Temperature likely to exceed 1.5°C limit by 2028: WMO

Market: Emissions
05/06/24

There is an 80pc likelihood that the average global temperature across one of the next five years will breach the 1.5°C goal of the Paris climate agreement, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today.

The Paris agreement seeks to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. Climate scientists use a time period of 1850-1900 as a pre-industrial baseline. But shorter-term warming, over a year or so, "does not equate to a permanent breach" of the Paris agreement goal, the WMO said.

The chance of one of the next five years breaching the 1.5°C goal "has risen steadily since 2015, when such a chance was close to zero", the WMO said.

It is also very likely that one of the next five years — 2024-28 — will be the hottest on record, with an 86pc chance of this happening, the organisation added. The warmest year on record was last year, at 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels.

There is also a 47pc chance that the global temperature average over the entire period of 2024-28 will surpass the 1.5°C limit, the WMO said. The likelihood of this happening over 2023-27 was at 32pc.

In a separate report today, EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus confirmed that last month was the warmest May on record globally. The average temperature for May was 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the 11th consecutive month at or higher than 1.5°C above that baseline, Copernicus said. The global average temperature for the past 12 months — June 2023-May 2024 — is the highest on record, at 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average, Copernicus data show.

"The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C will be won or lost in the 2020s," UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said today, in a speech marking World Environment Day. "It's climate crunch time," he added.

Guterres spoke ahead of the G7 summit, set for 13-15 June in southern Italy. The G7 countries are Italy — which holds the presidency this year — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. G7 finance ministers placed climate firmly on the agenda in a communique released after their meeting in late May.

By Georgia Gratton

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03/04/25

New tariffs could upend US tallow imports

New York, 3 April (Argus) — New US tariffs on nearly all foreign products could deter further imports of beef tallow, a fast-rising biofuel feedstock and food ingredient that had until now largely evaded President Donald Trump's efforts to reshape global trade. Tallow was the most used feedstock for US biomass-based diesel production in January for the first month ever, with consumption by pound rising month to month despite sharp declines in actual biorefining and in use of competing feedstocks. The beef byproduct benefits from US policies, including a new federal tax credit known as "45Z", that offer greater subsidies to fuel derived from waste than fuel derived from first-generation crops. Much of that tallow is sourced domestically, but the US also imported more than 880,000t of tallow last year, up 29pc from just two years earlier. The majority of those imports last year came from Brazil, which until now has faced a small 0.43¢/kg (19.5¢/lb) tariff, and from Australia, which was exempt from any tallow-specific tariffs under a free trade agreement with US. But starting on 5 April, both countries will be subject to at least the new 10pc charge on foreign imports. There are some carveouts from tariffs for certain energy products, but animal fats are not included. Some other major suppliers — like Argentina, Uruguay, and New Zealand — will soon have new tariffs in place too, although tallow from Canada is for now unaffected because it is covered by the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. Brazil tallow shipments to the US totaled around 300,000t in 2024, marking an all-time high, but tallow shipments during the fourth quarter of 2024 fell under the 2023 levels as uncertainty about future tax policy slowed buying interest. Feedstock demand in general in the US has remained muted to start this year because of poor biofuel production margins, and that has extended to global tallow flows. Tallow suppliers in Brazil for instance were already experiencing decreased interest from US producers before tariffs. Brazil tallow prices for export last closed at $1,080/t on 28 March, rising about 4pc year-to-date amid support from the 45Z guidance and aid from Brazil's growing biodiesel industry, which is paying a hefty premium for tallow compared to exports. While the large majority of Brazilian tallow exports end up in the US, Australian suppliers have more flexibility and could send more volume to Singapore instead if tariffs deter US buyers. Export prices out of Australia peaked this year at $1,185/t on 4 March but have since trended lower to last close at $1,050/t on 1 April. In general, market participants say international tallow suppliers would have to drop offers to keep trade flows intact. Other policy shifts affect flows Even as US farm groups clamored for more muscular foreign feedstock limits over much of the last year, tallow had until now largely dodged any significant restrictions. Recent US guidance around 45Z treats all tallow, whether produced in the US or shipped long distances to reach the US, the same. Other foreign feedstocks were treated more harshly, with the same guidance providing no pathway at all for road fuels from foreign used cooking oil and also pinning the carbon intensity of canola oil — largely from Canada — as generally too high to claim any subsidy. But tariffs on major suppliers of tallow to the US, and the threat of additional charges if countries retaliate, could give refiners pause. Demand could rise for domestic animal fats or alternatively for domestic vegetable oils that can also be refined into fuel, especially if retaliatory tariffs cut off global markets for US farm products like soybean oil. There is also risk if Republicans in the Trump administration or Congress reshape rules around 45Z to penalize foreign feedstocks. At the same time, a minimum 10pc charge for tallow outside North America is a more manageable price to pay compared to other feedstocks — including a collection of charges amounting to a possible 69.5pc tax on Chinese used cooking oil. And if the US sets biofuel blend mandates as high as some oil and farm groups are pushing , strong demand could leave producers with little choice but to continue importing at least some feedstock from abroad to continue making fuel. Not all US renewable diesel producers will be equally impacted by tariffs either. Diamond Green Diesel operates Gulf Coast biorefineries in foreign-trade zones, which allow companies to avoid tariffs on foreign inputs for products that are ultimately exported. Biofuel producers in these zones could theoretically refine foreign tallow, claim a 45Z subsidy, and avoid feedstock tariffs as long as they ship the fuel abroad. Jurisdictions like the EU and UK, where sustainable aviation fuel mandates took effect this year, are attractive destinations. And there is still strong demand from the US food sector, with edible tallow prices in Chicago up 18pc so far this year. Trump allies, including his top health official, have pushed tallow as an alternative to seed oils. By Cole Martin and Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

03/04/25

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03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Article 6 credits 'could provide CBAM cost flexibility'

02/04/25

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02/04/25

Article 6 credits 'could provide CBAM cost flexibility'

Lisbon, 2 April (Argus) — Allowing the use of credits issued under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement for compliance with the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) could provide flexibility for developing countries that lack the capacity to set up their own carbon pricing systems in response to the measure, delegates at a conference in Lisbon, Portugal, heard today. The CBAM regulation provides for a carbon price already paid on a product in its country of origin to be deducted from CBAM costs, providing an incentive for countries importing products covered by the measure to the EU to introduce equivalent carbon pricing systems. But developing countries often lack the capacity to enact such policies, the chief sustainability and innovation officer at ACT Group, Federico di Credico, told delegates, and allowing the use of Article 6 credits for compliance could provide an alternative. This could in one form take place implicitly, di Credico said, if CBAM liabilities are adjusted down in relation to pricing systems that themselves allow some compliance using Article 6 credits. An example of this is Singapore, where 5pc of the country's carbon tax can be offset through the purchase of Article 6 internationally traded mitigation outcomes (Itmos). A more direct inclusion of Article 6 credits for compliance could entail a calculation on a euro-for-euro basis, di Credico suggested, for example reducing a CBAM liability of €100 to €50 if the importer has purchased €50-worth of Article 6 credits. Using a tonne-for-tonne basis would not work because the CBAM is not volume based, he said. But the uncertainty surrounding Article 6 credits means that their inclusion would bring an added layer of complexity to the CBAM, Cedric de Meeus of cement producer Holcim said. Article 6 credits are not usable in the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which forms the reference price for the CBAM, he pointed out, while not all activities producing Article 6 credits would be equivalent to the deep decarbonisation being carried out by European industry. It remains unclear how the EU will take into account carbon prices in other jurisdictions for the purposes of the CBAM. The CBAM regulation includes the ability to credit a "carbon price… effectively paid in the country of origin" but does not define what falls within this term, and the implementing regulation that will provide further detail on the matter has not yet been tabled. Article 6 of the Paris deal provides for two carbon pricing mechanisms allowing countries to collaborate voluntarily to reduce their emissions. Article 6.2, which is already fully operational, produces Itmos through bilateral agreements on emissions reduction or removal projects, while Article 6.4 establishes the soon-to-be-implemented Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (Pacm), a UN-regulated global carbon crediting system. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Transition technology draws energy R&D spend: IEA

02/04/25

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02/04/25

Transition technology draws energy R&D spend: IEA

London, 2 April (Argus) — Public and corporate spending on energy research and development (R&D) is "trending upwards", with a focus on "low-emissions" technology, but venture capital investment in energy start-ups dropped last year, energy watchdog the IEA found. Government and corporate energy R&D spending increased to $50bn and over $160bn, respectively, in 2023 — the latest year for which full data are available, the IEA said. There are "early indications of continued growth in 2024", although the pace of growth has "slowed slightly" since 2022, it added. But "the momentum of investing in low-emissions energy technologies has been maintained", partly on the back of climate policy goals, the IEA noted. The share of "low-emissions" energy R&D spending has held at "roughly four-fifths of the global total" in recent years, the IEA said. It defines low-emissions energy as renewable power, grids and storage, energy efficiency, nuclear and "low-emissions fuels". Venture capital investments in energy start-ups totalled around $27bn in 2024, 23pc lower on the year, the IEA found. This reflects the "cyclical nature" of venture capital, as well as a drop in funding owed to inflation, but the trend "could have long-term negative impacts as innovators struggle to scale up high-potential technologies without access to affordable capital", the watchdog noted. The IEA also suggested that "the situation is compounded by uncertainties about political commitments to the climate policies that many start-ups depend on to drive demand". But venture capital financing rose in 2024 for start-ups focused on nuclear, synthetic fuels and carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), it found. CCUS and "novel CDR" — carbon removal — technologies have drawn more venture capital funding in recent years, and sector R&D "is being spurred on by private capital mobilised by carbon credits", the IEA said. There are multiple ways to capture and store CO2, but many are at very early stages, while most funding goes towards just two approaches — direct air capture and bioenergy with CCS, its report found. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

02/04/25

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02/04/25

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Senior figures in Australia's upstream gas sector have hit out at plans for intervention in the heavily regulated industry, as debate continues on how to best address domestic supply shortfalls later this decade. The federal Coalition in March announced National Gas Plan including a 50-100 PJ/yr (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) domestic reservation system aimed at forcing the three LNG exporters based in Queensland's Gladstone to direct more supply to the eastern states' market. But oversupplying the market to drive down prices would destroy the viability of smaller gas projects, Australian independent Beach Energy's chief executive Brett Woods said at a conference in Sydney on 1 April. The domestic-focused firm, which will export some LNG volumes via its Waitsia project in 2025, warns that such a move by the Peter Dutton-led opposition would reduce export incomes while harming Australia's international reputation. The volumes impacted by the policy could reach around 900,000-1.8mn t/yr. Expropriation of developed reserves is equivalent to breaking contracts with LNG buyers and with the foreign and local investors that the country needs for ongoing economic security, Woods said on 1 April. Domestic gas reservation systems put in place by the state governments of Western Australia (WA) and Queensland, designed to keep local markets well supplied, were "clearly supportable", Woods said, but only future supply should be subject to the regulations. LNG terminals, which represent about 70pc of eastern Australia's total gas consumption and shipped 24mn t in 2024 , should not be blamed for the failure of governments to expedite new supply and plan for Australia's gas future, head of Shell Australia Cecile Wake said in response to the Coalition's proposal. Shell's QGC business supplied 15pc of its volumes to the local grid, with the remainder shipped from its 8.5mn t/yr Queensland Curtis LNG project, Wake added. Canberra has moved to promote gas use as a transition fuel to firm renewable energy in line with its 2030 emissions reduction targets, but progress has been slow as reforming laws appear to be hampering development . The state governments, particularly in gas-poor Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), must recognise the need for locally-produced supply and streamline the approvals processes, especially environmental permits, executives said. But despite pleas for an end to years of interventionist policy — including the governing Labor party's measures to cap the price of domestic gas at A$12/GJ , Australia's fractured political environment and rising cost of living has sparked largely populist responses from its leaders. A so-called "hung" parliament is likely to result from the 3 May poll , with a variety of mainly left-leaning independents representing an anti-fossil fuel agenda expected to control the balance of power in Australia's parliament. LNG debate sharpens Debate on the causes of southern Australia's gas deficit has persisted, and the ironic outcome of underinvestment in gas supply could be LNG re-imports from Gladstone to NSW, Victoria and South Australia, making fracked coal-bed methane — liquefied in Queensland and regasified — a likely higher-emissions alternative to pipeline supply. Several developers are readying for this possibility , which is considered inevitable without action to increase supply in Victoria or NSW, increase winter storages or raise north-south pipeline capacity. Australian pipeline operator APA appears to have the most to lose out of the active firms in the gas sector. APA chief executive Adam Watson this week criticised plans for imports, because relying on LNG will set the price of domestic gas at a detrimental level, raise emissions and decrease reliability of supply, Watson said. The firm is planning to increase its eastern pipeline capacity by 25pc to bring new supplies from the Bass, Surat and Beetaloo basins to market. But investment certainty is needed or Australia will risk needing to subsidise coal-fired power for longer if sufficient gas is unavailable to back up wind and solar generators with peaking power, Watson said. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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