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Iran gathers envoys to lay ground for Israel response

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 24/08/05

Iran's foreign ministry on Monday convened a meeting of foreign ambassadors and representatives to lay down a "legal case" for retaliation it is planning against Israel for the assassination of Palestinian group Hamas' chief in Tehran last week, according to a source with knowledge of the matter.

Iran's acting foreign minister Ali Bagheri-Kani "was mostly trying to lay down the case that would justify Iran's response [to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh]," the source said. "He said the response would be definite and decisive, but did not say when it would come or how."

The meeting came as numerous countries, in the Mideast Gulf and elsewhere, pressed on with round-the-clock efforts to try to contain the situation.

Haniyeh was killed on 31 July while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, the day prior. State television had shown him present at the ceremony. Israel has not explicitly acknowledged its involvement. But Iranian officials have little doubt that Israel was behind the hit, particularly given rising tensions emanating from the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

"All the evidence and indications clearly show that the Zionist regime is behind this vile and despicable act," foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said today at his weekly press briefing, referring to Israel.

Jordan's foreign minister Ayman Safadi was in Tehran on Sunday, 4 August, to discuss escalating regional tensions with Bagheri-Kani.

"We want our region to live in security, peace and stability, and want the escalation to end," Safadi said.

Prior to the visit, Safadi had said Jordan would not accept being dragged into the escalation.

"If there is any escalation, our first priority is to protect Jordan and the safety of Jordanians," he said. "Anyone who wants to violate our skies, we will confront that."

Relations between Amman and Tehran have soured since Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel on 13 April, a response to an Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Jordan, which borders Israel, helped shoot down at least some of the more than 300 Iranian missiles and drones that had entered its airspace, headed for Israeli targets.

When and how?

Iranian officials are adamant that the country will retaliate for the assassination in Tehran, and will do so in a serious manner.

"When the Zionists receive a strong and decisive response, they will know that they made a mistake in their calculations," Islamic Revolutionary Guard commander in chief Hossein Salami said today.

There has been no clear indication from Iran about when it will carry out any retaliation, or what form this would take.

"The Zionist entity will receive a strike at the appropriate place and time to understand that what it has done is foolish," Salami said.


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Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports


25/04/25
25/04/25

Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports

Dubai, 25 April (Argus) — Plans for a significant increase in natural gas production in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region over the next 18 months could not only help address the country's chronic power shortages but also enable Baghdad to boost its oil exports. The Pearl Petroleum consortium — which comprises Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas, Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum, Austria's OMV, Hungary's Mol, and Germany's RWE — aims to increase gas production capacity in Kurdistan to 825mn ft³/d by the end of next year, representing a more than 50pc increase from current output. The plan involves expanding the capacity of the region's sole gas-producing field, Khor Mor, to 750mn ft³/d by the first quarter of 2026, and adding up to 75mn ft³/d from the Chemchemal field by the end of 2026. According to a source at Pearl, the development of Chemchemal is a key priority for the companies, as it is believed to have reservoirs comparable to those of Khor Mor. Under a 2019 agreement, the additional gas from the expansion project will be sold to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for a 20-year term, which should help eliminate the region's frequent power outages, particularly during peak summer months when demand for air conditioning is high. The Kurdistan region will also be well-positioned to supply any excess gas to the rest of Iraq. The federal government in Baghdad had previously approved a plan to import approximately 100mn ft³/d of gas from Khor Mor to power a 620MW plant in Kirkuk province, but no formal agreement has been signed to date. "The federal ministry of electricity and Crescent Petroleum have already met to finalise the agreement, which is ready for signature and awaiting implementation," the Pearl source said. "The infrastructure needed to support the sale of this quantity of gas is also in place." The plan has faced delays partly because of Iran's long-standing influence over Iraq and the potential impact such an agreement with the Kurdistan region could have on Baghdad's reliance on Iranian gas and power. However, the revival of US president Donald Trump's ‘maximum pressure' campaign against Tehran is forcing Baghdad to get serious about seeking alternative energy sources, with the Kurdistan region emerging as a viable option. Crude Export Boost Formalising the deal to import Kurdish gas would allow Baghdad to allocate more oil for export, as it would reduce the need to burn crude for power generation. Argus estimates that Iraq typically burns between 50,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d of crude in its power stations, depending on the season, and has recently increased imports of gasoil for power generation. By the time Iraqi Kurdistan has fully ramped up its additional gas capacity, Iraq's Opec+ crude output target will be 200,000 b/d higher than it is today, based on the group's latest production plans. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Water levels delay Tennessee River lock reopening


25/04/24
25/04/24

Water levels delay Tennessee River lock reopening

Houston, 24 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will delay the reopening of the Tennessee River's Wilson Lock by three weeks after high floodwater disrupted repair plans. The Wilson Lock is now planned to reopen in mid-June or July, the Corps said this week. The lock's main chamber has been closed since September after severe cracks were found in the structure. The Corps initiated evacuation procedures so personnel and equipment could be removed before any water entered the dewatered lock and ruined repairs after high water appeared too close to the lock's edge. The water did not crest above the temporary barrier the Corps installed to keep water out. Delays at the lock averaged around 10 days as of 24 April, according to the Corps. Barge carriers fees have been in place for each barge that must pass through the auxiliary chamber of the lock since 25 September, when the lock first closed. Restricted barge movement placed upward pressure on fertilizer prices in surrounding areas as well. The lock still requires structural repairs to the main chamber gates, including the replacement of the pintle components, the Corps said. This is the fourth opening delay the Corps have issued for the Wilson Lock, with the prior opening dates being in November , then April and then in June . The Wilson Lock will enter its eighth month of repairs next month. By Meghan Yoyotte and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Investment funds slash net long position on Ice TTF


25/04/24
25/04/24

Investment funds slash net long position on Ice TTF

London, 24 April (Argus) — Investment funds have slashed their TTF net long positions on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) nearly in half so far in April, with commercial undertakings' net long position conversely rising. Investment funds' net long position on Ice dropped to 86TWh in the week ending 17 April, well below the 146TWh at the end of March, and was as low as 73TWh on 11 April ( see net positions graph ). The near-halving of their net position was driven entirely by the closing of longs, which dropped to 308TWh by 17 April from 383TWh on 28 March. In contrast, shorts dropped by only 16TWh in the same period, the exchange's most recent Commitments of Traders report shows. This left investment funds' total amount of open positions at 529TWh by 17 April, well down from 620TWh on 28 March. Global commodity market turmoil in recent weeks following the US' ‘liberation day' on which president Donald Trump announced tariffs on nearly every country may have prompted funds to reduce their exposure to gas market. The resulting fallout in global commodity, stock, bond and currency markets would have hit multi-strategy hedge funds in particular, which had exposure to many different assets, some of which are thought to be among the largest players in the overall investment fund category of participant. Wider macroeconomic factors rather than market fundamentals have driven the TTF this month, according to many traders, with daily TTF movements frequently having tracked wider moves across global macroeconomic indicators such as the S&P 500 index. In contrast with investment funds' sharply reduced net long position, commercial undertakings — the other largest category of market participant, mostly comprising firms with retail portfolios — more than doubled their net long position to 85TWh on 17 April from 33TWh on 28 March. This means commercial undertakings' and investment funds' net positions now have nearly exactly converged, with the difference between them having been as wide as nearly 350TWh as recently as early February. Commercial undertakings first flipped to a net long position in the week ending 28 February, and the net long has steadily increased every week since then. While investment funds significantly reduced their overall exposure to the TTF, commercial undertakings increased both their long and short positions in April. Total shorts rose by about 34TWh between 28 March and 17 April to 1.055PWh, while longs soared by 86TWh to 1.140PWh. This leaves their total open positions at about 2.195PWh, more than quadruple investment funds' 529TWh. The data could suggest that commercial undertakings took advantage of hedge funds unwinding their long positions, leading to a reallocation of about 90TWh of liquidity from speculative positions to risk reduction contracts. The large majority of commercial undertakings' overall open positions are risk reduction contracts, which total 1.457PWh out of aggregate open positions of 2.195PWh, or 66pc. In contrast, investment funds hold zero risk reduction contracts, making it likely that all of their interest is speculative. Commercial undertakings' risk reduction shorts increased only by about 7TWh between 28 March and 17 April to 747TWh, but longs soared by 92TWh over the same period to an all-time high of 710TWh. As recently as 28 February, risk reduction longs were as low as 550TWh, meaning an overall increase of nearly 200TWh in less than two months. The only other time in recent history when risk reduction longs increased at such a rapid pace was in 2018, when they jumped from 445TWh on 30 July to a peak of 644TWh on 15 October ( see risk reduction graph ). One explanation for such a distinct increase in risk reduction longs while shorts remained roughly even could simply be that utilities have purchased winter contracts instead of the more usual practice of hedging physical gas bought for summer injection by selling winter contracts. Typically, summer prices are below winter thanks to lower seasonal consumption, so a utility would buy the summer to inject the gas and sell the winter for when it will be withdrawn, locking in a profit margin. But because summer prices this year remained above winter, there was no commercial incentive to lock in a negative spread, meaning utilities may simply have opted to buy winter contracts to cover their expected demand. But since the turn of April, TTF summer-month prices have increased their discount to the front-winter, providing more of an incentive to inject gas. By Brendan A'Hearn Net positions on ICE TTF TWh Commercial undertakings' risk reduction positions TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eni cuts capex on macro headwinds, tariff uncertainty


25/04/24
25/04/24

Eni cuts capex on macro headwinds, tariff uncertainty

London, 24 April (Argus) — Italy's Eni has cut its spending plans for this year in response to macroeconomic headwinds, uncertainty around trade tariffs and a lower oil price outlook. The company is planning a series of "mitigation measures" worth over €2bn [$2.28bn], a key element of which is a reduction in 2025 capex to below €8.5bn from previous guidance of €9bn. Eni now expects net capex — which takes into account acquisitions and asset sales — to come in below €6bn this year, compared with its initial plan of €6.5bn-7bn. Other savings will come from "mitigating actions" around its portfolio, operating costs and "other cash initiatives", the firm said. Eni's plan reflects a tariff-driven deterioration in the outlook for the global economy and, in turn, global oil demand and oil prices. The company has revised its Brent crude price assumption for 2025 down to $65/bl from $75/bl previously. It has also lowered its refining margin indicator assumption for the year to $3.5/bl from $4.7/bl. The lower oil price assumption has not changed the company's upstream production forecast — it still expects 2025 output to average 1.7mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But Eni's production in the first quarter was only 1.65mn boe/d, 5pc lower than the same period last year. The firm's gas production took the biggest hit, falling by 9pc on the year to 4.5bn ft³/d (861,000 boe/d) as a result of divestments and natural decline at mature fields. Liquids output fell by 1pc year on year to 786,000 boe/d. Eni reported a profit of €1.17bn for January-March, 3pc lower than the same period last year. Underlying profit— which strips out inventory valuation effects and other one off-items — fell by 11pc on the year to €1.41bn. Eni said the fall in profits was mainly due to lower oil prices. The company also had to contend with weaker refining margins and throughputs, as well as a continuing downturn in the European chemicals sector. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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