $144bn in 2018. The upward trend is explained by its characterisation as a transition fuel and the disruption of Russian pipeline supplies to Europe, the report said. By Alejandro Moreano and Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

24/11/21

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in more than 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

24/11/21

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU says finance draft text not acceptable

24/11/21

Cop: EU says finance draft text not acceptable

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The latest draft of the text on climate financing presented at the UN Cop 29 climate summit is not ambitious enough on mitigation — reducing emissions — and "clearly unacceptable," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. Parties must agree at Cop 29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The text is the main outcome for the summit. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance that and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said. Parties to last year's Cop 28 summit in Dubai made an historic pledge to "transition away" from all fossil fuels. The EU has warned against any backsliding on this pledge . "We cannot accept the view that the previous Cop did not happen," Hoekstra said. A draft text on the mitigation work programme — a process that focuses on emissions reduction — was released by the Cop 29 presidency in the early hours of this morning. It does not mention phasing out or reducing fossil fuels in energy systems, or reference the agreement reached on the latter point at Cop 28 last year. Hoekstra indicated today's text does not provide enough clarity to allow the EU to put a concrete number on the amount of climate finance that should be available. The bloc has insisted the final number for climate financing can come only when other elements, including the structure and contributor base, are settled. But recipient country groups such as the G77 and Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) groups have expressed impatience at the lack of a concrete number. Minor bright spots in the numerous draft texts released overnight include those on Article 6, which governs international carbon credits, Hoekstra said. But the commissioner is "sure there is not a single ambitious country who thinks this is nearly good enough." By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico to keep some energy regulator independence

24/11/20

Mexico to keep some energy regulator independence

Mexico City, 20 November (Argus) — Mexico's lower house constitutional affairs commission changed its draft bill on eliminating independent regulators to keep the energy regulatory commission (CRE) independent on technical issues even after the energy ministry absorbs it. In an earlier draft, respective ministries would take over the functions of previously independent regulators. With the change, CRE will become a "decentralized body," said President Claudia Sheinbaum. It will retain technical independence but will no longer be an autonomous regulator able to set its budget, the president added. Sheinbaum did not mention hydrocarbons regulator CNH, which could take up a similar position as CRE. Antitrust watchdog Cofece and telecommunications regulator IFT would become similarly decentralized bodies with technical independence from the economy ministry. Transparency watchdog Inai will disappear but a new anticorruption ministry will take over its functions. Inai in recent years has forced state-owned oil company Pemex to release more detailed data about harmful emissions and fuel theft, among other issues. Mexico's independent regulators and watchdogs still formed part of the 2025 budget proposal the government revealed this week. The actual independence of Mexico's energy regulators has been questioned since the previous government, as the number of permits granted by CRE to private companies has dropped in favor of state-owned companies . Critics have raised concerns regarding the bill, arguing it will destabilize Mexico's balance of power and undermine investor confidence. The proposal also fueled concerns that this change could weaken Mexico's standing in the 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA), as the US and Canada may see the exit of independent regulators as a risk to their business interests in Mexico. Sheinbaum said she met with US president Joe Biden and Canadian president Justin Trudeau during the G20 summit and discussed the importance of the USMCA. She did not mention any concerns the trade partners had regarding the bill. Morena previously tried to absorb the independent regulators early on during the previous administration. The ruling party saw its efforts strained because it lacked the two-thirds supermajority required to pass constitutional changes. Morena and its allies are now expected to secure the votes swiftly, as they have passed other constitutional reforms in the previous weeks. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more