Temperature likely to exceed 1.5°C limit by 2028: WMO

: Emissions
24/06/05

There is an 80pc likelihood that the average global temperature across one of the next five years will breach the 1.5°C goal of the Paris climate agreement, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today.

The Paris agreement seeks to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. Climate scientists use a time period of 1850-1900 as a pre-industrial baseline. But shorter-term warming, over a year or so, "does not equate to a permanent breach" of the Paris agreement goal, the WMO said.

The chance of one of the next five years breaching the 1.5°C goal "has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero", the WMO said.

It is also very likely that one of the next five years — 2024-28 — will be the hottest on record, with an 86pc chance of this happening, the organisation added. The warmest year on record was last year, at 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels.

There is also a 47pc chance that the global temperature average over the entire period of 2024-28 will surpass the 1.5°C limit, the WMO said. The likelihood of this happening over 2023-27 was at 32pc.

In a separate report today, EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus confirmed that last month was the warmest May on record globally. The average temperature for May was 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the 11th consecutive month at or higher than 1.5°C above that baseline, Copernicus said. The global average temperature for the past 12 months — June 2023-May 2024 — is the highest on record, at 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average, Copernicus data show.

"The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C will be won or lost in the 2020s," UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said today, in a speech marking World Environment Day. "It's climate crunch time," he added.

Guterres spoke ahead of the G7 summit, set for 13-15 June in southern Italy. The G7 countries are Italy — which holds the presidency this year — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. G7 finance ministers placed climate firmly on the agenda in a communique released after their meeting in late May.

By Georgia Gratton

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25/04/16

Japan to develop geothermal power under net zero plan

Osaka, 16 April (Argus) — The Japanese government is gearing up to develop geothermal energy, as the clean power can help to decarbonise the power sector with stable output, unlike weather-dependent renewables such as solar and wind. The trade and industry ministry Meti on 14 April launched a public-private council to discuss the development of next-generation geothermal energy, aiming to formulate a draft guideline, including capacity and cost targets, by around October this year. The new technology could lift the country's potential geothermal capacity to at least 77GW, compared with 23.5GW based on conventional methods, according to the council. The draft plan aims to establish the next-generation geothermal technology as early as the 2030s, to expand the use of the clean energy with competitive prices toward 2040, while tacking geological challenges, such as fault and complex geology, in Japan. Should the next-generation technology, such as closed-loop and supercritical geothermal, prove practical, Japan could utilise its potential, said Meti minister Yoji Muto on 15 April. Japan could consider exporting the next-generation technology globally, as it has around 70pc global share in conventional geothermal turbines, he added. The geothermal strategy is in line with the country's new strategic energy plan (SEP) , which was published in February, as well as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba's push to develop geothermal capacity. Ishiba had focused on less-utilised and high potential geothermal, as well as micro-hydropower, during his [campaign for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party presidential election](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2608517) last year. The SEP assumes geothermal will account for 1-2pc of Japan's power mix in the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, which is relatively marginal compared with other renewables such as solar at 23-29pc, wind at 4-8pc, hydroelectric at 8-10pc and biomass at 5-6pc. But even the small share would be much higher compared with its actual share of 0.3pc of total power generation in 2023-24. Diversification of renewable power sources would be necessary to achieve Japan's plan to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 60pc in 2035-36 and by 73pc in 2040-41, respectively, against the 2013-14 level, before achieving its net zero goal in 2050. Under the SEP, Tokyo aims to reduce its dependence on thermal power to 30-40pc in 2040-41 from 71pc in 2024. Japanese private firms are already involved in further developing domestic and overseas geothermal projects. Japanese utility Hokkaido Electric Power and construction firm Obayashi said on 16 April that they will study potential geothermal resources in Hokkaido during April 2025-February 2026, taking advantage of subsidies provided by state-owned energy agency Jogmec. Japanese battery maker Panasonic Energy said on 8 April that it has signed a power purchase agreement with regional utility Kyushu Electric Power's renewable arm Kyushu Mirai Energy to secure around 50GWh/yr of geothermal-based electricity from 1 April. The stable geothermal supplies, unaffected by weather, could double a renewable ratio in its domestic power consumption to around 30pc, Panasonic said. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Fortescue announces electric drills deal

25/04/16

Australia's Fortescue announces electric drills deal

Sydney, 16 April (Argus) — Australian iron ore and energy company Fortescue has announced a A$350mn ($222mn) deal with Swedish firm Epiroc to buy over 50 electric drill rigs aimed at reducing emissions at its iron ore operations in Western Australia (WA). Fortescue expects the drills to reduce annual diesel consumption by around 35mn litres once it fully replaces diesel-powered equipment by 2030. The new fleet will cut more than 90,000t of CO2 emissions annually, Fortescue Metals chief executive officer Dino Otranto said on 16 April. The fleet includes autonomous electric platform and contour drills, and the first equipment arrived at Fortescue's Solomon mine in early April. The deal is part of the company's plan to replace its diesel-powered equipment by 2030. It signed a $2.8bn deal with Swiss-German manufacturer Liebherr in 2024 for a battery-powered truck fleet for its mining operations. Fortescue plans to replace around 800 pieces of heavy mining equipment with zero emissions equivalents and deploy 2-3GW of renewable energy and battery storage across the Pilbara region by the end of this decade, Otranto said. Fortescue is currently building a 190MW solar farm at its Cloudbreak mine, which will reduce annual diesel consumption by a further 125mn l. Safeguard mechanism results The company reported covered scope 1 emissions of 1.96mn t of CO2e across seven facilities in the first compliance year of Australia's reformed safeguard mechanism , which was just over 100,000t of CO2e above a combined baseline of 1.85mn t of CO2e. Facilities earn Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) under the scheme if their emissions are below baseline or must surrender Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) or SMCs if emissions are above the threshold. Fortescue earned 49,749 SMCs for its Solomon Power Station and surrendered the units across four other facilities that exceeded their baselines. It also surrendered 57,753 ACCUs, while two of its facilities — the Christmas Creek Mine and Eliwana Mine — will have to manage a combined excess of 49,382t of CO2e in future under applications for multi-year monitoring periods (MYMP), which allow eligible facilities to report under the safeguard scheme for periods of up to five years ( see table ). Fortescue expected to exceed emissions baselines by around 120,000t of CO2e in the 2023-24 year, it said in 2024. ACCU generic, generic (No AD) and human-induced regeneration (HIR) spot prices have remained below A$35 ($22) over the past two months, having declined steadily from mid-November because of lower buying interest from safeguard companies and strong SMC issuances. By Juan Weik and Susannah Cornford Fortescue's 2023-24 safeguard mechanism results t CO2e Facility Covered emissions Baseline ACCUs surrendered SMCs surrendered SMCs issued MYMP net position Solomon Mine 452,137 390,033 42,926 19,178 Solomon Power Station 316,859 366,608 49,749 Christmas Creek Mine 372,251 351,986 20,265 Cloudbreak Mine 295,132 267,459 8,411 19,262 Rail 254,871 241,706 4,002 9,163 Eliwana Mine 164,894 135,777 29,117 Iron Bridge Mine 104,560 100,000 2,414 2,146 Total 1,960,704 1,853,569 57,753 49,749 49,749 49,382 Source: Clean Energy Regulator Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Dozens of US coal plants eligible for MATS extension

25/04/15

Dozens of US coal plants eligible for MATS extension

Cheyenne, 15 April (Argus) — The White House has identified more than 60 fossil fuel-fired power plants that will have two extra years to comply with the more stringent mercury and air toxics standards (MATS) finalized in 2024. Under a proclamation signed by US president Donald Trump last week, the plants on the list will be able to operate under whatever existing mercury and air toxics standards they currently are subject to until 8 July 2029. That is two years after the compliance deadline put in place in May 2024. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rules finalized last year tightened mercury and air toxics standards for coal- and oil-fired units by 67pc, included new emissions-monitoring requirements and added standards for lignite-fired coal plants that put them in line with those for other coal plants. EPA in March said it was reviewing the new standards and said companies could seek exemptions to the mercury rule and other emissions rules. Trump followed that up last week with a proclamation that certain generating facilities would be given a two-year exemption in complying with the 2024 rule. The White House released the list of exempt power plants late on 14 April. Most of the plants on the list are coal-fired generators, some of which were scheduled for retirement by the end of 2027. These include Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston plant and one unit of its Cumberland plant, as well as Vistra Energy's Kincaid, Baldwin and Newton plants and two coal units of Vistra's Miami Fort plant. The two coal units at Southern Company's Victor J Daniel plant in Mississippi also have been exempted from the new mercury and air toxics rules for two years. Southern had planned on retiring those units by the end of 2027, but in February, the Mississippi Public Service Commission approved two special contracts that were expected to need unit 2 of the Daniel plant and possibly a unit of a natural gas plant to run into the 2030s. Some other coal plant units owned by Southern, TVA and Vistra also are now exempt from the July 2027 mercury and air toxics compliance deadline. So are some plant units owned by East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), NRG, Ameren and Entergy. At least two natural gas plant units — unit 5 of Southern's Plant Barry and City Utilities of Springfield's John Twitty Energy Center, which has coal and natural gas generation — are exempt from the July 2027 deadline. So is unit 5 of Entergy's RS Nelson plant, which runs on petroleum coke. Essentially all of the other units in the White House's list are coal units, including Otter Tail Power's Big Stone and Coyote Station plants in North Dakota. Otter Tail said it had requested the exemptions "to avoid making unnecessary expenditures" if EPA decides to roll back the 2024 rule. EKPC said it was "grateful" its request to exempt the Spurlock and Cooper coal-fired power plants in Kentucky was granted and that the company "will continue to operate the plants in accordance with all market and environmental rules." NRG said it was still reviewing the order, but did not expect it to have any effect on its plans. TVA, Southern, Vistra and owners of other power plants given compliance extensions did not respond to requests for comment. By Courtney Schlisserman Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Net zero banking body ups flexibility for climate goals

25/04/15

Net zero banking body ups flexibility for climate goals

London, 15 April (Argus) — The Net Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) will increase flexibility around climate targets in its framework, allowing its members to set targets aligned with the upper temperature limit sought by the Paris climate agreement. Members voted to introduce less stringent targets "in response to changing external circumstances and member needs", the NZBA said today. The NZBA is a voluntary global initiative with more than 120 banks as members. The group aims to align financing with reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 — in line with the Paris agreement. The Paris accord seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5°C. Members "voted overwhelmingly in favour of adopting proposed changes", the NZBA said today. Banks that join the alliance commit to developing long-term and intermediate targets towards net zero GHG emissions and to reporting on progress towards these. The changes to the guidance "acknowledge a wider range of net zero pathways that align with the temperature goals of the Paris agreement… This acknowledgment increases flexibility for banks with exposures to a range of markets and sectors to manage targets and transition across their balance sheet", the NZBA said. The alliance also intends to further support members, including around sectoral engagement and to help members understand new and emerging practices and approaches. "Over 100 member banks have already set independent sectoral targets using net zero by 2050 1.5°C pathways. There is nothing in the adopted changes that would cause them to move away from this. 1.5°C remains the guiding star", an NZBA spokesperson told Argus . But the alliance noted that in recent years "the external landscape for banks has rapidly changed". The amended framework recognises that "net zero transitions in the real economy are progressing at different speeds across sectors and regions and that regulatory requirements for climate risk and disclosure have increased in some jurisdictions", the spokesperson said. Several large US banks exited the initiative earlier this year , days ahead of US President Donald Trump's return to the White House. Netherlands-based, sustainability-focused Triodos Bank today said that it would leave the NZBA, as "the new guidelines fall short of the needed urgency to align loans and investments portfolios" with the 1.5°C goal. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UN carbon market advances on leakage, baseline issues

25/04/15

UN carbon market advances on leakage, baseline issues

Berlin, 15 April (Argus) — The UN's climate arm the UNFCCC has further refined rules relating to greenhouse gas (GHG) leakage and emissions reduction baselines for generating credits under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm). The mechanism's methodological expert panel drew up a draft standard on addressing GHG leakage at its fifth meeting last week, clarifying definitions such as "positive" and "negative" leakage, the "activity boundary" and "controlled" sources of GHG. The standard clarifies that the avoidance or minimisation of leakage only applies to negative leakage, even while avoidance of leakage is not possible in all instances. The standard will apply to both emission reductions and removals, and will focus on project-level activities, with a future version to address larger-scale activities such as national crediting programmes. And a draft standard on setting the baseline against which emissions reductions are measured, to prevent over-crediting, outlined the importance of ensuring that the downward adjusted historical baseline of emissions is at least as low as the conservative business-as-usual scenario. The panel proposed future regular revisions of the standard to allow for advances in best available technology, or for mitigation actions implemented at larger and therefore more cost-efficient scales. The panel also suggested some guidance may be needed to determine the scenario for certain types of carbon removal activities. The two draft standards will be put to the Pacm regulator — the supervisory body of the mechanism's governing Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement — for adoption. The panel was set up in early 2024 after countries at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in December 2023 threw out the supervisory body's proposals for the mechanism. The panel at its meeting also made progress on the concept of "suppressed demand", which must be taken into account by the Pacm to allow some increase in emissions to enable a host country's socio-economic development. It agreed on the conservative level of 1,000kWh/per capita to "minimise" over-crediting. The panel also progressed on addressing the non-permanence of emissions reductions, with a focus on instances of late, incomplete or missing monitoring reports, deciding on appropriate notification timing and relevant consequences. And it continued work on revising methodologies from the Pacm's predecessor, the clean development mechanism (CDM). The Pacm's first credits will be from transitioned CDM projects. But from next year, all Pacm credits must adhere to their own methodologies. The panel will next meet at the end of May. Stakeholders planning to propose new methodologies and methodological tools for consideration at that meeting must submit them by 21 April. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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