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Kazakh government hikes wholesale LPG prices

  • : LPG
  • 24/07/02

Astana has increased the cap on wholesale LPG prices in order to narrow losses for producers supplying the Kazakhstan market

The Kazakh government has increased the cap on wholesale LPG prices by 12pc to 45,158 tenge/t ($100.40/t) excluding value-added tax (VAT) from 1 July in order to reduce losses for producers selling on the domestic market.

Maximum retail autogas prices have also risen to 59–94 tenge/litre ($0.13–0.21/l) depending on the region. "We are talking about [a slight increase] of 5-8 tenge. Given that companies now have very limited opportunities for cross-subsidising this area of business at the expense of other activities, this is a necessary measure," energy minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said on 12 June.

The regulated price ceiling is much lower than the cost of LPG production so plants incur losses of 20,000-30,000 tenge/t and producers are reluctant to raise output, the energy ministry says. LPG demand rose by 400,000t, or 28pc, in Kazakhstan last year, driven by higher feedstock use at petrochemical firm KPI's 550,000 t/yr Atyrau propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plant and growing autogas sales. The government partially banned LPG exports in November 2023 for six months to prevent a domestic shortage, which was extended in May for a further six months.

Domestic LPG supplies are now largely sufficient, with shortages only occurring in west Kazakhstan recently after a flood washed away a section of the Uralsk-Atyrau highway that is used for deliveries from the Atyrau refinery, local market participants say. Kazakh LPG output rose by 50,000t on the year to 1.28mn t in January-May, while exports fell by 58,400t to 318,700t.

The government had planned to raise regulated wholesale prices by 10pc and retail prices by 12pc from 1 January. It also intended to gradually raise prices every six months until they reached 70,000 tenge/t excluding VAT — where they would achieve breakeven levels for producers. The wholesale price in Kazakhstan stood at 40,320 tenge/t excluding VAT as of 1 July. Regulated fuel prices were introduced on 6 January 2022 after the deregulation of autogas prices led to rates doubling in west Kazakhstan, prompting violent protests and the resignation of the government.

Kazakh LPG exports

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24/07/03

US services contract in June, signal broad weakening

US services contract in June, signal broad weakening

Houston, 3 July (Argus) — Economic activity in the US services sector contracted in June by the most since 2020 while a report earlier this week showed contraction in manufacturing, signaling a broad-based slowdown in the economy as the second quarter came to an end. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) registered 48.8 in June, down from 53.8 in May. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction for the services economy. The June services PMI "indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months," ISM said. "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment." The business activity/production index fell to 49.6 from 61.2. New orders fell by 6.8 points to 47.3. Employment fell by 1 point to 46.1. Monthly PMI reports can be volatile, but a services PMI above 49 over time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. "Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs," ISM said. The prices index fell by 1.8 points to 56.3, showing slowing but robust price gains. ISM's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June from 48.7 in May, ISM reported on 1 July. It was the third consecutive month of contraction and marked a 19th month of contraction in the past 20 months. Wednesday's weaker than expected ISM report, together with a Wednesday report showing initial jobless claims last week rose to their highest in two years, slightly increase the odds that the Federal Reserve may lower its target rate later this year after maintaining it at 23-year highs since last year in an effort to stem inflation. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oman's Duqm refinery on track to run above capacity


24/07/03
24/07/03

Oman's Duqm refinery on track to run above capacity

Dubai, 3 July (Argus) — Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm refinery is looking to operate at 10pc above nameplate capacity and is considering diversifying its product portfolio, according to its operator. Omani-Kuwaiti joint venture OQ8's chief executive David Bird told Argus the capacity expansion would be pursued in the near term, with some already opening up in coking and hydrocracker units. The 10pc crude capacity increase is "my COO's [key performance indicator] for this year and I think we all have very high confidence that we'll be able to sweat the assets further," Bird said. "We may even look at intermediate feedstocks and bring in VGOs and residues in order to load up these two conversion units." The $9bn refinery, which hit capacity in February, uses feedstock comprised of 65pc Kuwaiti crude and 35pc Omani crude. Bird said Duqm may add new products to its existing, middle distillates-focused, output of jet fuel, gasoil, naphtha and LPG. "We are looking at structuring, doing something with naphtha," he said. "We are evaluating either reformate or gasoline, which have already gone through feasibility and are now under stage-gate review to decide if we should pursue those investment decisions." Bird also pointed to possibilities in base oils, which he said will be needed "as long as things are moving." "The Middle East has a unique opportunity to capitalize on Group I and Group III base oils," he said, noting Duqm's proximity to growing demand markets in Africa. "If Duqm was to look at expanding capacity, which definitely would still be in middle-distillate oriented space, we would talk about another hydrocracker that might be orientated towards base oil," Bird said. Oman is also developing a petrochemical complex with Saudi Arabia's Sabic and Kuwaiti state-owned KPI, which will use some of the Duqm refinery's production as feedstock. Feasibility for the project has concluded and has been "intimately evaluated" along with a naphtha upgrade, and Bird described them as "very complimentary." Close eye on Europe Bird said that while there is a "huge thirst of our products right at our doorstep", Duqm cargoes are finding their way to destinations that were not previously envisaged. Around 45pc of Duqm's diesel goes to east Africa, but loadings for Europe have begun more recently. Duqm can make European grade winter-specification diesel and is on track to capitalise on demand during the switch from summer grade this year. "When it comes to winter-spec diesel, if the arbitrage opens we can supply that competitively versus anyone else," Bird said. "So we always have an eye on Europe but we're also going to make sure that we are active in markets that are closer to home." By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LPG industry urged to invest to build EU credibility


24/07/02
24/07/02

LPG industry urged to invest to build EU credibility

Tapping into funding for renewable fuels is seen as key for the industry, but investment decisions must not be made in haste, writes Matt Scotland London, 2 July (Argus) — The LPG industry has been urged to work more closely with the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other nascent renewable fuel sectors to establish bioLPG and renewable LPG and DME production plants as soon as possible. "It would be great if the LPG industry could embrace other renewable liquid fuels" as these often already have governmental backing and financing, Vertimass board adviser Neil Murphy told delegates at European LPG association Liquid Gas Europe's Congress in Lyon, France, over 18-20 June. US-based Vertimass aims to commercialise the conversion of ethanol into SAF, renewable diesel and renewable gasoline components. The LPG sector, in its efforts to develop renewable forms of LPG and DME, needs to move from "great intent" to the "earthiness of investment and putting plants down in the ground", Murphy said. Doing so will build credibility among policy makers, he said. But the sector was also warned about making hasty investments that turn out to be "mistakes", hurting the prospects for renewable LPG in the medium to long term. "The US saw huge failures in its early solar panel manufacturing efforts — billions of dollars were wasted. So, we can't advocate for things just to get steel in the ground, we need the steel in the ground to be successful," US start-up BioLPG LLC's chairman Kimbal Chen said. BioLPG LLC and Chicago-based research institute GTI Energy have jointly developed the "Cool LPG" process to convert biogas into bioLPG. Italian consortium Green LG Energy is adopting the technology to develop a pilot plant in Chicago and later a larger demonstration facility in Italy, chief executive Francesco Franchi told delegates. The Chicago facility could open before the end of this year and the Italian plant within the next two years. Once operational, the latter will "show policy makers and stakeholders that we can produce bioLPG, allowing us to secure funding and support to develop an industrial-scale plant", he said. Credibility was a core theme of the conference in Lyon as the industry continues to work to enshrine LPG and renewable alternatives in EU and national legislation. The question the sector needs to ask itself is how to make its proposals and voice credible to EU policy makers after the recent European Parliament elections, LGE president Audrey Galland said. France could play a vital role, as despite having a 10pc share of the European LPG market, it has a strong voice in Brussels, according to French LPG association FGL president Julie de Fazio. A growing recognition that electrification of heating will not be suitable in most rural areas, and that rural customers want to decarbonise, should benefit the LPG sector, she said. But it still needs "financial incentives and mandates" that encourage investment in renewable liquid gases, she said. Hearing the possibility for mandates in a positive rather than restrictive sense was "music to my ears", renewable DME company Dimeta's advocacy director Sophia Haywood said. Combining supportive mandates for renewable liquid gases at the same time as financial incentivisation could be key to unlocking growth, she said. Pragmatic shift? The recent parliamentary election could be a boon for the LPG industry, according to former EU MEP and UK member of the regulatory policy committee Daniel Dalton. The shift in power from centre-left to centre-right should result in "more pragmatic energy policy" that benefits the LPG sector, he told delegates. And the ascent of the cost-of-living and energy security issues up the EU's agenda should also lead to a "watering down of the hard edges" when it comes to the paths to meeting the EU's bold targets under its Green Deal. "You as an industry are well placed" in assisting the EU in its efforts to enhance energy security and lower energy costs, while also moving towards decarbonised renewable liquid gases, he said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Signs of stronger European propane market in 2H24


24/07/02
24/07/02

Signs of stronger European propane market in 2H24

Freer flowing transits at the Panama Canal have resulted in less surplus US supply arriving in Europe, tightening the spot market, write Efcharis Sgourou and Emma Reiss London, 2 July (Argus) — A bearish northwest European propane market in the first half of this year has come to an end with regional sellers' confidence slowly returning as supply tightness and demand begins to pick up. The propane large cargo cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp price moved minimally in January-June, with swings contained within a $100/t range despite crude gains owing to lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. The price fell to a low of $475.50/t on 8 January and hit a high of $569/t on 27 June — inversely to the typical seasonal pattern. Usual support from strong propane demand during the first quarter was largely absent after a mild winter, with record temperatures in January and February across Europe, capping heating use. Europe also benefited from shipping disruptions at the Panama Canal that forced US Gulf coast exports to reroute eastwards, freeing up more supply to sail the shorter distance to Europe. The possibility to tap US supply even when northwest European prices were not competitive compared with Asia-Pacific built a sense of strong security for buyers. But demand remained weak, even from the petrochemical sector, where operating rates at ethylene crackers rose to around 80pc from historically low levels of 60-70pc during hostilities in the Red Sea in February that threatened Mideast Gulf petrochemical imports. This was well below typical run rates of 80-90pc. Northwest European LPG imports from the US nevertheless surged in the first quarter as US LPG production continued to expand. Arrivals from the country stood at 487,000 t/month over January-June, while regional availability also improved, with exports from North Sea producers averaging 450,000 t/month, Kpler datashow — regional output was supported by lower natural gas prices. Regional sellers became increasingly fearful of a surplus of US propane arriving in Europe, while end-users hoped for lower prices and were subsequently willing to wait for offers to decline, creating something of a standoff. Demand stagnated further in the second quarter as the US-northwest Europe arbitrage shut firmly and US deliveries dried up, with shipments to Europe dropping below 400,000t in May. Shipping obstacles at the Panama Canal improved in the second quarter as its operator ACP increased the number of daily transits for July, reducing the likelihood of surplus US LPG coming to Europe this month. This has led to a tighter spot market and more bullish sentiment. Buyers are aware that demand in Asia, which dominates the attention of US sellers, is unlikely to slow after petrochemical demand recently picked up. The Chinese propane dehydrogenation sector continues to expand — three new plants opened in the first half of 2024 and four more are due to open in the second half, potentially lifting propane import demand by 6mn t/yr. Premiums yet to pull US supply European buyers will have to offer better netbacks compared with Asia to US sellers to attract supply. Physical large cargo prices are holding at robust premiums to paper, but have been insufficient to attract US tonnes. Simultaneously, the minimal premium for winter prices compared with summer makes stockbuilding ahead of winter financially painful, even without factoring in the premium for physical. Regional availability will also play a part, with supply vulnerable to shifts in natural gas prices. For now, the natural gas value remains well below propane and recent highs, but forward curves point to the potential for local supplies to tighten as upstream product is spiked into the natural gas stream and refiners once again turn to using their LPG as fuel. On top of this, the ban on Russian exports to Europe from December will lead to greater demand from eastern Europe for western LPG. A return to more usual seasonal chills would mean Europe facing a potentially difficult winter, and physical premiums soaring as the region fights with Asia for the necessary US supply. NWE propane import price, diff to paper US LPG exports to NWE, the Med US-Asia, US-NWE propane netbacks Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Precios de GLP en México van en aumento


24/07/01
24/07/01

Precios de GLP en México van en aumento

Mexico City, 1 July (Argus) — Los precios del gas LP (GLP) en México subieron a su punto más alto en tres meses por el aumento de precios del propano en EE. UU., y la tendencia podría continuar ya que las importaciones de la empresa estatal Pemex han aumentado este año por la reducción de la producción nacional. El precio máximo de venta al público de GLP en México del 30 de junio al 6 de julio aumentó semana a semana en 3pc a un promedio de Ps10.64/l ($2.22/USG), el precio máximo promedio más alto desde la semana del 3 al 9 de marzo, cuando fue de Ps10.73/l. La tendencia alcista podría continuar con el aumento de los precios internacionales del propano, a menudo un componente principal del GLP. Se prevé que los precios spot del propano en Mont Belvieu aumenten en 8pc a 68¢/USG en julio, comparado con 63¢/USG en julio de 2023, de acuerdo con la Administración de Información Energética de EE. UU. El pronóstico para julio también aumentaría respecto a la media prevista de 67¢/USG en junio. Esta previsión se basa en un aumento similar de las perspectivas de precio del crudo Brent, ya que los precios spot del propano suelen situartse entre los precios del crudo Brent y del gas natural Henry Hub. Además, se espera que los inventarios de propano de EE. UU. finalicen el tercer trimestre de 2024 en 82.3 millones de bl, lo que supone una disminución de 19pc respecto a los 102.2 millones de bl a finales del tercer trimestre de 2023, según los mismos datos. Sin embargo, el Gobierno mexicano podría amortiguar los picos de precios internacionales con los controles de precios, que se lanzaron por primera vez en agosto de 2021 bajo un decreto de emergencia de seis meses, y más tarde se extendieron indefinidamente. Alrededor de 60pc de la demanda de GLP de México de más de 278,000 b/d proviene del sector residencial, según los datos de la Secretaría de Energía (Sener). Las importaciones de Pemex aumentaron 38pc hasta los 83,000 b/d de GLP en mayo año tras año, y aumentaron en 10pc comparado con abril, según los datos de la empresa. El aumento de las importaciones se debió a la reducción de la producción nacional, ya que la producción de GLP de Pemex, principalmente procedente del procesamiento de gas anterior, cayó en 22pc a 83,300 b/d en mayo, frente a los 106,500 b/d en mayo de 2023. Se trata de la producción más baja desde diciembre de 2022, cuando Pemex produjo 79,500 b/d de GLP, según muestran los datos de la empresa. Por el contrario, las importaciones de GLP de empresas del sector privado han disminuido este año, ya que Pemex ha ampliado su participación en el mercado nacional de GLP en los últimos años, impulsada por las políticas nacionalistas de energía del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Según los datos de Sener, las importaciones de las empresas del sector privado se redujeron en 11pc a 115,200 b/d de GLP entre enero y mayo, frente a los 129,200 b/d del mismo periodo de 2023. Pemex espera cerrar 2024 con una cuota de 63pc en las ventas nacionales de GLP, por encima de 62pc en 2023 y 50pc en 2020, lo que fue el más bajo de su historia, según los datos de la empresa. Las empresas del sector privado comenzaron a importar GLP a México en 2016. Nuevo gobierno genera incertidumbre La contundente victoria del actual partido en el poder Morena en las elecciones presidenciales y legislativas de México del 2 de junio añadió incertidumbre a los mercados de energía del país, ya que allanó el camino para el posible restablecimiento del monopolio legal de Pemex. La presidenta electa Claudia Sheinbaum no ha comentado sobre el mercado de GLP de México, pero apoya las políticas de energía nacionalistas de López Obrador. Mientras tanto, sigue sin estar claro si la empresa minorista de GLP estatal mexicana Gas Bienestar recibirá más apoyo, después de fallar en los objetivos de expansión trazados por el gobierno. Gas Bienestar solo opera en nueve de las 16 alcaldías de Ciudad de México casi tres años después de su lanzamiento. La empresa esperaba operar en toda la ciudad y en los estados de México, Tabasco y Veracruz para finales de 2022, pero los altos costos operativos y logísticos lo han impedido, según las fuentes. El gobierno fundó Gas Bienestar en agosto de 2021 para distribuir y vender GLP a un "precio justo" utilizando el suministro de Pemex para competir con el sector privado, según López Obrador. La empresa no divulga públicamente sus informes operativos, y Pemex ha declarado que Gas Bienestar no está obligado a responder a las solicitudes de transparencia. Por Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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